National Survey Results 2020 General Election Likely Voters Political Environment, Trends & Analysis
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1 National Survey Results General Election Likely Voters Political Environment, Trends & Analysis John McLaughlin On the web
2 Part One Political Environment 2
3 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 11/18 12/18 Direction: United States Time Series 8 Right Direction Wrong Track
4 41 Direction: United States 52 Right Direction Wrong Track DK/Ref. 7 East Midwest 52 South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 8 88 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump 87 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic 52 Under Over Married Single 32 Men Women R W 4
5 Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama OR Change direction and move away from the polices of President Obama Time Series Continue Change Direction
6 Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama OR Change direction and move away from the policies of President Obama Continue Obama Policies Change Direction 12 DK/Ref. Cont. Change East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols. - Change Direction - Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 12 8 Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 81 7 Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP 84 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 8 9 Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican 84 Democrat 81 Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree 46 College Graduate White African- American 14 Hispanic Under Over Married 51 Single 35 Men Women
7 Job Rating: Donald Trump Time Series Approve Disapprove
8 48 Job Rating: Donald Trump APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. 1 App. Disapp. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump - Disapprove Trump - Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 97 3 Unfavorable Trump 9 91 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 91 9 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 79 Moderate Conservative 8 No College Degree 48 College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single 58 Men Women
9 Opinion: Donald Trump Time Series Favorable Unfavorable
10 Opinion: Donald Trump FAV. Very Smwt UNFAV. Smwt Very NO OPIN. 4 Fav. Unfav. East Midwest South West 57 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump 88 9 Disapprove Trump 3 95 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump - Unfavorable Trump - Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 8 89 Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 8 88 Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate 34 Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White 48 African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men 47 Women 38 58
11 1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 /14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2//17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 11/18 12/18 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress Time Series Democrat Republican Undecided
12 GOP Def. Prob. Lean DEM Def. Prob. Lean UND. Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress GOP DEM. UND. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 83 8 Approve Trump 8 11 Disapprove Trump 9 81 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP - - Vote Cong. 18 DEM - - Vote Cong. 18 UND - - Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White 51 African- American Hispanic Under Over Married 51 9 Single Men Women
13 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress Time Series Approve Disapprove 42 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 11/18 12/18 13
14 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. 8 App. Disapp. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND 24 Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men 46 Women 38 14
15 1/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 11/16 12/16 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 11/18 12/18 Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services or a larger government with many services? Time Series Smaller Larger
16 52 Job Rating: Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services or a larger Donald Trump government with many services? Smaller Gov't Larger Gov't DK/Ref. Smaller Larger East Midwest South 52 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority 42 Favorable Trump 69 Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate 45 Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men 59 Women
17 Republican Primary for President 11/18 12/18 E MW S W Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp DJT Women Men White AA HISP Donald Trump John Kasich Jeff Flake Mitt Romney Undecided
18 Democratic Primary for President 11/18 12/18 E MW S W Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Women Men White AA HISP Joe Biden Michelle Obama Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Oprah Winfrey Beto O Rourke n/a Cory Booker Michael Bloomberg Mark Zuckerberg
19 Democratic Primary for President Cont. 11/18 12/18 E MW S W Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Women Men White AA HISP Andrew Cuomo Deval Patrick Kirsten Gillibrand Eric Holder Tim Kaine John Hicken Looper Bill De Blasio Howard Schultz Amy Klobucher N/A Michael Avenatti Undecided
20 Part Two Issue Analysis
21 Most Important Issue 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 9/18 /18 12/18 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp DJT Men Wo- Men CONOMIC Improving the conomy Jobs/Unemployment Wasteful Gov t pending Reduce Budget/Deficit Hold Line/Taxes OCIAL Protect Medicare Reform Healthcare Improving Education ECURITY Fix Immigration Nat l Sec./Terror Defeat/Destroy ISIS ONESTY/ NTEGRITY/D.C K./REFUSED
22 Current Opinion of the U.S. Economy Time Series NOT RECESSION 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 12/18 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Men Women Getting Better Getting Worse RECESSION Getting Better Getting Worse D.K./REFUSED GETTING BETTER GETTING WORSE D.K./REFUSED Net Diff
23 As a result of President Trump and Congress tax cut plan, did your taxes go up, go down, or remain about the same? Up Down Same Up Down Same East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 33 9 Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women
24 From what you have seen or read, have the Democrats and the media produced any evidence that President Trump had the 16 Presidential election fixed by the Russians? Yes No Unsure Yes No East Midwest South 49 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 8 83 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 81 Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 83 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 11 8 Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate 29 Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Woman
25 Is the Democrats campaign to impeach President Trump a partisan political ploy to stop President Trump? Yes No Unsure Yes No East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 84 5 Approve Trump 8 8 Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority 81 9 Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 82 7 Unfavorable Trump 46 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 82 7 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 84 7 Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND Republican 82 8 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate 46 Conservative 78 9 No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic 48 Under Over Married Single Men Woman 46 25
26 Part Three Social Media Usage 26
27 Do you follow Donald Trump on Twitter, Instagram and/or have you like his page on Facebook, meaning his posts show up on your newsfeed? - Time Series- 35 TOTAL Follow/Twitter Like/Facebook Follow/Instagram /17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 11/18 12/
28 Do you follow Donald Trump on Twitter, Instagram and/or have you like his page on Facebook, meaning his posts show up on your newsfeed? FOLLOW Facebook Twitter Instagram NONE October 18 Follow None East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong. 18 UND 8 92 Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American 8 Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women
29 From the following list, which social media networks do you use? Total Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Under 55 Over 55 Men Women Facebook Instagram Twitter Pinterest Google Linked-In Snapchat WhatsApp Reddit None Tumblr Other Periscope
30 Likely General Election Voter Profile Party Total Age Total Race Total Republican White 71 Democrat African American 12 Independent Hispanic 11 Ideology Asian 4 Liberal 32 Over Gender Moderate 33 Male 47 Conservative 35 Female 53
31 New York Office 566 South Route 3 Blauvelt, NY D.C./Virginia Office 919 Prince Street Alexandria, VA
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Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778
ADDING RYAN TO TICKET DOES LITTLE FOR ROMNEY IN NEW JERSEY. Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds more than half of likely voters not influenced by choice
Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778
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Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, September 20, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY
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Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, 14, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
TIME FOR A WOMAN IN THE OVAL OFFICE? NEW JERSEYANS AGREE COUNTRY IS READY
Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778
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