Virginia s 7 th Congressional District Republican Primary Survey Analysis

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1 Virginia s 7 th Congressional District Republican Primary Survey Analysis By: John McLaughlin

2 1. Methodology 2. Primary Ballot Analysis 3. General Election Analysis 4. Issue Analysis 5. Media Analysis 6. Voter Profile Presentation Outline 2

3 Methodology This post-election survey of political attitudes was conducted among 400 Republican Primary election voters between June 14 th and 15 th, 2014 in Virginia s 7 th Congressional District. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in a districtwide primary election. 25% of all interviews were conducted via cell phone. The accuracy of the sample of 400 likely Republican Primary Election voters is within +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. 3

4 GOP Primary Ballot: Cantor vs. Brat 5/29/14 6/15/14 CANTOR BRAT FIRM UNDECIDED NET Cantor Brat 4

5 E.C. D.B. E.C. D.B. E.C. D.B. TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life Voted at least 1 GOP primary Republican Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative Smwt. Cons Very Cons

6 As you are aware, very few people actually vote in primary elections. Do you normally vote in primaries? If, so do you normally vote in the Republican Primary of the Democratic Primary? If this was the first time you voted in a primary just say so Normally Republican Primary Normally Democratic 1st Time Voting in Primary Primary DK/Ref 6

7 GOP DEM 1 st GOP DEM 1 st GOP DEM 1 st TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life Voted at least 1 GOP primary Republican Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative Smwt. Cons Very Cons

8 When did you decide how you were going to vote in the Primary Election for Congress? Was it? Before Memorial Day 2 Weeks Ago The Week before the The Weekend before the Primary Primary On Primary Day DK/Ref 8

9 MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of TOTAL Obama Approve North Obama Disapprove South Gen. Ballot DEM Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Big Three Counties Vote Brat Rest of District Vote Trammell Voted Cantor Vote UND Voted Brat FNC Reg Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Norm. Vote GOP Prime Cons. Radio Not Reg Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree Economic Tea Party Disagree Social Pro-Life Republican Pro-Choice Non-Republican Democrat Independent Lib./Mod Conservative Smwt. Cons Very Cons

10 MDW 2 weeks 1 Week Weekend Day Of Single Married Protestant Catholic Born Again Yes Born Again No White Non-White Under Over Men Women Always/Usually Cell Equal Cell/Landline Always/Usually Landline Voted at least 1 GOP primary Voted at least 2 GOP primaries Voted Any Dem. Primary Never Voted Primary

11 Which one of the following issues is most important to you when deciding your vote for Congress? Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men ECONOMIC Economy/Jobs Gov t Spending/Debt Taxes SOCIAL Healthcare Immigration Education Soc. Sec./Medicare Abortion Gay Marriage NAT L SEC./TERROR SOMETHING ELSE DK/Refused

12 Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? APPROVE Strongly Smwt. DISAPPROVE Smwt. Strongly DK/REF. 12

13 App. Disapp. App. Disapp. App. Disapp. TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP 4 96 Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat 7 93 Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime 8 93 Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree 7 92 Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life 9 89 Voted at least 1 GOP primary Republican 5 94 Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 8 92 Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat 97 3 Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative 5 94 Smwt. Cons Very Cons

14 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress DEMO- CRAT Definitely Probably Lean REPUB- LICAN Definitely Probably Lean UND. 14

15 DEM GOP UND DEM GOP UND DEM GOP UND TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life Voted at least 1 GOP primary Republican Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative Smwt. Cons Very Cons

16 Ballot: U.S. Congress (Brat (R) vs. Trammell (D)) BRAT Definitely Probably Lean TRAM- MELL Definitely Probably Lean UND. 16

17 D.B. J.T. UND D.B. J.T. UND D.B. J.T. UND TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life Voted at least 1 GOP primary Republican Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative Smwt. Cons Very Cons

18 Do you favor or oppose the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? FAVOR Strong Smwt OPPOSE Smwt Strong DK/REF. 18

19 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove 3 95 Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP 4 94 Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat 5 94 Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor 6 91 Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime 7 91 Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member 3 97 Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree 4 94 Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life 7 92 Voted at least 1 GOP primary 9 89 Republican 4 95 Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries 6 91 Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative 5 94 Smwt. Cons Very Cons

20 How often do you watch Fox News Channel? Would you say Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men REGULARLY Everyday Almost Everyday Couple Times/Week NOT REGULARLY Rarely Never DK/REFUSED

21 How often do you listen to conservative talk radio shows like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck? Would you say Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men REGULARLY Everyday Almost Everyday Couple Times/Week NOT REGULARLY Once a Week Rarely Never DK/REFUSED

22 Thinking about the Tea Party, which one of the following statements best describes you and your opinions? /29/14 6/15/14 TEA PARTY MEMBER/PARTICIPATED AGREE WITH DO NOT AGREE WITH DK/REFUSED NET TEA-PARTY Tea-Party Member/Have Attended Event Not Member/Not Attend But Agree w/ Issues/Priorities DO NOT AGREE W/ TEA PARTY DK/Ref 22

23 Mem. Agree Disagree Mem. Agree Disagree Mem. Agree Disagree TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life Voted at least 1 GOP primary Republican Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative Smwt. Cons Very Cons

24 60 On the issue of abortion, would you consider yourself to be pro-life, or pro-choice? 5/29/14 6/15/14 PRO-LIFE Strongly Smwt PRO-CHOICE Smwt Strongly DK/REFUSED NET PRO-LIFE Strongly Smwt PRO-CHOICE Smwt Stongly DK/REF. 24

25 Pro-Life Pro-Choice Pro-Life Pro-Choice Pro-Life Pro-Choice TOTAL Obama Approve Single North Obama Disapprove Married South Gen. Ballot DEM Protestant Richmond MM Gen. Ballot - GOP Catholic Washington D.C. MM Gen. Ballot - UND Born Again Yes Big Three Counties Vote Brat Born Again No Rest of District Vote Trammell White Voted Cantor Vote UND Non-White Voted Brat FNC Reg Under Decide Vote > 2 weeks FNC Not Reg Over Decide Vote < 2weeks Cons. Radio Reg Men Norm. Vote GOP Prime Cons. Radio Not Reg Women Norm. Vote DEM Prime Tea Party Member Always/Usually Cell st Time Vote Primary Tea Party Agree Equal Cell/Landline Economic Tea Party Disagree Always/Usually Landline Social Pro-Life Voted at least 1 GOP primary Republican Pro-Choice Voted at least 2 GOP primaries Non-Republican Voted Any Dem. Primary Democrat Never Voted Primary Independent Lib./Mod Conservative Smwt. Cons Very Cons

26 Of all the personal telephone calls that you receive, that is calls not related to your job, do you get? All calls on a cell phone, Almost all calls on a cell phone, Some on a cell phone and some on a regular home phone, All or almost all calls on a regular home phone, OR Do not have a home phone Total Cantor Brat > 2 weeks < 2 weeks GOP Non- GOP Lib. /Mod. Smwt. Cons. Very Cons. Men Wo- Men Use Cell More All Cell Almost All Cell SOME CELL/HOME ALL/ ALMOST ALL HOME Mostly Land Only Land DK/REFUSED

27 Voter Profile Vote Primary Tot. E.C. D.B. Religion Tot. E.C. D.B. Cell/Land Usage Tot. E.C. D.B. Eric Cantor Protestant Cell More Dave Brat Catholic Some Cell/Land Ideology % % % Jewish Land More Liberal Born Again % % % Age % % % Moderate Yes Conservative No Smwt. Cons Marital Status % % % Very Cons Single, Never Married Party Affiliation % % % Married Over Republican Separated MEAN Democrat Divorced Vote GOP Prez 08 % % % Independent Widowed Yes Primary % % % Abortion Issue % % % No Norm. GOP Prim Pro-Life Vote GOP Prez 12 % % % Norm. DEM Prim Pro-Choice Yes st Time Gender % % % No DK/Ref Male Vote GOP Cong 12 % % % Race % % % Female Yes White List % % % No African American Cell Any DEM Primary % % % Hispanic Land Yes Asian No Vote Any Primary % % % Yes No

28 Voter Profile (Cont.) Area Tot. E.C. D.B. RICHMOND MM Hanover Chesterfield Henrico City of Richmond Rest of Richmond WASHINGTON D.C Spotsylvania Rest of Wash D.C AREA % % % North South Area % % % Big Three Rest of District

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