National Survey Results 2018 General Election Likely Voters Political Environment, Trends & Analysis
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1 National Survey Results 18 General Election Likely Voters Political Environment, Trends & Analysis April 24, 18 John McLaughlin On the web
2 Direction: United States Time Series 8 7 Right Direction Wrong Track April 18 2
3 7 April Direction: United States 55 Right Direction Wrong Track DK/Ref. 6 3 East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND 32 Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Person Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 7 89 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Leaders Helping Swamp GOP Leaders Not Helping Freedom/Rights Threatened Agree Freedom/Rights Threatened Disagree 56 Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 78 Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men 45 Women R W
4 Job Rating: Donald Trump Time Series 7 Approve Disapprove /16 1/17 2/6/17 2//17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 April 18 4
5 APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. April 18 Job Rating: Donald Trump 3 5 App. Disapp. East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter 8 9 App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM 8 9 Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance 38 Approve Trump -- Disapprove Trump -- Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 41 56
6 Opinion: Donald Trump Time Series Favorable Unfavorable /16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2/6/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 April 18 6
7 FAV. Very Smwt UNFAV. Smwt Very NO OPIN. April 18 Opinion: Donald Trump 7 6 Fav. Unfav. East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter 5 9 App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP 8 17 Generic Vote DEM 7 9 Generic Vote UND 28 Vote Cong To Reelect 37 Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump 89 7 Disapprove Trump 2 96 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority 78 Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican 8 17 Democrat 85 Independent Liberal 18 8 Moderate Conservative No College Degree 43 College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 36 57
8 1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 /14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2/6/17 2//17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress Time Series Democrat Republican Undecided April 18 8
9 7 43 GOP 24 April 18 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress Def. Prob. Lean DEM Def. Prob. Lean UND. 9 GOP DEM. UND. East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 45 15
10 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress Time Series 7 Approve Disapprove /17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 April 18
11 7 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. April App. Disapp. East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM 9 85 Generic Vote UND 16 Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 9 84 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree 35 Republican 7 25 Democrat Independent Liberal 76 Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American 19 7 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 59
12 7 There will be a congressional election in November of this year. Would you vote to reelect your member of Congress or would you like to give a new person a chance? April Reelect New Person DK/Ref. 9 RE New East Midwest 61 South West 31 Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump 43 Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority 22 7 Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping 64 Freedom Threatened Agree 32 Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent 19 7 Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White 32 African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
13 7 Who do you trust more to actually keep their campaign promises? Trump GOPs DEMs All None DK April 18 6 T R D None East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent 26 3 Liberal Moderate 17 4 Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
14 7 Do you want congressional leadership to support, or oppose the President s agenda? April Support Oppose DK/Ref. Sup Opp East Midwest South West 38 Trump Voter 87 4 Clinton Voter 6 83 App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority 87 5 Generic Vote GOP 83 7 Generic Vote DEM 6 8 Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump 88 4 Disapprove Trump 6 81 Approve GOP Majority 8 Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican 82 8 Democrat 8 81 Independent Liberal Moderate 51 Conservative No College Degree College Graduate 48 White African- American 72 Hispanic Under Over Men Women
15 President Trump made several campaign promises, like repealing Obamacare and building a wall along the southern border, that have not been realized. Knowing this, among President Trump, the Democrats in Congress, the Republicans in Congress, and the Swamp, who is most responsible for not achieving these priorities? Trump GOPs DEMs The Swamp April DK T R D Swamp East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
16 7 Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports, and would vote for, the impeachment of President Trump? MORE Much More April Smwt More 42 LESS 6 Smwt Less 36 Much Less 9 No Diff 16 6 DK/ Ref. ML East 44 Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority 9 82 Generic Vote GOP 74 Generic Vote DEM 7 14 Generic Vote UND 28 Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping 49 Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat 7 16 Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 7 No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic 54 Under Over Men Women LL
17 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "I am concerned that the American traditions of freedom and individual rights are being threatened by growing social movements, public bullying and increasing political violence." Agree Strongly Smwt Dis- Agree April 18 9 Smwt 6 6 Strongly DK/Ref. 17 Agree Disagr. East Midwest 8 15 South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND 7 13 Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance 8 15 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 8 15 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 8 16 Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 76 16
18 7 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? My elected officials in Washington share my level of concern for the threats to my freedom.." Agree Strongly Smwt Dis- Agree April Smwt 24 9 Strongly DK/Ref. 18 Agree Disagr. East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP 47 Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping 64 Freedom Threatened Agree 54 Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 51 Moderate Conservative 53 No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic 55 Under Over Men Women 38
19 Following are two different opinions regarding Congress passing government spending bills. Please tell me which opinion most closely reflects your own personal opinion Lisa Smith who says it's better that Congress pass one giant spending bill in a simple allor-nothing process to make sure important areas are funded, even if unpopular or controversial items are included in the final bill. OR, Mary Jones says it's better that lawmakers pass smaller bills with more amendments, longer periods of debate and scrutiny for each individual government program and agency so that we aren't paying for unpopular or controversial items. 7 April 18 One Giant Spending Bill 58 Smaller Bill 22 DK/Ref. One Small East Midwest South West Trump Voter 61 Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority 15 7 Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM 59 Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican 22 Democrat Independent Liberal 62 Moderate 56 Conservative 58 No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
20 At the end of March, Congress passed, and President Trump signed, an omnibus spending bill of over 2, pages that few people had time to read. The omnibus spending bill grew the government with $1.3 TRILLION in spending through just September of this year. It added military spending and continued full funding of Planned Parenthood, sanctuary cities, while refusing to fund President Trump s wall. Knowing this, who do you hold responsible for passing this bill into law? Trump GOPs DEMs Swamp All None DK April 18 T R D Swmp All East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping 17 4 Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
21 On a scale from 1-5, with 1 being not concerned at all, 3 being neutral and 5 being very concerned, how concerned are you about the DC Swamp? Non Concerned / 1-2 April Neutral / Concerned 15 DK/ Ref. 21 Not Con. Neut. Concerned East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP 5 68 Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree 5 22 Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican 6 66 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree 6 26 College Graduate 6 22 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
22 How important, on a scale from 1-5, is it to eliminate the influence of the network of DC-centric professional bureaucrats, media, and insider elites who some call the swamp, from the way Washington works? 7 6 Not Important April Neutral / Important DK/ Ref. 22 Not Imp. Neut. Imprtnt. East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
23 7 Is the Republican Leadership helping drain the swamp, or supporting the swamp that President Trump promised to drain? 17 Helping to Drain April Supporting the Swamp 37 DK/Ref. 23 Help Drain Supp. Swamp East 41 Midwest South West 16 Trump Voter Clinton Voter 8 54 App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority 9 61 Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM 7 57 Generic Vote UND 7 22 Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 8 55 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority 7 59 Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat 9 51 Independent 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate 18 White African- American Hispanic 19 Under Over Men Women 15 43
24 April Who or what are the top three impediments to draining the DC Swamp? Advisors/ Bureaucrats GOPs DEMs Media Lobbyists The FBI / Justice Dept. Others Refused
25 Advisors/ Bureaucrats GOP Leadership DEM Leadership The Media Lobbyists The FBI/ Justice East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
26 April Which should be the overarching mission of Congressional Leadership in 18? Serve People / Over Global & Corp. Eliminate Unelected Influence Keep Camp. Promises Repond to Crisis Eliminate Waste, Fraud, Abuse Others Refused
27 Serve the People Eliminate Influence Keep Camp. Promises Respond to Crisis Eliminate Waste East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
28 April Which of the following issues would you say are the most important issues facing the country? Jobs / Econ. Protect Const. Rights Resist Trump Border Security Reduce Size/Scope Gvt Pol. Correct Eliminate DC Culture Other DK/ Ref. Obama Care
29 Jobs/ Econ. Const. Rights Resist Trump Border Security Size Govt. End ObamaCare East Midwest South West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
30 Thinking specifically about these issues, among President Trump, the Republicans in Congress, and the Democrats in Congress, who is best at addressing these issues? Trump GOPs DEMs All None DK April 18 9 T R D All East Midwest South 31 8 West Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women
31 Do you support or oppose efforts by states like California or cities like Chicago, who have refused to comply with federal immigration law and will not cooperate with federal authorities in order to arrest suspected criminals who are in the U.S. illegally? SUPP. Strongly Smwt OPPOSE Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. April Supp Oppose East Midwest South West 43 Trump Voter Clinton Voter App DJT/Disapp GOP Majority Generic Vote GOP Generic Vote DEM Generic Vote UND Vote Cong To Reelect Vote Cong Give New Chance Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Swamp GOP Helping Swamp GOP Not Helping Freedom Threatened Agree Freedom Threatened Disagree 47 Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate 42 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 35
32 18 Likely General Election Voter Profile Party Total Age Total Race Total Republican 33% % White 71% Democrat 36% - 19% African American 12% Independent 31% % Hispanic 11% Ideology % % Asian 4% Liberal 26% Over 65 16% Gender % Moderate 39% Male 47% Conservative 35% Female 53% April 18 32
33 Methodology This survey of 1, likely general election voters nationwide was conducted on April 17 th 22 nd, 18. All interviews were conducted online; survey invitations were distributed randomly within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election. This poll of 1, likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. March 17
34 New York Office 566 South Route 3 Blauvelt, NY D.C./Virginia Office 919 Prince Street Alexandria, VA
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