A Winning Middle Class Reform Government & Politics Message. December 16, 2015

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1 A Winning Middle Class Reform Government & Politics Message December 16, 2015

2 Methodology National Survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place December 5-9, Respondents who voted in the 2012 election or registered since were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.27 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. 60 percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full American electorate. 1

3 Cell phones matter Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? / Thinking about the election for Congress in 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for [NAMED] the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Presidential Vote Congressional Vote Clinton Trump/ Clinton Trump/ Dem. Rep. Dem. Rep. Clinton Romney Rep. ClintonBush/Romney Rep. ClintonWalker/Rubio Clinton Trump Landline Cell Phone Landline Cell Phone 2

4 MOOD 3

5 Wrong track means voters voting for change Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Election Election Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past 4 years. Data represents MEAN ratings. 4

6 And white working class and unmarried women want change Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Total Millennials RAE Unmarried Women Independents White Unmarried Women White Non- College Women White Non- College Men 5

7 Republican, McConnell and Trump brands at shocking low Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Net: Net: +6 Net: -6 Net: -3 Net: -4 Net: -17 Net: -26 Net: -38 Net: Barack Obama Dem Party 48 Hillary Clinton 42 The Dem Congress 38 Paul Ryan GOP Party The GOP Congress 64 Donald Trump 46 Mitch McConnell 6

8 Majority of Republicans favorable to Trump, a quarter strongly Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Net: -38 Net: Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Donald Trump 30.6 Net: -84 Net: Total Democrats Independents Republicans 7

9 Improved image with independents and white working class women, but polarization. White unmarried women stable and even Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Net: Net: Net: Net: +64 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) 55.8 Net: Net: +25 Hillary Clinton 34.2 Net: Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec Sept Dec 39.8 Net: Net: Net: Net: Net: Net: Net: +5 Total Democrats Unmarried Women Independents White Non- College Men White Non- College Women White Unmarried Women 8

10 RAE s relatively low engagement compared to non-rae, white working class men, conservatives poses serious threat How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten % 10 - Extremely Interested

11

12 Clinton vote holds at 50 percent, while Trump/Republican at 42 percent Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Clinton Romney ClintonRomney Clinton Bush / Bush/Romney Romney Clinton Rubio / Clinton Trump/ Clinton Trump/ Clinton Walker/Rubio Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Walker Republican Republican November 2014 January 2015 June 2015 September 2015 December 2015 In November, Republican Candidate was Mitt Romney, in January it rotated between Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush, in June it rotated between Scott Walker/Marco Rubio, and in September and December Donald Trump was the Republican Candidate and self-identifying Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who volunteered another candidate were allocated to the Trump/Republican candidate category. 11

13 Clinton vote against Trump driven by RAE and highest vote with unmarried women Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Clinton 1 Trump/ 2 3 Clinton 4 Trump/ 5 6 Clinton 7 Trump/ 8 9 Clinton 10 Trump/ Clinton 13 Trump/ 14 Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican RAE Unmarried Women 0 Minorities Millennials White Seculars 12

14 Millennial generation accounts for Clinton margin Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Clinton Romney Trump/ ClintonBush/Romney Trump/ ClintonWalker/Rubio Trump/ Clinton Trump/ Republican Republican Republican Republican Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers Silent/Greatest 13

15 Pay attention to the marriage gap Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Gender Gap: +33 Marital Gap: Clinton Romney Trump/ ClintonBush/Romney Trump/ ClintonWalker/Rubio Trump/ Clinton Trump/ Republican Republican Republican Republican White Men White Women White Unmarried Women White Married Women 14

16 Large education divides, especially among the men Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? White High School or Less White College Grads White Post- Grads White College Men White Non- College Men White College Women White Non- College Women 15

17 Named congressional Democrat trails Clinton presidential margin and vote Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? / Thinking about the election for Congress in 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for [NAMED] the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Clinton Trump/ 2 3 Democrat 4 Republican Republican Clinton but not Presidential Vote Congressional Vote Congressional Dem 11 16

18 Unmarried women highest support for Clinton, but room to grow down-ballot How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. Unmarried Women Dem Rep Congress President Congress Congress President Congress Congress President NOTE: Data for 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 from dcorps post-election surveys. 17

19 White millennials give highest support yet for Democrats How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. White Millennials Dem Rep Congress President Congress Congress President Congress Congress President NOTE: Data for 2008, 2010, 2012 for white year olds from dcorps post-election surveys. 18

20 Independents giving Democrats best result in years Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? / Thinking about the election for Congress in 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for [NAMED] the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Independents Democratic Republican approve Approve Disapprove dis Clinton Romney Trump Candidate dem Candidate rep Obama Job Approval Presidential Vote Congressional Vote 19

21 WVWV MIDDLE CLASS GOVERNMENT REFORM 20

22 Democratic economic agenda favored over Republican plan with intensity Now I am going to read you some things lawmakers from different parties have proposed to deal with the economy. From what you know, which plan for the economy do you favor, the Democratic plan or the Republican plan? DEMOCRATS propose: -to protect Medicare and Social Security from any cut in benefits; -to protect working women by ensuring equal pay to men; -to help working mothers by providing 3 months of paid family leave, more paid sick days, and access to affordable childcare; -to make college affordable by reducing student debt and providing free tuition at community colleges; - to make sure jobs pay enough by raising the minimum wage to 12 dollars and empowering workers to bargain for better wages -and to create millions of good paying jobs by investing in a long-term infrastructure plan. OR REPUBLICANS propose: -to cut taxes and regulations on businesses to create jobs; -to build the Keystone XL pipeline which will create thousands of jobs; -to cut welfare spending by cutting payments on those who refuse to work; -to close our borders to protect workers from unfair competition from illegal immigrants who depress wages; -to eliminate the 500 billion dollar a year deficit and pay down the 17 trillion dollar federal debt; -and to repeal and replace Obamacare which costs our economy 716 billion dollars a year, is increasing insurance rates and gives small businesses an incentive NOT to hire more employees. Dem Plan Strongly Rep Plan Strongly

23 Opportunity with white unmarried & working class women Now I am going to read you some things lawmakers from different parties have proposed to deal with the economy. From what you know, which plan for the economy do you favor, the Democratic plan or the Republican plan? Dem plan strongly Rep plan strongly Total Independent 31 RAE 26 Unmarried Women 36 White Unmarried Women White Non College Women 22

24 Campaign transparency and Medicare fraud top Dem reforms Now I am going to read you some things DEMOCRATS have proposed to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and to make sure government works for them. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. CAMPAIGN $ TRANSPARENCY: Get rid of secret money in our political system by requiring full disclosure and transparency of all political money raised or spent in a campaign immediately online for all to see. MEDICARE FRAUD: Crack down on Medicare fraud which costs taxpayers up to $250 billion a year and threatens the long-term solvency of the Medicare system AUDIT GOV. TRANSPARENCY: Immediately audit the entire federal government and publish spending online so voters know where every taxpayer dollar is spent END TAX BREAKS: Eliminate the trillion dollars in tax breaks and subsidies that primarily benefit the richest 10 percent SMALL DONORS: Prevent the wealthy and big corporations from spending unlimited amounts of money on elections and empower small donors by matching small contributions from voters ELIMINATE UNEFFECTIVE PROGRAMS: Evaluate every government program for effectiveness and abolish those that don't help many people and people can't afford WASTE REDUCTION BOARD: Establish an independent government waste reduction board to review government spending and propose legislation to root out waste by eliminating duplicative programs SIMPLIFY TAX CODE: Simplify the tax code for lower income and middle class families which have become so complex that over 6 billion hours a year are spent just filing out tax forms

25 Money reforms and simplifying taxes for the middle class shift vote towards Democrats WVWVAF Reform Policies on Congressional Re-vote Estimated percentage difference in likelihood of voting for the Democratic Congressional candidate 24

26 But simplifying the tax code and waste reduction board raise interest in voting WVWVAF Reform Policies on Interest Re-ask Estimated percentage difference in likelihood of being extremely interested in the election 25

27 Balanced budget amendment tops GOP list of reforms Now I am going to read you some things REPUBLICANS have proposed to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and to make sure government works for them. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. BALANCED BUDGET: Pass an amendment to the Constitution requiring Congress to balance the budget every year WELFARE REFORM: Crack down on welfare and other assistance for people who refuse to work, which now cost taxpayers 235 billion dollars a year and encourages people to avoid finding a job NO ASSISTANCE FOR UNDOC. IMMIGRANTS: Eliminate all federal assistance to illegal aliens which not only cost us billions, but encourages illegal aliens to come here in the first place FLAT TAX/ABOLISH IRS: Pass a simple flat tax where everyone is taxed the same rate, and make your taxes so simple they can fit on a post-card so we can abolish the IRS as we know it VOTE ON REGULATIONS: Reduce the power of an unelected bureaucracy by requiring a congressional vote on all regulations with an economic impact of 100 million dollars or more UNIONS: Reduce the influence of public employee unions on the federal, state and local governments

28 Democratic government reforms far more popular than GOP s s Now I am going to read you some things DEMOCRATS /REPUBLICANS have proposed to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and to make sure government works for them. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. $ TRANSPARENCY: Get rid of secret money in our political system by requiring full disclosure and transparency of all political money raised or spent in a campaign immediately online for all to see. MEDICARE FRAUD: Crack down on Medicare fraud which costs taxpayers up to $250 billion a year and threatens the long-term solvency of the Medicare system AUDIT GOV. TRANSPARENCY: Immediately audit the entire federal government and publish spending online so voters know where every taxpayer dollar is spent BALANCED BUDGET: Pass an amendment to the Constitution requiring Congress to balance the budget every year END TAX BREAKS: Eliminate the trillion dollars in tax breaks and subsidies that primarily benefit the richest 10 percent SMALL DONORS: Prevent the wealthy and big corporations from spending unlimited amounts of money on elections and empower small donors by matching small contributions from voters WELFARE REFORM: Crack down on welfare and other assistance for people who refuse to work, which now cost taxpayers 235 billion dollars a year and encourages people to avoid finding a job ELIMINATE UNEFFECTIVE PROGRAMS: Evaluate every government program for effectiveness and abolish those that don't help many people and people can't afford

29 Independents overwhelmingly favor Democratic reforms Now I am going to read you some things DEMOCRATS /REPUBLICANS have proposed to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and to make sure government works for them. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Democrats Independents Republicans Campaign money transparency Campaign money transparency Welfare reform End special interest tax breaks Small donor campaign reform Balanced budget amendment End Medicare fraud Audit gov End assistance for undoc. immigrants Small donor campaign reform End special interest tax breaks Flat tax/abolish IRS Evaluate govt progs Waste reduction board End Medicare fraud Audit gov Simplify tax code Take power from unions Waste reducuction board Evaluate gov. programs Campaign money transparency

30 Campaign reforms popular with the white unmarried and noncollege women Now I am going to read you some things DEMOCRATS /REPUBLICANS have proposed to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and to make sure government works for them. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. White Unmarried Women White Non College Women White Non College Men End Medicare fraud Welfare reforn Welfare reform Small donor campaign reform Campaign money transparency Campaign money transparency Audit the gov End Medicare fraud Balanced budget amendment Audit the gov End Medicare fraud Flat tax/abolish IRS End special interest tax breaks Balanced budget amendment Balance budget amendment Small donor campaign reform Campaign money transparency Audit the gov Welfare reform Waste reducuction board Waste reduction board Evaluate gov. programs End assistance for undoc. Immigrants Waste reduction board

31 Millennials, minorities and white seniors interested in campaign transparency, special interest tax breaks Now I am going to read you some things DEMOCRATS /REPUBLICANS have proposed to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and to make sure government works for them. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Millennials Minorities White Seniors End special interest tax breaks Campaign money transparency Campaign money transparency Campaign money transparency End special interest tax breaks End Medicare fraud Audit the gov End Medicare fraud Welfare reform End Medicare fraud Evaluate gov. programs End assistance for undoc. Immigrants Evaluate govt progs Audit the gov Audit the gov Small donor campaign reform Balance budget amendment Flat tax/abolish IRS Balanced budget amendment Small donor campaign reform End special interest tax breaks

32 A winning middle class money & government reform agenda Now I am going to read you something DEMOCRATIC candidates are saying about the country and what needs to be done to make things better. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about DEMOCRATIC candidates, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Democratic Money & Government Reform Message We need a country that works for the middle class, not one governed by trickle-down economics. Today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling, yet CEOs and billionaires are using their lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you. So, we should start by barring corporate and secret contributions and empower small donors. And we should make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and root out waste. Audit the federal government, simplify the tax code, and eliminate 1 trillion dollars of special interest breaks. Then, we can level the playing field for the middle class again. Protect Social Security against any cut in benefits. Make college affordable and cut student debt. Help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women. And increase taxes for the richest 1 percent so we can invest in infrastructure to create American jobs and modernize our country Much more positive Total 31

33 Democratic reform message wins against the GOP message Now I am going to read you a statement by a Democratic/Republican candidate on the economy. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about the Democratic/Republican candidate, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Democratic Money & Government Reform Message Much more positive GOP Message Much more positive We need a country that works for the middle class, not one governed by trickle-down economics. Today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling, yet CEOs and billionaires are using their lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you. So, we should start by barring corporate and secret contributions and empower small donors. And we should make sure taxpayers get their money's worth and root out waste. Audit the federal government, simplify the tax code, and eliminate 1 trillion dollars of special interest breaks. Then, we can level the playing field for the middle class again. Protect Social Security against any cut in benefits. Make college affordable and cut student debt. Help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women. And increase taxes for the richest 1 percent so we can invest in infrastructure to create American jobs and modernize our country America again After seven years of big government and weak economic growth under Barack Obama, we should recognize that the solution to the economy is not more government, but less. Our economy is being choked by regulations, beginning with Obamacare, which cost the country 716 billion dollars and 2.5 million jobs. Middle-income people and small businesses pay more and more of their money to the government, rather than using it to grow the economy. There are now 108 million Americans on some form of welfare or the other, many of whom just don't want to work. We have the highest corporate tax rate in the industrial world and then wonder why companies move overseas. We need to get government out of the way and give the innovators and entrepreneurs the freedom they need to rebuild the economy. We need to get our economy growing much faster by throwing out the corrupt tax code and lowering tax rates

34 Dem plan preferred by white unmarried women, has the edge with independents, competitive with white working class women Now I am going to read you a statement by a Democratic /Republican candidate on the economy. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about the Democratic /Republican candidate, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Much more positive White Unmarried Women Independents White Non College Men White Non College Women 33

35 Democratic Money & Government Reform Message leads to big shift in congressional vote WVWVAF Messages on Congressional Re-vote WVWVAF Democratic Money & Government Reform Message Republican Message Estimated percentage difference in likelihood of voting for the Democratic Congressional candidate 34

36 Dems pick up votes among swing groups Thinking about the election for Congress in 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? Net Democrat Republican Initial Democrat Revote RepublicanDemocrat Republican Initial Democrat Revote RepublicanDemocrat Republican Initial Democrat Revote RepublicanDemocrat Initial Republican Democrat Revote Republican TOTAL White Non- College White Non- College Women White Non- College Men 35

37 Impressive increases in interest among critical groups: white working class women, white unmarried women and white millennials How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. POST DEBATE: % 10 Extremely Interested Before After

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