Likely General Election Voter Survey

Transcription

1 National Likely General Election Voter Survey December 8 th, 16 On the web

2 Methodology This survey of 1, likely general election voters nationwide was conducted on December 3 rd to 7 th, 16. All interviews were conducted online; survey invitations were distributed randomly within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election. This poll of 1, likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. December 16

3 Job Approval: Barack Obama - Time Series- Approve Disapprove /14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 /14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 December 16

4 Job Approval: Barack Obama App. Disapp. East Midwest South West 5 47 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama. Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM 9 9 Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat 91 8 Independent Liberal Moderate APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. December 16 2 Conservative 78 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 55 43

5 Job Approval: Donald Trump App. Disapp. East Midwest South 48 West 49 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 93 3 Unfavorable Trump 9 79 Vote 16 - Trump 91 3 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White African- American APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. December 16 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 41 46

6 Opinion: Donald Trump - Time Series- Favorable Unfavorable /16 3/16 5/16 11/16 12/16 December 16

7 Fav. Unfav. Opinion: Donald Trump East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump 88 9 Disapprove Trump 3 95 Favorable Trump 33 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 9 6 Vote 16 - Clinton 86 Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White African- American 65 FAV. Very S mwt UNFAV. S mwt Very NO OPIN. December 16 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 39 53

8 Generic Ballot for Congress - Time Series- Democratic Republican Undecided /14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 /14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 11/16 12/16 December 16

9 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress GOP DEM. UND. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 8 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 86 4 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White African- American GOP Def. Prob. Lean DEM Def. Prob. Lean UND. December 16 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 45 16

10 Top Priority of President Trump and the new Congress Tot Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons Under 55 Over 55 Men Women ECONOMIC Creating Jobs Reducing Taxes SECURITY Nat l Sec./Terror Stop/Mideast Refugees Building the Wall Tear up Iran Nuke Deal REPEAL/REPLACE OBAMACARE D.K./REFUSED December 16

11 Approve/Disapprove: Repealing/ Replacing Obamacare 7 5 App. Disapp. East Midwest 63 South West Cont. Obama Pols. 34 Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 87 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White African- American APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. December 16 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 55 37

12 Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services, or a larger government with many services?- Time Series- Smaller Larger /15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 11/16 12/16 December 16

13 Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services, or a larger government with many services? 8 7 Smaller Larger East Midwest South 5 31 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 7 19 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND 5 15 Republican Democrat Independent 59 Liberal Moderate Conservative Smaller Gov't Larger Gov't DK/Ref. December 16 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men 29 Women 47 32

14 Direction: United States - Time Series- Right Direction Wrong Track /14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 16-Nov 12/16 December 16

15 RD WT Direction: United States East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump 53 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Right Direction Wrong Track DK/Ref. December 16 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 22 66

16 Generally Speaking, would you like the next President and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama, OR Change direction and move away from the polices of President Obama - Time Series- Continue Obama Policies Change Direction /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 December 16

17 Generally Speaking, would you like the next President and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama, OR Change direction and move away from the policies of President Obama 8 Cont. Change East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols. Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 3 93 Approve Trump 17 8 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 8 9 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND 12 Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate 46 Conservative White African- American Continue Obama Policies December 16 Change Direction DK/Ref. Hispanic Under Over Men Women 48

18 Yes No Do you believe the 16 election was fairly conducted? 8 East Midwest South 27 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 8 12 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 83 9 Approve Trump 86 9 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 88 7 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 89 6 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Yes No Unsure December 16 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican 85 7 Democrat 46 Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White 68 African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 53 33

19 Yes No Do you believe millions of illegal voters cast ballots for Hillary Clinton? 8 7 East Midwest South 47 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump 5 24 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Yes No Unsure December 16 White African- American 67 Hispanic 55 Under Over Men Women 22 51

20 Yes No Do you believe the media is biased against President-Elect Donald Trump? 8 7 East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 83 8 Approve Trump 82 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 84 8 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 88 4 Vote 16 - Clinton 67 Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Yes No Unsure December 16 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 79 White African- American 31 5 Hispanic Under Over Men 32 Women 47 37

21 How aware are you of the political protests following the results of the 16 election? 1 Aware Unaware East 94 2 Midwest 98 1 South 96 2 West 96 1 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 98 1 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 98 1 Approve Trump 98 2 Disapprove Trump 97 1 Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump 97 1 Vote 16 - Trump 99 1 Vote 16 - Clinton 96 2 Vote Cong GOP 99 1 Vote Cong DEM 97 2 Vote Cong UND 85 4 Republican Democrat 97 2 Independent 92 2 Liberal 98 1 Moderate AWARE Very Smwt Not Aware Unsure December 16 Conservative 95 1 White 98 1 African- American 88 7 Hispanic 95 2 Under Over Men 97 2 Women 96 2

22 Yes No Have you, yourself participated in any of the aforementioned protests? Yes No Unsure December 16 2 East 9 88 Midwest 2 96 South 9 89 West 8 89 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 3 96 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 2 97 Approve Trump 9 9 Disapprove Trump 8 9 Favorable Trump 9 Unfavorable Trump 6 92 Vote 16 - Trump 7 93 Vote 16 - Clinton 88 Vote Cong GOP 7 92 Vote Cong DEM 9 89 Vote Cong UND 2 88 Republican 8 92 Democrat Independent 3 93 Liberal Moderate 5 94 Conservative 1 95 White 6 92 African- American 87 Hispanic 15 8 Under Over Men 88 Women 5 93

23 Which of the following best describes your own personal opinion? I believe the people protesting came together naturally to voice their anger about the election results, OR, I believe the 16 election protests are paid for by political interests. 8 7 Natural Paid East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols. 85 Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton 83 Vote Cong GOP Natural Paid Unsure December 16 Vote Cong DEM 82 Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White 5 35 African- American 69 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 57 27

24 Do you believe college students should be allowed to miss class without penalty in order to participate in protests? 8 Yes No East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 83 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 7 86 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM 48 Vote Cong UND Republican Yes No Unsure December 16 Democrat 49 Independent Liberal Moderate 69 Conservative 9 82 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 24 66

25 Do you believe colleges and universities who receive federal public funding, including tuition monies paid through financial aid and publicly-funded student loans, should have those funds pulled if it is proven that they have acted in an effort to further a partisan political agenda? 8 7 Yes No East Midwest South West 52 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 7 16 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton 29 5 Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Yes No Unsure December 16 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men 55 Women 44 32

26 If you knew that protestors were being paid and that some protests are being led by the same leaders as the Black Lives Matter movement, would this discredit the protests from your point of view. 8 Yes No East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols. 41 Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 82 9 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 41 Favorable Trump 83 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 84 8 Vote 16 - Clinton 41 Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 8 11 Yes No Unsure December 16 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 58 25

27 Do you believe President Obama and Hillary Clinton should urge protesters to accept the election result that Donald Trump won? 8 Yes No East Midwest 68 South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 87 9 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 89 6 Approve Trump 9 7 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 9 6 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 93 4 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP 9 8 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Yes No Unsure December 16 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 85 9 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 63 24

28 Green Party Presidential Candidate Jill Stein who received 1% of the national vote has asked for recounts in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to try to stop Donald Trump from being President. Hillary Clinton and the Democrats are participating in the recount. Do you think it was right or wrong for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats to support these recounts? 8 7 Right Wrong East Midwest South 42 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 17 7 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP 17 7 Vote Cong DEM 7 13 Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Right Wrong Unsure December 16 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women

29 Yes No Do you believe it would be right to have mass protests at the Inauguration? 8 East Midwest South 28 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 7 85 Approve Trump 15 8 Disapprove Trump 46 Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 85 Vote 16 - Clinton 45 Vote Cong GOP Yes No Unsure December 16 Vote Cong DEM 46 Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 82 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 27 61

30 Do you agree or disagree with future Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer s endorsement of Rep. Keith Ellison as Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, knowing that Congressman Ellison worked for the anti-semitic Nation of Islam and Rev. Farrakhan, and compared the 9/11 attack on World Trade Center to the Reichstag fire in Nazi Germany that gave Hitler the authority to do whatever he wanted? 5 52 Agree Disagree East Midwest South 21 5 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 63 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 56 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND 9 Republican Democrat Independent 54 Liberal Moderate Conservative White African- American 26 Agree S trongly S mwt Disagree S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. December 16 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 16 5

31 Should Congress and President Trump tear up the Iran deal because it does NOT allow independent U.S. inspections of Iran s military laboratories, no U.S. monitoring of the program, and not Americans or Canadians on the ground in Iran to inspect in any capacity? 8 7 Yes No East Midwest 5 18 South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 69 9 Approve Trump 74 9 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 74 8 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 74 8 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP 73 8 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 69 9 Yes No Unsure December 16 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men 24 Women 43

32 All things being equal, who do you agree with more? President Obama and Senate Democrats who say that we have no realistic choice to avoid war, but to accept the agreement with Iran and Iran s behavior will improve, OR, President-Elect Donald Trump and those in Congress who say it s a bad agreement that they did without input from Congress and now it should be voided to negotiate a better deal. 8 7 Obama Trump East Midwest South 53 West 51 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 9 8 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 5 83 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 12 8 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 6 86 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP 8 29 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND 5 Republican 9 8 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 9 78 Obama Trump Unsure December 16 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men 56 Women 28 47

33 All things being equal, who do you agree with more? President Obama who says that the agreement with Iran delays them from getting nuclear weapons for years and that s the best deal that we can get now and it buys us time to avoid war with Iran, OR, Others who say that now is the time to stand up to Iran while we still have enormous economic and military advantages over Iran. In years Iran could have nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles to carry them and a more powerful conventional military and a revived economy to pay for them all. Better to walk away from this agreement and negotiate from strength for a better deal than to put this off for years while Iran gets stronger. 8 7 Deal Strength East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 7 73 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 4 76 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 8 74 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP 75 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 9 72 White African- American 52 Hispanic Obama/Best Deal Neg. From Strength Unsure December 16 Under Over Men 57 Women 28 43

34 Do you support or oppose putting a halt on any more Middle Eastern refugees from entering the United States without being % sure they are not a threat to community safety, national security, or a drain on our economy? 7 66 Supp. Oppose East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 84 Approve Trump 86 8 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 86 9 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 88 7 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP 85 9 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican 87 7 Democrat Independent Liberal 54 Moderate 29 Conservative 82 8 White 7 23 African- American 5 34 S upport S trongly S mwt Oppose S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. December 16 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 61 27

35 Currently the rules of the Senate are written to allow filibusters so that it takes votes out of to get any law passed or get anything done. Would you be in favor of changing the Senate rules to match the House of Representatives so that it takes a simple majority of 51 votes in the Senate out of to pass a law or get things done? 8 7 Favor Oppose East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 5 21 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican 54 Democrat Independent 37 Liberal Moderate Conservative Favor Oppose Unsure December 16 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men 53 Women 24

36 Yes No East Do you believe there is a war on cops? Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 7 19 Approve Obama Disapprove Obama Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 7 19 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump Vote 16 - Clinton 49 Vote Cong GOP Yes No Unsure December 16 Vote Cong DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative White African- American Hispanic Under Over Men Women 56 32

37 Do you support or oppose cutting off federal funds to cities that break the law by refusing to turn in criminal illegal aliens? 7 62 Supp. Oppose East Midwest 66 South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Obama Disapprove Obama 84 8 Approve Trump 84 Disapprove Trump Favorable Trump 87 8 Unfavorable Trump Vote 16 - Trump 86 6 Vote 16 - Clinton Vote Cong GOP 84 9 Vote Cong DEM 48 Vote Cong UND Republican 84 8 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 81 8 White African- American S upport S trongly S mwt Oppose S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. December 16 Hispanic Under Over Men Women 57 29

38 Voter Profile Party Total Age Total Race Total Republican 33% % White 71% Democrat 36% - 19% African American 12% Independent 31% % Hispanic 11% Ideology % % Asian 4% Liberal 26% Over 65 16% Gender % Moderate 39% Male 47% Conservative 35% Female 53%