PENNSYLVANIA: SMALL GOP LEAD IN CD01

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1 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ Follow on Released: Wednesday, October 3, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY (cell); (office) Follow on PENNSYLVANIA: SMALL GOP LEAD IN CD01 Positive views of incumbent overcome -leaning environment West Long Branch, NJ The contest in Pennsylvania s newly drawn 1 st Congressional District remains tight, but ublican incumbent Brian has inched ahead of ocratic challenger Scott in the latest Monmouth University Poll of the race. Most PA-01 voters hold a negative view of President Donald Trump and a plurality say they would like to see ocrats take control of Congress. However, is able to counter these trends with a positive reputation among his constituents. currently holds a 5 to 4 lead over among likely voters using Monmouth s standard midterm turnout model. The race narrows to a virtual tie of 4 for and 4 for using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in ocratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows with a larger 5 to 4 edge over. The race was much closer in Monmouth s poll when was ahead by a single point in the standard model (4-4), was ahead by a single point in the ocratic surge model (4-4), and the race was tied in the low turnout model (4-4). All the leads in the current likely voter models are within the margin of error for the poll. currently has the edge among both male (5 to 4) and female (5 to 4) voters. His lead with men is smaller than it was in (5 to 3), but he has reversed a significant deficit among women (4 to 5 for ) since the summer. White voters without a college degree back by a 5 to 4 margin, which is smaller than the 5 to 3 lead he held in. The ublican has made up for this by erasing the deficit he had with white college educated voters. This group is currently divided at 5 for and 4 for. In, actually had a lead among college educated white voters of 5 to 4. 1

2 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/03/18 Black, Asian, and Latino voters back by 5 to 3 in the current poll, which is similar to his 5 to 3 standing with this group in. When you look at the underlying political environment in this district, you would expect the ocrat to be ahead. But has been able to overcome this with a solid reputation among his constituents, while many remain uncertain about, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Half (5) of PA-01 likely voters have a favorable view of compared to just 2 who have an unfavorable view, with 2 expressing no opinion. This is down slightly from the incumbent s 5 favorable and 2 unfavorable rating in, but this rating is still more positive than views of the challenger. currently earns a 3 favorable and 2 unfavorable rating, with 3 having no opinion. This is more negative than the ocrat s rating of 4 favorable and 2 unfavorable. has an advantage over when it comes to being seen as in touch with the district. A majority of 5 say the incumbent is in touch with his constituents while 3 say he is not. Just over 4-in-10 (4) say the challenger is in touch with PA-01 residents and 3 say he is not. These results are basically unchanged from s results of 5 in touch and 3 out of touch for and 3 in touch and 2 out of touch for. ublicans have been trying to paint the challenger as a carpetbagger. They may be having limited success on this score, and in a tight race that difference in comfort level might prove to be the margin of victory, said Murray. Many underlying indicators in this race point to what would be a ocratic advantage, starting with opinions of the president. A majority (5) of PA-01 voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing compared with 4 who approve. Those who strongly disapprove (4) significantly outnumber those who strongly approve (3). Trump s rating in stood at 5 disapprove and 4 approve. Hillary Clinton won what now comprises Pennsylvania s 1 st Congressional District by 2 points in 2016 and Barack Obama won it by a single point over Mitt Romney in The poll also finds that PA-01 voters express a slight preference for seeing ocrats (4) rather than ublicans (4) in control of Congress. This sentiment is basically unchanged from when 4 preferred ocratic control and 4 preferred ublican control. Just over 1-in-3 likely voters (3) in Pennsylvania s 1 st District say has been too supportive of Trump, which is up somewhat from 2 who said the same in. Conversely, 1 say the incumbent has not been supportive enough, which is down from 2 in. Another 3 say has offered the right amount of support to Trump, which is up from 2 in. 2

3 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/03/18 While the anti-trump lean of the district has remained stable since the summer, ublicans have been able to narrow the partisan gap as it impacts turnout. Currently, 7 of likely voters say that the president is a very important factor in their House vote, including 7 of Trump opponents and 7 of Trump supporters. In, a similar 7 said Trump was a very important factor, but there was a larger gap between opponents (8) and supporters (7) who felt this way. Even though Trump remains a drag on overall, the president s supporters have grown a little more favorable toward the moderate incumbent, boosting potential turnout in the ublican base, said Murray. The poll finds that news about sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is not having much of an impact on this race. More than 8-in-10 likely PA-01 voters (8) say that recent developments have not caused them to change their vote. Among the remainder, say the Kavanaugh issue has made them more likely to support, say it has made them more likely to support, and say it has made them more undecided. When asked to choose their top issue in the House race from a list of six included in the poll, health care (2) emerges as the top pick, followed by immigration (1), tax policy (1), abortion (1), job creation (1), and gun control (1). When asked who they trust more to keep health care affordable, 3 choose and 3 choose, with 2 saying they trust both candidates equally. When asked who they trust more to support policies that will keep their families safe, 4 choose and 3 choose, with 2 saying they trust both equally. This race depends largely on which electorate shows up on Election Day. If ublicans can keep the enthusiasm gap close, should be re-elected. But if the underlying partisan lean of this district on national issues charges up the ocratic base, has a shot, said Murray. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 27 to October 1, with 353 likely voters in Pennsylvania s 1 st Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points. The error of the difference between the two candidates vote share (i.e. the lead ) is +/-7.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. 3

4 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/03/18 QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for U.S. House of resentatives in your district was today, would you vote for Brian the ublican or Scott the ocrat? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following at this moment, do you lean more toward Brian or more toward Scott?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Likely Voters with leaners Standard Midterm ocratic Surge Low Turnout Standard Midterm ocratic Surge Low Turnout Brian Scott (VOL) Other < < < (VOL) ided (n) (353) (353) (353) (254) (254) (254) [QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED] 3. Is your general impression of Brian favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 5 5 Unfavorable 2 2 No opinion Is your general impression of Scott favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 4 Unfavorable 2 2 No opinion How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot 7 8 A little 2 1 Not much at all (VOL) Don t know 6. Have you been following the campaign in your congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely 2 2 Somewhat closely 4 5 Not too closely 2 1 (VOL) Don t know 4

5 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/03/18 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 3 3 Somewhat approve 1 1 Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 4 4 (VOL) Don t know 8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support 4 4 Oppose 5 5 (VOL) Depends/both (VOL) Don t know 9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important 7 7 Somewhat important 1 1 Not too important Not at all important (VOL) Don t know 10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesn t this matter to you? ublicans 4 4 ocrats 4 4 Does not matter 1 1 (VOL) Don t know 11. Has Brian been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive 3 2 Not supportive enough 1 2 Right amount of support 3 2 (VOL) Don t know 1 2 5

6 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/03/ Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED] Immigration policy 1 Health care policy 2 Gun control policy 1 Abortion policy 1 Tax policy 1 Job creation policy 1 (VOL) Other (VOL) Don t know (n) (353) [QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED] 13. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Brian 3 Scott 3 Both equally 2 (VOL) Neither one (VOL) Don t know (n) (353) 14. Who do you trust more to support policies that will keep your family safe Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Brian 4 Scott 3 Both equally 2 (VOL) Neither one (VOL) Don t know (n) (353) [QUESTIONS 15 & 16 WERE ROTATED] 15. Do you think Brian is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch 5 5 Out of touch 3 3 (VOL) Don t know Do you think Scott is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch 4 3 Out of touch 3 2 (VOL) Don t know 2 3 6

7 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/03/ There have been recent hearings and other news about sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Has anything you heard in the last week caused you to change your mind about who you will support in the election for House of resentatives, or hasn t it changed your mind? [If YES : Has this made you more likely to support, more likely to support or has it made you more undecided?] Yes, more likely to support Yes, more likely to support Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind 8 (VOL) Not aware of allegations/news (VOL) Don t know (n) (353) METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 27 to October 1, with a random sample of 353 likely voters in Pennsylvania s 1 st Congressional District, drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least one of the last four general or primary elections or have registered to vote since January This includes 207 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 146 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, party registration, age, gender, education and race based on state voter registration list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and L2 (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Party Registration 4 ublican 4 ocrat 1 Neither Self-orted Party ID 3 ublican 2 ependent 3 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female White, non-hispanic Other 5 No college degree 4 4-year college degree 9 Bucks County 1 Montgomery County 7

8 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/03/18 MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) ALL VOTERS SELF-REPORTED ublican ependent ocrat IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal Male Female AGE COLLEGE by RACE White, No degree White, 4 year degree Other race, Latino Bucks Montgomery VOTE CHOICE Other, undecided ### 8

9 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Q1-2. VOTE WITH Brian Scott Other ided Q1-2. VOTE WITH Brian Scott Other ided Con Mod Lib Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable Brian favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Bucks Montgomery Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable Brian favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 1 2 Brian favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 3 opinion of him? No opinion 3 4 Con Mod Lib Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Scott favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Page 1

10 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Bucks Montgomery Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Scott favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 7 1 Scott favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion 1 8 Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Page 2

11 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Con Mod Lib Q6. Have you been following the Very closely campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely closely, or not too closely? Not too closely Bucks Montgomery Q6. Have you been following the Very closely campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely closely, or not too closely? Not too closely Q6. Have you been following the Very closely 3 1 campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely 4 3 closely, or not too closely? Not too closely 1 4 Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve_disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Male Female Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve_disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve_disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Page 3

12 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Page 4

13 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q11. Has Brian been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Male Female Page 5

14 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Q11. Has Brian been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Q11. Has Brian been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Q12. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST. PROBE FOR SINGLE ANSWER] Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other Q12. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST. PROBE FOR SINGLE ANSWER] Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other Page 6

15 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Q12. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST. PROBE FOR SINGLE ANSWER] Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other Q13. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable - Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? Brian Scott Both equally (VOL) Neither one Q13. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable - Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? Brian Scott Both equally (VOL) Neither one Q13. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable - Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? Brian Scott Both equally (VOL) Neither one Page 7

16 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Q14. Who do you trust more to support policies that will keep your family safe - Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? Brian Scott Both equally (VOL) Neither one Q14. Who do you trust more to support policies that will keep your family safe - Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? Brian Scott Both equally (VOL) Neither one Q14. Who do you trust more to support policies that will keep your family safe - Brian or Scott, or do you trust both equally? Brian Scott Both equally (VOL) Neither one Con Mod Lib Q15. Do you think Brian In touch is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this Out of touch district? Bucks Montgomery Q15. Do you think Brian In touch is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this Out of touch district? Page 8

17 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/18 Q15. Do you think Brian In touch 2 2 is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this Out of touch 6 3 district? 1 3 Q16. Do you think Scott is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Q16. Do you think Scott is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Q16. Do you think Scott is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Q17. There have been recent hearings and other news about sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Has anything you heard in the last week caused you to change your mind about who you will support? Yes, more likely to support Yes, more likely to support Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind (VOL) Not aware of allegations_news Male Female 8 8 Page 9

18 Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/03/ Q17. There have been recent hearings and other news about sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Has anything you heard in the last week caused you to change your mind about who you will support? Yes, more likely to support Yes, more likely to support Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind (VOL) Not aware of allegations_news Q17. There have been recent hearings and other news about sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Has anything you heard in the last week caused you to change your mind about who you will support? Yes, more likely to support Yes, more likely to support Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind (VOL) Not aware of allegations_news Page 10