NEW YORK: VOTERS DIVIDED IN CD19

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1 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ Follow on Released: Wednesday, September 12, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY (cell); (office) Follow on NEW YORK: VOTERS DIVIDED IN CD19 challenger seen more positively than GOP incumbent West Long Branch, NJ First-term Congressman John is in a tight race with attorney and former hip-hop performer Antonio in New York s 19 th Congressional District, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. The ocratic challenger has slightly better personal ratings than the ublican incumbent, despite charges that is a carpetbagger and recent revelations about provocative rap lyrics during his music career. While both candidates have base areas of support, the fight to persuade voters looks to be concentrated in the part of the district located east of the Hudson River. is supported by 4 and is supported by 4 of all potential voters that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents about 8 of all registered voters in the district). Another are undecided. When applying two different likely voter models, the contest continues to favor the ocrat. A historical midterm model gives a 4 to 4 lead over, while a model that includes a turnout surge in ocratic precincts gives a 4 to 4 lead. These leads, though, are within the margin of error for all these models. It does not appear that independent candidates are primed to take a large share of the vote Green Party nominee Steven Greenfield earns and other candidates get. More than a half dozen leftleaning third party and independent candidates filed to run in this election, although many have been removed from the ballot by the Board of Elections or court order. ocrats were worried that a glut of left-leaning third party candidates would hurt s chances. That doesn t seem to be the case right now, but it could be a factor if the race remains tight, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. The race is tightest in the part of the district located east of the Hudson River (Columbia, Dutchess, and Rensselaer counties), with getting 4 support and getting 4 support 1

2 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/12/18 there. performs strongest in the southern part of the district (Sullivan and Ulster counties), with a lead of 5 to 3 over. s strongest area is the remaining counties that make up the western part of the district, holding a 5 to 3 lead over. Currently, 6 of NY-19 voters express a lot of interest in the November election for Congress. This includes 6 of self-identified ocrats and 6 of independents, but a smaller number of ublicans (5). The enthusiasm gap is even wider when looking at interest by candidate support. While 7 of voters express a lot of interest in the upcoming election, only 5 of supporters say the same. receives a divided personal rating of 3 favorable and 3 unfavorable from district voters, with 3 having no opinion of the first-term incumbent. is not as familiar to voters but earns a net positive rating of 3 favorable and 2 unfavorable, with 4 having no opinion of him. Voters are divided on whether the two candidates are in touch or out of touch with NY-19 residents. Fourin-ten (4) say is in touch and a similar 4 say he is not. Likewise, 3 say is touch with the district and 3 say he is not. has been trying to paint as a carpetbagger with a dubious past in rap music. It s not clear that those attacks have taken hold, at least not enough to give the ublican an advantage, said Murray. Overall, 4 of NY-19 voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president while 4 disapprove. However, more voters strongly disapprove (4) than strongly approve (3). This gap is especially wide among white voters with a college degree 5 strongly disapprove to 2 strongly approve. White voters without a college degree give a slight edge to strongly approve (4) over strongly disapprove (3). The poll finds that 6 of potential NY-19 voters say it is very important for them to cast a vote for Congress that shows how they feel about the president including 7 of Trump opponents and 6 of Trump supporters. Currently, 2 of voters say has been too supportive of the president, while 3 say he has offered the right amount of support and 1 say he has not been supportive enough. Another 2 have no opinion. As a point of comparison, fewer voters (2) expect that will be too supportive of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi if he is elected to Congress, while 3 say he will offer the right amount of support and say he will offer too little support. A plurality of 4, though, have no opinion. Overall, NY-19 voters are divided on whether they would rather see ublicans (3) or ocrats (3) in control of Congress. Another 2 say that party control does not matter to them. In the most competitive part of the district east of the Hudson River, ocrats actually have a slight edge (4 to 3) on the generic party control question. As may be expected, they have an even bigger 2

3 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/12/18 advantage in the southern part of the district (3 to 2), while ublican control of Congress is preferred by voters in the western part of the district (5 to 2). When asked to choose the top issue in their vote for Congress from a list of six policy areas, 2 pick health care, which is followed by immigration (2), gun control (1), tax policy (), job creation policy (1), and abortion (). Health care is the most important issue for voters (4), while immigration is the top pick for voters (3). Among voters who are undecided or only leaning toward a candidate right now, health care is the most pressing concern (3). The poll also finds that NY-19 voters are evenly split on the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December 4 approve and 4 disapprove. Concerns about the stability of health care costs are a factor that favors, while immigration and gun control policy are issues that help boost s support, said Murray. New York s 19 th is considered a pivot district, having voted for Barack Obama for president in 2012 (by 6 points) and for Trump in 2016 (by 7 points). entered the House by winning an open seat two years ago by 8 points. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 6 to 10, with 401 voters in New York s 19 th Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points for the full sample and +/- 5.4 percentage points for the likely voter models. The error of the gap between the two candidates vote share (i.e. the margin of the lead ) is +/- 6.9 percentage points for the full sample and +/- 7.7 percentage points for the likely voter models. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for U.S. House of resentatives in your district was today, would you vote for John the ublican, Antonio the ocrat, Steven Greenfield of the Green Party, or some other candidate? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following at this moment, do you lean more toward John or more toward Antonio?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] With leaners Full voter sample September Likely Voter Models Standard ocratic Midterm Surge John Antonio Steven Greenfield candidate (VOL) Undecided (327) (327) 3

4 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/12/18 [QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED] 3. Is your general impression of John favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 3 No opinion 3 4. Is your general impression of Antonio favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 2 No opinion 4 5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot 6 A little 2 Not much at all 1 (VOL) Don't Know 6. Have you been following the campaign in your congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely 2 Somewhat closely 4 Not too closely 3 (VOL) Don't Know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 3 Somewhat approve 1 Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 4 (VOL) Don't Know 4

5 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/12/18 8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support 4 Oppose 4 (VOL) Depends/both (VOL) Don't Know 9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important 6 Somewhat important 1 Not too important Not at all important (VOL) Don't Know5 10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesn t this matter to you? ublicans 3 ocrats 3 Does not matter 2 (VOL) Don't Know [QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED] 11. Has John been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive 2 Not supportive enough 1 Right amount of support 3 (VOL) Don't Know If Antonio is elected do you think he will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, not supportive enough, or will he offer the right amount of support to Pelosi? Too supportive 2 Not supportive enough Right amount of support 3 (VOL) Don't Know 4 5

6 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/12/ Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress. [ITEMS WERE ROTATED] Immigration policy 2 Health care policy 2 Gun control policy 1 Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy 1 (VOL) (VOL) Don t know 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 2 Somewhat approve 1 Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 3 (VOL) Don't Know 1 [QUESTIONS 15 & 16 WERE ROTATED] 15. Do you think John is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch 4 Out of touch 4 (VOL) Don't Know Do you think Antonio is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch 3 Out of touch 3 (VOL) Don't Know How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important 3 Somewhat important 4 Not too important 1 Not at all important 1 (VOL) Don t know 6

7 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/12/18 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 6 to September 10, with a random sample of 401 potential voters in New York s 19 th Congressional District, drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least one of the last four general or primary elections or have registered to vote since January This includes 280 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 121 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, party registration, age, gender, education and race based on state voter registration list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and L2 (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Party Registration 3 ublican 3 ocrat 3 Neither Self-orted Party ID 3 ublican 3 ependent 2 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female White, non-hispanic 1 6 No college degree 3 4-year college degree 3 Columbia/ Dutchess/ Rennselaer Counties 3 Sullivan/ Ulster Counties 2 Counties 7

8 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/12/18 MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) ALL VOTERS SELF-REPORTED ublican ependent ocrat IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal Male Female AGE COLLEGE by RACE White, No degree White, 4 year degree race, Latino Columbia/ Dutchess/ Rennselaer Counties Sullivan/ Ulster Counties Counties VOTE CHOICE Undecided ### 8

9 Q1-2. NY19 HOUSE VOTE WITH LEANERS John Antonio Steven Greenfield Undecided Q1-2. NY19 HOUSE VOTE WITH LEANERS John Antonio Steven Greenfield Undecided Con Mod Lib Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable John favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable John favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Undec Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 7 1 John favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 6 2 opinion of him? No opinion Page 1

10 Con Mod Lib Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Antonio favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Antonio favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Undec Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 7 1 Antonio favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 4 1 opinion of him? No opinion Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Undec Page 2

11 Con Mod Lib Q6. Have you been following the Very closely campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely closely, or not too closely? Not too closely Q6. Have you been following the Very closely campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely closely, or not too closely? Not too closely Undec Q6. Have you been following the Very closely campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely closely, or not too closely? Not too closely Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Undec Page 3

12 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Undec 4 3 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your President Trump - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your President Trump - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Page 4

13 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your President Trump - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important - Undec Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Undec Q11. Has John been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Male Female Page 5

14 Q11. Has John been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Q11. Has John been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Undec Con Mod Lib Male Q12. If Antonio is elected Too supportive do you think he will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, not Not supportive enough 1 1 supportive enough, or will he offer the right amount of support to Right amount of support Pelosi? Q12. If Antonio is elected Too supportive do you think he will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, not Not supportive enough 1 1 supportive enough, or will he offer the right amount of support to Right amount of support Pelosi? Undec Q12. If Antonio is elected Too supportive do you think he will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, not Not supportive enough 1 supportive enough, or will he offer the right amount of support to Right amount of support Pelosi? Female Page 6

15 Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Undec Page 7

16 Q14. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q14. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q14. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Undec Q15. Do you think John is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Q15. Do you think John is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Q15. Do you think John is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Undec 4 3 Page 8

17 Q16. Do you think Antonio is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Q16. Do you think Antonio is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Q16. Do you think Antonio is in touch or out of touch with the residents of this district? In touch Out of touch Undec Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Undec 2 4 Page 9

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