VIRGINIA: TIGHT RACE IN CD07

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1 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ Follow on Released: Tuesday, September 25, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY (cell); (office) Follow on VIRGINIA: TIGHT RACE IN CD07 running strong against Tea Party incumbent West Long Branch, NJ ocrat Abigail holds a narrow lead over incumbent ublican Dave in the race for Virginia s 7 th Congressional District, according to the Monmouth University Poll. Voter opinion of is somewhat more positive than it is of, who came to office as a Tea Party candidate and is considered one of the most ideologically conservative members of Congress. does well in the suburban part of the district that tilted more ocratic in the 2016 presidential election, while performs strongly in the rural part of the district that actually voted even more ublican in 2016 than it did four years earlier. is supported by 4 and is supported by 4 of all potential voters that is voters who have participated in at least one election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents about 9 of all registered voters in the district). Another of voters support Libertarian Joe Walton and are undecided. The ocrat s lead narrows when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model shows a tie at 4 for and 4 for. A model that projects a possible turnout surge in ocratic precincts gives a slight lead of 4 to 4. The margin of the lead in these voter models is not statistically significant. holds a sizable advantage in the Richmond suburbs of County (5 to 3 for ) and County (5 to 3) areas that supported Hillary Clinton for president in 2016 after voting for Mitt Romney in holds a 5 to 3 lead over in the remaining part of the district. This area, which runs from Culpeper to Nottoway County, actually gave Donald Trump a bigger margin of support in 2016 than it did for Romney four years earlier. Overall, voters in Virginia s 7 th district supported Romney for president by 11 points in 2012 and Trump by just over 6 points in won re-election to his House seat by 15 points two years ago. 1

2 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/25/18 This is a tale of two districts. The Richmond suburbs that backed Clinton in 2016 support while the Trump strongholds are firmly behind. The reason this race is so close right now is because there are more voters in the suburban areas, said Murray. holds a very large lead over among white voters without a college degree (6 to 3). This is offset by s advantage among college educated white voters (5 to 4) and non-white voters regardless of education (6 to ). Just over half of all voters (5) have a lot of interest in the election, which includes 6 of supporters and 6 of supporters. The district is currently divided on which party they want in charge of Congress, with 3 of VA-07 voters saying they prefer to see GOP control and 3 saying they want the ocrats to take over. Another 2 say that party control of Congress does not matter to them. does better than in winning over partisan converts. The poll finds that 8 of self-identified ublicans support, but 1 say they will cross party lines to vote for. The ocratic candidate, on the other hand, holds onto 9 of her fellow partisans while losing none to. ependent voters are divided at 4 for and 3 for. Some ublican voters who are lukewarm on feel comfortable enough with to give her their support, at least for now, said Murray., a former CIA officer, gets a positive rating of 4 favorable and 1 unfavorable from VA-07 voters, with 3 having no opinion. Views of are more mixed at 3 favorable and 2 unfavorable, with 3 having no opinion. The incumbent entered Congress after upsetting former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 ublican primary. Overall, 4 of VA-07 voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president while a similar 4 disapprove, although those who strongly disapprove (4) slightly outnumber those who strongly approve (3). The poll finds that 6 of potential voters say it is very important for them to cast a vote for Congress that shows how they feel about the president with Trump opponents (7) being somewhat more likely than Trump supporters (6) to feel this way. Currently, 2 of voters say has been too supportive of the president, while 3 say he has offered the right amount of support and say he has not been supportive enough. Another 2 have no opinion. As a point of comparison, a similar number of voters (2) worry that will be too supportive of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi if she is elected to Congress, while 4 say she will offer the right amount of support and say she will offer too little support. Another 2 have no opinion. When asked to choose the top issue in their vote for Congress from a list of six policy areas, 3 of VA-07 voters pick health care. This is followed by immigration (1), gun control (1), tax policy 2

3 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/25/18 (1), job creation (1), and abortion (). Voters are divided on whether they approve (4) or disapprove (3) of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last year. has a slight advantage on handling voters top concern of health care, with 3 saying they trust the ocrat more to keep health care affordable compared to 3 who say they trust more on this issue. Another 1 say they trust both candidates equally. On handling the issue of illegal immigration, 3 say they trust more, 3 say they trust more, and 1 say they trust both candidates equally. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 15 to 24, with 400 potential voters in Virginia s 7 th Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points for the full sample and +/-5.4 percentage points for the likely voter models. The error of the gap between the two candidates vote share (i.e. the margin of the lead ) is +/-6.9 percentage points for the full sample and +/- 7.6 percentage points for the likely voter models. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for U.S. House of resentatives in your district was today, would you vote for Dave the ublican, Abigail the ocrat, or Joe Walton the Libertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following at this moment, do you lean more toward Dave or more toward Abigail?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] With leaners Full voter sample September Likely Voter Models Standard ocratic Midterm Surge Dave Abigail Joe Walton < (VOL) Undecided (329) (329) [QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED] 3. Is your general impression of Dave favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 2 No opinion 3 3

4 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/25/18 4. Is your general impression of Abigail favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 4 Unfavorable 1 No opinion 3 5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot 5 A little 3 Not much at all 1 (VOL) Don't Know 6. Have you been following the campaign in your congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely 2 Somewhat closely 4 Not too closely 3 (VOL) Don't Know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 3 Somewhat approve 1 Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 4 (VOL) Don t know 8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support 4 Oppose 4 (VOL) Depends/both (VOL) Don t know 4

5 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/25/18 9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important 6 Somewhat important 1 Not too important Not at all important (VOL) Don t know Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesn t this matter to you? ublicans 3 ocrats 3 Does not matter 2 (VOL) Don t know [QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED] 11. Has Dave been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive 2 Not supportive enough Right amount of support 3 (VOL) Don t know If Abigail is elected do you think she will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, not supportive enough, or will she offer the right amount of support to Pelosi? Too supportive 2 Not supportive enough Right amount of support 4 (VOL) Don t know Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED] Immigration policy 1 Health care policy 3 Gun control policy 1 Abortion policy Tax policy 1 Job creation policy 1 (VOL) Other (VOL) Don t know 5

6 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/25/ Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 2 Somewhat approve 1 Somewhat disapprove 1 Strongly disapprove 2 (VOL) Don t know 2 [QUESTIONS 15 & 16 WERE ROTATED] 15. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Dave 3 Abigail 3 Both equally 1 (VOL) Neither one (VOL) Don t know 16. Who do you trust more to handle the issue of illegal immigration Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Dave 3 Abigail 3 Both equally 1 (VOL) Neither one (VOL) Don t know 17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important 3 Somewhat important 3 Not too important 1 Not at all important 1 (VOL) Don t know 6

7 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/25/18 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 15 to 24, with a random sample of 400 potential voters in Virginia s 7 th Congressional District, drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least one of the last four general or primary elections or have registered to vote since January This includes 180 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 220 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, party primary voting history, age, gender, education and race based on state voter registration list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by IHR Research Group (field) and STS/Aristotle (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Party primary history 5 ublican 2 ocrat 2 Neither Self-orted Party ID 3 ublican 3 ependent 2 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female White, non-hispanic 1 Black Hispanic, Asian, other 5 No college degree 4 4-year college degree 3 County 3 County 3 Other counties 7

8 Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/25/18 MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) ALL VOTERS SELF-REPORTED ublican ependent ocrat IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal Male Female AGE COLLEGE by RACE White, No degree White, 4 year degree Other race, Latino Other VOTE CHOICE Undecided ### 8

9 Q1-2. VA07 HOUSE VOTE WITH Dave Abigail Joe Walton Undecided Q1-2. VA07 HOUSE VOTE WITH Dave Abigail Joe Walton Undecided Con Mod Lib Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable Dave favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable Dave favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 1 Dave favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 opinion of him? No opinion 3 7 Con Mod Lib Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Abigail favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of her? No opinion Page 1

10 VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Abigail favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of her? No opinion Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 8 2 Abigail favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of her? No opinion 1 7 Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Page 2

11 Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Page 3

12 Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o 9 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Page 4

13 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o 8 1 Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Page 5

14 Q11. Has Dave been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Male Female Q11. Has Dave been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Q11. Has Dave been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support Con Mod Lib Male Q12. If Abigail is Too supportive elected do you think she will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, Not supportive enough not supportive enough, or will she offer the right amount of support Right amount of support to Pelosi? Q12. If Abigail is Too supportive elected do you think she will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, Not supportive enough 1 1 not supportive enough, or will she offer the right amount of support Right amount of support to Pelosi? Q12. If Abigail is Too supportive 3 5 elected do you think she will be too supportive of Nancy Pelosi, Not supportive enough 1 not supportive enough, or will she offer the right amount of support Right amount of support to Pelosi? Female Page 6

15 Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other Page 7

16 Q14. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q14. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q14. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q15. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? Dave Abigail Both equally [VOL]Neither one Q15. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? Dave Abigail Both equally [VOL]Neither one VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o 7 1 Page 8

17 Q15. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? Dave Abigail Both equally [VOL]Neither one Q16. Who do you trust more to handle the issue of illegal immigration Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? Dave Abigail Both equally [VOL]Neither one Q16. Who do you trust more to handle the issue of illegal immigration Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? Dave Abigail Both equally [VOL]Neither one VA07 HOUSE VOTE w/o 8 Q16. Who do you trust more to handle the issue of illegal immigration Dave or Abigail, or do you trust both equally? Dave Abigail Both equally [VOL]Neither one Page 9

18 Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Page 10