OHIO: TIGHT RACE FOR PREZ; PORTMAN WIDENS SENATE LEAD

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1 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ Follow on Released: Wednesday, 5, tact: PATRICK MURRAY (cell); (office) Follow on OHIO: TIGHT FOR PREZ; PORTMAN WIDENS SENATE LEAD Kasich s anti-trump stand still popular West Long Branch, NJ Hillary Clinton holds a slim 2 point lead over Donald Trump in the perennial battleground state of Ohio, compared to a 4 point lead in mid-. At the same time, incumbent U.S. Senator Rob Portman has expanded his margin over former governor Ted Strickland from 8 points to 15 points now. The Monmouth University Poll also finds that current governor John Kasich s standing has not been hurt by his continued opposition to Trump s candidacy. Among Ohio voters likely to cast ballots in November s presidential election, currently support Clinton and 4 back Trump. Another intend to vote for ertarian Gary Johnson, who will appear as an independent on the ballot, are supporting Jill Stein of the Green Party, and are undecided. In mid-, Clinton led Trump by 4 to 3, with Johnson at 1 and Stein registering less than a percent. Clinton is not doing quite as well as Barack Obama did four years ago among black,, and Asian voters (7 to 1 for Trump compared with 8 for Obama to 1 for Mitt Romney in 2012). Likewise, Trump is not doing quite as well with white voters (48% to 3 for Clinton) as Romney did (57% to 4 for Obama). These results have not changed substantially since. Clinton has a 5 to 3 lead in ocrat-leaning northeastern Ohio plus the 9 th gressional district that hugs Lake Erie from Cleveland to Toledo. However, this is not as strong a showing as Obama, who won this five-district region by 6 to 38% four years ago. The race is virtually tied at 4 Clinton and Trump in the five districts covering the central and southeastern part of the state, similar to the 4 to 4 tie here in Trump has a 4 to 37% lead in the remaining part of the state north and west of Columbus, which is similar to Romney s 5 to win here in the last election. 1

2 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/5/16 You can draw a direct line between Clinton s relative weakness with the ocratic base and Pres. Obama s scheduled campaign stop in Cleveland next week, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. While the presidential horserace in Ohio may have shifted by a few points, the underlying fundamentals have not. Only 3 of voters have a favorable view of Clinton and 5 have an unfavorable opinion. Her rating was 3 to 5 in. Just 3 have a favorable view of Trump and 57% have an unfavorable opinion. His rating was 2 to 58% in. Clinton does have an advantage on a few key metrics. More Buckeye State voters say Clinton understands the day to day concerns of people like them 47% feel she does and 5 feel she does not than say the same about Trump 37% feel he does and 6 feel he does not. Clinton has an even wider advantage on the issue of presidential temperament. Significantly more voters say Clinton has the right temperament for the job (5) than say the same about Trump (3). Turning to the U.S. Senate race, the Monmouth University Poll finds GOP incumbent Rob Portman with a 5 to 3 lead over former ocratic governor Ted Strickland. Another say they will vote for a third party or independent candidate and are undecided. The current margin is wider than Portman s 48% to 4 lead in. Portman continues to garner more support from his fellow ublicans (9) than Strickland does from his fellow ocrats (7). ependents prefer Portman by 57% to 3. Portman s ratings have improved since Monmouth s last Ohio poll while Strickland s have remained stable. Portman earns a positive job rating from most Ohio voters 5 approve and 2 disapprove, which is better than his 3 approve and 2 disapprove rating In. His personal rating has also improved, now standing at 4 favorable and 1 unfavorable, compared to 28% favorable and 2 unfavorable in. Voters views of Strickland are more negative at 27% favorable and 37% unfavorable, which is virtually unchanged from 2 favorable and 37% unfavorable in the last poll. Portman s underlying ratings were lower in partly because he prefers to keep a low profile. Now that he has been out on the stump, Ohio voters like what they see, said Murray. Current governor, and former presidential candidate, John Kasich holds a very positive 58% approve and 3 disapprove rating from likely voters in his home state. Kasich has made a point of distancing himself from Trump. This has not hurt the governor s reputation among his fellow Buckeyes 3 think more highly of Kasich because he is not supporting Trump and just 2 think less highly of him. Another 4 say Kasich s stand against Trump has had no impact on their opinion of the governor. These results are virtually unchanged from. 2

3 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/5/16 The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from 1 to 4, with 405 Ohio residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the ublican, Hillary Clinton the ocrat, Gary Johnson the independent ertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Donald Trump 4 3 Hillary Clinton 4 Gary Johnson 1 Jill Stein < (VOL) candidate < (VOL) Undecided 8% 3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Rob Portman the ublican, Ted Strickland the ocrat, or some other candidate? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Rob Portman or Ted Strickland?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Rob Portman 5 48% Ted Strickland 3 4 candidate (VOL) Undecided 8% Regardless of who you may support for president [QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED] 4. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 2 Unfavorable 57% 58% No opinion Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 3 3 Unfavorable 5 5 No opinion 1 1 3

4 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/5/16 [QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED] 6. Regardless of whether you would vote for him, do you think Donald Trump does or does not president? 3 not 6 (VOL) Don t know (n) (405) 7. Regardless of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton does or does not president? 5 not 3 (VOL) Don t know (n) (405) [QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED] 8. Do you think Donald Trump day to day concerns of people like you? 37% not 6 (VOL) Don t know (n) (405) 9. Do you think Hillary Clinton day to day concerns of people like you? 47% not 5 (VOL) Don t know (n) (405) Turning to the Senate race [QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED] 10. Is your general impression of Rob Portman favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 4 28% Unfavorable 1 2 No opinion Is your general impression of Ted Strickland favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 27% 2 Unfavorable 37% 37% No opinion 3 4 4

5 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/5/ Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S. senator? (VOL) No opinion 2 3 On another topic, 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Kasich is doing as governor? 58% 3 (VOL) No opinion 1 (n) (405) 14. Governor Kasich said he cannot support Donald Trump for president. this make you think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have no impact on your opinion of him? More highly 3 38% Less highly 2 17% No impact 4 (VOL) No opinion METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from 1 to 4, with a random sample of 405 likely Ohio voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 355 drawn from a list of registered voters (204 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-orted 28% ublican 4 ependent 3 ocrat 47% White 1 Black 5

6 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/5/16 MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) LIKELY VOTER Total SELF-REPORTED ublican ependent % ocrat IDEOLOGY servative erate eral % AGE % % No % Yes % ### 6

7 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 10/5/16 Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson Stein [VOL] cand Undecided % 88% 7 3 8% 1 48% 8 8% 47% 38% 38% % Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson Stein [VOL] cand Undecided % 3 7% % % Q3. SEN VOTE WITH LEANERS Portman Strickland Undecided % 3 18% 7 8% % 7 8% 58% % Q3. SEN VOTE WITH LEANERS Portman Strickland Undecided % % Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable % 5 2 7% 3 28% 2 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 57% % % opinion of him? No opinion % Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable % % 3 3 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable % 57% 5 opinion of him? No opinion Page 1

8 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 10/5/16 Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable % 38% 7 28% 4 3 Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 88% opinion of her? No opinion 1 7% Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 58% opinion of her? No opinion 8% 2 1 7% 1 8% 1 Q6. Regardless of whether you would vote for him, do you think Donald Trump does or does not not % 5 27% 6 president? [VOL] Dont know_refused 7% 7% Q6. Regardless of whether you would vote for him, do you think Donald Trump does or does not not 27% 68% 38% % % 6 president? [VOL] Dont know_refused 7% Q6. Regardless of whether you would vote for him, do you think Donald Trump does or does not not president? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q7. Regardless of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton does or does not not % 9 8% % 67% 3 president? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q7. Regardless of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton does or does not not president? [VOL] Dont know_refused Page 2

9 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 10/5/16 Q7. Regardless of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton does or does not not president? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q8. Do you think Donald Trump 37% day to day concerns of people like not % you? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q8. Do you think Donald Trump % 3 3 day to day concerns of people like not 68% 5 57% you? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q8. Do you think Donald Trump 4 4 day to day concerns of people like not 57% 58% you? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q9. Do you think Hillary Clinton 47% 27% % 4 78% 4 5 day to day concerns of people like not % % 4 you? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q9. Do you think Hillary Clinton % 47% 6 day to day concerns of people like not % you? [VOL] Dont know_refused Q9. Do you think Hillary Clinton 3 4 day to day concerns of people like not 68% 57% you? [VOL] Dont know_refused Page 3

10 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 10/5/16 Q10. Is your general impression Favorable of Rob Portman favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 7% opinion of him? No opinion % Q10. Is your general impression Favorable % % 4 5 of Rob Portman favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable % opinion of him? No opinion Q11. Is your general impression Favorable 27% % % of Ted Strickland favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 37% % 17% opinion of him? No opinion 3 28% 3 37% Q11. Is your general impression Favorable 28% of Ted Strickland favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable % 38% % opinion of him? No opinion 28% % Q12. Do you approve or % 47% disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S % 1 17% senator? (VOL) Neither_No opinion_dont % Q12. Do you approve or 4 57% 5 38% disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S senator? (VOL) Neither_No opinion_dont % 28% 2 2 Q12. Do you approve or 6 57% disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S. 2 1 senator? (VOL) Neither_No opinion_dont 1 28% Page 4

11 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 10/5/16 Q13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Kasich is doing as governor? (VOL) Neither_No opinion_dont 58% % % 3 3 7% 1 Q13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Kasich is doing as governor? (VOL) Neither_No opinion_dont % % % % 1 Q13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Kasich is doing as governor? (VOL) Neither_No opinion_dont 57% 3 7% 7 18% 1 Q14. Governor Kasich said he More highly % 68% 3 3 cannot support Donald Trump for president. this make you Less highly % think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have No impact % 4 4 no impact on your opinion of him? (VOL) Dont Q14. Governor Kasich said he More highly 38% % 4 3 cannot support Donald Trump for president. this make you Less highly 1 28% think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have No impact % 5 3 no impact on your opinion of him? (VOL) Dont Q14. Governor Kasich said he More highly 3 3 cannot support Donald Trump for president. this make you Less highly 2 1 think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have No impact 4 4 no impact on your opinion of him? (VOL) Dont Page 5