WEST VIRGINIA: GOP GAINS IN CD03

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1 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll Long Branch, NJ Follow on Released: Tuesday, October 16, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY (cell); (office) Follow on WEST VIRGINIA: GOP GAINS IN CD03 loses ground as district partly reverts to GOP norms Long Branch, NJ ublican Carol Miller has overtaken ocrat Richard Ojeda in the race for Virginia s 3 rd Congressional District, according to the second Monmouth University Poll of this contest. Ojeda s personal appeal and the presence of a popular ocratic U.S. Senator at the top of the ticket have kept him in a race where all the underlying fundamentals especially President Donald Trump s popularity favor Miller. The question is whether that is enough to keep this race competitive as the district starts reverting to its GOP norms. Miller currently holds a 4 to 4 lead over Ojeda among likely voters using Monmouth s standard midterm turnout model. Other turnout models show similar results, with 4 to 4 leads for Miller using either a model that incorporates a turnout surge in ocratic precincts or a model that projects lower turnout overall. In June, Ojeda actually held a lead of between 6 and 9 points in Monmouth s poll 4-4 in the standard model, 4-3 in the ocratic surge model, and 4-4 in the low turnout model. While there has been a significant increase in Miller s vote share, her current lead is within the poll s margin of error for all three likely voter models. Ojeda s share of the vote hasn t really moved since the summer while Miller s standing has risen. These results are a sign of ublican voters returning to the fold in a district that leans ublican, especially in its support of the president, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Trump receives a nearly 2-to-1 positive rating from WV-03 voters 6 approve and 3 disapprove. This is nearly identical to his 6-3 rating from June. Seven-in-ten (7) voters say that the president is a very important factor in their vote for Congress, with somewhat more Trump opponents (7) than Trump supporters (6) feeling this way. In general, though, more WV-03 voters prefer to see the ublican Party (4) in control of Congress rather than the ocrats (3). 1

2 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/18 Trump held a rally in the state earlier this month where he endorsed Miller and called Ojeda a wacko and stone cold crazy. Three-quarters (7) of voters are aware of Trump s endorsement, but its impact is a wash 2 say it makes them more likely to support Miller, 2 say it makes them less likely, and 4 say it has no impact on their vote. Just over half (5) have heard about the president s characterization of Ojeda and slightly more voters actually say this makes them more likely (1) rather than less likely () to back the ocrat. However, the overwhelming majority (7) say it doesn t affect their vote either way. The problem for Ojeda is that there just aren t that many Trump opponents in this district to give him the kind of edge that he would have if this was a competitive suburban district elsewhere in the country. The ocrat is hanging on in this race largely due to his personal connection with voters there, said Murray. Nearly half (4) of WV-03 voters say Ojeda understands their day to day concerns while 3 say he does not. Opinion of Miller is more divided on this factor, with 4 saying she understands their day to day concerns and 4 saying she does not. These results were similar for Ojeda in June, when 4 said he understood their concerns and 2 said he did not. Miller s rating on this metric has become more negative since June when 3 said she understood their concerns and 2 said she did not. Both candidates, though, hold similar personal ratings 3 favorable to 3 unfavorable for Miller and 3 favorable to 3 unfavorable for Ojeda. The ublican has gotten a slightly more positive bump than the ocrat on this rating since the summer, although both have seen their negative numbers go up much more. In June, Miller s rating stood at 2 favorable to 1 unfavorable while Ojeda s rating stood at 3 favorable to 1 unfavorable. Voters are divided on which candidate shares their values 3 say it is Miller and 3 say it is Ojeda, with 1 saying both candidates equally share their values. The top issue for WV-03 voters is health care (2), as it is in other districts Monmouth has polled in the cycle. This is followed by abortion (1), job creation (1), opioid addiction (1), immigration (1), gun control (1), and taxes (). Ojeda voters choose health care (4) as their top issue, with opioid addiction (1) and job creation (1) falling in the next tier of priorities. Miller voters, on the other hand, are more likely to name abortion (2) as their top concern, with gun control (1), immigration (1), job creation (1), and health care (1) grouped in the next level. This is the only district Monmouth has polled where abortion registers this highly as voters top issue. It just illustrates how different this race is than most of the other contests that will decide which party controls the House, said Murray. The Monmouth University Poll also asked WV-03 voters about their preference in the state s U.S. Senate race. Incumbent Joe Manchin (5) has a significant 20 point advantage over challenger Patrick 2

3 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/18 Morrisey (3) in this district using Monmouth s standard turnout model. This is larger than the 14 point lead (5 to 3) Manchin held in this part of the state in June. Monmouth did not survey the entire state in the current poll, but Manchin s June advantage in the 3 rd Congressional District was 7 points higher than his overall statewide lead of 7 points (5-4) in that poll. Manchin was the only ocratic senator to vote in favor of Brett Kavanaugh s nomination to the Supreme Court, but the poll finds that this is not having much of an electoral impact either way. Nearly 8-in-10 (7) likely WV-03 voters say this issue has not caused them to change their vote for the Senate. Among the remainder, say the Kavanaugh issue has made them more likely to support Manchin, say it has made them more likely to support Morrisey, and say it has made them more undecided. The poll finds that Morrisey supporters are more likely to vote straight party-line than they were in the summer while Manchin voters have become slightly less likely. Specifically, 9 of Morrisey voters say they are supporting Miller in the House race and only are supporting Ojeda. In June, a smaller number of Morrisey voters (7) were committed to voting ublican in the House while 1 were supporting the ocrat. Among Manchin voters, 7 currently support Ojeda, but 2 are splitting their ticket for Miller in the House race. In June, a slightly smaller 1 of Manchin voters preferred Miller while 7 stood with Ojeda. Manchin s name brand might be incredibly strong in Virginia s 3 rd District, but his coattails aren t long enough to easily carry Ojeda over the finish line with him, said Murray. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 10 to 14, with 350 likely voters in Virginia 3 rd Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/-5.2 percentage points. The error of the difference between the two candidates vote share (i.e. the lead ) is +/-7.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in Long Branch, NJ. 3

4 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/18 QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) [QUESTIONS SEN1/2 & HOUSE1/2 WERE ROTATED] Sen1/2. [WV-03 ONLY:] If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Patrick Morrisey the ublican, Joe Manchin the ocrat, or Rusty Hollen the Libertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following at this moment, do you lean more toward Patrick Morrisey or more toward Joe Manchin?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Likely Voters with leaners Standard Midterm June ocratic Surge Low Turnout Standard Midterm ocratic Surge Low Turnout Patrick Morrisey Joe Manchin Rusty Hollen n/a n/a n/a (VOL) Other < < < (VOL) Undecided (n) (350) (350) (350) (343) (343) (343) House1/2. If the election for U.S. House of resentatives in your district was today, would you vote for Carol Miller the ublican or Richard Ojeda the ocrat? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following at this moment, do you lean more toward Carol Miller or more toward Richard Ojeda?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Likely Voters with leaners Standard Midterm June ocratic Surge Low Turnout Standard Midterm ocratic Surge Low Turnout Carol Miller Richard Ojeda (VOL) Other (VOL) Undecided 1 (n) (350) (350) (350) (343) (343) (343) [QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED] 3. Is your general impression of Carol Miller favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? June Favorable 3 2 Unfavorable 3 1 No opinion 3 5 (n) (350) (343) 4. Is your general impression of Richard Ojeda favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? June Favorable 3 3 Unfavorable 3 1 No opinion 2 4 (n) (350) (343) 4

5 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/18 5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? June A lot 7 7 A little 1 2 Not much at all (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) (343) 6. Have you been following the campaign in your congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? June Very closely 3 2 Somewhat closely 4 4 Not too closely 1 2 (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) (343) 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] June Strongly approve 5 4 Somewhat approve 1 1 Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 3 2 (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) (343) 8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? June Support 6 6 Oppose 3 3 (VOL) Depends/both (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) (343) 9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? June Very important 7 6 Somewhat important 1 2 Not too important Not at all important (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) (343) 5

6 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/ Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesn t this matter to you? ublicans 4 ocrats 3 Does not matter 1 (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) [QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED] 11. Do you think Carol Miller does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like you? June Does 4 3 Does not 4 2 (VOL) Don t know 1 4 (n) (350) (343) 12. Do you think Richard Ojeda does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like you? June Does 4 4 Does not 3 2 (VOL) Don t know 1 3 (n) (350) (343) 13. Which candidate shares more of your values Carol Miller or Richard Ojeda, or do they share your values equally? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Carol Miller 3 Richard Ojeda 3 Both equally 1 (VOL) Neither one (VOL) Don t know 1 (n) (350) 14. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED] Immigration policy 1 Health care policy 2 Gun control policy 1 Abortion policy 1 Tax policy Job creation policy 1 Opioid addiction policy 1 (VOL) Other (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) 6

7 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/18 [QUESTIONS 15/15A & 16/16A WERE ROTATED] 15. Have you heard that Carol Miller was recently endorsed by Donald Trump, or haven t you heard about this? Heard 7 Not heard 2 (n) (350) 15A. Does Trump s endorsement make you more likely to support Miller, less likely to support Miller, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Miller 2 Less likely to support Miller 2 Does not change vote choice 4 (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) 16. Have you heard that Donald Trump recently called Richard Ojeda a wacko and stone-cold crazy, or haven t you heard about this? Heard 5 Not heard 4 (n) (350) 16A. Does Trump s statement make you more likely to support Ojeda, less likely to support Ojeda, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Ojeda 1 Less likely to support Ojeda Does not change vote choice 7 (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) 17. Turning to the U.S. Senate race, has anything that s happened in the last few weeks related to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court caused you to change your mind about who you will support in the election for U.S. Senate, or hasn t it changed your mind? [If YES : Has this made you more likely to support Morrisey, more likely to support Manchin, or has it made you more undecided?] Yes, more likely to support Morrisey Yes, more likely to support Manchin Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind 7 (VOL) Don t know (n) (350) 7

8 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/18 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 10 to 14, with a random sample of 350 likely voters in Virginia s 3 rd Congressional District, drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least one of the last four general or primary elections, or have registered to vote since January This includes 207 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 143 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, party registration, age, gender, education and race based on state voter registration list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and L2 (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Party Registration 2 ublican 5 ocrat 1 Neither Self-orted Party ID 3 ublican 3 ependent 3 ocrat 5 Male 5 Female White Other 7 No college degree 2 4-year college degree 5 region 2 Mercer/Raleigh 2 region 8

9 Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/16/18 MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) ALL LIKELY VOTERS SELF-REPORTED ublican ependent ocrat IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal Male Female AGE COLLEGE White, No degree White, 4 year degree Other Mercer/Raleigh HOUSE VOTE CHOICE Miller Ojeda Other/undecided SEN VOTE CHOICE Morrisey Manchin Other/undecided ### 9

10 Q1-2. WV03 SENATE VOTE WITH LEANERS Patrick Morrisey Joe Manchin Rusty Hollen Other cand Undecided Q1-2. WV03 SENATE VOTE WITH LEANERS Patrick Morrisey Joe Manchin Rusty Hollen Other cand Undecided WV03 HOUSE VOTE w/o LEANERS Miller 7 2 Q1-2. WV03 SENATE VOTE WITH LEANERS Patrick Morrisey Joe Manchin Rusty Hollen Other cand Undecided Ojeda 8 Other- Undec Q1-2. WV03 HOUSE VOTE WITH LEANERS Carol Miller Richard Ojeda Other cand Undecided Q1-2. WV03 HOUSE VOTE WITH LEANERS Carol Miller Richard Ojeda Other cand Undecided WV03 SENATE VOTE w/o LEANERS Morrisey 9 Page 1

11 Q1-2. WV03 HOUSE VOTE WITH LEANERS Carol Miller Richard Ojeda Other cand Undecided Manchin Other- Undec Con Mod Lib Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable Carol Miller favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of her? No opinion WV03 SENATE VOTE w/o LEANERS Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable Carol Miller favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of her? No opinion Manchin Other- Undec Miller Ojeda Other- Undec Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable Carol Miller favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of her? No opinion Con Mod Lib Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Richard Ojeda favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Morrisey WV03 SENATE VOTE w/o LEANERS Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Richard Ojeda favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Morrisey Page 2

12 Manchin Other- Undec Miller Ojeda Other- Undec Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable Richard Ojeda favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Page 3

13 Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Page 4

14 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of\opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of\opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of\opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Page 5

15 Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter Con Mod Lib Q11. Do you think Carol Miller Does does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not you? Q11. Do you think Carol Miller Does does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not you? Morrisey Manchin Other- Undec Miller Ojeda Other- Undec Q11. Do you think Carol Miller Does does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not you? Page 6

16 Con Mod Lib Q12. Do you think Richard Ojeda Does does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not you? Q12. Do you think Richard Ojeda Does does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not you? Morrisey Manchin Other- Undec Miller Ojeda Other- Undec Q12. Do you think Richard Ojeda Does does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not you? Q13. Which candidate shares more of your values Carol Miller or Richard Ojeda, or do they share your values equally? Carol Miller Richard Ojeda Both equally (VOL) Neither one Q13. Which candidate shares more of your values Carol Miller or Richard Ojeda, or do they share your values equally? Carol Miller Richard Ojeda Both equally (VOL) Neither one Q13. Which candidate shares more of your values Carol Miller or Richard Ojeda, or do they share your values equally? Carol Miller Richard Ojeda Both equally (VOL) Neither one Page 7

17 Q14. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy Opioid addiction policy [VOL] Other Q14. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy Opioid addiction policy [VOL] Other Q14. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy Opioid addiction policy [VOL] Other Page 8

18 Q15. Have you heard that Carol Miller was recently endorsed by Donald Trump, or havent you heard about this? Heard Not heard Q15. Have you heard that Carol Miller was recently endorsed by Donald Trump, or havent you heard about this? Heard Not heard WV03 SENATE VOTE w/o LEANERS Morrisey 8 1 Q15. Have you heard that Carol Miller was recently endorsed by Donald Trump, or havent you heard about this? Heard Not heard Manchin Other- Undec Q15A. Does Trumps endorsement make you more likely to support Miller, less likely to support Miller, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Miller Less likely to support Miller Does not change vote choice Male Female Q15A. Does Trumps endorsement make you more likely to support Miller, less likely to support Miller, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Miller Less likely to support Miller Does not change vote choice Q15A. Does Trumps endorsement make you more likely to support Miller, less likely to support Miller, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Miller Less likely to support Miller Does not change vote choice Page 9

19 Q16. Have you heard that Donald Trump recently called Richard Ojeda a wacko and stone-cold crazy, or havent you heard about this? Heard Not heard Q16. Have you heard that Donald Trump recently called Richard Ojeda a wacko and stone-cold crazy, or havent you heard about this? Heard Not heard WV03 SENATE VOTE w/o LEANERS Morrisey 4 5 Q16. Have you heard that Donald Trump recently called Richard Ojeda a wacko and stone-cold crazy, or havent you heard about this? Heard Not heard Manchin Other- Undec Q16A. Does Trumps statement make you more likely to support Ojeda, less likely to support Ojeda, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Ojeda Less likely to support Ojeda Does not change vote choice Male Female Q16A. Does Trumps statement make you more likely to support Ojeda, less likely to support Ojeda, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Ojeda Less likely to support Ojeda Does not change vote choice Q16A. Does Trumps statement make you more likely to support Ojeda, less likely to support Ojeda, or does it not change your vote choice either way? More likely to support Ojeda Less likely to support Ojeda Does not change vote choice Page 10

20 Male Female Q17. Turning to the U.S. Senate race, has anything thats happened in the last few weeks related to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court caused you to change your mind about who you will support in election for U.S. Senate, or hasnt it? Yes, more likely to support Morrisey Yes, more likely to support Manchin Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind Q17. Turning to the U.S. Senate race, has anything thats happened in the last few weeks related to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court caused you to change your mind about who you will support in election for U.S. Senate, or hasnt it? Yes, more likely to support Morrisey Yes, more likely to support Manchin Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind Q17. Turning to the U.S. Senate race, has anything thats happened in the last few weeks related to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court caused you to change your mind about who you will support in election for U.S. Senate, or hasnt it? Yes, more likely to support Morrisey Yes, more likely to support Manchin Yes, more undecided No, has not changed my mind Page 11