Red Oak Strategic Presidential Poll

Transcription

1 Red Oak Strategic Presidential Poll Fielded 9/1-9/2 Using Google Consumer Surveys Results, Crosstabs, and Technical Appendix 1 This document contains the full crosstab results for Red Oak Strategic s Presidential Poll, fielded September 1st and 2nd, 2016, using Google Consumer Surveys. Question 1 is a screening question, so we report the simple unweighted distribution of answers. For the following questions, all crosstabs are subsetted to respondents who are "somewhat" or "very" likely to vote, with weighting based on age, gender, and region so the sample better reflects the demographic distributions of the United States population of Internet users. Following the crosstabs, a technical appendix contains information on weighting, margin of error and other aspects of the survey. Q1 [Screening Question]: Presidential Election?" "How likely are you to vote in the November US Very likely 65.2% Somewhat Likely 7.8% Not Likely 8.4% Not Registered 7.3% Other / Don t Know 11.3% Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?" Results from previous survey (fielded 8/18-8/19) displayed in middle column, with difference from current poll results in right column. Hillary Clinton 34.1% 37.4% 3.3% Donald Trump 31.6% 30.4% +1.2% Gary Johnson 9.4% 10.4% 1.0% Other / Don t Know 24.9% 21.8% +3.1% 1 Max Samels, Data Analyst

2 2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate Hillary Clinton 45.3% 47.9% 2.6% Donald Trump 42.1% 38.9% +3.2% Gary Johnson 12.5% 13.3% 0.8% Margin of error ± 4.1% N= preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate Hillary Clinton 51.8% 55.2% 3.4% Donald Trump 48.2% 44.8% +3.4% Margin of error ± 4.4% N=614 Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender. Q3: "This November, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in your Congressional district?" 2016 preferences by 2016 Congressional vote Democrat 34.5% Republican 35.7% Other / Don t Know 29.8% 2016 CD Vote Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don t know Democrat 84.8% 1.8% 3.9% 9.5% Republican 3.4% 75.7% 7.6% 13.2% Other / Don t Know 12.0% 13.2% 18.0% 56.8% Q4: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?" Barack Obama 42.4% Mitt Romney 34.6% Don t recall / Other / Didn t vote 23.0%

3 2016 preferences by 2012 vote 2012 Vote Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don t know Barack Obama 69.9% 6.7% 4.8% 18.6% Mitt Romney 3.6% 66.4% 11.3% 18.7% Other / Don t Recall 14.0% 25.2% 15.0% 45.8% Q5: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?" 2016 preferences by ideological identification Conservative 27.2% Liberal 21.8% Moderate 34.5% Don t Know / Other 16.6% Ideology Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don t know Liberal 74.1% 3.1% 7.0% 15.7% Conservative 3.6% 73.2% 5.9% 17.3% Moderate 37.9% 23.3% 15.1% 23.7% Other / Don t Know 23.4% 18.2% 6.4% 52.0% Q6: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?" 2016 preferences by party affiliation Democrat 25.6% Republican 28.5% Independent 32.3% Don t Know / Other 13.6% Margin of error ± 3.4 % N=926 Party Identification Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don t know Democrat 82.8% 3.5% 3.7% 10.1% Republican 3.6% 69.8% 8.4% 18.1% Independent 30.9% 26.4% 14.2% 28.5% Other / Don t Know 13.6% 17.1% 10.9% 58.4%

4 Q7: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?" 2016 preferences by education Did not graduate High School 1.2% High School Graduate 11.8% Some college or 2-year college degree 30.7% 4 years college degree / postgraduate degree 56.3% Level of Education Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don t know Did not graduate 15.4% 22.9% 13.6% 48.1% High School High School Graduate 21.9% 42.6% 7.3% 28.2% Some college or 2-year 25.3% 39.6% 7.8% 27.3% college degree 4 years college degree 41.8% 25.2% 10.7% 22.4% / postgraduate degree Q8: "What is your race or ethnic group?" 2016 preferences by race / ethnicity Black 3.6% White 74.1% Hispanic 4.4% Other / Don t wish to answer 17.9% Race Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other Don t know Black 68.5% 16.9% 2.6% 12.0% White 34.2% 33.9% 9.4% 22.5% Hispanic 32.1% 21.3% 18.0% 28.7% Other 27.0% 27.8% 8.8% 36.4% / Don t wish to answer

5 Technical Appendix Weighting and Coverage Error The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender, age or region could not be imputed were not included in our final sample. This population without demographic data amounted to 228 out of 1549 respondents to our survey. This survey s main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without access to the Internet or a smartphone. Statistical Error and Sample Size The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of established polling firms. 2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the maximum size of one half of the 95% confidence interval for each cell in the table with a substantive response (i.e. not Don t know / Other). We then multiply this number by the design bias, which in this case is In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data N = 926. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well. For tables which break down 2016 preference by demographic characteristic and therefore use smaller samples to estimate cells, the error for those cells grows accordingly. Response Rate The response rate for this survey was approximately 6.2%. After running our survey, we were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the first question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the overall response rate. 2 "AAPOR Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for Public Opinion Researchers, accessed 8/9/16 3 Design bias defined as 1 + ( SD(W eights) Mean(W eights) )2