The Cook Political Report / LSU Manship School Midterm Election Poll

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1 The Cook Political Report / LSU Manship School Midterm Election Poll The Cook Political Report-LSU Manship School poll, a national survey with an oversample of voters in the most competitive U.S. House districts, goes beyond tracking the lead in the vote for Congress to offer insights into what underlies the election. Democrats lead in the battleground that will determine control of the U.S. House. Democrats lead in the battleground districts that will decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Among registered voters in the 72 most competitive districts, as rated by the Cook Political Report, Democrats lead s This 12-point advantage has a margin of error of +/- 9 points. Nationally, the advantage among registered voters is 7 points with a margin of error of +/- 6 points. These competitive districts, the vast majority of which are held by s, also have the highest levels of anti-incumbent sentiment. Where incumbents are on the ballot in these districts, 58 percent of registered voters say their own member of congress deserves to be voted out of office. In contrast, registered voters across the country as a whole split evenly between those who think their own member deserves reelection and those who think they deserve to be voted out of office. President Trump is weighing down prospects in the House battleground Most voters say that President Trump will be a factor in how they vote in the midterm elections, and in competitive districts these voters break nearly two to one in saying that they are voting to show opposition to the president (42 percent) versus voting to show support for the president (23 percent). The president s net approval rating in competitive districts, all but four of which are seats, is -24, much worse than his +12 net approval rating among registered voters in safer districts. When presented with a pro-democrat message ( We should put Democrats in the majority to keep President Trump in check ) and a pro- message ( We should keep s in the majority to keep the economy strong ), 56 percent of registered voters in these competitive districts say the former comes closer to their own view while 42 percent say the latter feels like 2010, in reverse Today, 49 percent of Americans feel frustrated about Donald Trump s presidency the same share who said they felt frustrated about Barack Obama s presidency during the first round of midterm elections in his administration. Indeed, the shares who today say they feel excited (14 percent vs 8 percent in 2010), proud (17 percent vs 12 percent in 2010), hopeful (27 percent vs 32 percent), and helpless (29 percent vs 22 percent) about the presidency are quite close to those from eight years ago. The exception is an uptick in anger, from 25 percent in 2010 to 39 percent today. 1

2 The overall similarities in the aggregate mood masks a partisan swap since In 2010, 55 percent of Democrats and just 8 percent of s said they felt hopeful about the Obama presidency. Today, 5 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of s feel hopeful about the Trump presidency. Similarly, frustration with the presidency grew from 37 percent in 2010 to 74 percent this year, while it fell among s from 70 percent to 21 percent. Democrats have edge on interest, but not necessarily turnout Continuing the pattern of 2010 in reverse, interest in the campaign among Democrats exceeds s. Today, 56 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of s have a great deal or quite a bit of interest in following news about the congressional election campaigns. Eight years ago, s led Democrats 53 percent to 40 percent. Additionally, Democrats report engaging in more activities that are political over the past year than s including attending a protest, contacting an elected official, and signing or circulating a petition. Despite this activity, Democrats do not express a greater likelihood to vote in the midterm elections than s. Seventy-five percent of Democrats either report that they have voted early or indicate a high likelihood of voting in the election, but 79 percent of s do so as well. Of course, turnout among voters often lags behind s in midterm elections. Closing that gap in this election marks a significant change for Democrats, but it does not indicate that enthusiasm will exceed that of s on Election Day. Americans confidence in integrity of elections varies by party and media sources Most Americans (77 percent) are at least somewhat confident that their votes will be counted accurately. When it comes to the threat of interference from a foreign government in November s elections, 52 percent say such interference is not very likely or not likely at all versus 44 percent who say it is likely or very likely. Most Americans (59 percent) also think that voter fraud happens only rarely or occasionally, while 39 percent say it happens somewhat often or very often. Fifty-four percent of Americans who prefer to get their news from a print newspaper say they are very confident their votes will be counted accurately. However, only 34 percent of those who prefer to get their news from websites or smartphone apps and only 29 percent of those who prefer to get their news from social networking sites express the same confidence. Although s and Democrats share confidence in the accuracy of the vote count, they split over potential threats to the integrity of our elections. Democrats are more likely to say that foreign interference poses a greater threat to our elections than voter fraud 64 percent say foreign interference is likely or very likely, but only 38 percent say voter fraud happens somewhat often or very often. s are more likely to say voter fraud poses a greater threat 52 percent say fraud happens somewhat often or very often, and just 24 percent say foreign interference is likely or very likely. Economy and health care top voter concerns, while immigration, trade and guns lag The economy and health care top the list of issues voters consider very important at 70 percent and 68 percent, respectively. In contrast, recent hot-button issues such as trade, immigration and guns rank relatively low in voters minds at 36 percent, 45 percent and 48 percent. 2

3 The parties diverge somewhat over which issue tops the list. Among s, the economy is the top concern with 79 percent saying it is very important. Among Democrats, health care tops at 80 percent saying it is very important. Evaluating President Trump and looking ahead to 2020 Many Americans including both Democrats and s said they feel Donald Trump falls short on the traits they consider important for a president to have. For example, the vast majority of Americans (94 percent) think honesty is a somewhat important or very important quality of a president. Yet just 31 percent of Americans feel that the term honest describes President Trump somewhat well or very well. The pattern repeats across 13 additional traits featured in this survey: likable, decisive, strong, compassionate, ethical, intelligent, willing to compromise, straight-talker, patriotic, down to earth, cares about people like you, shares your values and unifying. The pattern holds both for Democrats and, to a lesser extent, for s. The biggest gaps between what Americans say is an important presidential quality and what they perceive in President Trump are for honest, ethical and unifying. The smallest gaps are for patriotic, decisive and strong. Nationally, 62 percent of Americans say they think President Trump deserves to be voted out of office in 2020, and 35 percent say he deserves to be reelected. These responses closely follow the president s approval ratings, which stand at 56 percent disapproval and 36 percent approval in this poll. While most s (78 percent) say he deserves to be reelected in 2020, a sizable share of s (41 percent) said they would nevertheless like to see the president face a serious primary challenge. This is especially high among s in the battleground U.S. House districts, who split evenly between those who want to see a serious primary challenge (48 percent) and those who do not (49 percent). 3

4 Methodological Report The Cook Political Report-LSU Manship School poll was conducted October 10 to October 19, 2018 among a probability sample of 1,486 adult residents of the United States. The total sample includes an oversample of 742 adult residents of congressional districts The Cook Political Report classifies as tossup (215), lean or lean Democrat (278), and likely or likely Democrat (249). This approach yielded responses from 69 of the 72 districts currently classified as tossup or leaning. Sixty-five of these competitive districts are seats and four are seats. Ipsos Public Affairs conducted sampling and data collection for the survey using the web-enabled KnowledgePanel, a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and residential addresses. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone or by mail to participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have internet access, Ipsos Public Affairs provides a laptop and ISP connection at no cost. People who already have computers and internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent s throughout each month inviting them to participate in research. Ipsos Public Affairs also conducted the statistical weighting to adjust for differences between sample and known population characteristics that arise from probability sampling as well as differential rates of participation in surveys. Starting with the base weights of the sample fielded, respondents were weighted to represent the age 18+ population with geo-demographics controlled within the targeted and remaining congressional district groups on age by gender, race/ethnicity, census region, metropolitan status, education and household income. The design effect, which captures the difference from a simple random sample due to sampling design and weighting, is The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups as indicated in tables below. In addition to sampling error, as accounted for through the margin of error, readers should recognize that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Certain questions included in this survey are repeated from a national 2010 midterm election poll also conducted using the KnowledgePanel. When necessary, these questions were updated with the name of the current president. The survey was funded by philanthropic supporters of Louisiana State University s Manship School of Mass Communication and the Reilly Center for Media & Public Affairs. 4

5 Notes for Reading Tables 1. Cells contain weighted response frequencies as percentages. Percentages may not always sum to 100 due to rounding or because select questions allow for multiple responses (as indicated). 2. Sample size in each column is an unweighted count of respondents. 3. The margins of error displayed in columns are for a single estimate from the specified sample in the column; margins of error for comparing multiple estimates from a column or across columns (i.e., the difference between candidates and candidates vote share) will be larger. Columns displaying responses for Democrats and s include individuals who initially do not identify with either party but say they lean closer to one when probed. 4. Voter registration is based on self-report. 5

6 Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? [Respondents who answered Have mixed feelings were probed with: If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approve or disapprove? but also allowed to answer Still have mixed feelings. Leaners grouped with somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove.] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Strongly approve Somewhat approve Have mixed feelings Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Strongly approve Somewhat approve Have mixed feelings Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove

7 Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way Congress is handling its job? [Respondents who answered Have mixed feelings were probed with: If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approve or disapprove? but also allowed to answer Still have mixed feelings. Leaners grouped with somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove.] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Strongly approve Somewhat approve Have mixed feelings Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Strongly approve Somewhat approve Have mixed feelings Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove

8 Regardless of how you will vote, do you think your own member of Congress [Results shown for respondents in districts with incumbents on the ballot only] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Margin of error +/- 3 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 10 Sample size 1, Refused Deserves to be re-elected Deserves to be voted out of office Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Margin of error +/- 3 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 4 +/- 4 +/- 8 Sample size 1, Refused Deserves to be re-elected Deserves to be voted out of office

9 Thinking ahead to 2020, regardless of how you might vote, do you think President Trump (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Deserves to be re-elected Deserves to be voted out of office Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Deserves to be re-elected Deserves to be voted out of office

10 How much interest do you have in following news about the congressional election campaigns? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused A great deal Quite a bit Only some Very little No interest at all Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused A great deal Quite a bit Only some Very little No interest at all

11 On November 6, 2018, midterm elections will be held. Using a 1-to-10 scale, where 10 means you are completely certain you will vote and 1 means you are completely certain you will NOT vote, how likely are you to vote in the upcoming midterm election? You can use any number between 1 and 10 to indicate how strongly you feel about your likelihood to vote. [Asked to respondents who did not report voting early to: Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not? Responses to likelihood question collapsed into three categories plus a fourth category for early voters.] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused (Certain will not vote) to (Certain will vote) Already voted Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused (Certain will not vote) to (Certain will vote) Already voted

12 If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for [Asked to respondents who did not report voting early. Respondents who did not select a candidate were probed with If you had to choose, toward which one do you lean more? Early voters were asked In the 2018 election for U.S. House of Representatives, for whom did you vote? Results include responses to probe.] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused The candidate The candidate Someone else Don't know Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused The candidate The candidate Someone else Don't know

13 Will your vote for Congress be at least in part [Asked to respondents who did not report voting early and who did not say they were certain they would not vote. Early voters asked: Was your vote for Congress at least in part ] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Margin of error +/- 3 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 4 +/- 4 +/- 13 Sample size 1, Refused To show OPPOSITION to President Trump To show SUPPORT for President Trump Or is President Trump not a factor Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Margin of error +/- 3 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 5 +/- 4 +/- 4 +/- 12 Sample size 1, Refused To show OPPOSITION to President Trump To show SUPPORT for President Trump Or is President Trump not a factor

14 [Randomize order of bracketed text.] Some people have said that [we need to elect a Congress in order to provide a check and balance to keep President Trump and s in Congress from going too far.] Others have said that [if Democrats take over Congress they will reverse the tax cuts and other things that have enabled our economy to grow so much this year.] [Order of response options matched order in which bracketed texts appear in question wording.] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused We should put Democrats in the majority to keep President Trump in check. We should keep s in the majority to keep the economy strong. Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused We should put Democrats in the majority to keep President Trump in check. We should keep s in the majority to keep the economy strong. 14

15 How confident are you that your vote in the November elections will be counted accurately? [If respondents said they were certain not to vote above, they were asked If you were to vote, how confident are you that your vote in the November elections would be counted accurately? ] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident

16 (Preferred news source) Print Newspaper Radio Local Network Television National Network Television Cable Television Social Media Websites / Apps Margin of error +/- 9 +/- 9 +/- 6 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 11 +/- 6 Sample size Refused Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Adults (Preferred news source) Print Newspaper Radio Local Network Television National Network Television Cable Television Social Media Websites / Apps Margin of error +/- 9 +/- 8 +/- 5 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 10 +/- 6 Sample size Refused Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident

17 How likely do you think there will be interference from a foreign government in November's congressional elections? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Very likely Likely Not very likely Not likely at all Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Very likely Likely Not very likely Not likely at all

18 (Preferred news source) National Print Newspaper Radio Local Network Television Network Television Cable Television Social Media Websites / Apps Margin of error +/- 9 +/- 9 +/- 6 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 11 +/- 6 Sample size Refused Very likely Likely Not very likely Not likely at all Adults (Preferred news source) National Print Newspaper Radio Local Network Television Network Television Cable Television Social Media Websites / Apps Margin of error +/- 9 +/- 8 +/- 5 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 10 +/- 6 Sample size Refused Very likely Likely Not very likely Not likely at all

19 Thinking about voter fraud - like the same person voting multiple times or someone voting who is not eligible - do you think this happens (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Very often Somewhat often Occasionally Rarely Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Very often Somewhat often Occasionally Rarely

20 (Preferred news source) National Print Newspaper Radio Local Network Television Network Television Cable Television Social Media Websites / Apps Margin of error +/- 9 +/- 9 +/- 6 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 11 +/- 6 Sample size Refused Very often Somewhat often Occasionally Rarely Adults (Preferred news source) National Print Newspaper Radio Local Network Television Network Television Cable Television Social Media Websites / Apps Margin of error +/- 9 +/- 8 +/- 5 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 10 +/- 6 Sample size Refused Very often Somewhat often Occasionally Rarely

21 Have you ever? [Response options include Yes, within the last year, Yes, but longer than a year ago, and No. Tables displays frequencies for Yes, within the last year by activity.] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Contributed money to a candidate running for public office Attended a campaign event Volunteered or worked on behalf of a candidate Attended an organized protest of any kind Contacted any elected official Signed or circulated a petition Been an active member of any group that tries to influence government or public policy, NOT INCLUDING a political party Adults (Lean & 21 Democrats s Neither Contributed money to a candidate running for public office Attended a campaign event Volunteered or worked on behalf of a candidate Attended an organized protest of any kind Contacted any elected official Signed or circulated a petition Been an active member of any group that tries to influence government or public policy, NOT INCLUDING a political party

22 Do any of the following words describe how you feel about Donald Trump s presidency so far? Check all that apply. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Excited Frustrated Angry Proud Hopeful Helpless None of the above Refused Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Excited Frustrated Angry Proud Hopeful Helpless None of the above Refused

23 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Likable? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

24 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Decisive? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

25 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Strong? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

26 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Honest? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

27 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Compassionate? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

28 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Ethical? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

29 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Intelligent? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

30 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Willing to compromise? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

31 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Straight talker? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

32 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Patriotic? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

33 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Down to earth? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

34 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Cares about people like you? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

35 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Shares your values? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

36 How important is each of the following qualities of a president to you personally Unifying? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

37 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Likable. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

38 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Decisive. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

39 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Strong. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

40 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Honest. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

41 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Compassionate. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

42 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Ethical. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

43 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Intelligent. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

44 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Willing to compromise. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

45 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Straight talker. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

46 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Patriotic. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

47 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Down to earth. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

48 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Cares about people like you. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

49 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Shares your values. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

50 Please tell me how well each word or phrase describes President Trump Unifying. (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all well Slightly well Somewhat well Very well

51 Do you think that working in politics for many years makes a person a better president of the United States, a worse president, or does it have no impact on how good a job a person would do as president? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Much better Somewhat better Has no impact Somewhat worse Much worse Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Much better Somewhat better Has no impact Somewhat worse Much worse

52 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Crime? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

53 How important is each of the following issues to you personally The economy? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

54 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Health care? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

55 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Immigration? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

56 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Taxes? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

57 How important is each of the following issues to you personally The environment? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

58 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Racial equality? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

59 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Guns? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

60 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Education? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

61 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Income inequality? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

62 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Terrorism? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

63 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Abortion? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

64 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Trade? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

65 How important is each of the following issues to you personally National security? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

66 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Government ethics? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

67 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Family values? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

68 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Gender equality? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

69 How important is each of the following issues to you personally Jobs? (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Refused Not at all important Slightly important Somewhat important Very important

70 Thinking ahead to 2020, would you like to see Donald Trump face a serious challenge in the 2020 presidential primaries from another candidate, or not? [Asked only to s and independents who lean to Party.] (Lean & Democrats s Neither Margin of error +/- 4 +/- 8 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 4 Sample size Refused Yes No Total Adults (Lean & Democrats s Neither Margin of error +/- 4 +/- 7 +/- 7 +/- 6 +/- 4 Sample size Refused Yes No Total

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