March 7, Enthusiasm gap and preferences in generic ballot and control of Congress favor Democrats in several House races.

Transcription

1 March 7, 2018 Blue Wave looms in Va congressional midterms; 50% believe Trump campaigners colluded with Russia; Va. voters support Dreamers, oppose offshore drilling Summary of Key Findings 1. Energized by backlash to President Trump, significantly more ocrats (60%) than ublicans (45%) are very enthusiastic about voting in November % of voters think individuals in the Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. 3. s prefer ocrats to ublicans on the generic ballot (45%-33%) and want ocrats to control Congress after the election (51%-38%). Those gaps widen to more than 20 points among likely voters. 4. Enthusiasm gap and preferences in generic ballot and control of Congress favor ocrats in several House races. 5. Virginia voters overwhelmingly support the Dream Act (71%-25%); strongly oppose offshore oil drilling (54%-37%); and split evenly on the 2018 tax cut bill (45% approve-47% disapprove). For further information contact: Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director qkidd@cnu.edu O: (757) Wason Center for Public Policy M: (757) Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director rachel.bitecofer@cnu.edu O: (757) Wason Center for Public Policy M: (541)

2 Analysis The president s party often loses seats in midterm elections, but the midterm advantage for Virginia ocrats in the 2018 congressional elections looks especially strong. Among registered voters overall, ocrats hold a 15-point enthusiasm advantage over ublicans, with 60% of ocrats indicating they are very enthusiastic about voting this November, compared with 45% of ublicans. In addition, ocrats hold double-digit advantages on two metrics used to anticipate the midterm effect: generic ballot preference and control of Congress. Asked if they will vote for a ublican or ocratic candidate for the House of resentatives, 45% say ocratic, while 33% say ublican. Asked to indicate a preference for party control of Congress after the election, 51% say ocrats, while 38% say ublicans. Among the 825 registered voters saying they are very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, ocrats lead by 23% on the generic ballot test and 26% on the control of Congress test. The question is no longer whether there is a Blue Wave coming, but rather, how high the storm surge will get, said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. This enthusiasm gap in favor of ocrats suggests several House seats currently held by ublicans could be in play, such as the 1 st, 2 nd, 7 th, and 10 th districts. s were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump, congressional ublicans, congressional ocrats, the FBI, and the Department of Justice. Trump s favorability rating stands at 35%, while ratings for the ublicans in Congress came in at 28%. Congressional ocrats fare better, with a favorability rating of 42%. s rated the FBI and the Department of Justice highest, at 63% and 53%, respectively. However, it appears both agencies have been affected by criticism from the president, as only 47% of ublicans approve of the FBI, compared with 76% of ocrats and 67% of ependents. Virginia voters overwhelmingly support the Dream Act (71%-25%), which provides a pathway to legal status or citizenship for children brought into the country illegally by their parents. s strongly oppose drilling for oil off Virginia s coast (54%-37%), a ban on which was recently lifted by President Trump. And they are evenly divided on the recently enacted Tax Cut and Reform Bill (45%-47%). Half of the voters (50%) say they believe individuals in the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government to interfere in the 2016 election, while 42% said they do not believe any coordination happened. identification is a strong determinant, with 81% of ublicans rejecting the idea of collusion and 81% of ocrats believing it. ependents are evenly split. From the enthusiasm gap to the Dream Act to collusion with the Russians, a sharp partisan divide is evident among Virginia voters, said Quentin Kidd, the Center s director. Nine months out, it looks like we re setting up for a base election with ocrats holding an upper hand. 2

3 Questions 1, 2, TRUMP, 3 (a,b,c, & d), 5, 6, 7 & 8 released March 5. Q3: I d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. [ROTATE NAMES] Favorable Unfavorable No opinion/dk e. Congressional ocrats f. Congressional ublicans g. President Donald Trump h. The FBI i. The Department of Justice Q4: As you know elections for Congress and the U.S. Senate will be held this November. How enthusiastic are about voting in the elections this year, would you say Black White Very Somewhat Not too Not Dk/Ref (vol) GENERIC: [ASK ALL] If the 2018 congressional election was held today which party s candidate would you vote for? Would you vote for the. [ROTATE CHOICES] White males White females Moderate Other Dk/Ref (vol)

4 CONTROL: After the 2018 congressional elections are finished which party would you like to see in control of Congress? Would it be [ROTATE CHOICES] White males White females Moderate ublican ocratic Dk/Ref (vol) Q9: Recently President Trump issued an executive order to remove the ban on offshore oil drilling, including on Virginia s coast. Do you approve or disapprove of drilling for oil off of Virginia s coast? [INTERVIEWER: After respondent answers clarify with strongly or somewhat] 1. Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove DK/Refused 9 Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the Dream Act-which provides a pathway to legal status or citizenship to children who were brought into the country illegally by their parents? [INTERVIEWER: After respondent answers clarify with strongly or somewhat] 1. Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove DK/Refused 4 Q11. Recently ublicans in Congress and President Trump enacted the Tax Cut and Reform bill. Based on what you have seen, read, or heard about the tax reform law do you approve or disapprove of it? [INTERVIEWER: After respondent answers clarify with strongly or somewhat] 1. Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove DK/Refused 8 4

5 Q13: Based on what you have seen, read, and heard so far, do you believe that individuals in the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government to interfere in the 2016 presidential election, or not? Yes, definitely Yes, probably No Dk/Ref (vol) Likely Analysis by Congressional District, Overall N=825 GENERIC: [ASK ALL] If the 2018 congressional election was held today which party s candidate would you vote for? Would you vote for the. [ROTATE CHOICES] 11th CD 10th CD 9th CD 8th CD 7th CD 6 th CD 5th CD 4 th CD 3 nd CD 2 nd CD 1 st CD Other Dk/Ref (vol) N MofE +/-4 +/-10 +/-10 +/-10 +/-11 +/-12 +/-13 +/-11 +/-11 +/-19 +/-10 +/-11 CONTROL: After the 2018 congressional elections are finished which party would you like to see in control of Congress? Would it be [ROTATE CHOICES] 11th CD 10th CD 9th CD 8th CD 7th CD 6 th CD 5th CD 4 th CD 3 nd CD 2 nd CD 1 st CD ublican ocratic Dk/Ref (vol) N MofE +/-4 +/-10 +/-10 +/-10 +/-11 +/-13 +/-10 +/-11 +/-11 +/-18 +/-10 +/-11 5

6 ographics EDUC: High school or less 12 Some college 19 Vocational or technical training 2 College graduate 40 Graduate study or more 27 HISPANIC: Yes 5 No 95 RACE: White 72 Black or African American 19 Other 9 MIL OR RETIRED MIL IN HOUSE: Yes 33 No 67 AGE: & older 41 PARTYID: ublican 27 ocrat 32 ependent 38 No preference (vol) 2 Other party (vol) <1 Dk/ref (vol) <1 [IF OTHER THAN REP OR DEM ABOVE] PARTLEAN: ublican 44 ocratic 35 ependent 21 RELIG: Christian 75 Jewish 1 Muslim 1 Other 12 No Preference 10 Dk/ref (vol) 1 IDEOL: Strong liberal 8 10 Moderate, leaning liberal 23 Moderate, leaning conservative Strong 9 Dk/ref (vol) 6 INCOME: Under $25,000 4 $25-$49, $50-$74, $75-$99, $100,000-$149, Over $150, Dk/ref (vol) 12 REGION (defined by DMA): Northern Virginia 34 Richmond/Central 21 Hampton Roads 24 South/Southwest 21 SEX (interviewer coded): Male 49 Female 51 6

7 How the survey was conducted: The results of this poll are based on 1,562 interviews of registered Virginia voters, including 763 on landline and 799 on cell phone, conducted February 5-28, Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/- 2.5 % at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population s view on that issue is somewhere between 47.5% and 52.5%. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey s design effect, which is 1.1 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 20%. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the population of registered voters in Virginia. 7