Before the Storm: The Presidential Race October 25-28, 2012

Transcription

1 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: October 30, :30 PM EDT Before the Storm: The Presidential Race October 25-28, 2012 In polling conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast, the presidential contest shows little movement and remains close. President Barack Obama holds just a one point lead over Mitt Romney, within the poll s margin of error. In this poll, Romney is viewed as stronger on the economy. The President does better on foreign policy areas, but his lead over Romney has narrowed on some measures. President Obama continues to have an advantage on empathy, but more see Romney as a strong leader. Women now support President Obama by eight points, while Romney has a seven point lead among men. Independents support Romney as well. The Presidential Race The poll was conducted in the days before Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the East Coast. In the poll, the presidential election remains close and little changed. President Obama has just a one point lead among likely voters, within the poll s margin of error. Results of a CBS News Poll released last week were similar Vote for President 10/30 10/22 9/2012 Barack Obama 48% 48 % 49% Mitt Romney Undecided With just a week to go before the election, 10% of likely voters are still uncommitted, saying they are either undecided or could change their minds about who to vote for. Enthusiasm about voting is higher among supporters of Mitt Romney than it is among those supporting President Obama. Enthusiastic about Voting Obama voters Romney voters Very 59% 68% Somewhat Not too/not at all Most likely voters now claim to be paying a lot of attention to the campaign, including similar percentages of Obama and Romney voters. 1

2 Attention to the Campaign Obama voters Romney voters A lot 78% 79% Some Not much/none 5 1 About nine in 10 of each candidate s supporters say their mind is made up. Who is Supporting Who? There is still a gender gap in the race: women support the President, while men support Romney, although each candidate s lead is in single digits. Each candidate gets strong support from their respective political parties, but Mitt Romney now holds a lead among the swing voting group of independents. Romney retains the support of white voters, while the President enjoys strong support from nonwhites. Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were? Obama Romney Total 48% 47% Men 44% 51 Women 52% 44 Republicans 6% 91 Democrats 93% 5 Independents 39% 51 Whites 39% 56 Non-whites 83% 14 The Candidates on the Issues Mitt Romney now leads the president on the economy by six points; the two candidates were running closer on this issue earlier this month. Romney continues his advantage on handling the deficit (and has widened it). He also leads the President on handling illegal immigration. President Obama leads his Republican rival on foreign policy and terrorism, but his lead on those issues has narrowed. He also has an advantage on the issues of Medicare and abortion. The candidates are close on taxes and health care. 2

3 Who Will Do a Better Job? Now Previously Obama Romney Obama Romney Economy and jobs 45% 51 45% 48 (10/22) Foreign policy 49% 44 50% 41 (10/22) Terrorism & security 49% 44 49% 42 (10/22) Budget deficit 39% 54 42% 48 (10/22) Health care 48% 45 50% 46 (9/14) Taxes 46% 47 48% 46 (9/14) Medicare 51% 42 50% 43 (9/14) Abortion 51% 39 n/a n/a Illegal immigration 42% 48 n/a n/a The President continues to be seen as the candidate who would do more to help the middle class. Who Will Do More to Help the Middle Class? Now 9/14 Obama 52% 54% Romney Romney, however, has an advantage on the issue of bipartisanship. By a large margin, voters think Romney rather than the President would work better with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Who Will Work Better with Republicans & Democrats In Congress? All Reps Dems Inds Obama 39% 6% 80% 27% Romney Voters views of the two candidates differ sharply on corporate taxes. 80% think President Obama would raise taxes on business if he were re-elected; 70% think Mitt Romney would not do so if he becomes president. About half think each man would raise taxes on people like them if elected. Would He Raise Taxes on People like you Businesses Obama would 50% 80% Obama would not Romney would 52% 23% Romney would not Candidate Qualities As has been the case throughout this campaign, President Obama continues to have an advantage over Romney on empathy: A majority says he understands the needs and problems of people like them. The President enjoys an even larger advantage when asked specifically 3

4 about the needs of women in the workforce. However, more voters think Romney has strong qualities of leadership than say that about the President. Obama vs. Romney: Empathy and Leadership Obama Romney Strong qualities of leadership Yes 59% 67% No Understands needs and problems Yes 59% 49% No Understands needs & problems of women in workforce Yes 66% 46% No But some voters perceive Romney as pandering to voters. 54% of likely voters say Romney says what people want to hear, while 42% thinks he says what he believes. Views of the President on this characteristic are more closely divided. Do the Candidates Mostly Say Obama Romney What he believes 50% 42% What people want to hear On handling an international crisis, more voters express a lot of confidence in the President than in Romney. Confidence in Handling an International Crisis Barack Obama Mitt Romney Now 10/22 Now 10/22 A lot 40% 38% 30% 30% Some A little None at all More than half of voters think each candidate has made it clear what he would accomplish if elected, but four in ten disagree. Made Clear What They Would Accomplish Obama Romney Yes 57% 53% No Overall, more than four in 10 likely voters describe each candidate s positions as being about right. 42% think the President s views are too liberal, while 35% think Romney s are too conservative. 4

5 Among moderates, six in 10 say the President s positions are about right. Fewer say that about Romney. In fact, 44% of moderates think Romney s positions are too conservative for them. The Debates Obama s Views on Issues All Lib Mod Cons Too liberal 42% 2% 31% 74% Not liberal enough About right Romney s Views on Issues All Lib Mod Cons Too conservative 35% 75% 44% 7% Not conservative enough About right Two in three likely voters say the presidential and vice presidential debates have been important in their presidential vote decision, including 34% who say the debates have been very important. Among those who say they were important, Romney has a slight lead, 51% to 45%, over President Obama. The President The Obama administration receives negative marks for their handling of the recent attacks in Libya. Just 39% of Americans approve of how they have handled that, and more, 45%, disapprove. About three in 4 Americans have heard or read a lot about the attacks. Obama Administration s Handling of Libya Attacks (Among all) All Reps Dems Inds Approve 39% 12% 66% 32% Disapprove Evaluations of the administration on this measure are more negative among likely voters. Just 38% of them approve, and 51% disapprove, including 57% of independents. The President s approval rating overall is 50%; 42% disapprove. This poll was conducted by telephone from October 25-28, 2012 among 898 adults nationwide, including 798 registered voters. The sample size for likely voters is 563. Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. CBS News and The New York Times originally intended for the interviewing for this poll to continue through Tuesday evening. By Sunday the demographic characteristics of the sample were similar to what would have been expected had interviewing continued. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. Among registered voters and likely voters, the error due to sampling could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 5

6 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Before the Storm: The Presidential Race October 25 28, 2012 >attn< How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? A lot Some Not much No attention so far DK/NA q1 Thinking about November's presidential election, overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting? Very Somewhat Not too Not at all DK/NA q2 Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election this year -- are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Same DK/NA q3 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q4/q5 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden or Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? If DEPENDS or DON T KNOW : Well as of today, do you lean more toward Barack Obama and Joe Biden or more toward Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan Won't vote (Vol.) Other (Vol.) DK/NA

7 q6 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? Obama Romney Total Voters Voters % % % Mind made up Too early to say for sure DK/NA q7 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q8 Would you describe your support for [Selected Candidate] as strongly favoring [Selected Candidate], or do you like [Selected Candidate] but with reservations, or do you support [Selected Candidate] because you dislike [Candidate NOT Selected]? * LIKELY VOTERS ** Obama Romney Total Voters Voters % % % Strongly favor Like but with reservations Dislike other candidate Don't know/no answer q9 Regardless of how you intend to vote for President in 2012, who do you expect to finally win the 2012 presidential election-mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Mitt Romney Barack Obama Depends (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q10 As far as making progress on the important issues facing the country is concerned, does it really matter who wins the 2012 presidential election, or will things be pretty much the same regardless of who is elected president? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Really matters who wins Things will pretty much same DK/NA

8 q12/q13 If the 2012 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?/ Well as of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or more toward the Democratic candidate? **** Party ID ***** Republican Democratic Other (vol.) Won't Vote (vol.) Depends (vol.) DK/NA q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? *** TOTAL RESPONDENTS *** Approve Disapprove DK/NA q15 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track DK/NA q16 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA q17 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA q18 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Approve Disapprove DK/NA

9 q19 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** ***** Party ID **** Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA q20 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same DK/NA q22 Which comes closest to your view about the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003? 1. The tax cuts should be continued for everyone. 2. The tax cuts should only continue for household incomes under $250,000 a year. 3. The tax cuts should expire for everyone. Continue for all Continue for under $250, Expire for all Don't know/no answer q23 Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. 2. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as guest workers, but not to apply for U.S. citizenship. 3. They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S. Allowed to stay and apply Stay as guest worker Required to leave Don't know/no answer q24 Overall, what do you think is the best way to reduce the federal budget deficit--by cutting federal spending, by increasing taxes, or by a combination of both? Cut federal spending Raising taxes Combination of both Don't know/no answer

10 q27 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q28 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q29 Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Joe Biden yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q30 Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Paul Ryan yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q31 In deciding how you will vote for President this year, which ONE of the following issues will be most important to you: 1. terrorism, 2. foreign policy, 3. the economy, 4. the budget deficit, 5. taxes, 6. health care, 7. education or 8. something else? Terrorism Foreign policy The economy Budget deficit Taxes Health care Education Something else DK/NA

11 q32 And which one of the following issues will be NEXT most important to you: 1. terrorism, 2. foreign policy, 3. the economy, 4. the budget deficit, 5. taxes, 6. health care, 7. education or 8. something else? AMONG LIKELY VOTERS WHO CHOSE ECONOMY AS TOP ISSUE IN Q31 % Terrorism 9 Foreign policy 15 The economy 2 Budget deficit 21 Taxes 13 Health care 27 Education 12 Something else 0 DK/NA 1 q33 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling each of the following issues - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and unemployment? Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q34 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would do a better job handling health care? Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q35 Which candidate do you think would do a better job handling the federal budget deficit -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling the federal budget deficit -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA

12 q36 Which candidate would do a better job handling foreign policy? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling foreign policy Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q37 Which candidate would do a better job handling taxes? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling taxes -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q38 Which candidate would do a better job handling Medicare? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling Medicare -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q39 Which candidate do you think would do more to help middle class Americans? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do more to help middle class Americans -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q40 Which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with the issue of abortion? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing the issue of abortion -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA

13 q41 Which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with illegal immigration? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with illegal immigration -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q42 Which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with terrorism and national security? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with terrorism and national security -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q43 Which candidate do you think would work better with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would work better with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q46 Do you think Barack Obama has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Has Does not have Don't know/no answer q47 Do you think Barack Obama does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q48 Do you think Barack Obama says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? Says what he believes What people want to hear Don't know/no answer

14 q49 How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama's ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all? A lot Some A little None at all Don't know/no answer q50 Do you think Barack Obama has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were re-elected President, or not? Clear Not clear Don't know/no answer q51 Do you think Barack Obama's views on most issues are too liberal for you, not liberal enough, or just about right? Too liberal Not liberal enough About right Don't know/no answer q52 How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama's ability to make appointments to the Supreme Court -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all? A lot Some A little None at all DK/NA q53 If he were re-elected President, do you think Barack Obama would raise taxes on people like yourself, or wouldn't he do that? Would Would not DK/NA q54 If he were re-elected President, do you think Barack Obama would raise taxes on big business, or wouldn't he do that? Would Would not DK/NA q55 Do you think Barack Obama understands the needs and problems of women in the work force, or not? Yes No Don't know/no answer

15 q58 Do you think Mitt Romney has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Has Does not have Don't know/no answer q59 Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q60 Do you think Mitt Romney says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? Says what he believes What people want to hear Don't know/no answer q61 How much confidence do you have in Mitt Romney's ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all? A lot Some A little None at all Don't know/no answer q62 Do you think Mitt Romney has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were elected president, or not? Yes No Don't know/no answer q63 Do you think Mitt Romney's views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Too conservative Not conservative enough About right Don't know/no answer q64 How much confidence do you have in Mitt Romney's ability to make appointments to the Supreme Court -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all? A lot Some A little None at all DK/NA

16 q65 If he were elected President, do you think Mitt Romney would raise taxes on people like yourself, or wouldn't he do that? **** Party ID *** Would Would not DK/NA q66 If he were elected President, do you think Mitt Romney would raise taxes on big business, or wouldn't he do that? Would Would not DK/NA q67 Do you think Mitt Romney understands the needs and problems of women in the work force, or not? Yes No Don't know/no answer q68 If elected, how closely do you think Mitt Romney would follow the economic policies of George W. Bush--very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely or not at all closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not at all closely DK/NA q69 Since he became the Republican nominee, do you think Mitt Romney has become more moderate in his positions, more conservative, or hasn't he changed his positions? More moderate More conservative Hasn't changed More liberal (Vol.) DK/NA q70 Since becoming president, do you think Barack Obama has become more moderate in his positions, more liberal, or hasn't he changed his positions? More moderate More liberal Hasn't changed More conservative (Vol.) DK/NA

17 q71 Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies? 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will. ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Improving economy Not improved but will Not improving and never will Made economy worse (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q73 How much have you heard or read about the recent attack on the American consulate in Libya and the killing of the U.S. ambassador - a lot, some, or not much? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** A lot Some Not much None at all (Vol.) DK/NA q74 Do you approve or disapprove of how the Obama Administration has handled the recent attacks in Libya? Approve Disapprove DK/NA q75 Which of these comes closest to your view? 1. Abortion should be generally available to those who want it. 2. Abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now. 3. Abortion should not be permitted. Generally available Available but limits Should not be permitted Don't know/no answer q76 What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? 1. Expand the health care law, OR 2. Keep the entire health care law as it is, OR 3. Repeal the part of the law that requires Americans to obtain health insurance if they don't have it, but keep the rest of the law intact, OR 4. Repeal the entire health care law. Expand the law Keep entire law in place Repeal the mandate only Repeal the entire law DK/NA

18 q77 In order to keep Medicare financially sound, do you think it will be necessary or not necessary to make changes to the program? IF YES: Do you think major changes or minor changes will be necessary? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Major changes Minor changes No changes Don't know/no answer q78 Which of these two descriptions comes closer to your view of what Medicare should look like for people who are now under 55 who would be eligible for Medicare coverage in about ten years? 1. Medicare should continue as it is today, with the government providing seniors with health insurance, OR, 2. Medicare should be changed to a system in which the government would provide seniors with a fixed amount of money toward purchasing private health insurance or Medicare insurance. Should continue as is Should be changed DK/NA q79 From what you ve heard or read, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right? Too quickly Not quickly enough About right Don't know/no answer q80 Thinking about Iran, which comes closer to your opinion? 1. Iran is a threat to the United States that requires military action now. 2. Iran is a threat that can be contained with diplomacy now. 3. Iran is not a threat to the United States at this time. Threat requiring action now Threat that can be contained Not a threat at this time DK/NA q83 Compared to past presidential campaigns, do you think the campaign this year has been more positive, more negative, or about the same as past campaigns? More positive More negative About the same DK/NA q86 Have you been contacted on behalf of either Presidential candidate over the past couple of weeks whether it was by a letter, by , by telephone, or in person by a campaign worker? Yes, Romney Yes, Obama Yes, both No contact Don't know/no answer

19 q87 How concerned are you that you will encounter problems that might prevent you from voting or prevent your vote from being counted accurately - very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not at all concerned? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Likely Voters % Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA q88 In general, would you say the presidential and vice presidential debates have been very important, somewhat important, not very important or not important at all in your voting decision for President? Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA q89 Which one of the following is your main source of political news and information -- Television, Internet, newspaper, radio, talking with others or social media like Facebook and Twitter? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Television Internet Newspaper Radio Talking with others Social media like Facebook Don't follow politics Other source (Vol.) DK/NA Unweighted Weighted Total Respondents 898 Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Registered Voters 798 Total Likely Voters 563 Republican likely voters 175 (31%) Democratic likely voters 200 (36%) Independent likely voters 188 (33%) 19