Old Dominion University / Virginian Pilot Poll #3 June 2012

Transcription

1 Selected Poll Cross-tabulations Old Dominion University / Virginian Pilot Poll #3 June 2012 Random Digit Dial sample of landline and cell phone numbers in Virginia. Survey restricted to registered voters and individuals likely to register to vote. Data Collected by the Social Science Research Center at Old Dominion University May 2012 June 15, 2012 Analysis by Jesse Richman Department of Political Science and Geography Old Dominion University jrichman@odu.edu

2 Romney and Obama Holding 2008 Supporters Did you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama (in 2008)? John McCain Barack Obama If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Obama Republican Mitt Romney Would not vote for any of these % 91.1% 50.8% % 6.0% 45.4% % 0.6% 0.6% % 2.3% 3.2% % 100.0% 100.0% This crosstab shows that about 90 percent (91.1 %) of 2008 Obama voters would still vote for Obama, and about 90 percent (89.2 %) of McCain supporters would vote for Mitt Romney. One subtle difference (though not large enough to be outside the margin of error in the poll) is that more than four percent of McCain supporters indicated that they would not vote for either major party candidate, while only two percent of Obama supporters took the same view. This reflects the continuing challenges Romney faces in rallying Republican base voters.

3 If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? * How would you describe your race or ethnicity? Crosstabulation How would you describe your race or ethnicity? White Black or Hispanic or American Asian Multiracial Refused African Latino Indian or American Alaskan Native If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Obama Republican Mitt Romney Would not vote for any of these % 97.2% 36.4% 50.0% 70.0% 61.5% 63.2% 51.9% 50.1% % 1.9% 63.6% 37.5% 10.0% 38.5% 36.8% 37.0% 43.8% % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 1.3% % 0.9% 0.0% 12.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 4.8% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Obama is supported by nearly every African American surveyed (97.2 percent). Whites are split, with 40 percent of those surveyed backing Obama, and 52.7 percent backing Romney.

4 The Enthusiasm Gap Favors Obama If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Obama Republican Mitt Romney How excited are you about voting for your candidate of choice in the 2012 presidential election. Would you say not at all excited, not very excited, somewhat excited, or very excited? Not at all excited Not very excited Somewhat excited Very excited % 7.9% 18.2% 6.9% % 27.4% 0.0% 19.6% % 34.8% 45.5% 36.6% % 29.9% 36.4% 36.9% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% There is a statistically significant difference between the level of enthusiasm expressed by Obama supporters and the level of enthusiasm expressed by Romney supporters. A substantially larger portion of Obama supporters are very excited about voting for Obama. Closing this enthusiasm gap is one of the critical goals for Romney in Virginia. Enthusiasm drives turnout and person-to-person get out the vote efforts.

5 Presidential Election Preference by Income What is your annual household income? I will read a list and you can stop me when I get to the category that includes your h income. Less than Don't $15,000 $15,000 to $30, 000 to $50,000 to $75,000 to $100,000 to $150,000 to $200,000 know $30,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Obama Republican Mitt Romney Would not vote for any of these % 51.8% 49.6% 42.8% 52.4% 50.4% 34.3% 70.8% 69.2% % 39.3% 44.5% 48.3% 43.7% 45.3% 62.9% 18.8% 30.8% % 0.0% 0.8% 2.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% % 8.9% 5.0% 6.2% 1.9% 3.6% 2.9% 6.2% 0.0% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Obama received the strongest level of support among those with the lowest and highest incomes. Those with less than 15,000 per year and more than 200,000 per year. His appeal was considerably weaker in the middle of the income spectrum.

6 The Gender Gap is Alive and Well I need to confirm your gender, you are... Male Female Count Obama % within I need to confirm your gender, you are % 54.5% 50.3% If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Republican Mitt Romney Would not vote for any of these Count % within I need to confirm your gender, you are % 39.1% 43.7% Count % within I need to confirm your gender, you are % 1.2% 1.3% Count % within I need to confirm your gender, you are % 5.1% 4.7% Count % within I need to confirm your gender, you are % 100.0% 100.0% Since 1980 there has been a consistent gender gap in US presidential elections, with men more likely to favor Republican candidates than women. Women continue to express more support for Obama than do men, with a statistically significant gender gap of more than nine percent.

7 Romney and Obama Consolidating Party Support. Statistically tied among Independents Do you generally feel closer to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or do you consider yourself to be an Independent or something else? If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Obama Republican Mitt Romney Would not vote for any of these Republican Democrat Independent Something else (SPECIFY) % 94.4% 46.6% 40.0% 50.1% % 2.8% 43.0% 36.7% 43.7% % 0.4% 2.4% 10.0% 1.3% % 2.4% 8.0% 13.3% 4.8% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Romney and Obama both have high levels of support among their co-partisans (94.4% for Obama, 93.4% for Romney). But independents are very much in play, with Obama s 3.6% lead among independents well within the margin of error for the subsample.

8 Economic Policy Preferences and the 2012 Presidential Election Overall, how do you think United States economic policy should change? Should economic policy be more conservative, stay the same, or be more liberal? More conservative Stay the same More liberal If the presidential election was held today and your choices were Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Obama Republican Mitt Romney Would not vote for any of these % 92.6% 88.1% 49.0% % 5.3% 9.6% 45.3% % 0.0% 0.6% 1.3% % 2.1% 1.7% 4.5% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Economic policy issues will likely be critical in the 2012 election. And on the surface Romney has an advantage on these issues since more than half of the poll respondents would like to see policy move in a more conservative direction. However, Romney has not managed to consolidate support among those who would like to see economic policy move in a more conservative direction. Obama wins near universal support among those who think economic policy should remain the same or become more liberal. But only 68 percent of those who think economic policy should be more conservative favor Mr. Romney.

9 Analysis: Proximity to Candidates on Economic and Social Policy Dimensions: Romney s Ideological Edge We asked respondents to place themselves and the two major party presidential candidates on an economic policy liberal conservative dimension. On this dimension slightly less than a majority of the respondents who successfully placed themselves and the candidates were closer to Mr. Romney (49.5%). By contrast, 39.4 percent were closer to President Obama. We also asked respondents to place themselves and the two major party presidential candidates on a social policy liberal conservative dimension. On this dimension slightly less than a majority of the respondents who successfully placed themselves and the candidates were closer to Mr. Romney (48.9%). By contrast, 42.9 percent were closer to President Obama. Across both dimensions, Romney had an advantage a larger portion identified themselves as closer to Romney than Obama. However, Romney polls behind Obama in the critical electoral question. So far Romney has been unable to translate these advantages into electoral support.

10 Story # Republican Gubernatorial Nomination 2013 Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling or Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli? Do you generally feel closer to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or do you consider yourself to be an Independent or something else? And now, thinking ahead to the 2013 election for Virginia's governor, which of these candidates would you prefer to see win the Republican nomination for governor: Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling or Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli? Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli Neither Republican Democrat Independent Something else (SPECIFY) % 37.8% 36.7% 30.8% 33.9% % 24.9% 44.9% 46.2% 44.5% % 37.3% 18.4% 23.1% 21.5% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Ken Cuccinelli has a substantial and statistically significant lead over Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling among Republicans, with 67 percent of Republicans preferring Cuccinelli and 26.5 percent preferring Bolling. Cuccinelli s high profile and aggressive pursuit of the political spotlight since taking office appears to be paying dividends among the Republican identifiers who will potentially play a significant role in selecting the party s next nominee.

11 Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling or Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli? Social Conservatives pick Cuccinelli Another set of political issues involves social and cultural policies like abortion, contraception, and gay marriage. Where would you say your political views fall on social policy? Are you Very Conservative Somewhat Moderate Somewhat Liberal Very liberal conservative conservative liberal And now, thinking ahead to the 2013 election for Virginia's governor, which of these candidates would you prefer to see win the Republican nomination for governor? Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli Neither % 24.8% 36.7% 36.6% 37.7% 43.1% 40.8% 34.3% % 63.3% 48.3% 36.6% 37.7% 27.8% 25.5% 44.3% % 11.9% 15.0% 26.8% 24.5% 29.2% 33.7% 21.5% % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Cuccinelli is favored over Bolling by all respondents who consider themselves to be at least somewhat socially conservative. Similarly, Cuccinelli is strongly favored by those who would like to see U.S. social policy become more conservative. Note that other crosstabs (not reported) show no significant differences between the views held by men and women of Cuccinelli.