Women Boost Obama, Pan Republicans

Transcription

1 For immediate release Wednesday, Mar.14, pp. Contact: Peter Woolley Krista Jenkins Women Boost Obama, Pan Republicans The president s approval is up in New Jersey, and the wrong direction number is down. According the latest poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind, 51% of New Jersey voters say they approve of the way the president is handling his job, while 42% percent disapprove, a significant improvement from the president s lukewarm 46%-45% approval in January. Men, in fact, are more likely to disapprove of the president (49%) than to approve (43%), but women approve of the president by a margin of 24 points (58%-34%). National Republicans are a turnoff to many women voters recently, said Peter Woolley, director of the poll. Rick Santorum and Rush Limbaugh have combined to alarm, if not completely alienate, pro-choice women. In trial heats, Obama handily beats each of the still-standing Republican candidates for president. Against Mitt Romney he coasts 50%-37%. Against Ron Paul he wins 52%-34%. Against Santorum, Obama s margin widens to 54%-33%, and against Newt Gingrich to 56%-29%. In every case, the president s wide margin is accounted for in women s votes. Women give the president margins from 27 points against Romney (57-30), to 40 points over Gingrich (63-23). Obama s dominance is despite a majority of New Jersey voters saying the nation is headed the wrong way: Just 37% say the country is going in the right direction, while 53% say it s on the wrong track. The 53% is actually an eight point decline from 61% measured in January, but contrasts sharply to 51% who say the state is headed in the right direction as reported yesterday. The story so far in the primary season is that no Republican candidate has been able to take advantage of voters dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, said Woolley. Instead they have spent much of their time and energy trying to take advantage of each other s weaknesses. A majority of voters (53%) say the long, difficult Republican primary contest will weaken the Republican candidate who runs against President Obama in November. Just one in four (27%) say the hard fought primary will strengthen the Republican who wins the nomination. The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 800 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from Mar. 5 through Mar. 11, 2012, and has a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: Radio actualities at For more information, please call more--

2 Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 2 s

3 Methodology, Questions, and Tables The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from Mar. 5, 2012, through Mar. 11, 2012, using a randomly selected sample of 800 registered voters statewide. The margin of error for a sample of 800 randomly selected respondents is +/- 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a land-line phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone-only-households, interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender. In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track? All Dem Ind Rep. men women Right direction 37% Wrong track 53% Unsure/mixed 9% Right/wrong direction trend Jan Oct Sep May Apr Feb Jan Nov Oct Aug My Mar 30 Mar 3 Jan Right 28% Wrong track 61% Unsure/mixed 10% Oct 30 Oct 9 Sep July Apr Mar Jan Oct Right direction Wrong track Unsure/mixed In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? All Men Women Dem Ind Rep. Approve 51% Disapprove 42% Unsure/mixed 7% Obama approval, previous measures Jan Oct Sep May Ap Fe Ja No Oct Aug May Mar Jan Approve Disapprove unsure Oct Se Jun Ap Mar Jan* *January 2009 question asked how Obama was handling his transition to the presidency. Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 3

4 In November, there will be an election for President of the United States. I know it s early, but let me ask In a race for president between and Who would you vote for? All Political Party Gender Presidential Approval Dem Ind Rep Men Wom Approve unsure disapprove Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 37% Don t know 13% Barack Obama 52% Ron Paul 34% Don t now 14% Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 29% Don t know 15% Barack Obama 54% Rick Santorum 33% Don t know 13% Thinking about the long Republican contest so far Some people say the hard fought contest will. Others say the difficult contest will. Which one comes closer to view? strengthen the Republican candidate who runs against President Obama in November. weaken the Republican candidate who runs against President Obama in November. Rotate order All Party ID Dems independents R Strengthen 27% Weaken 53% Don t know 19% more--

5 Exact Question Wording and Order US1. In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or has it gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track DK/Unsure [DON T READ] Ref. [DON T READ] US2. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove DK/Unsure/mixed [DON T READ] Ref. [DON T READ] US3A-D. In November, there will be an election for President of the United States. I know it s early, but let me ask. In a race for president between and. Who would you vote for? ROTATE ORDER WITHIN QUESTION Barack Obama, the Democrat ROTATE MATCHUPS Mitt Romney, the Republican Ron Paul, the Republican Newt Gingrich, the Republican Rick Santorum, the Republican DK [vol. ASK: which way to you lean? ] US4. Thinking about the long Republican contest so far Some people say the hard fought contest Others say the difficult contest ROTATE will strengthen the Republican candidate who runs against President Obama in November. will weaken the Republican candidate who runs against President Obama in November. Which comes closer to your view? Strengthen Weaken DK (vol) Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 5

6 Sample Characteristics (%) Gender Male 49 Female 51 Age Ref. 4 In addition to being American, would you say you are? White 68 Black 13 Hispanic or Latino 9 Asian 4 Other/ref. 6 Public Employee Household? yes 22 No 75 not sure/ref. 3 Party ID Dem. + lean Dem. 49 ind. + unsure + ref. 18 Rep. + lean Rep. 33 # # # Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 6