OHIO: CLINTON HOLDS SMALL EDGE; PORTMAN LEADS FOR SENATE

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1 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ Follow on Released: Monday, 22, tact: PATRICK MURRAY (cell); (office) Follow on OHIO: CLINTON HOLDS SMALL EDGE; PORTMAN LEADS FOR SENATE Kasich s standing not hurt by lack of support for Trump West Long Branch, NJ Hillary Clinton holds a slim 4 point lead over Donald Trump in the perennial battleground state of Ohio. In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent senator Rob Portman has an 8 point lead over former governor Ted Strickland. The candidates for president and senate are experiencing varying degrees of success in appealing to the typical Buckeye worker. The Monmouth University Poll also finds that current governor John Kasich s standing among his constituents is not being hurt by his non-endorsement of Trump. Among Ohio voters likely to cast ballots in vember s presidential election, 4 currently support Clinton and 39% back Trump. Another 1 intend to vote for ertarian Gary Johnson, who will appear as an independent on the ballot, and less than one percent are supporting Jill Stein of the Green Party. Another are undecided. Trump does almost as well as Clinton in getting the backing of fellow partisans, with 8 of ublicans supporting their party s nominee and 8 of ocrats backing their standard bearer. ependents are evenly split at 3 for Trump and 3 for Clinton, with 2 supporting Johnson. Clinton is not doing quite as well as Barack Obama did four years ago among black,, and Asian voters (7 to 1 for Trump compared with 8 for Obama to 1 for Mitt Romney in 2012). Likewise, Trump is not doing quite as well with white voters (4 to 3 for Clinton) as Romney did (5 to 4 for Obama). While Trump is doing nearly as well among white men as the last GOP nominee (leading by 5 to 2 compared to Romney s 6 to 36% advantage), he is trailing among white women (3 to 46% for Clinton compared to Romney s win of 5 to 46% over Obama). Ohio has been nip and tuck for nearly every presidential election since As of right now, it looks like that tradition will continue, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. 1

2 Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/22/16 Ohio s electoral votes would not be in question if favorite son Gov. John Kasich nabbed the GOP nomination. A solid 5 majority say they would have backed Kasich for president over 3 who would support Clinton if this had been the match-up. Unlike other former presidential candidates, Kasich has made a point of keeping his distance from Trump. This has not hurt the governor s reputation among his fellow Buckeyes 3 say they think more highly of Kasich because he is not supporting Trump and just 1 think less highly of him. Another 4 say Kasich s stand against Trump has had no impact on their opinion of the governor. Like Kasich, very few Ohio voters have a positive opinion of either major party nominee. Just 29% have a favorable view of Trump and 5 have an unfavorable view. Clinton s ratings are negligibly better at 3 favorable and 5 unfavorable. Both nominees are trying to appeal to the working class voter that typifies Ohio. Clinton has a small edge when it comes to looking out for the little guy although opinion is not overwhelmingly positive for either candidate. Just over 4-in-10 (4) say Clinton would do a good job at this while 5 say she would do a bad job. Slightly fewer voters (3) say Trump would do a good job looking out for the little guy while 5 say he would do a bad job. Turning to the U.S. Senate race, the Monmouth University Poll finds GOP incumbent Rob Portman with a 4 to 4 lead over former ocratic governor Ted Strickland. Another say they will vote for another candidate and are undecided. Portman garners more support from his fellow ublicans (8) than Strickland does from his fellow ocrats (76%). ependents prefer Portman by 4 to 3. Both candidates are making a pitch for the support of organized labor, with Portman having picked up a number of key union endorsements. A majority of Ohio voters trust Portman to represent the interests of workers in the state either a lot (2) or a little (4), with just 2 saying they do not trust the ublican incumbent to do this. Strickland doesn t do quite as well on this metric 1 trust him a lot and 4 trust him a little, while 3 say they do not trust the ocratic challenger to represent workers interests. Portman earns a net positive job rating from Ohio voters 39% approve and 29% disapprove but nearly one-third (3) have no opinion of the first-term senator s performance. Even fewer voters have an opinion of Portman personally 2 hold a favorable view and 2 have an unfavorable view, with 5 who have formed no real opinion of him. Voters views of Strickland are more negative at 2 favorable and 3 unfavorable, with 4 having no opinion. Neither candidate has a prominent profile despite Portman s nearly six years as the state s senator and Strickland s four years in the Statehouse. However, Portman s low-key approach to his job may be what punches his return ticket to Washington, said Murray. 2

3 Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/22/16 The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from 18 to 21 with 402 Ohio residents likely to vote in the vember election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the ublican, Hillary Clinton the ocrat, Gary Johnson the independent ertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Donald Trump 39% Hillary Clinton 4 Gary Johnson 1 Jill Stein < (VOL) candidate < (VOL) Undecided 3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Rob Portman the ublican, Ted Strickland the ocrat, or some other candidate? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Rob Portman or Ted Strickland?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Rob Portman 4 Ted Strickland 4 candidate (VOL) Undecided Regardless of who you may support for president [QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED] 4. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 29% Unfavorable 5 opinion 1 5. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 5 opinion 16% 3

4 Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/22/16 [QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED] 6. Do you think Donald Trump as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy? Good job 3 Bad job 5 (VOL) Don t know 9% 7. Do you think Hillary Clinton as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy? Good job 4 Bad job 5 (VOL) Don t know 9% 8. Who would you have voted for if the presidential election had been between John Kasich and Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] John Kasich 5 Hillary Clinton 3 (VOL) candidate (VOL) Would not vote (VOL) Undecided 9. Governor Kasich said he cannot support Donald Trump for president. Does this make you think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have no impact on your opinion of him? More highly 3 Less highly 1 impact 4 (VOL) Don t know Turning to the Senate race [QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED] 10. Is your general impression of Rob Portman favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 2 Unfavorable 2 opinion Is your general impression of Ted Strickland favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 2 Unfavorable 3 opinion 4 4

5 Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/22/ Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S. senator? Approve 39% Disapprove 29% (VOL) opinion 3 [QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED] 13. How much do you trust Rob Portman to represent the interests of workers in the state a lot, a little, or not at all? A lot 2 A little 4 t at all 2 (VOL) Don t know How much do you trust Ted Strickland to represent the interests of workers in the state a lot, a little, or not at all? A lot 1 A little 4 t at all 3 (VOL) Don t know 9% METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from 18 to 21, with a random sample of 402 likely Ohio voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 352 drawn from a list of registered voters (202 landline / 150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-orted 29% ublican 3 ependent 3 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female White 1 Black 5

6 Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/22/16 MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) LIKELY VOTER Total % SELF-REPORTED ublican ependent ocrat IDEOLOGY servative erate eral Male Female AGE % ### 6

7 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 8/22/16 Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson Stein [VOL] cand Undecided 39% % % Male Female % % 3 16% Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH UNDEC LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson Stein [VOL] cand Undecided % % % 6% % Q3. SEN VOTE WITH ALL LEANERS Portman Strickland Undecided % 6% % 6% 1 Male Female % % Q3. SEN VOTE WITH ALL LEANERS Portman Strickland Undecided % % 2 69% % % Page 1

8 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 8/22/16 Male Female Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 29% % 2 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable % opinion of him? opinion % % Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable % Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 56% opinion of him? opinion % 1 9% 1 Male Female Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable % 39% 66% Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of her? opinion 16% 19% 16% 2 16% Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable 4 29% 59% Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 46% 56% opinion of her? opinion Q6. Do you think Donald Trump Good job as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job 5 16% 5 86% % little guy? [VOL] Dont know_refused 9% 9% 1 6% 1 9% 9% Q6. Do you think Donald Trump Good job % 4 3 as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job % 5 59% little guy? [VOL] Dont know_refused 1 9% Male Female Page 2

9 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 8/22/16 Q7. Do you think Hillary Clinton Good job 4 6% % 46% 76% 3 4 as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job % 59% 4 little guy? [VOL] Dont know_refused 9% 1 1 6% 1 Q7. Do you think Hillary Clinton Good job 36% 46% 3 66% as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the Bad job % 5 little guy? [VOL] Dont know_refused 9% 9% 1 6% 1 1 Male Female Q8. Who would you have voted for if the presidential election had been between John Kasich and Hillary Clinton? John Kasich Hillary Clinton [VOL] candidate [VOL] Would not vote for president [VOL] Undecided _ t sure % 59% 29% 2 6 6% Male Female % 6% Q8. Who would you have voted for if the presidential election had been between John Kasich and Hillary Clinton? John Kasich Hillary Clinton [VOL] candidate [VOL] Would not vote for president [VOL] Undecided _ t sure % % 56% 3 Q8. Who would you have voted for if the presidential election had been between John Kasich and Hillary Clinton? John Kasich Hillary Clinton [VOL] candidate [VOL] Would not vote for president [VOL] Undecided _ t sure 6 26% 5 3 Page 3

10 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 8/22/16 Q9. Governor Kasich said he More highly % 66% cannot support Donald Trump for president. Does this make you Less highly 1 36% 1 36% think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have impact % 4 no impact on your opinion of him? [VOL] Dont Know_Refused Male Female Q9. Governor Kasich said he More highly 39% % 4 cannot support Donald Trump for president. Does this make you Less highly % 1 1 think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have impact % no impact on your opinion of him? [VOL] Dont Know_Refused Male Female Q10. Is your general impression Favorable % of Rob Portman favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable % % 1 opinion of him? opinion % Q10. Is your general impression Favorable 3 3 9% % 3 of Rob Portman favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 29% 2 16% 2 19% 2 19% 2 opinion of him? opinion % 56% 5 4 Male Female Q11. Is your general impression Favorable % % 26% 19% of Ted Strickland favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable % opinion of him? opinion % 49% Page 4

11 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 8/22/ Q11. Is your general impression Favorable 26% % % of Ted Strickland favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable % 3 36% opinion of him? opinion % % 4 Q12. Do you approve or Approve 39% 59% 36% disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S. Disapprove 29% % senator? [VOL] Neither_ opinion_dont Know_Refused % % 3 Q12. Do you approve or Approve 4 39% % 4 3 disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S. Disapprove % % 3 senator? [VOL] Neither_ opinion_dont Know_Refused 3 26% Q12. Do you approve or Approve 4 4 disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S. Disapprove 29% 26% senator? [VOL] Neither_ opinion_dont Know_Refused 2 3 Male Female Q13. How much do you trust Rob Portman to represent the interests of workers in the state - a lot, a little, or not at all? A lot A little t at all [VOL] Dont know_refused % 1 16% 49% % % Male Female % Page 5

12 Monmouth University Poll -- OHIO -- 8/22/16 Q13. How much do you trust Rob Portman to represent the interests of workers in the state - a lot, a little, or not at all? A lot A little t at all [VOL] Dont know_refused % % 1 29% 2 39% 1 9% 1 16% 19% % 4 2 9% Q14. How much do you trust Ted Strickland to represent the interests of workers in the state - a lot, a little, or not at all? A lot A little t at all [VOL] Dont know_refused % % % 5 29% 9% 6% 1 Male Female % 1 Q14. How much do you trust Ted Strickland to represent the interests of workers in the state - a lot, a little, or not at all? A lot A little t at all [VOL] Dont know_refused % 3 2 9% 9% 1 19% % 19% % Page 6