HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1
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1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 Interviews: 800 Adults, including 240 cell phone only respondents Date: October 7-9, 2013 Study # Male 52 Female Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. The margin of error for 800 interviews among Adults is ±3.46% Unless otherwise noted by a +, all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults. Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF REFUSED, ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST.) and over... 6 Not sure/refused... 1 Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? Yes, Hispanic No, not Hispanic Not sure/refused... 1 Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else? White Black Asian... 3 Other... 3 Hispanic (VOL)... 6 Not sure/refused... 2
2 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 2 Q3 All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track? High Low 9/13 9/13 7/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 1/13 12/12 9/01 10/17-20/08+ Headed in the right direction Off on the wrong track Mixed (VOL) Not sure /12+ 9/26-30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 3/12 1/ /11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/11 2/11 1/ /10 11/10 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/6-11/10 3/ /23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/09 1/ The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
3 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 3 Q4 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? High Low 9/13 9/13 8/13 7/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 1/13 12/12 4/09 11/11 Approve Disapprove Not sure /12+ 9/26-30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 3/ /12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/11 2/ /11 12/10 11/10 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/20-23/10 5/6-11/ /10 1/23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 8/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/
4 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 4 Q5 Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and groups. I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE EXCEPT BARACK OBAMA) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral Barack Obama 1 October 7-9, September July May 30-June 2, April February January December October September 26-30, September 12-16, August July June May April March January December November October August June May April February January December November October 28-30, October 14-18, September August 26-30, August 5-9, June May 20-23, May 6-11, March January 23-25, December October September July June April February January Barack Obama High February Presidential Term Low August All-time Obama Low October 28-30, The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
5 Q5 (cont'd) HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 5 Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral The Republican Party 1 October 7-9, September May 30-June 2, February January December October September 26-30, August July June May April March January December November October August June May April January December November October 28-30, October 14-18, September August 26-30, August 5-9, June May 20-23, May 6-11, March January 23-25, January 10-14, December October September July June April February High December Low October 7-9,
6 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 6 Q5 (cont'd) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral The Democratic Party 1 October 7-9, September May 30-June 2, February January December October September 26-30, August July June May April March January December November October August June May April January December November October 28-30, October 14-18, September August 26-30, August 5-9, June May 20-23, May 6-11, March January 23-25, January 10-14, December October September July June April February December High January Low July The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
7 Q5 (cont'd) HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 7 Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral The Tea Party Movement October 7-9, September May 30-June 2, January July April January December November October August June April January December November October 28-30, October 14-18, September August 26-30, August 5-9, June May 6-11, March January 23-25, High June Low October 7-9, John Boehner October 7-9, January December January February January November 11-15, October 14-18, September October January Harry Reid October 7-9, January January November 11-15, September August 5-9, January 10-14, October January January September February Ted Cruz October 7-9, May 30-June 2, Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
8 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 8 SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES BY D/S (POSITIVE NEGATIVE) TOTAL TOTAL POSITIVE NEGATIVE D/S Barack Obama The Democratic Party Ted Cruz Harry Reid John Boehner The Tea Party Movement The Republican Party (ROTATE Q6 AND Q7) Q6 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Republicans in Congress are doing? 9/13 12/11 7/11 Approve Disapprove Not sure Q7 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Democrats in Congress are doing? 9/13 12/11 7/11 Approve Disapprove Not sure
9 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 9 And, although it s a long way off Q8 What is your preference for the outcome of NEXT year's congressional elections -- (ROTATE:) a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats? 9/13+ 9/13+ 7/13+ 6/13+ 10/12+ 9/26-30/12+ 8/12+ Republican-controlled Congress Democrat-controlled Congress Not sure /12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ 3/12+ 1/12+ 12/ /11+ 10/11+ 8/11+ 6/11+ 10/10+ 9/10+ 8/26-30/10+ 8/5-9/10+ 6/10+ 5/20-23/ /6-11/10+ 3/10+ 1/23-25/10+ 1/10-14/10+ 12/09+ 10/09+ 9/09+ 7/09+ 4/09+ 11/ /08+ 9/08+ 8/08+ 7/08+ 6/08+ 4/08+ 3/08+ 11/07+ 9/07+ 10/ /06+ 7/06+ 6/06+ 4/06+ 3/06+ 1/06+ 12/05+ 11/05+ 10/05+ 7/ /05+ 10/04+ 9/04+ 6/04+ 5/04+ 3/04+ 1/04 12/13/03 10/02+ 9/ /02 6/02 1/02 12/01 12/99 10/99 7/99 6/99 4/99 3/ /98+ 9/98 7/98 6/98 2/98 1/98 12/97 9/97 7/97 4/
10 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 10 Q9 If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including your own representative, would you do this, or not? 9/13+** 7/13+ 1/12+ 8/11+ 10/28-30/10+ 8/26-30/10+ 6/10+ 3/10+ Yes No Not sure Results shown reflect responses among registered voters ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). Now, thinking about something else Q10 I'm going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I'd like to know which one comes closer to your point of view. (ROTATE STATEMENTS.) Statement A: Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people, OR Statement B: Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. 9/13 6/13 6/12 6/11 A/Government should do more B/Government is doing too many things Some of both (VOL) Not sure /11 10/10+ 8/26-30/10 6/ /10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 4/09 2/09 10/4-5/ /19-22/08+ 7/08+ 9/07 3/07 1/02 12/97 12/ NA NA In December 1995, the question was phrased, Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our country's problems. Which comes closer to your own view?
11 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 11 Now, turning to the economy... Q11 During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 9/13 9/13 7/13 6/13 12/12 10/12+ 9/26-30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ Economy will get better Economy will get worse Economy will stay about the same Not sure /12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 3/12 1/12 12/11 11/11 10/ /11 7/11 6/11 4/11 2/11 1/11 12/10 11/10 10/14-18/ /10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/6-10/10 3/10 1/10-14/10 10/09 9/ /09 6/09 4/09 10/08+ 10/06+ 10/04+ 10/02+ 10/98+ 10/ Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, Over the next year Q12 Thinking about President Obama and Republicans in Congress and their negotiations about the budget, does it make you feel -- (ROTATE) more confident or less confident about the economy getting better or does it not make a difference in your opinion one way or the other? 9/13 2/13 1/13 More confident Less confident No difference Not sure
12 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 12 Now, thinking about the recent debate over the federal budget Q13 As you know, President Obama and the Republicans in Congress have not reached a budget agreement, and this has led to a shutdown of the federal government. Who do you think is more to blame for this shutdown -- President Obama or the Republicans in Congress? President Obama Republicans in Congress Both equal (VOL) Not sure If President Clinton and the Republican Congress do not reach an agreement to balance the budget, who do you think will be more to blame--president Clinton or the Republican Congress? 1/96 11/ /95 2 President Clinton Republican Congress Both equal (VOL) Not sure In November 1995, the question read, "As you know, President Clinton and the Republican Congress have not reached a budget agreement, and this has led to a shutdown of the federal government. Who do you think is more to blame for this shutdown...". 2 In October 1995, the question read, "If President Clinton and the Republican Congress do not reach a budget agreement in time to avoid a major shutdown of the federal government..." Q14 In your view, how serious a problem is this shutdown of the federal government -- extremely serious, quite serious, just somewhat serious, or not that serious? 9/13 11/95 Extremely serious Quite serious Just somewhat serious Not that serious Not sure Q15 Have you or anyone in your family been affected by the federal government shutdown, in terms of employment, services, or benefits? 9/13 1/96 11/95 Yes, have been affected No, have not been affected Not sure
13 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 13 (ROTATE Q16a AND Q16b) Q16a Which of these is closer to your own view of President Obama s actions and positions during the current budget disagreement? A) He is being a strong leader and standing up for what he believes in B) He is putting his own political agenda ahead of what's good for the country Both equal (VOL)... 1 Not sure... 2 November 1995 Which of these is closer to your own view of President Clinton s actions and positions during the current budget disagreement? A) He is being a strong leader and standing up for what he believes in B) He is putting his own political agenda ahead of what's good for the country Both equal (VOL)... 4 Not sure... 4 Q16b Which of these is closer to your own view of Congressional Republicans actions and positions during the current budget disagreement? A) They are demonstrating strong leadership and standing up for what they believe in B) They are putting their own political agenda ahead of what is good for the country Both equal (VOL)... 1 Not sure... 2 Q17 How much harm, if any, is the government shutdown having on the U.S. economy a great deal, quite a bit, just some, very little, or none at all? Great deal Quite a bit Just some Very little None at all... 2 Not sure... 2 (ASKED OF FORM A ON 8 ONLY) Q18a In your own words, what word or short phrase best describes how you think President Obama has handled the budget negotiations? SEE VERBATIM RESPONSE (ASKED OF FORM B ON 8 ONLY) Q18b In your own words, what word or short phrase best describes how you think Republicans in Congress have handled the budget negotiations? SEE VERBATIM RESPONSE
14 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 14 Now, talking a moment about something called the federal debt ceiling Q19 The federal debt ceiling limits the amount of money the government can borrow. When the U.S. Treasury needs to issue debt above the ceiling in order to avoid going into bankruptcy and to pay the government s bills, Congress needs to vote to raise the ceiling. Which of the following causes you more concern? That Congress will not raise the debt ceiling and the federal government will not pay its bills, such as defaulting on its loans and not making payments to Social Security recipients and government workers That Congress will raise the debt ceiling and that federal spending will increase and the government will go further into debt as a result Or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time Not sure... 3 CNBC Trend The federal debt ceiling limits the amount of money the government can borrow. When the U.S. Treasury needs to issue debt above the ceiling in order to avoid going into bankruptcy and defaulting on its obligations, Congress needs to vote to raise the ceiling. Which of the following causes you more concern? 9/13 6/13 6/11 That Congress will not raise the debt ceiling and the federal government will not meet its financial obligations, such as defaulting on its loans and not making payments to Social Security recipients and government workers That Congress will raise the debt ceiling and that federal spending will increase and the government will go further into debt as a result Or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time Not sure Q20 The president has asked Congress to raise the debt ceiling, and the Congress is currently considering whether to raise it. If Congress does not vote to raise the debt ceiling, do you believe that this would be a real and serious problem or not? If you do not know enough to have an opinion, please say so. 9/13* 7/11 1 A real and serious problem Not a real and serious problem Don t know enough to have opinion Not sure * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). 1 In July 2011, the question read Right now Congress and the president are negotiating about whether and how much to raise the debt ceiling
15 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 15 Now as you may know, Barack Obama s health care plan was passed by Congress and signed into law in 2010 Q21 From what you have heard about the new health care law, do you think it is (ROTATE) a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so. (IF GOOD IDEA/BAD IDEA, ASK:) And, do you feel that way strongly, or not so strongly? 9/13 9/13 7/13 6/13 7/12+ 6/12 4/12 12/11 1/11 10/14-18/10+ 6/10+ 5/6-10/10 1 Total Good idea Strongly Not so strongly Total Bad idea Not so strongly Strongly Do not have an opinion Not sure /10 1/23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 8/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 Good idea Bad idea Do not have an opinion Not sure Prior to May 2010, the question did not ask And, do you feel that way strongly, or not so strongly? Now, moving on Q22 President Obama says he will not negotiate with Republicans in Congress about the health care law and the federal budget until Congress has reopened the government and raised the country s debt ceiling limit. Do you agree or disagree with the president on this? If you do not know enough about this to have an opinion, please just say so and we will move on. (IF AGREE/DISAGREE, ASK:) And, do you strongly or just somewhat (agree/disagree) with the president on this? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree... 7 Strongly disagree Don t know enough to say Not sure... 1
16 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 16 And, switching topics slightly Q23a/b Thinking again about the new health care law, would you favor or oppose totally eliminating federal funding for the new health care law? (IF FAVOR, ASK:) Would you favor totally eliminating federal funding for the health care law, even if this meant continuing a partial shutdown of the federal government? Favor 39 Even if it means continuing the government shutdown Not if it means continuing the government shutdown Not sure... 3 Oppose Not sure CNBC September 2013 Thinking again about the new health care law, would you favor or oppose totally eliminating federal funding for the new health care law? (IF FAVOR, ASK:) Would you favor totally eliminating federal funding for the health care law, even if this meant shutting down the federal government and having the government default on its debts? Favor 38 Even if it means government shut-down and default Not if it means government shut-down and default Not sure... 4 Oppose Not sure Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. QF1a Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (state from Q1x)]? Registered Not registered Not sure... - QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in last November's election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else?+ Yes, Voted Voted for Barack Obama Voted for Mitt Romney Voted for someone else... 6 Not sure... 5 No, Did Not Vote Not sure... - QF2 What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.) Grade school... - Some high school... 5 High school graduate Some college, no degree Vocational training/school year college degree year college/bachelor's degree Some postgraduate work, no degree years postgraduate work/master's degree Doctoral/law degree... 5 Not sure/refused... -
17 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 17 QF3 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.") Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Independent/lean Democrat Strictly Independent Independent/lean Republican Not very strong Republican... 7 Strong Republican Other (VOL)... 4 Not sure... 2 QF4 Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party Movement? 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ 3/12+ 1/12+ 12/11+ 11/11+ 10/11+ 8/ /13+ 9/13+ 7/13+ 6/13+ 2/13+ 1/13+ 10/12+ 9/26-30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ Yes No Depends (VOL) Not sure /11+ 5/11+ 4/11+ 2/11+ 1/11+ 12/10+ 11/10+ 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/ QF5 Do you or an immediate family member living with you work for the federal government or a state or local government? (IF YES, SPECIFY, ACCEPT ALL THAT APPLY) Total Yes 20 Yes, federal... 9 Yes, state... 8 Yes, local... 5 No Not sure... 1
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