HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1
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- Phillip Howard
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1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 Interviews: 800 Registered Voters, including 280 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: January 9-13, respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline. Study # Male 52 Female Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. The margin of error for 800 interviews among Registered Voters is ±3.46% The margin of error for 400 interviews among Republican Primary Voters is ±4.90% The margin of error for 400 interviews among Democratic Primary Voters is ±4.90% Unless otherwise noted by a +, ^, or ^^ all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults. Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF REFUSED, ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST) and over... 6 Not sure/refused Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? + Yes, Hispanic No, not Hispanic Not sure/refused Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else? + White Black Asian... 2 Other... 3 Hispanic (VOL)... 6 Not sure/refused Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
2 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 2 Q3 Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (STATE)]? + Registered Not registered... - Not sure Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. Q4 All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 1 High Low 1/16+ 12/15 10/25-29/15 10/15-18/15 9/15 7/15 6/15 4/15 3/15 9/01 10/17-20/08+ Headed in the right direction Off on the wrong track Mixed (VOL) Not sure /15 12/14 11/14 10/30-11/1/14+ 10/8-12/14+ 9/14+ 8/14 6/14 4/14 3/ /14 12/13 10/25-28/13 10/7-9/13 9/13 7/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 1/ /12 10/12+ 9/26-30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 3/ /12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/11 1/ /10 11/10 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/6-11/10 3/ /23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/09 1/ The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
3 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 3 Q5 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? High Low 1/16+ 12/15 10/25-29/15 10/15-18/15 9/15 7/15 6/15 4/15 3/15 4/09 9/14+ Approve Disapprove Not sure /15 12/14 11/14 10/30-11/1/14+ 10/8-12/14+ 9/14+ 8/14 6/14 4/14 3/ /14 12/13 10/25-28/13 10/7-9/13 9/13 8/13 7/13 6/13 4/13 2/ /13 12/12 10/12+ 9/26-30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/ /12 1/12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/11 2/ /11 12/10 11/10 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/20-23/10 5/6-11/ l혈 /10 1/23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 8/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/
4 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 4 Q6 Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE EXCEPT BARACK OBAMA) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral Barack Obama December October 25-29, October 15-18, September July June April March January December November Oct. 30 Nov. 1, October 8-12, September August June April March January December October 7-9, May 30-June 2, April January December October September 26-30, August July June January August April January December November October 28-30, June May 20-23, March January 23-25, December October February January High February Presidential Term Low August All-time Obama Low October 28-30, The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
5 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 5 Q6 (cont'd) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral Hillary Clinton December October 25-29, October 15-18, September July June April March January November September June April March September May 30-June 2, April January December November May April December January 10-14, July February January December September August June April March 24-25, March 7-10, January June March December April December July March January High February Low March The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
6 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 6 Q6 (cont'd) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral Bernie Sanders December October 25-29, October 15-18, September July June Jeb Bush December October 25-29, October 15-18, September July June April March January November September April May 30-June 2, Donald Trump December October 25-29, October 15-18, September July February May December October July Ben Carson December October 25-29, October 15-18, September November Marco Rubio December October 25-29, October 15-18, July June April November September July April February
7 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 7 Q6 (cont'd) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Neutral Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Ted Cruz December October 25-29, October 15-18, July April November October 25-28, October 7-9, May 30-June 2, Chris Christie July November January October 25-28, May 30-June 2, February August June Bill Clinton March September 2014+* March September December September August August September January December August June April March 24-25, March 7-10, January November March April June January June January High January Low March The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
8 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 8 Q6 (cont'd) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral George W. Bush March September July April June August May October 28-30, August 26-30, June January April January December October 17-20, October 4-5, September 19-22, September 6-8, August July March 24-25, March 7-10, January June January June January July January June January July January June January June January High December Low April The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked. SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES BY D/S (POSITIVE NEGATIVE) TOTAL TOTAL POSITIVE NEGATIVE D/S Bill Clinton Bernie Sanders Barack Obama Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Ben Carson George W. Bush Hillary Clinton Chris Christie Jeb Bush Donald Trump
9 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 9 Q7 Thinking about the direction of the country five years from now, do you think things in the United States will get better, get worse, or be about the same as they are now? 1/16+ 1/12 1/11 8/26-30/10 Get better Get worse Same as they are now Not sure Moving on Q8 Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2016 presidential election that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) And do you strongly prefer a (Democrat/Republican), or is your preference not that strong? 2008 Election Trend 1/16+ 12/15+ 10/25-29/15+ 8/08+ 7/08+ 6/08+ 4/08+ 3/7-10/08+ 11/07+ 9/07+ 6/07 4/07 Democrat Strongly Not strongly Republican Not strongly Strongly Other (VOL) Not sure Q9 Thinking about the 2016 presidential election, which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view? Statement A: This is a time when it is important to look for a more experienced and tested person even if he or she brings fewer changes to the current policies. Statement B: This is a time when it is important to look for a person who will bring greater changes to the current policies even if he or she is less experienced and tested. 1/16+ 3/15+ 7/08+ 6/08 Statement A: Time for a more experienced and tested person Statement B: Time for a person who will bring greater changes Depends (VOL) Not sure
10 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 10 Q10 Compared with the past several presidents, do you feel that Barack Obama will turn out to have been one of the very best, better than most, not as good as most, or definitely worse than most of them?+ One of the very best Better than most Not as good as most Definitely worse than most Not sure... 1 George W. Bush Bill Clinton 1/08 1/99 One of the very best Better than most Not as good as most Definitely worse than most Not sure Moving on (Q11 & Q12 ROTATED) Q11 How closely are you following the Democratic presidential primary race very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? 1/16+ 1/08 Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not closely at all Not sure Q12 How closely are you following the Republican presidential primary race very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? 1/16+ 1/08 Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not closely at all Not sure Q13 Now, if there were a presidential primary election in your state, would you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or would you wait to vote in the general election in November 2016? 1/16+ 12/15+ 10/25-29/15+ 10/15-18/15+ 9/15+ 7/15+ 6/15+ 4/15+ 3/15+ Vote in Democratic Primary Vote in Republican Primary Wait until the general election Do not plan to vote at all (VOL) Not sure
11 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 11 Q14 Next, I m going to mention a number of people who are seeking the Democratic nomination for president in For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination president in If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE LIST) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES Yes, Could See Self Supporting No, Could Not See Self Supporting Don t Know Name Hillary Clinton ^^ December 2015^^ October 25-29, 2015^^ October 15-18, 2015^^ September 2015^^ June 2015^^ March 2015^^ Bernie Sanders ^^ December 2015^^ October 25-29, 2015^^ October 15-18, 2015^^ September 2015^^ June 2015^^ March 2015^^ Martin O Malley ^^ December 2015^^ October 25-29, 2015^^ October 15-18, 2015^^ September 2015^^ June 2015^^ March 2015^^ ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Not Sure Q15 And, if the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE 1/16^^ 12/15^^ 10/25-29/15^^ 10/15-18/15^^ 9/15^^ 7/15^^ 6/15^^ Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Martin O Malley Jim Webb... NA NA NA Lincoln Chafee... NA NA NA Other (VOL) None (VOL) Not sure ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
12 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 12 (Q16 AND Q17 ROTATED) Q16 Would you describe Hillary Clinton as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Hillary Clinton is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^^ ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Q17 Would you describe Bernie Sanders as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Bernie Sanders is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^^ 1/16^^ 10/15-18/15^^ 6/15^^ Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure /15-1/16^^ 18/15^^ Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure Don t know name (Q6) ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
13 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 13 And, thinking about some other people (Q18 AND Q19 ROTATED) Q18 Would you describe Barack Obama as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Barack Obama is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^^ Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative... 5 Very conservative... 4 Not sure... 2 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Q19 Would you describe Bill Clinton as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Bill Clinton is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^^ Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative... 6 Very conservative... 4 Not sure... 5 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary (Q20 AND Q21 ROTATED) Q20 Thinking about the goals and policies of the next President, would you prefer a president that is (ROTATE) more liberal or less liberal, or about the same as Barack Obama? (IF "MORE" OR "LESS," ASK:) And, would you prefer a president that is much or somewhat (more/less) liberal than Barack Obama? ^^ Much more liberal Somewhat more liberal Somewhat less liberal... 6 Much less liberal... 4 About the same Not sure... 1 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Q21 Thinking about the goals and policies of the next President, would you prefer a president that is (ROTATE) more liberal or less liberal, or about the same as Bill Clinton? (IF "MORE" OR "LESS," ASK:) And, would you prefer a president that is much or somewhat (more/less) liberal than Bill Clinton? ^^ Much more liberal Somewhat more liberal Somewhat less liberal... 4 Much less liberal... 3 About the same Not sure... 2 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
14 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 14 Q22 Next, I m going to mention a number of people who are seeking the Republican nomination for president in For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Republican nomination president in If you don't know the name, please just say so. (AFTER THE FIRST TEN ITEMS, READ:) And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE LIST) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES Yes, Could See Self Supporting No, Could Not See Self Supporting Don t Know Name Ted Cruz ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ Marco Rubio ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ Donald Trump ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ March 2015^ Ben Carson ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ Chris Christie ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary Not Sure
15 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 15 THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES Yes, Could See Self Supporting No, Could Not See Self Supporting Don t Know Name Carly Fiorina ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ Jeb Bush ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ Mike Huckabee ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ Rand Paul ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ April 2015^ March 2015^ John Kasich ^ December 2015^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ Rick Santorum ^ October 25-29, 2015^ October 15-18, 2015^ September 2015^ July 2015^ June 2015^ March 2015^ ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary Not Sure
16 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 16 Q23 And, if the Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor (RANDOMIZE :1-10)? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) (IF CHOICE, THEN ASK:) And, which of the following candidates would be your second choice (RANDOMIZE REMAINING LIST FROM :1-10)? FIRST CHOICE THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE 1/16^ 12/15^ 10/25-29/15^ 10/15-18/15^ 9/15^ 7/15^ 6/15^ 4/15^ Donald Trump NA Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Chris Christie Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina John Kasich NA Rand Paul Mike Huckabee Rick Santorum... NA NA NA Jim Gilmore... NA NA NA NA Bobby Jindal... NA NA NA Lindsey Graham... NA NA NA George Pataki... NA NA NA Scott Walker... NA NA NA NA NA Rick Perry... NA NA NA NA NA Other (VOL) None (VOL) Not sure ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary COMBINED CHOICE THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE 1/16^ 12/15^ 10/25-29/15^ 10/15-18/15^ 9/15^ 7/15^ 6/15^ 4/15^ Donald Trump NA Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Chris Christie John Kasich NA Carly Fiorina Rand Paul Mike Huckabee Jim Gilmore... NA NA NA NA Rick Santorum... NA NA NA Bobby Jindal... NA NA NA Lindsey Graham... NA NA NA George Pataki... NA NA NA Scott Walker... NA NA NA NA NA Rick Perry... NA NA NA NA NA Other (VOL) None (VOL) Not sure ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary
17 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 17 Q24a Now if you had to choose between ONLY the following candidates running for the Republican primary for president, which one would you favor (RANDOMIZE :1-5)? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE 1/16^ 12/15^ Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush None (VOL) Not sure ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary (ASK IF "JEB BUSH" OR "BEN CARSON" ON Q24a) Q24b And, if that candidate were not on the ballot which of the following candidates would be your second choice (RANDOMIZE :1-3)? ^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE AMONG ALL GOP PRIMARY VOTERS Marco Rubio... 8 Ted Cruz... 6 Donald Trump... 5 None (VOL)... - Not sure... - Another Candidate Chosen (Q24a) ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE AMONG GOP PRIMARY VOTERS WITH BUSH AND CARSON VOTERS REASSIGNED ACCORDING TO THEIR SECOND CHOICE Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio None (VOL)... 2 Not sure... 1 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary
18 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 18 (Q25 AND Q26 ROTATED) Q25 Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the Republican primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^ Donald Trump Ted Cruz Neither (VOL)... 5 Not sure... 1 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary Q26 Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in the Republican primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^ Donald Trump Marco Rubio Neither (VOL)... 2 Not sure... 1 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary Moving on Q27 When it comes to the current field of Republican primary candidates for president would you say it is a strong field, meaning it is better than in other elections with many good candidates to choose from, an average field meaning it is equal to other elections with at least two to three good candidates to choose from, or a weak field meaning it is less good than in other elections with hardly any good candidates to choose from? 1/16^ 1/12^ 12/11^ Strong/many good candidates Average/some good candidates Weak/hardly any good candidates Not sure ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary (Q28, Q29, & Q30 RANDOMIZED) Q28 Would you describe Donald Trump as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Donald Trump is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^ Very liberal... 8 Somewhat liberal... 7 Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure... 6 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary
19 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 19 Q29 Would you describe Jeb Bush as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Jeb Bush is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^ Very liberal... 2 Somewhat liberal... 9 Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure... 4 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary Q30 Would you describe Ted Cruz as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Ted Cruz is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^ Very liberal... 1 Somewhat liberal... 2 Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure... 5 Don t know name (Q6)... 5 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary And, thinking about another person Q31 Would you describe George W. Bush as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say George W. Bush is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? ^ Very liberal... 1 Somewhat liberal... 2 Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure... 2 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary Q32 Thinking about the goals and policies of the next President, would you prefer a president that is (ROTATE) more conservative or less conservative, or about the same as George W. Bush? (IF "MORE" OR "LESS," ASK:) And, would you prefer a president that is much or somewhat (more/less) conservative than George W. Bush? ^ Much more conservative Somewhat more conservative Somewhat less conservative Much less conservative... 3 About the same Not sure... 1 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary
20 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 20 Thinking again about the 2016 presidential election (Q33-Q36 RANDOMIZED) Q33 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Donald Trump were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? 1/16+ 12/15+ 10/25-29/15+ 9/15+ Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure Q34 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Marco Rubio were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? 1/16+ 12/15+ 10/25-29/15+ 10/15-18/15+ 6/15+ 4/15+ Marco Rubio Hillary Clinton Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure Q35 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Ted Cruz were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? 1/16+ 12/15+ 10/15-18/15+ Ted Cruz Hillary Clinton Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure Q36 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Donald Trump were the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? 10/25-1/16+ 29/15+ 9/15+ Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure
21 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 21 Moving on (Q37 AND Q38 ROTATED) Q37 Now, has what you have seen, read, or heard so far during the Republican presidential nominating process made you feel more favorable or less favorable toward the Republican Party or has it had no impact one way or the other on your feelings toward the Republican Party? REGISTERED VOTERS+ 1/16 1/12 More favorable Less favorable No impact Not Sure Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. GOP PRIMARY VOTERS^ 1/16 1/12 More favorable Less favorable No impact Not Sure ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary Q38 Now, has what you have seen, read, or heard so far during the Democratic presidential nominating process made you feel more favorable or less favorable toward the Democratic Party or has it had no impact one way or the other on your feelings toward the Democratic Party? DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS+ PRIMARY VOTERS^^ More favorable Less favorable No impact Not Sure ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
22 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 22 Thinking now about the economy... Q39a Now thinking about 2015, were there important and real indications the economy improved a lot, somewhat, only a little, not at all? 1/16+* 1/15 1/13 1/12 1/11 A lot Somewhat Only a little Not at all Not sure * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). Q39b In looking at 2016, do you think that it will be a time of economic expansion for you and your family and an opportunity to move ahead, or do you think that it will be a time to hold back and save because harder times are ahead? 1/16+** 1/13 1/08 12/05 1/05 3/01 1/01 12/98 Time of expansion/opportunity Time to hold back/harder times ahead Some of both (VOL) Not sure ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). And, thinking about something else Q40 In dealing with ISIS, which concerns you more: (ROTATE) a policy that is too aggressive and risks a major American military force on the ground in the Middle East, or a policy that is not aggressive enough and risks allowing ISIS to expand its power and the territory it controls in the Middle East or do you not know enough to have an opinion on this at this time?+ Too Aggressive/U.S. ground force Not Aggressive Enough/ISIS expands Do not know enough to have an opinion Not sure... 3
23 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 23 Now, thinking some more about you And, on a scale from one to ten where ten represents a description that is perfect for you and one a description that is totally wrong for you, how well do each of the following describe you? You can, of course, use any number between one and ten. (RECORD EXACT NUMBER 1-10, USE 99 FOR DK/REF) To what extent do you regard yourself as...(randomize) DATA SHOWN AMONG REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY % Refused A supporter of the traditional definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman A National Rifle Association supporter A supporter of the Right-to-Life movement Someone who enjoys listening to conservative talk radio A supporter of the Tea Party Movement A Libertarian ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary DATA SHOWN AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS^^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY % Refused A supporter of taking immediate action to address climate change An environmentalist A supporter of the gay rights movement A union supporter A supporter of the Black Lives Matter movement A supporter of the Right-to-Life movement A supporter of the traditional definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman A National Rifle Association supporter Someone who enjoys listening to conservative talk radio A supporter of the Tea Party Movement ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
24 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 24 Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November 2012 election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? + Voted for Barack Obama Voted for Mitt Romney Voted for someone else... 9 Not sure... 2 No, Did Not Vote Not sure... 1 QF1d And did you happen to vote in the 2014 election for U.S. Congress? + Yes, voted No, did not vote Not sure... 4 QF2 Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do? (RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-athome mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? + Currently Employed Professional, manager White-collar worker Blue-collar worker Farmer, rancher... - Not Currently Employed Student... 2 Stay at home mom/dad... 5 Retired Unemployed, looking for work... 3 Other... - Not sure Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. QF3 What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.) + Grade school... - Some high school... 2 High school graduate Some college, no degree Vocational training/school year college degree year college/bachelor's degree Some postgraduate work, no degree years postgraduate work/master's degree Doctoral/law degree... 5 Not sure/refused... 1
25 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 25 QF4 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.") + Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Independent/lean Democrat Strictly Independent Independent/lean Republican Not very strong Republican... 8 Strong Republican Other (VOL)... 3 Not sure Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. QF5 Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? + Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure... 3 QF6a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR "NOT SURE" IN QF6a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member? + Labor union member Union household... 7 Non-union household Not sure... 2 QF7 How often do you attend services at a church, synagogue, mosque, or other place of worship? (READ LIST.) + Never Once a year... 7 A few times a year Once a month... 7 About twice a month... 9 Once a week or more often Not sure Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
26 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 26 QF8 If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year, would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, or would the total be more than that? + Less than $10, Between $10,000 and $20, Between $20,000 and $30, Between $30,000 and $40, Between $40,000 and $50, Between $50,000 and $75, Between $75,000 and $100, More than $100, Not sure/refused... 5
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