October 15, Taylor leads Luria by 7% among likely voters, and maintains a 6% advantage among the most committed voters.

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1 October 15, 2018 ublican incumbent Scott Taylor leads ocrat Elaine Luria by 7 points, 50%-43%, in 2 nd District congressional contest; Taylor campaign s ballot signature scandal shows little effect Summary of Key Findings 1. Taylor leads Luria by 7% among likely voters, and maintains a 6% advantage among the most committed voters. 2. Taylor s lead stands in spite of ocratic voters showing a 10% enthusiasm advantage. 3. Voters are largely unfazed by the investigation into Taylor campaign workers turning in fraudulent signatures to help add an independent candidate to the ballot, with 68% of ependents saying the scandal does not matter. 4. Despite her own military background, former Navy Commander Luria is losing the vote of military households by 22% to former Navy Seal Taylor. 5. Incumbent ocratic Senator Tim Kaine leads ublican challenger Corey Stewart in the 2 nd District by 5%, 47%-42% among likely voters. For further information contact: Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director rachel.bitecofer@cnu.edu O: (757) Wason Center for Public Policy M: (541) Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director qkidd@cnu.edu O: (757) Wason Center for Public Policy M: (757)

2 Analysis Among registered voters who have voted in at least two of the last four general elections in Virginia, or who were new voters to Virginia in 2017 (n=798), ublican Scott Taylor currently holds a 7-point advantage over ocrat Elaine Luria, 50% to 43% in the 2nd Congressional District race. Notably, Taylor maintains almost his entire lead over Luria in our Committed Voter model, which analyzes only people who say they will definitely vote. Among these voters, Taylor leads Luria by 6 points, 50% to 44%. In both models, partisans are firmly entrenched in their camps, with both Taylor and Luria taking over 90% of their partisans support. ependents break for Taylor by 9 points, with nearly no change in the more restrictive turnout model, where the lead is 8 points. Despite a large gender gap favoring ocrats among women nationally and in other congressional races, the gender gap in this race is modest. Luria is winning women by 5 points. We also find a much narrower advantage for the ocrat among younger voters, perhaps reflecting the large military presence in the district. Luria holds a mere 2-point advantage among voters under the age of 45. Unlike his ublican peers in Congress, so far Taylor seems to be weathering a tough electoral environment well, said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. Among the 72% of voters aware of the investigation into Taylor campaign workers gathering fraudulent signatures to help put an independent candidate on the ballot, the vast majority report that it does not matter. Most notably, 68% of ependents report that the scandal does not matter to their vote. Luria s military background as a retired Navy Commander does not appear to offset Taylor s advantage among military voters, who tend to lean ublican. Taylor, a former Navy Seal, holds a 22-point advantage among voters from a military household. Luria does not appear to benefit much from a Trump Bump that is helping ocrats elsewhere. President Donald Trump s job approval is upside down among likely voters in the 2 nd District, with 46% saying they approve and 51% saying they disapprove. By comparison, in Virginia s 10 th District, a Wason Center poll on released Oct. 4 showed Trump s job approval in a deep hole, 38% to 59%, and ocrat Jennifer Wexton leading incumbent ublican Barbara Comstock by 7 points. But the 2 nd district is not a ublican lock. Although Trump carried the 2 nd district by 3 points in 2016, ocrat Ralph Northam won it by 4 points in the 2017 governor s race. If ocratic turnout reaches its 2017 level, this race could narrow or even flip unexpectedly to Luria, said Bitecofer. Much depends on whether ocratic voters in this district maintain their enthusiasm through Election Day. ocrats currently hold a 10-point enthusiasm advantage among 2 nd District voters. Although the Wason Center is not polling Virginia s U.S. Senate race statewide, we wanted to get a sense of how the race between incumbent ocratic Senator Tim Kaine and ublican challenger Corey Stewart stood in one of the more competitive congressional races in the state. Among voters in the 2 nd District, Kaine holds a 5-point 2

3 lead over Stewart, 47% to 42%. Libertarian candidate Matt Waters is receiving 5% of the vote, and 5% say they are undecided. By comparison, in the Wason Center s Oct. 4 survey of the 10 th District, Kaine led Stewart by 21 points, 55%-34%. HOUSE: If the election for House or resentatives were being held today and the candidates were for whom would you vote? [names rotated] 1. Scott Taylor, the ublican 2. Elaine Luria, the ocrat 3. Undecided (vol) 9. Dk/ref (vol) Likely Voter Model (n=798) All Males Taylor Luria Undecided Dk/Ref (vol) Committed Voter Model Females White Black Conservative Liberal (n=682) All Males Taylor Luria Undecided Dk/Ref (vol) Other Findings Females White ENTH: How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in this election? Would you say you are 1. Very Enthusiastic 2. Somewhat Enthusiastic 3. Not Enthusiastic 9. Dk/ref (vol) Black Conservative Liberal (n=798) All Very Enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not Enthusiastic Dk/Ref (vol)

4 MILT: Are you, or is anyone in your household a current or former member of the Armed Forces? 1. Yes 2. No 9. Dk/ref (vol) Yes No Taylor Luria Undecided 3 6 Dk/Ref (vol) 1 1 Q8A: Have you seen, read, or heard about an issue Scott Taylor s campaign had regarding forged signatures in petitions collected by his campaign for a candidate named Shaun Brown who wanted to run as an independent? 1. Yes No 28 Q8B: Did what you see, read, or heard about this issue make you more or less likely to vote for Scott Taylor or did it not matter to your vote? [INTERVIEWER: If answer is more/less probe for much or somewhat, if respondent asks you to explain what happens, tell them you cannot because it may bias the survey] 1. Much More Likely 6 2. Somewhat More Likely 2 3. Did Not Matter Somewhat Less Likely Much Less Likely Dk/ref (vol) 1 Military Not Military Much More Likely Somewhat More Likely <1 3 Did Not Matter Somewhat Less Likely Much Less Likely Dk/Ref (vol) SENATE: If the election for Senate were being held today and the candidates were for whom would you vote? [names rotated] 1. Corey Stewart, the ublican Tim Kaine, the ocrat Matt Waters, the Libertarian 5 4. Undecided 5 9. Dk/ref 1 TRUMP: Thinking about the job President Trump is doing as president, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? 1. Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove 7 4. Strongly Disapprove Dk/ref 3 4

5 ographics EDUC: High school or less 13 Some college 28 Vocational or technical training 4 College graduate 32 Graduate study or more 23 HISPANIC: Yes 4 No 96 RACE: White 73 Black or African American 15 Other 12 AGE: & older 33 PARTYID: ublican 36 ocrat 33 ependent 29 No preference (vol) 2 Other party (vol) <1 Dk/ref (vol) <1 [IF OTHER THAN REP OR DEM ABOVE] PARTLEAN: ublican 40 ocratic 29 ependent 30 RELIG: Christian 78 Jewish 2 Muslim 2 Other 9 No Preference 7 Dk/ref (vol) 1 IDEOL: Strong liberal 7 Liberal 9 Moderate, leaning liberal 24 Moderate, leaning conservative 22 Conservative 16 Strong Conservative 14 Dk/ref (vol) 8 INCOME: Under $25,000 2 $25-$49,999 9 $50-$74, $75-$99, $100,000-$149, Over $150, Dk/ref (vol) 12 SEX (interviewer coded): Male 48 Female 52 5

6 How the survey was conducted: The results of this poll are based on 798 interviews of registered voters in Virginia s 2nd congressional district who have voted in at least two of the last four elections or who were new voters to Virginia in 2017, including 256 on landline and 542 on cell phone, conducted October 3-12, Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey (Model 1, n=798) is +/- 4.0 % at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population s view on that issue is somewhere between 46% and 54%. The margin of error for the more restrictive model (Model 2, n=682) is +/- 4.4 at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups within cross-tables. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey s design effect, which is 1.35 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 19%. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newport University. In addition to the quotas imposed on the sample, the data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of likely voters in the 2nd congressional district of Virginia. 6