National. Likely General Election Voter Survey. November 14 th, On the web
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1 National Likely General Election Voter Survey November 14 th, 17 On the web
2 Methodology This survey of 1, likely general election voters nationwide was conducted on Nov. 9 th to 13 th, 17. All interviews were conducted online; survey invitations were distributed randomly within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election. This poll of 1, likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
3 Direction: United States - Time Series- Right Direction Wrong Track /14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2/6/172//173//174/24/175/31/178/28/17/13/17 11/14/17
4 8 7 6 Direction: United States Right Direction Wrong Track DK/Ref. 8 RD WT East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 6 89 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 7 23 Unfavorable Trump 7 88 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 9 87 Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 86 Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American 83 Hispanic 32 6 Under Over Married Single Men Women 31 59
5 Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama, OR Change direction and move away from the polices of President Obama - Time Series- Continue Obama Policies Change Direction /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2/6/17 2//17 3//17 4/24/17 5/31/17 8/28/17 /13/17 11/14/17
6 Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama, OR Change direction and move away from the policies of President Obama Continue Obama Policies 46 Change Direction 9 DK/Ref. Cont. Change East Midwest South 42 West Cont. Obama Pols. Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 82 9 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 9 86 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat 8 14 Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women 46 43
7 Job Rating: Donald Trump - Time Series- Approve Disapprove /16 1/17 2/6/17 2//17 3//17 4/24/17 5/31/17 8/28/17 /13/17 11/14/17
8 6 44 Job Rating: Donald Trump APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. 2 App. Disapp. East 58 Midwest South 46 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 97 3 Unfavorable Trump 5 94 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 6 93 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 91 8 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 79 Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American 9 88 Hispanic 36 6 Under Over Married 48 Single Men Women 41 56
9 Opinion: Donald Trump - Time Series- Favorable Unfavorable /16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2/6/17 2//17 3//17 4/24/17 5/31/17 8/28/17 /13/17 11/14/17
10 Opinion: Donald Trump FAV. Very S mwt UNFAV. S mwt Very NO OPIN. 4 Fav. Unfav. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols. 88 Change Direction Approve Trump 92 6 Disapprove Trump 2 96 Approve GOP Majority 8 18 Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 5 92 Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 9 89 Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White 47 African- American 8 82 Hispanic Under Over Married 48 Single Men 47 Women 37 58
11 7 6 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref App. Disapp. East Midwest South 35 6 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 9 86 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 9 86 Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 9 87 Vote Cong UND 66 Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American 11 8 Hispanic Under Over Married Single 61 Men Women 32 61
12 Generic Ballot for Congress - Time Series- Democratic Republican Undecided /14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2/6/172//173//174/24/175/31/178/28/17/13/17 11/14/17
13 6 22 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress GOP Def. Prob. Lean DEM Def. Prob. Lean UND. GOP DEM. UND. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women
14 Top Priority of President Trump and the new Congress 12/16 1/17 2/6/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Men Women ECONOMIC Creating Jobs Reducing Taxes SECURITY Nat l Sec./Terror Stop/Mideast Refugees Tear up Iran Nuke Deal Building Wall/Mexico REPEAL/REPLACE OBAMACARE D.K./REFUSED
15 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Men Women ECONOMIC Improving the Economy Jobs/Unemployment Wasteful Gov t Spending Reduce Budget/Deficit Hold Line/Taxes SOCIAL Protect Medicare Reform Healthcare Improving Education SECURITY Nat l Sec./Terror Defeat/Destroy ISIS Fix Immigration HONESTY/ INTEGRITY/D.C D.K./REFUSED
16 Current Opinion of the U.S. Economy 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Men Women NOT RECESSION Getting Better Getting Worse RECESSION Getting Better Getting Worse D.K./REFUSED GETTING BETTER GETTING WORSE D.K./REFUSED Net Diff
17 Do you approve or disapprove of repealing and replacing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare? -Time Series- Approve Disapprove /16 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17
18 Approve/Disapprove: Repealing/ Replacing Obamacare APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. 5 App. Disapp. East 44 Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 87 Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat 77 Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative 75 No College Degree College Graduate 47 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married 55 Single Men Women 48 47
19 Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services, or a larger government with many services?- Time Series- Smaller Larger /15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 11/16 12/16 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17
20 Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services, or a larger government with many services? Smaller Gov't Larger Gov't DK/Ref. Smaller Larger East Midwest South West 54 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 69 Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 56 Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women 45 33
21 Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump s plan to cut taxes? /14/17 11/14/17 Approve Disapprove APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. 9 App. Disapp. East Midwest South 6 34 West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 86 9 Approve Trump 9 6 Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority 9 6 Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 91 5 Unfavorable Trump 59 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 9 6 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 91 5 Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican 89 6 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate 49 Conservative 8 13 No College Degree College Graduate White 62 African- American Hispanic 49 Under Over Married Single Men Women 54 35
22 Is it personally more important to you that Congress pass a bill to reform taxes or to cut taxes? Reform Taxes Cut Taxes DK/Ref. Reform Cut East Midwest 54 South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 55 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump 55 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women 45 35
23 Which do you think is the most important goal for President Trump's tax cut plan: Grow Economy Grow the economy to create millions of jobs Simplify the tax code Provide tax relief to middle income families 17 Simplify Tax Code /14/17 11/14/17 Grow Economy 31 Simplify Code 17 Tax Relief Middle Income Tax Relief 8 Don't Know Econ. Code Relief East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women
24 Do you support or oppose lowering the corporate tax rate for large and small businesses in the United States from 35% to %? 6 /14/17 11/14/17 Support 51 Oppose SUPPORT Strongly Smwt OPPOSE Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. Support Oppose East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction 7 19 Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 58 Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women 46 38
25 Which do you think is the better way to pay for the tax cuts proposed by President Trump: Grow the economy to provide more jobs, higher wages and more tax revenue. Eliminating tax deductions and raising taxes on upper income taxpayers and businesses /14/17 11/14/17 Grow the Economy Raise Taxes Grow the Economy Raise Taxes Unsure 8 Growth Taxes East 6 32 Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority 7 23 Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 43 Vote Cong UND Republican 7 23 Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men 6 35 Women 54 34
26 Do you approve or disapprove of eliminating all federal income tax deductions for state and local taxes that taxpayers pay on property and income taxes? /14/17 11/14/17 Approve Disapprove APP. S trongly S mwt DIS APP. S mwt S trongly DK/Ref. App. Disapp. East Midwest South West Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump 33 Disapprove Trump Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump 33 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 32 Vote Cong. 18 DEM Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 57 Moderate Conservative No College Degree 37 College Graduate 35 White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single 37 Men Women 34 41
27 Do you approve or disapprove of KEEPING the federal income tax deductions for state and local taxes for property and income taxes for households who earn less than $, a year, BUT ELIMINATING the deduction for those who have ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOMES ABOVE $,? /14/17 11/14/17 Approve 59 Disapprove APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref App. Disapp. East Midwest South 52 West 66 Cont. Obama Pols Change Direction Approve Trump Disapprove Trump 56 Approve GOP Majority Disapprove GOP Majority Favorable Trump 65 Unfavorable Trump 56 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP Vote Cong. 18 DEM 57 Vote Cong UND Republican Democrat Independent Liberal 61 Moderate Conservative No College Degree College Graduate White African- American Hispanic Under Over Married Single Men Women 54 27
28 Voter Profile Party Total Age Total Race Total Republican 33% % White 71% Democrat 36% - 19% African American 12% Independent 31% % Hispanic 11% Ideology % % Asian 4% Liberal 26% Over 65 16% Gender % Moderate 39% Male 47% Conservative 35% Female 53%
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