TIME FOR A WOMAN IN THE OVAL OFFICE? NEW JERSEYANS AGREE COUNTRY IS READY

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: TUESDAY FEBRUARY 17, 2015 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Director David Redlawsk may be contacted at (cell), (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Poll manager Ashley Koning may be contacted at or akoning@rutgers.edu. Find releases and additional blog commentary at Follow the on Facebook at and TIME FOR A WOMAN IN THE OVAL OFFICE? NEW JERSEYANS AGREE COUNTRY IS READY Clinton clobbers Christie, other GOP hopefuls in NJ matchups, finds NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. With all signs pointing to a second presidential campaign by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 80 percent of New Jersey voters say Americans are ready for a woman in the Oval Office, according to a new. Just 16 percent think the country is not yet ready for such a groundbreaking event. Further, half of Garden State voters hope to see a woman become president in their lifetime, although the other half says it does not matter to them personally. For many, hope for a woman president is apparently related to being ready for Hillary. A large majority of New Jersey voters has a positive view of Clinton and her potential, with 63 percent saying she would make a good president overall. Respondents are very upbeat about Clinton: 70 percent say she has the right look to be president, 74 percent say she has the right demeanor and personality and 83 percent say she has the right amount of experience when considered against other potential Democratic contenders. During Hillary Clinton s first campaign for president, there was a great deal of talk about how voters would respond to her gender, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. In January 2008, a CNN poll found Americans more ready for a black president than a woman. Fast forward seven years and New Jerseyans, at least, have little doubt that the country is now ready for a woman president. Clinton continues to command high favorability ratings here. Her 59 percent favorable to 31 percent unfavorable rating puts her well ahead of any other figures the poll tested, including President Obama (53 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable). One result of her strong showing is that she easily crushes potential 2016 Republican opponents in New Jersey head-to-head matchups. She tops Gov. Chris Christie, 58 percent to 35 percent; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 58 percent to 32 percent; and Wisc. Gov. Schott Walker, 60 percent to 29 percent. Results are from a statewide poll of 813 residents contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Feb. 3-10, 2015, including 694 registered voters reported on in this release. The 1

2 registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. Partisanship, gender and a woman president Democrats (85 percent) and independent voters (83 percent) overwhelmingly believe the nation is ready for a woman president. Republicans are less certain, with 67 percent agreeing and 31 percent disagreeing. Partisanship plays an even stronger role when it comes to personal hopes regarding a woman in the Oval Office. Two-thirds of Democrats want to see a woman in the White House in their lifetime, but 70 percent of Republicans say such an historic event does not matter to them. Independents are split 47 percent hope for a woman president, while 53 percent say it does not matter. Of course, asking about the potential for a woman president brings only one candidate easily to mind for most Hillary Clinton, noted Redlawsk. Voters are influenced by who they can imagine in the White House, so Republicans are dramatically less likely to want it to happen any time soon. Given a strong female Republican candidate, we would no doubt see a significant shift among GOP supporters. Men and women also differ in their expectations about a future woman president. Men are more likely to say the U.S. is ready to elect one, 84 percent to 77 percent. Women are 16 points more likely to personally hope to see a woman elected in their lifetime, 58 percent to 42 percent. Given Hillary Clinton s prominence, the desire to see a woman president is especially driven by Democratic women voters. More than 70 percent want to see a woman elected in their lifetime, compared to just over 50 percent of Democratic men. There is no gender gap among Republicans: about 30 percent of each gender personally hopes to see a woman elected during their lifetime. But regardless of party, women are less likely to think the country is ready for one of their own as president, with the same gap between men and women evident for Republicans, Democrats and independents. Women are more likely to see gender discrimination, which probably makes them more cautious about the prospects for a woman president, said Redlawsk. On the other hand, Democratic women in particular want to see their gender finally represented in the White House, something that doesn t resonate the same way with men of any partisan stripe. These patterns track with national averages. Clinton s presidential prospects high among voter base Even as an unannounced candidate, Clinton has most New Jersey voters believing in her capabilities, especially voters most likely to be among her base. Eighty-nine percent of Democrats and 60 percent of independents agree Clinton would make a good president overall. Only 27 percent of Republicans feel the same. Women are more likely to agree than men (66 percent versus 59 percent). voters and those under 65 years old are more likely as well. As for particular presidential qualities, Clinton does well even with Republicans, half of whom agree that she has the right look to be president; 86 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of 2

3 independents say the same. As for her presidential demeanor and personality, 92 percent of Democrats, 74 percent of independents and 47 percent of Republicans agree with the statement. Additionally, 95 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of independents and 64 percent of Republicans concur that Clinton has the right experience to be president. Men and women share similar views on these questions. and younger to middle-age voters resemble Democrats in their assessments. Even a fair share of those unfavorable toward Clinton herself say she has the right look (42 percent), demeanor (35 percent) and especially experience (61 percent) though only 16 percent of this group say she would make a good president. While they are not particularly interested in her becoming president, even Republicans see Hillary Clinton as experienced and of presidential character compared to other unnamed Democratic candidates, said Redlawsk. More importantly, she does well on these characteristics among independents, crucial to any general election. Top GOP candidates no match in New Jersey Clinton s favorability rating has remained well above 50 percent throughout the past year, after an initial slip from 65 percent in January Democrats are overwhelmingly favorable toward Clinton, at 88 percent. More than over half of independents agree, but just over one in five Republicans feels the same. Women are 11 points more likely to have a favorable impression of her than men (64 percent to 53 percent). voters are much more likely than white voters to feel favorably towards Clinton 79 percent versus 50 percent. Tested head-to-head with Christie, Bush or Walker, Clinton maintains large leads across a wide range of New Jersey voters. Christie does slightly better than Bush and Walker but still loses to Clinton by wide margins among most groups, except Republicans and conservatives. Walker does the worst of all three GOP governors among independents and Republicans when pitted against Clinton. Bush sees the largest gender gap in his matchup. Those who say Clinton has the right look, demeanor, and experience, and would make a good president overall, are much more likely to say they would vote for her in each matchup. Just under twothirds of those who think the U.S. is ready for a woman president prefer Clinton in all matchups, as do about three-quarters of those who hope to see a woman president in their lifetime. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3

4 Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of February 17, 2015 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask about some people and groups. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. [OTHER NAMES ALSO GIVEN; ORDER RANDOMIZED; HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE] FORMER SEC. OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE FORMER GOV. JEB BUSH GOV. SCOTT WALKER Favorable 59% 53% 37% 26% 16% Unfavorable 31% 38% 53% 39% 22% No opn/don t know person 10% 9% 10% 34% 62% Unwgt N= Favorable 88% 53% 22% 82% 59% 32% 53% 64% 50% 79% 59% 60% 54% Unfavorable 6% 34% 69% 13% 28% 60% 36% 27% 40% 9% 24% 31% 39% Don t know 6% 13% 9% 5% 13% 8% 11% 9% 10% 11% 17% 9% 7% Unwt N= [QUESTIONS ON OTHER POLITICAL FIGURES LOCATED HERE; HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE] [ROTATE ORDER OF THE FOLLOWING THREE QUESTIONS] 4

5 Q. If the election for president were today, and the candidates were [ROTATE ORDER: Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton], for whom would you vote? Clinton Make a Good President Look Demeanor Experience not Yes No Yes No Yes No Clinton 58% 82% 8% 70% 25% 74% 10% 66% 11% Christie 35% 14% 82% 25% 66% 20% 81% 28% 77% Someone else (vol) 4% 1% 8% 3% 6% 3% 6% 3% 9% Don't know 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Unwgt N= Clinton 88% 57% 11% 82% 60% 25% 54% 61% 50% 77% 59% 61% 50% Christie 8% 34% 84% 16% 32% 66% 37% 33% 43% 16% 31% 34% 42% Someone else 1% 6% 3% 1% 5% 6% 5% 3% 4% 3% 6% 2% 4% Don't know 4% 3% 2% 1% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% Unwt N= Q. If the election for president were today, and the candidates were [ROTATE ORDER: Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton], for whom would you vote? Clinton Make a Good President Look Demeanor Experience not Yes No Yes No Yes No Clinton 58% 84% 7% 71% 25% 74% 10% 67% 9% Bush 32% 9% 79% 20% 65% 17% 79% 24% 77% Someone else (vol) 4% 1% 10% 3% 7% 3% 10% 3% 12% Don't know 6% 6% 4% 6% 4% 7% 1% 6% 2% Unwgt N= Clinton 93% 54% 11% 82% 59% 28% 53% 63% 51% 77% 64% 60% 50% Bush 5% 30% 80% 14% 28% 62% 38% 26% 38% 15% 26% 30% 40% Someone else 1% 7% 5% 1% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 2% 5% 3% 7% Don't know 2% 9% 5% 3% 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 4% Unwt N=

6 Q. If the election for president were today, and the candidates were [ROTATE ORDER: Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton], for whom would you vote? Clinton Make a Good President Look Demeanor Experience not Yes No Yes No Yes No Clinton 60% 86% 9% 74% 25% 76% 8% 69% 8% Walker 29% 7% 77% 16% 63% 13% 80% 21% 77% Someone else (vol) 3% 1% 6% 2% 3% 2% 5% 2% 8% Don't know 8% 7% 9% 7% 9% 8% 7% 8% 6% Unwgt N= Clinton 91% 57% 15% 81% 63% 27% 56% 63% 52% 80% 66% 63% 48% Walker 5% 26% 74% 12% 24% 61% 34% 25% 36% 12% 25% 27% 37% Someone else 1% 5% 2% 1% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 5% 2% 3% Don't know 3% 12% 8% 5% 9% 10% 7% 9% 9% 6% 4% 8% 12% Unwt N= [END OF QUESTION ORDER ROTATION] [ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS ABOUT CHRIS CHRISTIE APPEARED HERE; HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE.] [THE FOLLOWING FOUR QUESTIONS WERE ASKED FOR BOTH HILLARY CLINTON AND CHRIS CHRITIE, WITH CHRISTIE ITEMS BEING HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE. CANDIDATE ORDER FOR THIS SET OF CLINTON AND CHRISTIE ITEMS WAS ROTATED.] Q. Do you think Hillary Clinton would or would not make a good president? Clinton Favorability Fav Unfav She would make a good president 63% 90% 16% She would not make a good president 31% 6% 81% Don't know 7% 5% 4% Unwgt N= She would 89% 60% 27% 82% 64% 38% 59% 66% 55% 82% 69% 66% 51% She would not 5% 32% 70% 12% 29% 57% 36% 26% 38% 12% 24% 29% 41% Don't know 6% 8% 3% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5% 9% Unwt N=

7 Q. For each of the following, please tell me whether it does or does not apply to Hillary Clinton, compared to other potential Democratic presidential candidates. A. She has the right look to be president B. She has the right demeanor and personality to be president C. She has the right amount of experience to be president Right Right Right look demeanor experience Yes, applies 70% 74% 83% No, does not apply 23% 24% 15% Don't know 7% 2% 2% Unwgt N= A. Right look to be president Clinton Favorability Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Fav Unfav Yes 86% 68% 50% 83% 69% 56% 68% 72% 67% 80% 75% 76% 53% 85% 42% No 8% 23% 44% 13% 21% 37% 25% 20% 26% 14% 21% 19% 31% 8% 49% Don't know 6% 9% 6% 4% 9% 6% 7% 8% 7% 6% 3% 5% 16% 7% 9% Unwt N= B. Right demeanor and personality to be president Clinton Favorability Dem Ind Fav Unfav Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Yes 92% 74% 47% 92% 74% 53% 71% 77% 69% 87% 77% 79% 60% 95% 35% No 5% 24% 52% 6% 23% 44% 27% 21% 29% 11% 19% 20% 37% 4% 63% Don't know 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 3% 1% 2% Unwt N= C. Right amount of experience to be president Gender Race Age Clinton Party ID Ideology Favorability Fav Unfav Yes 95% 83% 64% 97% 83% 67% 81% 84% 81% 88% 87% 85% 73% 95% 61% No 2% 16% 35% 3% 14% 31% 18% 13% 18% 8% 12% 14% 22% 3% 39% Don't know 3% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% 4% 1% 1% 5% 2% 1% Unwt N= [END OF QUESTION ORDER ROTATION] 7

8 Q. In general, do you think the United States is ready for a woman president, or not? Yes 80% No 16% Don't know 4% Unwgt N= 690 Yes 85% 83% 67% 83% 83% 75% 84% 77% 81% 78% 81% 82% 76% No 9% 13% 31% 15% 11% 24% 13% 18% 15% 18% 18% 14% 18% Don't know 5% 4% 3% 3% 6% 2% 2% 5% 4% 4% 2% 4% 6% Unwt N= Q. Do you personally hope the United States will elect a woman president in your lifetime, or does that not matter to you? Yes 50% No, does not matter 50% Unwgt N= 686 Yes 66% 47% 30% 67% 49% 34% 42% 58% 49% 55% 59% 51% 42% No 34% 53% 70% 33% 51% 66% 58% 42% 51% 45% 41% 49% 58% Unwt N= February 3 10, 2015 The was conducted by telephone using live callers February 3-10, 2015 with a scientifically selected random sample of 813 New Jersey adults. The sample contains a subsample of 694 registered voters. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested to do it in that language. This telephone poll included 290 landline and 523 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 13% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 23% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 59% Landline Only: 5% Data were weighted to the demographics adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic 8

9 variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5th and 95th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 813 adults is +/-3.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.41, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for the 694 registered voters is +/-3.7 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The registered voter subsample weighting design effect is 1.30, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.2 percentage points for the registered voter subsample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.8 and 54.2 percent (50 +/-4.2) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 694 New Jersey Registered Voters 34% Democrat 47% Male 13% % White 45% Independent 53% Female 30% % Black 21% Republican 32% % Hispanic 24% % Asian/Other/Multi 9