National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1991 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report July 13-14, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % Q172 P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 POL1_5 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove % Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 79 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues % Health Care Issues % Senior s Issues % Women s Issues 108 5% Education Issues 100 5% Energy Issues 61 3% Other 99 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_6 Question Response Frequency Percentage Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL2 POL3_1 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 146 7% Should not be done 137 7% Dont know/no opinion 146 7% Page 2

3 POL3_4 Question Response Frequency Percentage How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 153 8% POL3_5 POL3_6 POL3_7 POL3_8 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 187 9% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 173 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 62 3% Dont know/no opinion % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and financial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 116 6% Dont know/no opinion % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 111 6% Dont know/no opinion 172 9% Page 3

4 POL3_9 Question Response Frequency Percentage How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 127 6% POL3_10 POL3_11 POL3_12 POL4_1 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 167 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget deficit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 44 2% Dont know/no opinion 165 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 133 7% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Judge Brett Kavanaugh being nominated to the Supreme Court A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all % Page 4

5 POL4_4 Question Response Frequency Percentage How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? President Trump attending the annual NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all % POL5_1 POL5_4 POL5_5 How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? The military A lot % Some % Not much 159 8% None at all 77 4% Don t Know / No Opinion 87 4% How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Small business A lot % Some % Not much 168 8% None at all 61 3% Don t Know / No Opinion 121 6% How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? The police A lot % Some % Not much % None at all 163 8% Don t Know / No Opinion 73 4% POL5_6 How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? The church / organized religion A lot % Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 122 6% POL5_7 How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? The health care system A lot % Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 89 4% Page 5

6 POL5_8 Question Response Frequency Percentage How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? The presidency A lot % Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 98 5% POL5_9 POL5_10 POL5_11 POL5_12 POL5_13 How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? The U.S. Supreme Court A lot % Some % Not much % None at all 140 7% Don t Know / No Opinion 126 6% How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Public schools A lot % Some % Not much % None at all 146 7% Don t Know / No Opinion 93 5% How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Banks A lot % Some % Not much % None at all 178 9% Don t Know / No Opinion 99 5% How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Organized labor A lot % Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion % How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? The criminal justice system A lot % Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 91 5% Page 6

7 POL5_14 Question Response Frequency Percentage How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Television news A lot % Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 84 4% POL5_15 POL5_16 POL5_17 POL6 POL7 How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Newspapers A lot % Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 101 5% How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Big businesses A lot 160 8% Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 129 6% How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions? Congress A lot 145 7% Some % Not much % None at all % Don t Know / No Opinion 125 6% When the Senate votes on Judge Brett Kavanaughs nomination to the Supreme Court, do you think the Senate should vote to confirm him as a Supreme Court Justice, or not? Vote to confirm % Vote not to confirm % Dont Know/No Opinion % Do you think that the Senate should vote on confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court before the midterm election in November, or should the Senate wait until after new Senators have taken office in January following the midterm election? Vote on confirming before the midterm election in % November Wait to vote on confirming until after new Senators % have taken office in January Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 7

8 POL8_1 Question Response Frequency Percentage When thinking about your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate, how important is the following issue? How the candidate will vote when it comes to confirming nominees to the Supreme Court Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 177 9% Not important at all 42 2% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL9 POL10 POL11 POL12 When it comes to voting for Judge Brett Kavanaughs nomination to the Supreme Court, do you think Senators should vote based primarily on... Whether Judge Kavanaugh is qualified to be appointed % to the Supreme Court Where Senators think Judge Kavanaugh stands on % political and social issues that might come before the Supreme Court Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, Supreme Court Justices currently receive lifetime appointments to the court. Some people have proposed placing a term limit on Supreme Court Justices. Do you support or oppose placing a term limit on Supreme Court Justices? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose % Strongly oppose % Dont Know/No Opinion % How important do you believe it is for the Supreme Court to uphold past decisions made by the court? Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 176 9% Not important at all 54 3% Dont Know/No Opinion % Which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? Supreme Court justices should uphold past decisions % made by the court in most cases, even if they don t agree with them. Supreme Court justices should give more weight to % their own opinion of the law, rather than to previous Supreme Court decisions Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 8

9 POL13 POL14 POL15 POL16 POL17 Question Response Frequency Percentage As you may know, some people have proposed adding two additional seats to the Supreme Court, bringing the total number of Justices to eleven. Those who propose adding two additional seats to the Supreme Court say that it would bring more ideological balance to the court. Based on what you know, do you support or oppose adding two additional seats to the Supreme Court? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose % Strongly oppose % Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court decision in Roe v. Wade ruled that a womans decision to have an abortion is protected by the Constitution. Do you believe that Roe v. Wade should remain the law or be overturned? Roe v. Wade should remain the law % Roe v. Wade should be overturned % Dont Know/No Opinion % If a nominee to the Supreme Court were to support overturning Roe v. Wade, would you be more or less likely to support their confirmation, or would it make no difference either way? Much more likely to support % Somewhat more likely to support % Somewhat less likely to support 183 9% Much less likely to support % No difference either way % Dont Know/No Opinion % Which comes closest to your view on abortion? Abortion should always be legal % Abortion should be legal most of the time % Abortion should be made illegal except for cases of % rape, incest, and to save the mothers life Abortion should be made illegal without exceptions 176 9% Dont Know/No Opinion 173 9% Do you approve or disapprove of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? Strongly approve % Somewhat approve % Somewhat disapprove % Strongly disapprove 111 6% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % Page 9

10 Question Response Frequency Percentage POL18_1 As you may know, the United States is part of a military alliance with more than 20 countries in Europe called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The treaty that created NATO requires member states to defend each other if one is attacked by any other nation. Knowing this, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) costs the United States too much money. (N=1,005) Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Dont Know/ No Opinion % POL18_4 As you may know, the United States is part of a military alliance with more than 20 countries in Europe called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The treaty that created NATO requires member states to defend each other if one is attacked by any other nation. Knowing this, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? When it comes to funding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), other members do not pay their fair share. (N=986) Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Dont Know/ No Opinion % POL18_5 As you may know, the United States is part of a military alliance with more than 20 countries in Europe called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The treaty that created NATO requires member states to defend each other if one is attacked by any other nation. Knowing this, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? When it comes to funding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), other members do pay their fair share. (N=1,014) Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree 69 7% Dont Know/ No Opinion % Page 10

11 Question Response Frequency Percentage POL18_6 As you may know, the United States is part of a military alliance with more than 20 countries in Europe called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The treaty that created NATO requires member states to defend each other if one is attacked by any other nation. Knowing this, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is obsolete. (N=977) Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Dont Know/ No Opinion % POL18_7 As you may know, the United States is part of a military alliance with more than 20 countries in Europe called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The treaty that created NATO requires member states to defend each other if one is attacked by any other nation. Knowing this, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) does enough to fight terrorism. Strongly agree 154 8% Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Dont Know/ No Opinion % POL18_8 As you may know, the United States is part of a military alliance with more than 20 countries in Europe called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The treaty that created NATO requires member states to defend each other if one is attacked by any other nation. Knowing this, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) does not do enough to fight terrorism. (N=1,029) Strongly agree 97 9% Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Dont Know/ No Opinion % POL19 As you may know, President Donald Trump recently attended the annual NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium. Based on what you know, would you say that President Donald Trumps time at the annual NATO summit was: Very successful % Somewhat successful % Not too successful % Not successful at all % Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 11

12 POL20 POL21 Question Response Frequency Percentage Would you say that President Trump represented U.S. interests at the annual NATO summit: Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well % Not well at all % Dont Know/No Opinion % Would you say that federal consumer protection has gotten better or worse under the Trump Administration, or has it stayed about the same? Better % Worse % Stayed about the same % Dont Know/No Opinion % POL22_1 POL22_4 POL23 How would you rate the Trump Administration at each of the following? Protecting consumers from fraud and abuse Excellent % Good % Fair % Poor % Dont Know/No Opinion % How would you rate the Trump Administration at each of the following? Protecting Treasury funds from fraud and abuse Excellent % Good % Fair % Poor % Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, some have speculated that Hillary Clinton will run for President again in Do you believe that Clinton should run for President, or not? Hillary Clinton should run for President in % Hillary Clinton should not run for President in % Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 12

13 Question Response Frequency Percentage indpresapp_id3_2 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Very Favorable 88 4% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % indpresapp_id3_3 indpresapp_id3_6 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Paul Ryan Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 164 8% Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Nancy Pelosi Very Favorable 187 9% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 178 9% Page 13

14 Question Response Frequency Percentage indpresapp_id3_7 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Charles Schumer Very Favorable 173 9% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % indpresapp_indpresapp_10 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mike Pence Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 106 5% indpresapp_indpresapp_11 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Donald Trump Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable 182 9% Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 77 4% Never Heard Of 12 1% Page 14

15 Question Response Frequency Percentage indpresapp_indpresapp_12 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Republicans in Congress Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 170 9% Never Heard Of 56 3% indpresapp_indpresapp_13 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Democrats in Congress Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 168 8% Never Heard Of 59 3% indpresapp_indpresapp_14 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Melania Trump Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 36 2% Page 15

16 Question Response Frequency Percentage indpresapp_indpresapp_15 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Ivanka Trump Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 51 3% indpresapp_indpresapp_17 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Jared Kushner Very Favorable 178 9% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % indpresapp_indpresapp_22 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Kellyanne Conway Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % Page 16

17 Question Response Frequency Percentage indpresapp_indpresapp_24 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Jeff Sessions Very Favorable 104 5% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % indpresapp_indpresapp_25 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Robert Mueller Q172_CONDENSED Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Approve % Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 79 4% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 17

18 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 1864 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men % PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men % PID/Gender: Ind Women % PID/Gender: Rep Men % PID/Gender: Rep Women % xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 1822 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad % Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #180724, July, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic % demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 128 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else % N 1746 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 64 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 1148 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian % N 1984 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 120 6% Employ: Self-Employed 165 8% Employ: Homemaker 118 6% Employ: Student 89 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 180 9% Employ: Other 151 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes % Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 19

20 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track % Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 1912 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove % Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 1912 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care % #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security % #1 Issue: Women s Issues 108 5% #1 Issue: Education 100 5% #1 Issue: Energy 61 3% #1 Issue: Other 99 5% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 151 8% N 1646 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 69 3% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 1990 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast % 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 1902 Continued on next page Page 20

21 National Tracking Poll #180724, July, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 182 9% Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 1902 xpidage2 PID/Age: Dem % PID/Age: Dem % PID/Age: Dem % PID/Age: Dem % PID/Age: Dem % PID/Age: Ind % PID/Age: Ind % PID/Age: Ind % PID/Age: Ind % PID/Age: Ind % PID/Age: Rep % PID/Age: Rep % PID/Age: Rep % PID/Age: Rep % PID/Age: Rep % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 21

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