National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1989 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report October 05-06, 2016 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction 55 28% Wrong Track % P2NET P2 P3 C4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Approve % Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 70 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 280 4% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 70 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues % Health Care Issues 229 2% Senior s Issues 225 % Women s Issues 0 5% Education Issues 6 6% Energy Issues 82 4% Other 83 4% Did you happen to watch the most recent vice presidential debate between Tim Kaine and Mike Pence on Tuesday, October 4th? Yes % No % Dont Know / No Opinion 76 4% Page 1

2 C5 Question Response Frequency Percentage And, did you... (N=829) Watch all of the debate % Watch most of the debate % Watch only some of the debate % I didnt watch the debate, but read or heard about the 2 3% debate on the news or social media Don t Know / No Opinion 5 % C6 C7 C8_1 C8_2 Based on what you know, who do you think won the (2016) vice presidential debate on television on Tuesday, October 4th? Tim Kaine % Mike Pence % Don t Know / No Opinion % And, did the vice presidential debate happen to change your mind about who you will vote for in Novembers election? (N=829) Yes 82 0% No % Don t Know / No Opinion 55 7% less favorable view of each of the following, or did it have no impact either way? Donald Trump (N=829) Much more favorable 76 2 % Somewhat more favorable 47 8% Somewhat less favorable 66 8% Much less favorable 79 22% Had no impact either way % Don t Know / No Opinion 25 3% less favorable view of each of the following, or did it have no impact either way? Hillary Clinton (N=829) Much more favorable 30 6% Somewhat more favorable 24 5% Somewhat less favorable 68 8% Much less favorable % Had no impact either way % Don t Know / No Opinion 25 3% Page 2

3 Question Response Frequency Percentage C8_3 less favorable view of each of the following, or did it have no impact either way? Tim Kaine (N=829) Much more favorable 98 2% Somewhat more favorable 54 9% Somewhat less favorable 23 5% Much less favorable % Had no impact either way 54 9% Don t Know / No Opinion 27 3% C8_4 C8_5 C9 C10 less favorable view of each of the following, or did it have no impact either way? Mike Pence (N=829) Much more favorable % Somewhat more favorable 58 9% Somewhat less favorable 07 3% Much less favorable 44 7% Had no impact either way 24 5% Don t Know / No Opinion 2 3% less favorable view of each of the following, or did it have no impact either way? Moderator Elaine Quijano (N=829) Much more favorable 60 7% Somewhat more favorable 24 5% Somewhat less favorable 38 7% Much less favorable 66 20% Had no impact either way % Don t Know / No Opinion 83 0% How would you describe the job that Elaine Quijano did as moderator of the vice presidential debate on Tuesday, October 4? (N=829) Excellent 3% Good % Only Fair % Poor 73 2 % Don t Know / No Opinion 27 3% Who would you rather vote for as President, Donald Trump or Mike Pence? (N=789) Donald Trump % Mike Pence % Don t Know / No Opinion 68 9% Page 3

4 C11 Question Response Frequency Percentage Who would you rather vote for as President, Hillary Clinton or Tim Kaine? (N=842) Hillary Clinton % Tim Kaine 79 9% Don t Know / No Opinion 59 7% C12 C13 C17_1 C17_2 C17_3 If Donald Trump were to lose the 2016 election, which one of the following Republicans would be your top choice to see run for President in 2020? Marco Rubio 68 8% Ted Cruz 93 0% Mike Pence 267 3% Paul Ryan 2 7 % Tom Cotton 22 % John Kasich 2 0 % Donald Trump 4 7% Other (please specify) 87 4% Don t Know / No Opinion % If Hillary Clinton were to lose the 2016 election, which one of the following Democrats would be your top choice to see run for President in 2020? Elizabeth Warren 326 6% Cory Booker 09 5% Tim Kaine 206 0% Andrew Cuomo 24 6% Other (please specify) 57 8% Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you think each of the following are role models for children today, or not? Hillary Clinton Yes % No % Don t Know / No Opinion 2 5 % Do you think each of the following are role models for children today, or not? Donald Trump Yes 343 7% No % Don t Know / No Opinion 2 % Do you think each of the following are role models for children today, or not? Barack Obama Yes % No 84 42% Don t Know / No Opinion 79 9% Page 4

5 C18 C19 Question Response Frequency Percentage If a candidate for public office said Donald Trump was a role model for children today, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or would it not have much impact either way? Much more likely to vote for the candidate 80 9% Somewhat more likely to vote for the candidate 93 0% Somewhat less likely to vote for the candidate 49 7% Much less likely to vote for the candidate % Has no impact either way % Don t Know / No Opinion 59 8% If a candidate for public office said Hillary Clinton was a role model for children today, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or would it not have much impact either way? Much more likely to vote for the candidate 263 3% Somewhat more likely to vote for the candidate 304 5% Somewhat less likely to vote for the candidate 20 6% Much less likely to vote for the candidate 30 5% Has no impact either way % Don t Know / No Opinion 66 8% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 5

6 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 304 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 308 5% PID/Gender: Ind Women 324 6% PID/Gender: Rep Men 3 6 6% PID/Gender: Rep Women 328 6% xdemtea Tea Party: Supporter % Tea Party: Not Supporter % N 979 xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 826 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 240 2% xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % Continued on next page Page 6

7 National Tracking Poll #161001, October, 2016 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 78 9% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 3 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 278 4% N 777 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 5 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 92 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 92 60% Relig: All Non-Christian % N 988 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 29 6% Employ: Self-Employed 38 7% Employ: Homemaker 203 0% Employ: Student 48 2% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 58 8% Employ: Other 39 7% xdemjobstatus Job Type: White-collar % Job Type: Blue-collar 83 42% Job Type: Don t Know 360 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 382 9% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 7

8 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction 55 28% RD/WT: Wrong Track % xnr2bin Obama Job: Approve % Obama Job: Disapprove % N 9 9 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care 229 2% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 225 % #1 Issue: Women s Issues 0 5% #1 Issue: Education 6 6% #1 Issue: Energy 82 4% #1 Issue: Other 83 4% xsubvote14o 2014 Vote: Democrat % 2014 Vote: Republican % 2014 Vote: Other 95 5% 2014 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 98 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 84 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote 37 9% N 982 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 363 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % xv16g Vote: Clinton % 2016 Vote: Trump % 2016 Vote: Undecided 358 8% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 8

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