Working-Class Whites Poll Selected Findings

Transcription

1 Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll Selected Findings September 2016

2 Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll Conventional Wisdom September 2016

3 Exhibit 1.1 Working-Class Whites Are More Likely to Be Dissatisfied with Direction of Country than College-Educated Whites Percent who are very dissatisfied with the country s economic situation: Percent who think that in general, America s best days are behind us: Percent who think that when their children are the age they are now, their standard of living will be worse: Working-Class Whites 53% 47% 50% College-Educated Whites 37% 28% 35%

4 Exhibit 1.2 Majority of Working-Class Whites Feel the Federal Government Does Not Represent Their Views How well do you feel the government in Washington represents the views of people like yourself? Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Total U.S. adults 5% 20% 31% 43% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 2% 12% 28% 56% College-Educated Whites 3% 22% 34% 39% Working-Class Blacks 8% 27% 36% 27% Working-Class Hispanics 15% 18% 29% 34% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

5 Exhibit 1.3 Majority of Non-College Whites Blame the Federal Government for the Economic Problems Facing the Working Class AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: How much blame do you think each of the following deserves for the economic problems facing the working class? All of the blame Most of the blame Just some of the blame None of the blame The federal government 20% 42% 34% 2% Wall Street financial institutions 10% 23% 56% 6% Immigrants working in the U.S. illegally 13% 13% 52% 20% Employers 4% 9% 67% 18% Working-class people themselves 4% 50% 42% 1% 50% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

6 Exhibit 1.4 Two-Thirds of Working-Class Whites Feel Christian Values Under Attack; Almost Four in Ten See Increasing Diversity as Harmful AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Do you think that Christian values are under attack in America today, or not? Which comes closer to your view about the increasing racial and ethnic diversity in America? Don't know/ Refused 4% No, not under attack 31% Yes, under attack 65% It is helpful because it provides economic and social benefits to most Fell short of Americans expectation 50% s It is harmful because some people feel like they no longer belong Met 38% expectatio ns Don't know/ Refused 6% Neither (Vol.)/Both (Vol.) 6%

7 Exhibit 1.5 Working-Class Whites More Likely to See Immigrants as Burden, More Likely to Support Deportation of Illegal Immigrants Percent who agree that immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing, and health care: Percent who say the government should attempt to deport all people currently living in the country illegally: Total U.S. Adults 31% 39% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 47% 55% College-Educated Whites 20% 27% Working-Class Blacks 30% 36% Working-Class Hispanics 18% 18%

8 Exhibit 1.6 Working-Class Whites More Likely than Other Groups to Agree with Negative Stereotypes of Recent Muslim, Latin Immigrants Percent who agree that Working-Class Whites College-Educated Whites Working-Class Blacks Working-Class Hispanics recent immigrants from Muslim countries increase the risk of terrorist attacks in the U.S. 63% 42% 39% 50% recent immigrants from Latin American countries add to the crime problem 49% 32% 28% 22% recent immigrants from Latin American countries take jobs away from Americans 51% 27% 37% 21% NOTE: Question wording abbreviated. See topline for full question wording.

9 Exhibit 1.7 Majority of Working-Class White Voters Say They Would Consider Voting for Donald Trump AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS: Thinking about the upcoming presidential election, would you CONSIDER voting for Donald Trump, or would you DEFINITELY NOT vote for him? Consider voting for Trump Definitely not vote for Trump Total Registered Voters 41% 55% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 60% 37% College-Educated Whites 39% 57% Working-Class Blacks 3% 85% Working-Class Hispanics 18% 81% NOTE: Don t plan to vote (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

10 Exhibit 1.8 Two-Thirds of Working-Class White Voters Say They Would Definitely Not Vote for Hillary Clinton AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS: Thinking about the upcoming presidential election, would you CONSIDER voting for Hillary Clinton, or would you DEFINITELY NOT vote for her? Consider voting for Clinton Definitely not vote for Clinton Total Registered Voters 47% 49% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 29% 68% College-Educated Whites 51% 47% Working-Class Blacks 85% 5% Working-Class Hispanics 66% 33% NOTE: Don t plan to vote (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

11 Exhibit 1.9 Large Majority of Working-Class Whites Are Happy About How Things Are Going in Their Own Lives; Few Say They Are Angry AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Percent who say each of the following describes how they feel about how things are going in their own lives today: Happy 79% Optimistic 76% Worried 38% Angry 18%

12 Exhibit 1.10 Nearly Two-Thirds of Working-Class Whites Are Satisfied with Their Personal Financial Situation AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Overall, would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with your own personal financial situation? Very dissatisfied 17% Very satisfied 24% Somewhat dissatisfied 16% Don't know/refused 3% Somewhat satisfied 39%

13 Exhibit 1.11 Most Employed Working-Class Whites Feel Their Job Is Secure AMONG WHITES WHO ARE EMPLOYED FULL TIME OR PART-TIME: Do you feel your job is secure, that if you do good work you will be able to keep it as long as you want, or don t you feel this way? Job secure Job not secure Working-Class Whites 77% 22% College-Educated Whites 81% 19% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

14 Exhibit 1.12 Employment Good News and Bad News AMONG THOSE AGES 18-64: Percent who say that during the past 12 months, they or another family member living in their household have... received a raise or a promotion at a job: lost a job or had work hours reduced: Total U.S. Adults Ages % 32% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 42% 35% College-Educated Whites 54% 20% Working-Class Blacks 30% 45% Working-Class Hispanics 44% 40%

15 Exhibit 1.13 Working-Class Whites See Jobs and Income Gap as Top Economic Issues for Next President to Address AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Which of the following economic issues do you think is most important for the next president to address? Availability of good paying jobs 29% The income gap between the rich and poor 24% Taxes 14% Trade with other countries 12% Government regulation of businesses 9% All equally (Vol.) 7% NOTE: None of these (Vol.),Something else (Vol.), and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

16 Exhibit 1.14 Working-Class Whites and College-Grad Whites Report Similar Rates of Experiences with Addiction Percent who say that they themselves, or a close friend or family member, has ever been addicted to: Working-Class Whites College-Educated Whites Working-Class Blacks Working-Class Hispanics Alcohol 25% 22% 20% 23% Prescription Painkillers 16% 13% 6% 8% Illegal Drugs 18% 17% 15% 11% Any of the above 31% 32% 24% 26%

17 Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll Race Versus Class September 2016

18 Exhibit 2.1 Half of Working-Class Whites Think Their Lives Would Be No Different with a College Degree AMONG THOSE WITHOUT A FOUR-YEAR DEGREE: Do you think your life would be better, worse, or no different if you had a four-year college degree? Better No different Worse Working-Class Whites 45% 51% 3% Working-Class Blacks 73% 25% 2% Working-Class Hispanics 74% 25% 1% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

19 Exhibit 2.2 Among Working Class, Whites Less Likely than Blacks and Hispanics to Be Unemployed or Underemployed AMONG THOSE AGES 18-64: Percent who report that they are: Unemployed and currently seeking work Working part-time but would prefer full-time work Total U.S. adults % 8% NET un- and underemployed: 14% Working-Class Whites 6% 8% 14% College-Educated Whites 5% 3% 8% Working-Class Blacks 14% 17% 31% Working Class Hispanics 7% 15% 22%

20 Exhibit 2.3 Larger Share of Working-Class Whites Report Owning Their Home than Black and Hispanic Peers Do you own or rent your home? Own/Paying off mortgage Rent Total U.S. adults 60% 37% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 67% 30% College-Educated Whites 74% 24% Working-Class Blacks 32% 63% Working-Class Hispanics 36% 61% NOTE: Other (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

21 Exhibit 2.4 Working-Class Whites Less Likely to Express Optimism about Children s Future than Black, Hispanic Peers When your children are the age you are now, do you think their standard of living will be better, about the same, or worse than yours is now? Better About the same Worse Working-Class Whites 23% 21% 50% Working-Class Blacks 36% 16% 43% Working-Class Hispanics 48% 15% 31% NOTE: Don t have children/don t plan to have children (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

22 Exhibit 2.5 Working-Class Whites More Likely Than Blacks, Hispanics to See Immigrants as a Burden on the Country Which of the following comes closer to your view? Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents, OR immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care? Total U.S. Adults Burden 31% Strengthen 57% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 47% 40% College-Educated Whites 20% 67% Working-Class Blacks Working-Class Hispanics 30% 18% 57% 74% NOTE: Both (Vol.), Neither (Vol.), and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

23 Exhibit 2.6 Working-Class Whites More Likely than Black, Hispanic Peers to Say Trade Agreements Have Cost the U.S. Jobs Do you think that trade agreements between the United States and other countries have helped create more jobs in the U.S., have cost the U.S. jobs, or haven't they made much of a difference? Helped create more jobs in the U.S. Haven't made much of a difference Have cost the U.S. jobs Total U.S. Adults 11% 26% 58% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 5% 21% 69% College-Educated Whites 12% 18% 62% Working-Class Blacks 11% 45% 37% Working-Class Hispanics 18% 44% 37% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

24 Exhibit 2.7 Within Working Class, Party Identification Differs by Race Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or what? Democrat Independent Republican Other Working-Class Whites 22% 31% 34% 9% Working-Class Blacks 63% 27% 3% 5% Working-Class Hispanics 42% 28% 11% 11% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

25 Exhibit 2.8 Across Racial Lines, Majorities of Working-Class Adults Say Federal Government Does Not Do Enough for People like Them Next, we d like to ask you about how much help the federal government provides to some different groups. Do you think the government does too much, not enough, or about the right amount for people like you? Not enough About the right amount Too much Total U.S. Adults 48% 42% 7% By Key Subgroups: Working-Class Whites 53% 38% 7% College-Educated Whites 28% 60% 8% Working-Class Blacks 74% 21% 3% Working-Class Hispanics 61% 29% 10% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

26 Exhibit 2.9 Majorities of Working Class Say It Has Become Harder for People like Them to Get Ahead Financially, Find Good Jobs Percent who say that in the past few years, it has become harder for people like them to Working-Class Whites Working-Class Blacks Working-Class Hispanics have a secure retirement 69% 59% 60% find good jobs 67% 59% 56% get ahead financially 62% 58% 55% own their own home 54% 57% 55% afford health care 64% 39% 56% get a good education 48% 35% 39%

27 Exhibit 2.10 Across Racial Lines, Many Working-Class Adults Report Taking Measures to Make Ends Meet Percent who say that in the past 12 months, they or another family member living in their household have done each of the following to make ends meet: Working-Class Whites Working-Class Blacks Working-Class Hispanics Taken on an extra job or worked extra hours 50% 67% 50% Postponed medical or dental care 46% 50% 41% Unexpectedly taken money out of long-term savings 37% 44% 25% Borrowed money from friends or relatives 32% 56% 31% Increased credit card debt 31% 34% 30%

28 Exhibit 2.11 Across Racial Lines, Vast Majorities of Working Class Say They Feel Happy, Optimistic About Their Own Lives Percent who say each of the following describes how they feel about how things are going in their own lives today: Working-Class Whites Working-Class Blacks Working-Class Hispanics Happy 79% 81% 73% Optimistic 76% 70% 76% Worried 38% 36% 45% Angry 18% 24% 11%

29 Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll Not a Monolith September 2016

30 Exhibit 3.1 Working-Class Whites Responses on Whether U.S. s Best Days Are Ahead or Behind Vary By Party, Income, Region, Religion AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: In general, do you think America s best days are ahead of us or behind us? Ahead Behind Evangelical Christian 34% 34% 61% Republican 33% 33% 59% Rural 35% 35% 58% Income <$75,000 39% 39% 51% Independent 44% 44% 49% Total Working-Class Whites 44% 44% 47% Suburban 47% 47% 47% Urban 46% 46% 41% No religion 48% 48% 42% Income $75,000 or more 53% 53% 41% Democrat 61% 61% 25% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

31 Exhibit 3.2 Working-Class Whites Attitudes About Direction of Country Vary By Attitudes Toward Immigration, Work Experiences AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: In general, do you think America s best days are ahead of us or behind us? Those who believe that immigrants are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing, and health care Ahead 34% Behind 61% Those who believe that immigrants strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents 57% 33% Those who say they or a family member in their household has lost a job/had work hours reduced in the past year Those who say no one in their household has lost a job/had work hours reduced in past year 48% 32% 43% 57% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

32 Exhibit 3.3 Younger Working-Class Whites Less Likely to Be Pessimist about Their Children s Future Standard of Living AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: When your children are the age you are now, do you think their standard of living will be better, about the same, or worse than yours is now? Better About the same Worse Total Working-Class Whites 23% 21% 50% By Age: % 28% 35% % 16% 58% % 25% 50% % 20% 49% NOTE: Don t have children/don t plan to have children (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

33 Exhibit 3.4 Working-Class Whites with Lower Incomes More Likely to Say Federal Government Is Not Doing Enough for People like Them AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Next, we d like to ask you about how much help the federal government provides to some different groups. Do you think the government does too much, not enough, or about the right amount for people like you? Not enough About the right amount Too much Total Working-Class Whites 53% 38% 7% By Household Income: <$30,000 69% 26% 5% $30,000 to <$50,000 65% 34% 1% $50,000 to <$75,000 44% 44% 3% $75,000 or more 31% 49% 18% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

34 Exhibit 3.5 Working-Class Whites who Receive Government Benefits More Likely to Say Government Should Do More for People like Them AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Next, we d like to ask you about how much help the federal government provides to some different groups. Do you think the government does too much, not enough, or about the right amount for people like you? Not enough About the right amount Too much Those who report receiving at least one government benefit (food assistance, Medicaid, unemployment, disability, or help with utility/housing bills) 63% 32% 3% Those who report receiving none of these government benefits 47% 41% 9% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

35 Exhibit 3.6 Rural Working-Class Whites More Likely than Urban Peers to Report Negative Views of Federal Government AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: How well do you feel the government in Washington represents the views of people like yourself? Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Urban 3% 14% 30% 52% Suburban 2% 12% 29% 57% Rural 1% 9% 24% 64% AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: How much blame do you think the federal government deserves for the economic problems facing the working class? None of the blame Just some of the blame Most of the blame All of the blame Urban 2% 44% 33% 19% Suburban 3% 26% 46% 23% Rural 1% 26% 51% 20% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

36 Exhibit 3.7 Working-Class Whites Views on Cultural Changes Vary By Religious Affiliation AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Percent who say Christian values are under attack in America today: Percent who say increasing racial and ethnic diversity is mostly threatening American culture: Total Working-Class Whites 65% 33% By Religious Affiliation: Evangelical Christian 89% 48% Mainline Protestant 73% 39% Catholic 61% 28% No Religion 41% 19% NOTE: Question wording abbreviated. See topline for full question wording.

37 Exhibit 3.8 Younger Working-Class Whites Less Likely to See Increasing Diversity as Threatening American Culture AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Overall, do you think having an increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and nationalities in the US is mostly THREATENING or mostly ENRICHING American culture? Threatening Enriching Total Working-Class Whites 33% 60% By Age: % 73% % 67% % 56% % 51% NOTE: Not affecting American culture (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

38 Exhibit 3.9 Urban Working-Class Whites Less Likely to Believe Government Should Attempt to Deport All Illegal Immigrants AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Do you think the government should attempt to deport all people currently living in the country illegally or should the government not attempt to do that? Should Should not Total Working-Class Whites 55% 40% By Area of Residency: Urban 49% 47% Suburban 57% 40% Rural 61% 32% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

39 Exhibit 3.10 Southern Working-Class Whites More Likely to Report Being Negatively Affected by Undocumented Immigrants Taking Jobs AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Percent who say their family has been personally affected in a negative way by immigrants who are in the country illegally taking jobs in their community: Total Working-Class Whites 27% By Region: Northeast 19% West 18% Midwest 22% South 40%

40 Exhibit 3.11 Working-Class Whites with Lower Incomes More Likely to Report Feeling Worried about Their Own Lives AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Percent who say they feel worried about how things are going in their own lives today: Total Working-Class Whites 38% By Household Income: <$30,000 45% $30K,000 to <$50,000 42% $50,000 to <$75,000 37% $75,000 or more 30%

41 Exhibit 3.12 Southern Working-Class Whites More Likely to Report Not Having Health Insurance AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Percent who say they do not have health insurance at this time: Total Working-Class Whites 14% By Region: Northeast 5% West 6% Midwest 10% South 25%

42 Exhibit 3.13 Among Working-Class White Voters, Support for Donald Trump Varies by Attitudes on Diversity and Immigration AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITE REGISTERED VOTERS: Thinking about the upcoming presidential election, would you CONSIDER voting for Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate, or would you DEFINITELY NOT vote for him? Those who say increasing racial and ethnic diversity is mostly threatening American culture Those who say increasing racial and ethnic diversity is mostly enriching American culture Consider voting for Trump 84% 45% Definitely not vote for Trump 13% 52% Those who believe that immigrants are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing, and health care 78% 18% Those who believe that immigrants strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents 38% 62% NOTE: Don t plan to vote (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

43 Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll Politics and Partisanship September 2016

44 Exhibit 4.1 Working-Class Whites Less Likely than College-Educated Whites to Identify as Democrats, More Likely to Be Conservative Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or what? IF INDEPENDENT/OTHER/DK: Do you lean more towards the Democratic or Republican Party? Democrat Lean Democrat Non-lean independent Lean Republican Republican Working-Class Whites 22% 11% 11% 19% 34% College-Educated Whites 35% 12% 7% 14% 31% Would you say your views in most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative? Liberal Moderate Conservative Working-Class Whites 18% 34% 42% College-Educated Whites 28% 42% 30% NOTE: Don t know/refused responses not shown.

45 Exhibit 4.2 Among White Working Class, Republicans More Likely than Democrats to Be Dissatisfied, Pessimistic about Direction of Country AMONG WORKING-CLASS WHITES: Percent who say America s best days are behind us: they are very dissatisfied with the country s economic situation:... when their children are their age, they will have a worse standard of living: Democrats 25% 37% 33% Independent 49% 54% 46% Republicans 59% 62% 64% NOTE: Don t have children/don t plan to have children (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

46 Exhibit 4.3 Top Economic Concerns Vary by Party for Both Working-Class and College-Educated Whites Percent who say each of the following economic issues are the most important for the next president to address: Working-Class Whites Democrats College-Educated Whites Republicans Availability of good paying jobs 10% 33% 32% 32% The income gap between the rich and poor 40% 70% 8% 5% Taxes Trade with other countries Government regulation of businesses 10% 7% 6% 5% <1% 8% 21% 23% 13% 11% 12% 16% NOTE: None of these (Vol.), All equally (Vol.), Something else (Vol.), and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

47 Exhibit 4.4 Across Political Spectrum, White Working Class More Likely than White College Grads to See Immigrants as a Burden Which of the following comes closer to your view? Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents, OR immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care? Burden Strengthen Democrats 35% 56% Working- Class Whites Independents 46% 47% Republicans 62% 24% Democrats 6% 87% College- Educated Whites Independents 14% 72% Republicans 40% 42% NOTE: Both (Vol.), Neither (Vol.), and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

48 Exhibit 4.5 For Whites, Education Matters More than Party in Perception of Whether Government Does Enough for People like You Percent who say the federal government does not do enough to help people like them: Working-Class Whites College-Educated Whites Democrats 26% 55% Independents 25% 55% Republicans 30% 52%

49 Exhibit 4.6 Among White Democratic Voters, Working Class More Likely than College Grads to Say They d Consider Voting for Trump AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS: Thinking about the upcoming presidential election, would you CONSIDER voting for Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate, or would you DEFINITELY NOT vote for him? Consider voting for Trump Definitely not vote for Trump Democrats 22% 76% Working- Class Whites Independents 56% 41% Republicans 94% 6% Democrats 2% 97% College- Educated Whites Independents 33% 66% Republicans 86% 11% NOTE: Don t plan to vote (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

50 Exhibit 4.7 Almost a Quarter of Working-Class White Democrats Say They Would Definitely Not Vote for Hillary Clinton AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS: Thinking about the upcoming presidential election, would you CONSIDER voting for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party candidate, or would you DEFINITELY NOT vote for her? Consider voting for Clinton Definitely not vote for Clinton Democrats 76% 23% Working- Class Whites Independents 29% 68% Republicans 3% 96% Democrats 95% 3% College- Educated Whites Independents 53% 46% Republicans 5% 94% NOTE: Don t plan to vote (Vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown.

51 Exhibit 4.8 Among White Democrats, Working Class More Likely than College Grads to Think Christian Values Are Under Attack Percent who say they think that Christian values are under attack in America today: Working-Class Whites College-Educated Whites Democrats 13% 44% Independents 45% 62% Republicans 84% 87%

52 Exhibit 4.9 Among White Democrats, Working Class More Likely than College Grads to Attribute Negative Qualities to Recent Immigrants Percent who agree that recent immigrants from Muslim countries increase the risk of terrorist attacks in the U.S.: Working-Class Whites Percent who agree that recent immigrants from Latin American countries add to the crime problem: College-Educated Whites Percent who agree that recent immigrants from Latin American countries take jobs away from Americans: Democrats 47% 37% 39% 16% 14% 11% Independent 60% 49% 48% 44% 27% 24% Republicans 83% 73% 60% 56% 47% 63% NOTE: Question wording abbreviated. See topline for full question wording.