National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1961 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report October 30 - November 02, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction 83 42% Wrong Track 30 58% Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 246 3% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 79 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 79 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues % Health Care Issues % Senior s Issues 338 7% Women s Issues 88 4% Education Issues 09 6% Energy Issues 74 4% Other 03 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress 72 37% Republicans in Congress 84 43% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 76 39% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion 349 8% POL3_1 POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 52 8% Should not be done 96 5% Don t know/no opinion 220 % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority 62 32% An important, but lower priority 362 8% Not too important a priority 3 7 6% Should not be done 43 22% Don t know/no opinion 230 2% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 75 9% Should not be done 3 2 6% Don t know/no opinion 2 9 % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 224 % Should not be done 42 2% Don t know/no opinion 3 2 6% Page 3

4 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and financial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 334 7% Should not be done 92 5% Don t know/no opinion 306 6% POL3_8 POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 242 2% Should not be done 28 7% Don t know/no opinion 230 2% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 327 7% Not too important a priority 274 4% Should not be done 67 34% Don t know/no opinion 76 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 275 4% Should not be done 373 9% Don t know/no opinion 242 2% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget deficit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 4 7% Should not be done 38 2% Don t know/no opinion 2 3 % Page 4

5 POL3_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 249 3% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 80 9% POL4_1 POL5_1 POL5_4 POL5_5 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? President Trump announcing his intention to sign an executive order that would end birthright citizenship in the United States. A lot % Some % Not much 277 4% Nothing at all 278 4% Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Republicans Very motivated % Somewhat motivated % Not too motivated 42 7% Not motivated at all 7 6% Don t Know/No Opinion 294 5% Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Democrats Very motivated % Somewhat motivated % Not too motivated 40 7% Not motivated at all 54 8% Don t Know/No Opinion 280 4% Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Conservatives Very motivated % Somewhat motivated % Not too motivated 57 8% Not motivated at all 98 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 362 8% Page 5

6 POL5_6 Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Liberals Very motivated % Somewhat motivated 47 24% Not too motivated 7 9% Not motivated at all 45 7% Don t Know/No Opinion % POL5_7 POL5_8 POL5_9 POL5_10 Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Progressives Very motivated % Somewhat motivated % Not too motivated 208 % Not motivated at all 08 6% Don t Know/No Opinion % Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Donald Trump voters Very motivated % Somewhat motivated % Not too motivated 43 7% Not motivated at all 29 7% Don t Know/No Opinion 272 4% Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Hillary Clinton voters Very motivated 67 34% Somewhat motivated % Not too motivated 249 3% Not motivated at all 226 2% Don t Know/No Opinion % Based on what you know, how motivated are each of the following to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? You Very motivated % Somewhat motivated 339 7% Not too motivated 88 5% Not motivated at all 58 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 53 8% Page 6

7 POL6 How likely are you to turn out and vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Very likely 34 68% Somewhat likely 22 % Not too likely 83 4% Not likely at all 59 3% Already voted 70 9% Don t Know/No Opinion 87 4% POL7 POL8 POL9_1 POL9_4 POL9_5 How important do you think which party controls Congress, either Republicans or Democrats, is? Very important % Somewhat important 347 8% Not too important 05 5% Not important at all 4 2% Don t Know/No Opinion 76 9% How important do you think which party your governor, either Republican or Democrat, is? Very important 08 57% Somewhat important % Not too important 50 8% Not important at all 55 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 74 9% When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Donald Trump A lot % Some % Not much 8 9% Not at all % When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Nancy Pelosi A lot 264 3% Some % Not much % Not at all 84 43% When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Paul Ryan A lot 227 2% Some % Not much % Not at all % Page 7

8 POL9_6 When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Chuck Schumer A lot 203 0% Some % Not much % Not at all % POL9_7 POL9_8 POL9_9 POL9_10 When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Mitch McConnell A lot 290 5% Some % Not much % Not at all % When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Brett Kavanaugh A lot % Some % Not much 380 9% Not at all % When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Barack Obama A lot % Some 37 9% Not much 3 8 6% Not at all % When thinking about your vote in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, how much would you say you ve been thinking about each of the following? Hillary Clinton A lot 282 4% Some 339 7% Not much % Not at all % POL10_1 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Confident Very well % Somewhat well 57 29% Not too well 47 24% Not well at all 258 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 252 3% Page 8

9 POL10_4 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Worried Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well 333 7% Not well at all 296 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 259 3% POL10_5 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Excited Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well % Not well at all 320 6% Don t Know/No Opinion 249 3% POL10_6 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Indifferent Very well 55 8% Somewhat well 3 9 6% Not too well 38 9% Not well at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 355 8% POL10_7 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Angry Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well % Not well at all 39 20% Don t Know/No Opinion 3 7 6% POL10_8 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Depressed Very well 209 % Somewhat well % Not too well % Not well at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 34 7% Page 9

10 POL10_9 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Happy Very well 307 6% Somewhat well 46 23% Not too well 50 26% Not well at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 276 4% POL10_10 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Confused Very well 90 0% Somewhat well 360 8% Not too well % Not well at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 336 7% POL10_11 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Proud Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well % Not well at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 284 4% POL10_12 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Hopeful Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well 286 5% Not well at all 200 0% Don t Know/No Opinion 99 0% POL10_13 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Bored Very well 43 7% Somewhat well 259 3% Not too well % Not well at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 348 8% Page 10

11 POL10_14 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Helpless Very well 25 3% Somewhat well % Not too well 40 20% Not well at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 3 9 6% POL10_15 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Interested Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well 206 % Not well at all 00 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 98 0% POL10_16 How well do each of the following describe how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Frustrated Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well 339 7% Not well at all 3 6 6% Don t Know/No Opinion 283 4% POL11 Which of the following best describes how you feel about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Con dent 44 7% Worried 278 4% Excited 09 6% Indifferent 33 7% Angry 65 3% Depressed 25 % Happy 34 2% Confused 6 3% Proud 32 2% Hopeful 47 24% Bored 45 2% Helpless 49 2% Interested 2 7 % Frustrated 5 8% Don t Know/No Opinion 46 7% Page 11

12 POL12 Which of the following best describes how you will feel if Democrats take control of Congress in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Con dent 78 4% Worried 358 8% Excited 50 8% Indifferent 93 5% Angry 3 7% Depressed 87 4% Happy 73 9% Confused 24 % Proud 57 3% Hopeful 32 6% Bored 7 % Helpless 63 3% Interested 82 4% Frustrated 33 7% Don t Know/No Opinion 95 0% POL13 POL14 Which of the following best describes how you will feel if Republicans maintain control of Congress in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections? Con dent 36 7% Worried 300 5% Excited 06 5% Indifferent 05 5% Angry 42 7% Depressed 39 7% Happy 73 9% Confused 3 2% Proud 77 4% Hopeful 232 2% Bored 6 % Helpless 06 5% Interested 75 4% Frustrated 32 7% Don t Know/No Opinion 90 0% Do you think this years midterm elections are more important, less important, or about the same level of importance as midterm elections in the past? More important % Less important 54 3% About the same level of importance % Don t Know/No Opinion 60 8% Page 12

13 POL17 Based on what you know, which do you think is the more likely outcome of the 2018 midterm elections? Democrats will take control of the US House of % Representatives Republicans will keep control of the US House of 68 35% Representatives Don t Know/No Opinion % POL18 Based on what you know, which do you think is the more likely outcome of the 2018 midterm elections? Democrats will take control of the US Senate % Republicans will keep control of the US Senate % Don t Know/No Opinion % POL19 indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 As you may know, the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution automatically grants citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil, including the children of non-citizens and undocumented immigrants. Based on what you know, do you support or oppose this policy? Strongly support % Somewhat support 378 9% Somewhat oppose 285 5% Strongly oppose 308 6% Don t Know/No Opinion 292 5% Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable 46 23% Total Unfavorable 78 40% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 13

14 indpresapp_7 Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 8 4 % indpresapp_8 indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 378 9% Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 09 6% Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 263 3% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 272 4% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 67 34% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 324 7% Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 378 9% Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 14

15 indpresapp_16 Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_17 indpresapp_18 indpresapp_19 indpresapp_20 indpresapp_21 Favorability for: Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Kevin McCarthy Total Favorable 252 3% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Steny Hoyer Total Favorable 95 0% Total Unfavorable 290 5% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Stece Scalise Favorability for: Tim Ryan Total Favorable 363 8% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 76 60% Total Favorable 280 4% Total Unfavorable 375 9% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_22 Favorability for: Jim Jordan Total Favorable 232 2% Total Unfavorable 309 6% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 42 72% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 15

16 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters 96 00% xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 83 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 3 3 6% PID/Gender: Dem Women 374 9% PID/Gender: Ind Men 244 2% PID/Gender: Ind Women 270 4% PID/Gender: Rep Men 360 8% PID/Gender: Rep Women % xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 779 xeduc3 Educ: College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 264 3% Continued on next page Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #181064, October-November, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 90 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 26 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 380 9% Relig: Something Else 48 8% N 047 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 5 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 27 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 27 57% Relig: All Non-Christian 48 8% N 275 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 08 6% Employ: Self-Employed 74 9% Employ: Homemaker 49 8% Employ: Student 54 3% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 69 9% Employ: Other 73 9% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 354 8% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 17

18 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction 83 42% RD/WT: Wrong Track 30 58% Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 882 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 246 3% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 882 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care % #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 338 7% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 88 4% #1 Issue: Education 09 6% #1 Issue: Energy 74 4% #1 Issue: Other 03 5% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 95 0% 2016 Vote: Didnt Vote 333 7% N 955 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes 40 7 % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 77 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 350 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #181064, October-November, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 852 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 38 9% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 9 0% Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 852 POL2 Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion 349 8% POL6 Very likely 34 68% Somewhat likely 22 % Not too likely 83 4% Not likely at all 59 3% Already voted 70 9% Don t Know/No Opinion 87 4% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 19

20 Morning Consult Page 20