National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1990 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report June 28-29, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 93 60% Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve 43 22% Somewhat Disapprove 267 3% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 64 3% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 64 3% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues % Health Care Issues 332 7% Senior s Issues 309 6% Women s Issues 0 6% Education Issues 35 7% Energy Issues 66 3% Other 05 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 39 20% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 86 43% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 383 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 52 26% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress 84 42% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate 85 43% Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL3_1 POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority 52 26% Not too important a priority 42 7% Should not be done 06 5% Don t know/no opinion 46 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority 334 7% Not too important a priority 336 7% Should not be done 43 22% Don t know/no opinion 80 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 200 0% Should not be done 276 4% Don t know/no opinion 72 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority 72 36% An important, but lower priority 76 38% Not too important a priority 200 0% Should not be done 39 2% Don t know/no opinion 268 3% Page 3

4 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 92 5% Don t know/no opinion 266 3% POL3_8 POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 95 0% Should not be done 04 5% Don t know/no opinion 79 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 3 9 6% Not too important a priority 253 3% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 26 6% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 250 3% Should not be done 307 5% Don t know/no opinion 66 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 56 8% Should not be done 27 % Don t know/no opinion 60 8% Page 4

5 POL3_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional regulations on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 223 % Should not be done 383 9% Don t know/no opinion 5 8% POL4_1 POL5 POL6 POL7 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Justice Anthony Kennedy retiring from the Supreme Court A lot 60 30% Some % Not much 338 7% Nothing at all % As you may know, Supreme Court nominees have historically required 60 votes in the Senate to be con rmed. When Justice Neil Gorsuch was con rmed, the Senate changed procedure so Supreme Court nominees only need 51 votes to be con rmed. Knowing this, which of the following comes closer to your view, even if neither are exactly right? Supreme Court nominees should require 60 votes to be % con rmed Supreme Court nominees should require 51 votes to be % con rmed Don t Know/No Opinion % As you may know, Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the Supreme Court, which means that President Donald Trump will nominate a new justice to ll his seat. Based on what you know, if President Trumps nominee to ll Justice Anthony Kennedys seat is con rmed to the Supreme Court, do you think... It would make the Supreme Court more conservative 0 56% It would make the Supreme Court more liberal 45 7% It would not change the balance of liberals and 258 3% conservatives on the Supreme Court Don t Know/No Opinion % Do you think that the Senate should vote on con rming President Trumps Supreme Court nominee before the midterm election in November, or should the Senate wait until after new Senators have taken office in January following the midterm election? Vote on con rming before the midterm election in % November Wait to vote on con rming until after new Senators % have taken office in January Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 5

6 POL8_1 When thinking about your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate, how important is the following issue? How the candidate will vote when it comes to con rming nominees to the Supreme Court Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 88 9% Not important at all 53 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 228 % POL9 POL10_1 POL10_4 POL10_5 POL10_6 When it comes to voting for nominations to the Supreme Court, do you think Senators should vote based primarily on... Whether the nominee is quali ed to be appointed to the % Supreme Court Where Senators think the nominee stands on political % and social issues that might come before the Supreme Court Don t Know/No Opinion 289 5% Do you hope that the next Justice appointed to the Supreme Court supports or opposes each of the following? Abortion rights Hope they support % Hope they oppose 58 29% Don t Know/No Opinion 37 9% Do you hope that the next Justice appointed to the Supreme Court supports or opposes each of the following? Gay marriage Hope they support % Hope they oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion % Do you hope that the next Justice appointed to the Supreme Court supports or opposes each of the following? Death penalty Hope they support % Hope they oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 52 26% Do you hope that the next Justice appointed to the Supreme Court supports or opposes each of the following? Affirmative action Hope they support % Hope they oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 6

7 POL10_7 Do you hope that the next Justice appointed to the Supreme Court supports or opposes each of the following? Protecting Dreamers (young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents) from deportation Hope they support 36 57% Hope they oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 38 9% POL11_1 POL11_4 POL11_5 POL11_6 considered American? Be born in the United States or one of its territories Very necessary % Somewhat necessary % Not too necessary 367 8% Not necessary at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 97 5% considered American? Be a U.S. citizen Very necessary % Somewhat necessary 3 0 6% Not too necessary 8 6% Not necessary at all 70 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 70 4% considered American? Speak English Very necessary % Somewhat necessary % Not too necessary 229 2% Not necessary at all 55 8% Don t Know/No Opinion 75 4% considered American? Vote in elections Very necessary % Somewhat necessary % Not too necessary 95 0% Not necessary at all 8 6% Don t Know/No Opinion 95 5% Page 7

8 POL11_7 considered American? Serve in the military Very necessary 306 5% Somewhat necessary 388 9% Not too necessary % Not necessary at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 9 6% POL11_8 POL11_9 POL11_10 POL11_11 considered American? Abide by the law Very necessary % Somewhat necessary 220 % Not too necessary 47 2% Not necessary at all 40 2% Don t Know/No Opinion 80 4% considered American? Support the Constitution Very necessary % Somewhat necessary 28 4% Not too necessary 58 3% Not necessary at all 39 2% Don t Know/No Opinion 85 4% considered American? Pay taxes Very necessary % Somewhat necessary 285 4% Not too necessary 83 4% Not necessary at all 59 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 7 4% considered American? Work hard Very necessary % Somewhat necessary % Not too necessary 25 6% Not necessary at all 96 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 95 5% Page 8

9 POL11_12 considered American? Help the vulnerable Very necessary % Somewhat necessary 64 32% Not too necessary 242 2% Not necessary at all 6 8% Don t Know/No Opinion 5 8% POL11_13 POL12_1 POL12_4 POL12_5 considered American? Support equal opportunity for all Very necessary % Somewhat necessary 380 9% Not too necessary 98 5% Not necessary at all 54 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 90 5% If someone performs each of the following actions, would you say that it is possible or not possible to consider them to be? Refuse to serve in a way they oppose Yes, someone can perform this action and still be % No, someone cannot perform this action and still be % Don t Know/No Opinion 47 24% If someone performs each of the following actions, would you say that it is possible or not possible to consider them to be? Disobey a law that they believe is wrong Yes, someone can perform this action and still be % No, someone cannot perform this action and still be % Don t Know/No Opinion 348 7% If someone performs each of the following actions, would you say that it is possible or not possible to consider them to be? Criticize elected leaders Yes, someone can perform this action and still be % No, someone cannot perform this action and still be 330 7% Don t Know/No Opinion 2 7 % Page 9

10 POL12_6 If someone performs each of the following actions, would you say that it is possible or not possible to consider them to be? Refuse to pay taxes Yes, someone can perform this action and still be % No, someone cannot perform this action and still be % Don t Know/No Opinion 260 3% POL12_7 POL12_8 indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 If someone performs each of the following actions, would you say that it is possible or not possible to consider them to be? Burn an American ag to protest a policy they believe is wrong Yes, someone can perform this action and still be % No, someone cannot perform this action and still be % Don t Know/No Opinion 226 % If someone performs each of the following actions, would you say that it is possible or not possible to consider them to be? Kneel in protest during the national anthem Yes, someone can perform this action and still be 79 40% No, someone cannot perform this action and still be % Don t Know/No Opinion 23 2% Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable 378 9% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 47 24% Page 10

11 indpresapp_7 Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_8 indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 350 8% Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable 85 43% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 94 5% Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 244 2% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 244 2% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 333 7% Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 353 8% Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 11

12 indpresapp_16 indpresapp_17 Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable 382 9% Total Unfavorable 96 48% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 12

13 National Tracking Poll #180647, June, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male 93 47% Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 865 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 292 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 339 7% PID/Gender: Ind Women 335 7% PID/Gender: Rep Men 30 5% PID/Gender: Rep Women 295 5% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) 43 22% Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 792 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree 47 24% Educ: Post-grad 268 3% Continued on next page Page 13

14 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 93 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 28 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 386 9% Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 296 5% N 765 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 60 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 57 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 57 58% Relig: All Non-Christian 83 42% N 988 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 27 6% Employ: Self-Employed 49 7% Employ: Homemaker 67 8% Employ: Student 93 5% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 72 9% Employ: Other 50 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 374 9% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 14

15 National Tracking Poll #180647, June, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 93 60% Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 926 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve 43 22% Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 267 3% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 926 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care 332 7% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 309 6% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 0 6% #1 Issue: Education 35 7% #1 Issue: Energy 66 3% #1 Issue: Other 05 5% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 73 9% N 6 6 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 85 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 988 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 355 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Continued on next page Page 15

16 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump 85 43% Unfavorable of Trump % N 896 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 374 9% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 22 % Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 896 Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #180647, June, 2018 Page 17