National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1997 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report March 26-27, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve 44 22% Somewhat Disapprove 297 5% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 9 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 9 5% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues % Health Care Issues 306 5% Senior s Issues 3 8 6% Women s Issues 77 4% Education Issues 44 7% Energy Issues 70 3% Other 97 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 389 9% Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 380 9% POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 374 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress 83 42% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL3_1 POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority 26 56% An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 46 7% Should not be done 6% Dont know/no opinion 39 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority 35 8% Not too important a priority 372 9% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 55 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 202 0% Should not be done 240 2% Dont know/no opinion 53 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 2 0 % Should not be done 49 2% Dont know/no opinion 2 6 % Page 3

4 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 35 8% Should not be done 90 4% Dont know/no opinion 2 0 % POL3_8 POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 268 3% Should not be done 9 6% Dont know/no opinion 66 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority 44 22% An important, but lower priority 330 7% Not too important a priority 330 7% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 22 6% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority 57 29% Not too important a priority 30 5% Should not be done 308 5% Dont know/no opinion 44 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 3 7% Should not be done 36 2% Dont know/no opinion 48 7% Page 4

5 POL3_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional regulations on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 2 8 % Should not be done 350 8% Dont know/no opinion 32 7% POL4_1 POL4_4 POL4_5 POL5_1 POL5_4 How important are each of the following for an elected official to embody in their personal life in order for them to carry out their official duties? Morality Very important % Somewhat important 372 9% Not too important 59 3% Not important at all 20 % Dont Know/No Opinion 46 2% How important are each of the following for an elected official to embody in their personal life in order for them to carry out their official duties? Honesty Very important % Somewhat important 25 6% Not too important 8 % Not important at all 5 0% Dont Know/No Opinion 26 % How important are each of the following for an elected official to embody in their personal life in order for them to carry out their official duties? Faithfulness to their partner Very important 7 59% Somewhat important % Not too important 73 9% Not important at all 8 4% Dont Know/No Opinion 76 4% Please indicate whether each of the following statements apply to President Trump. He is moral Yes % No % Dont Know/No Opinion 380 9% Please indicate whether each of the following statements apply to President Trump. He is honest Yes % No % Dont Know/No Opinion 293 5% Page 5

6 POL5_5 Please indicate whether each of the following statements apply to President Trump. He is faithful to his partner Yes 350 8% No % Dont Know/No Opinion % POL6 POL7 POL8 POL9_1 POL9_4 Which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither are exactly right? An elected official who commits an immoral act in their % personal life can still behave ethically and ful ll their duties in their public and professional lives. An elected official who commits an immoral act in their % personal life cannot still behave ethically and ful ll their duties in their public and professional lives. Dont Know/No Opinion 340 7% Would you say that extramarital affairs are morally acceptable or morally wrong? Morally acceptable 07 5% Morally wrong % Dont Know/No Opinion 302 5% Generally speaking, would you say that it is common or not common for a President of the United States to have had an extramarital affair? Very common 309 5% Somewhat common % Not too common % Not common at all 290 5% Dont Know/No Opinion 229 % As you may know, the following individuals have been accused of sexual misconduct by at least one person. Generally, do you nd sexual misconduct allegations against each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Donald Trump Credible % Not credible % Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, the following individuals have been accused of sexual misconduct by at least one person. Generally, do you nd sexual misconduct allegations against each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Bill Clinton Credible % Not credible 28 4% Dont Know/No Opinion 2 9 % Page 6

7 POL10_1 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? An interview that adult lm star Stormy Daniels gave with 60 Minutes regarding her alleged affair with Donald Trump A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all 366 8% POL10_4 POL10_5 POL11 POL12 POL13_1 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The adult lm star Stormy Daniels receiving a payment of $130,000 from President Trumps attorney before the 2016 election A lot % Some % Not much 336 7% Nothing at all 323 6% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Ex-Playboy model Karen McDougals claim that she had a ten-month affair with Donald Trump in 2006 and 2007 A lot 359 8% Some % Not much % Nothing at all % Did you watch the 60 Minutes interview with Stormy Daniels? Yes, I watched it % No, I did not watch it % And did the 60 Minutes interview give you a more or less favorable view of Stormy Daniels, or did it not make much difference either way? (N=452) Much more favorable 90 20% Somewhat more favorable 7 26% Somewhat less favorable 33 7% Much less favorable 5 % Not much difference either way 5 33% Dont Know/No Opinion 0 2% How well do each of the following describe Stormy Daniels? Honest Very well 2 9 % Somewhat well % Not too well 254 3% Not well at all 327 6% Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 7

8 POL13_4 How well do each of the following describe Stormy Daniels? Opportunistic Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well 82 9% Not well at all 44 7% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL14a POL14b POL15 Do you believe that President Trump and adult lm star Stormy Daniels had a sexual affair before he became president? (N=1,042) Yes % No 96 9% Dont Know/No Opinion % Do you believe Stormy Daniels allegation that she had a sexual affair with President Trump before he become president? (N=955) Yes % No 48 6% Dont Know/No Opinion 32 34% As you may know, Stormy Daniels reportedly signed a nondisclosure agreement to not discuss a sexual affair she had with President Trump. Knowing this, do you think Trump should sue Daniels for breaking this agreement and speaking publicly about the alleged affair? Yes % No % Dont Know/No Opinion % POL16 As you may know, the adult lm star Stormy Daniels received a payment of $130,000 from Trumps lawyer in October of Daniels claims to have had a sexual affair with President Trump in 2006 and 2007, and some have speculated that this money, in addition to a nondisclosure agreement, were intended to ensure that Daniels did not speak out about the affair during the 2016 campaign. Now, Stormy Daniels has led a lawsuit alleging that President Trump was directly involved in this payment. This payment was not reported as a campaign expenditure, which some argue constitutes a violation of campaign nance law. Knowing this, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? The Federal Election Commission and the Department % of Justice should investigate this matter The Federal Election Commission and the Department % of Justice should not investigate this matter Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 8

9 POL17 Based on what you know, do you believe that the payment that Stormy Daniels received from Trumps lawyer in October of 2016 was an illegal violation of campaign nance law, or not? Yes, the payment was an illegal violation of campaign % nance law No, the payment was legal and did not violate campaign % nance law Dont Know/No Opinion % POL18 POL19 POL20 POL21 Below is a statement that Stormy Daniels has made. Please indicate whether you nd this statement credible or not credible. Stormy Daniels claims that in 2011, after attempting to sell the story of her affair with Trump to In Touch Magazine, she was threatened by a man who approached her in a Las Vegas parking lot. According to Daniels, the man suggested there would be retribution if Daniels publicized the story. Credible % Not credible % Dont Know/No Opinion % Does the Stormy Daniels matter give you a more favorable or unfavorable view of President Trump, or does it not make much difference either way? Much more favorable 94 5% Somewhat more favorable 72 4% Somewhat less favorable 207 0% Much less favorable % Not much difference either way % Dont Know/No Opinion 232 2% Do you believe that President Trump should make a formal statement to either con rm or deny his alleged relationship with Stormy Daniels, or not? Yes, President Trump should make a formal statement % No, President Trump should not make a formal % statement Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, the rst step toward removing a president from office is impeachment. Do you believe Congress should or should not begin impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office? Yes, Congress should begin impeachment proceedings % No, Congress should not begin impeachment 95 48% proceedings Dont Know/No Opinion 259 3% Page 9

10 POL22 And, if you had to pick one, which of the following is the main reason you believe Congress should begin impeachment proceedings? (N=787) President Trump committed an impeachable offense, % such as treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. President Trump has proven he is un t to serve and % should be removed from office, regardless of whether he committed an impeachable offense or not. Dont Know/No Opinion 8 2% POL23 indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 indpresapp_7 How likely is it that the Stormy Daniels matter will lead to impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office? Very likely 03 5% Somewhat likely 206 0% Not too likely 62 3 % Not likely at all % Dont Know/No Opinion 300 5% Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable 366 8% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 10

11 indpresapp_8 Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 333 7% indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 indpresapp_16 Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 04 52% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 04 5% Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 249 2% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 232 2% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 388 9% Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable 328 6% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable 46 23% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 11

12 indpresapp_17 indpresapp_18 Favorability for: Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Stormy Daniels Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 12

13 National Tracking Poll #180332, March, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male 93 47% Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 280 4% PID/Gender: Dem Women 385 9% PID/Gender: Ind Men 3 7 6% PID/Gender: Ind Women 359 8% PID/Gender: Rep Men 333 7% PID/Gender: Rep Women 32 6% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 796 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 24 2% xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k 63 32% Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 79 9% Continued on next page Page 13

14 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 4 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 382 9% Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 364 8% N 746 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 47 2% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 25 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 25 56% Relig: All Non-Christian % N 995 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector 59 30% Employ: Government 30 7% Employ: Self-Employed 66 8% Employ: Homemaker 42 7% Employ: Student 78 4% Employ: Retired 50 25% Employ: Unemployed 95 0% Employ: Other 94 0% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 364 8% Military HH: No % xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track % Continued on next page Page 14

15 National Tracking Poll #180332, March, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Q172 Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve 44 22% Somewhat Disapprove 297 5% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 9 5% xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care 306 5% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 3 8 6% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 77 4% #1 Issue: Education 44 7% #1 Issue: Energy 70 3% #1 Issue: Other 97 5% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 89 9% N 6 5 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 6 6% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 992 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 365 8% 4-Region: Midwest 47 24% 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % POLdem1 Watched Interview: Yes % Watched Interview: No % POLdem2 White evangelicals % POLdem3 Suburban women 50 25% POLdem4 Suburban democrats 289 4% POLdem5 Suburban independents 3 3 6% POLdem6 Suburban republicans 334 7% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 15

16 Morning Consult Page 16