National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1993 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report February 01-02, 2019 P1 Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve 352 8% Somewhat Disapprove 232 2% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 75 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove 09 56% Don t Know / No Opinion 75 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues like taxes, wages, jobs, % unemployment, and spending Security Issues like terrorism, foreign policy, and % border security Health Care Issues like the 2010 health care law, 306 5% Medicaid, other challenges Seniors Issues like Medicare and Social Security 270 4% Women s Issues like birth control, abortion, and equal 05 5% pay Education Issues like school standards, class sizes, 04 5% school choice, and student loans Energy Issues like carbon emissions, cost of 93 5% electricity/gasoline, or renewables Other: 0 6% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_2 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 4 2 % POL1_3 POL1_4 POL1_5 POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 65 33% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 382 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 5 26% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 42 2 % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 79 40% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2_1 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 40 7% Should not be done 79 4% Don t know / No opinion 56 8% POL2_2 POL2_3 POL2_4 POL2_5 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to address climate change A top priority % An important, but lower priority 48 24% Not too important a priority 352 8% Should not be done 290 5% Don t know / No opinion 76 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reduce economic inequality A top priority 6 3 % An important, but lower priority 58 29% Not too important a priority 330 7% Should not be done 257 3% Don t know / No opinion 2 4 % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 234 2% Should not be done 55 3% Don t know / No opinion 257 3% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Beginning impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office A top priority % An important, but lower priority 229 % Not too important a priority 98 0% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 95 0% Page 3

4 POL2_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 23 2% Should not be done 92 5% Don t know / No opinion 99 0% POL2_7 POL2_8 POL2_9 POL2_10 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 249 2% Not too important a priority 205 0% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 37 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 276 4% Should not be done 305 5% Don t know / No opinion 8 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 72 9% Should not be done 36 2% Don t know / No opinion 64 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority 42 2 % Not too important a priority 236 2% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 48 7% Page 4

5 POL2_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Regulation of tech companies A top priority 330 7% An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 55 28% Should not be done 47 7% Don t know / No opinion 25 3% POL3 POL4 From the list of potential candidates below, who would you vote for if the Democratic primary for the 2020 presidential election were held today? John Kerry 6 % Joe Biden 372 9% Bernie Sanders 256 3% Elizabeth Warren 73 4% Beto O Rourke 62 3% Cory Booker 5 3% Kamala Harris 3 7% Sherrod Brown 25 % Amy Klobuchar 24 % Kirsten Gillibrand 0 0% Eric Holder 6 0% John Delaney 2 0% Julian Castro 8 0% Jay Inslee 0% Eric Garcetti 3 0% Steve Bullock 0 % Michael Bloomberg 47 2% John Hickenlooper 2 % Terry McAuliffe 0% Tulsi Gabbard 7 % Pete Buttigieg 5 0% Gavin Newsom 6 0% Other 26 6% Don t know / No opinion % If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you de nitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or de nitely vote for someone else? De nitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump % Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump 98 0% Probably vote for someone else 8 6% De nitely vote for someone else % Would not vote 20 % Don t know / No opinion 04 5% Page 5

6 POL5_1 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The tax reform bill, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law by President Trump that went into effect in 2018 A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all 369 9% POL5_2 POL5_3 POL6 POL7_1 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The tax plan recently proposed by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) that would increase taxes on Americans with a net worth of $50 million or more. A lot 29 5% Some % Not much % Nothing at all % How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The tax plan recently proposed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) that would implement a 70 percent marginal tax rate on the highest earners. A lot 365 8% Some % Not much % Nothing at all 54 27% As you may know, President Trump s second State of the Union address will be broadcast on February 5, How likely are you to watch President Trump s State of the Union? Very likely % Somewhat likely % Not too likely 275 4% Not at all likely % Don t know / No opinion 08 5% the Union address? Improving the economy and creating jobs Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 02 5% Not at all important 77 4% Don t know / No opinion 37 7% Page 6

7 POL7_2 the Union address? Fighting terrorism Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 82 9% Not at all important 0 5% Don t know / No opinion 4 7% POL7_3 POL7_4 POL7_5 POL7_6 the Union address? Providing direction and leadership Very important 64 58% Somewhat important % Not too important 23 6% Not at all important 88 4% Don t know / No opinion 69 8% the Union address? Reducing poverty in the U.S. Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 53 8% Not at all important 87 4% Don t know / No opinion 36 7% the Union address? Improving the health care system Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 0 5% Not at all important 77 4% Don t know / No opinion 36 7% the Union address? Improving the education system Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 200 0% Not at all important 9 5% Don t know / No opinion 42 7% Page 7

8 POL7_7 the Union address? Reducing gun violence Very important 93 47% Somewhat important % Not too important 2 6 % Not at all important 72 9% Don t know / No opinion 64 8% POL7_8 POL7_9 POL7_10 POL7_11 the Union address? Improving race relations Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 26 3% Not at all important 66 8% Don t know / No opinion 63 8% the Union address? Combating climate change Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 324 6% Not at all important 3 5 6% Don t know / No opinion 58 8% the Union address? Reducing global poverty Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important % Not at all important 344 7% Don t know / No opinion 78 9% the Union address? Reducing illegal immigration Very important % Somewhat important % Not too important 266 3% Not at all important 234 2% Don t know / No opinion 54 8% Page 8

9 POL7_12 the Union address? Improving the immigration system Very important % Somewhat important 53 27% Not too important 60 8% Not at all important 20 6% Don t know / No opinion 54 8% POL7_13 POL8_2 POL8_3 POL8_4 the Union address? Building a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border Very important % Somewhat important 263 3% Not too important 204 0% Not at all important % Don t know / No opinion 26 6% Trump... Is a strong leader Strongly agree % Somewhat agree 283 4% Somewhat disagree 87 9% Strongly disagree 87 44% Don t know / No opinion 07 5% Trump... Is trustworthy Strongly agree 368 8% Somewhat agree 346 7% Somewhat disagree 204 0% Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 20 6% Trump... Is knowledgeable Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree 2 9 % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 6% Page 9

10 POL8_5 Trump... Is too liberal Strongly agree 89 4% Somewhat agree 25 6% Somewhat disagree 3 5 6% Strongly disagree 45 57% Don t know / No opinion 3 9 6% POL8_6 POL8_7 POL8_8 POL8_9 Trump... Is too conservative Strongly agree 364 8% Somewhat agree 292 5% Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 335 7% Trump... Is sexist Strongly agree 85 43% Somewhat agree 259 3% Somewhat disagree 226 % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 70 9% Trump... Is racist Strongly agree % Somewhat agree 250 3% Somewhat disagree 95 0% Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 67 8% Trump... Keeps his promises Strongly agree % Somewhat agree 387 9% Somewhat disagree 2 6 % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 59 8% Page 10

11 POL8_10 Trump... Is reckless Strongly agree % Somewhat agree 384 9% Somewhat disagree 2 3 % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 2 6% POL8_11 POL8_12 POL8_13 POL8_14 Trump... Is honest Strongly agree 365 8% Somewhat agree 353 8% Somewhat disagree 2 7 % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 23 6% Trump... Cares about people like me Strongly agree % Somewhat agree 290 5% Somewhat disagree 64 8% Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 42 7% Trump... Is thin-skinned Strongly agree 70 35% Somewhat agree 324 6% Somewhat disagree 224 % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 262 3% Trump... Is compassionate Strongly agree 332 7% Somewhat agree 349 8% Somewhat disagree 255 3% Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 3 7% Page 11

12 POL8_15 Trump... Is stable Strongly agree % Somewhat agree 329 6% Somewhat disagree 239 2% Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion 29 6% POL9 POL10 POL11 In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? The parties do an adequate job % A third party is needed % Don t know / No opinion % Thinking about the 2020 presidential election, how likely are you to consider voting for a third-party candidate? Very likely 238 2% Somewhat likely % Not too likely 376 9% Not likely at all % Don t know / No opinion 385 9% As you may know, President Trump signed a sweeping tax reform bill in 2017 that went into effect in Based on what you know about the bill, do you think that it has helped or hurt the nation s economy, or has not made much of a difference either way? Helped the economy % Hurt the economy % Has not made a difference 368 8% Don t know / No opinion % POL12 Have you and your family seen more money in your paycheck as a result of the 2017 tax reform law? Yes % No 04 55% Don t know / No opinion 36 8% POL13_1 Please indicate if you think the following groups are paying too much, paying too little, or paying about the right amount of taxes: Low income people Pay too much 40 57% Pay too little 85 9% Pay about the right amount % Don t know / No opinion 278 4% Page 12

13 POL13_2 Please indicate if you think the following groups are paying too much, paying too little, or paying about the right amount of taxes: Middle income people Pay too much 50 58% Pay too little 6% Pay about the right amount % Don t know / No opinion 230 2% POL13_3 POL13_4 POL13_5 POL13_6 POL14_1 POL14_2 Please indicate if you think the following groups are paying too much, paying too little, or paying about the right amount of taxes: Upper income people Pay too much 82 9% Pay too little 25 63% Pay about the right amount 326 6% Don t know / No opinion 234 2% Please indicate if you think the following groups are paying too much, paying too little, or paying about the right amount of taxes: Corporations Pay too much 54 8% Pay too little % Pay about the right amount 27 4% Don t know / No opinion 26 3% Please indicate if you think the following groups are paying too much, paying too little, or paying about the right amount of taxes: Small businesses Pay too much % Pay too little 9 6% Pay about the right amount % Don t know / No opinion 3 7 6% Please indicate if you think the following groups are paying too much, paying too little, or paying about the right amount of taxes: Me / my family Pay too much % Pay too little 53 3% Pay about the right amount % Don t know / No opinion 2 6 % Do you think the tax system in the United States Is fair to business Yes % No % Don t know / No opinion % Do you think the tax system in the United States Favors the wealthy Yes % No 287 4% Don t know / No opinion 253 3% Page 13

14 POL14_3 Do you think the tax system in the United States Has too many loopholes Yes % No 69 8% Don t know / No opinion 287 4% POL14_4 POL15_1 POL15_2 POL16 POL17 Do you think the tax system in the United States Is too complex Yes % No 272 4% Don t know / No opinion 29 5% Please state whether you agree or disagree with the following statements The wealthiest Americans should pay higher taxes Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree 9 0% Strongly disagree 55 8% Don t know / No opinion 29 6% Please state whether you agree or disagree with the following statements Corporations should pay higher taxes Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree 2 9 % Strongly disagree 6 6% Don t know / No opinion 63 8% Do you favor or oppose a recent proposal to levy a new, 2 percent annual tax on all assets owned by households with a net worth of $50 million or more, and an additional 1 percent tax on households with a net worth of more than $1 billion? Strongly favor % Somewhat favor % Somewhat oppose 72 9% Strongly oppose 224 % Don t know / No opinion 379 9% Do you favor or oppose a recent proposal to increase the marginal tax rate on income over $10 million a year to 70 percent? Strongly favor % Somewhat favor 360 8% Somewhat oppose 274 4% Strongly oppose 368 8% Don t know / No opinion % Page 14

15 POLx_1 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 365 8% Never Heard Of 274 4% POLx_2 Favorability for Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 89 9% Never Heard Of 2 6% POLx_3 Favorability for Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 382 9% Never Heard Of 320 6% POLx_4 POLx_5 Favorability for Mike Pence Favorability for Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 88 9% Never Heard Of 99 5% Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 2 56% Heard Of, No Opinion 67 3% Never Heard Of 20 % POLx_6 Favorability for Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 56 8% Never Heard Of 75 4% Page 15

16 POLx_7 Favorability for Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 95 48% Heard Of, No Opinion 55 8% Never Heard Of 6 3% POLx_8 Favorability for Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 377 9% Never Heard Of 253 3% POLx_9 Favorability for Kevin McCarthy Total Favorable 268 3% Total Unfavorable 42 2 % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_10 POLx_11 Favorability for Joe Biden Favorability for Bernie Sanders Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 97 0% Never Heard Of 67 3% Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 90 0% Never Heard Of 43 2% POLx_12 Favorability for Elizabeth Warren Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 75 38% Heard Of, No Opinion 328 6% Never Heard Of 266 3% POLx_13 Favorability for Beto O Rourke Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 360 8% Never Heard Of % Page 16

17 POLx_14 Favorability for Kamala Harris Total Favorable 59 30% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 284 4% Never Heard Of 50 25% POLx_15 Favorability for Sherrod Brown Total Favorable 3 2 6% Total Unfavorable 327 6% Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_16 Favorability for Amy Klobuchar Total Favorable 329 7% Total Unfavorable 305 5% Heard Of, No Opinion 42 2 % Never Heard Of % POLx_17 Favorability for Cory Booker Total Favorable 54 27% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 354 8% Never Heard Of % POLx_18 Favorability for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 30 5% Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 17

18 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 877 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 309 6% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 303 5% PID/Gender: Ind Women 320 6% PID/Gender: Rep Men 320 6% PID/Gender: Rep Women 3 2 6% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 842 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree 47 24% Educ: Post-grad 268 3% Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #190202, February, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 93 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 28 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 350 8% Relig: Something Else 64 8% N 076 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 58 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics 352 8% N 076 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian 86 9% N 262 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 7 6% Employ: Self-Employed 77 9% Employ: Homemaker 45 7% Employ: Student 7 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 66 8% Employ: Other 29 6% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 373 9% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 19

20 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track % Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove 09 56% N 9 8 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve 352 8% Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 232 2% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 9 8 Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump 2 56% N 907 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 33 7% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 82 9% Very Unfavorable of Trump 93 47% N 907 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care 306 5% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 270 4% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 05 5% #1 Issue: Education 04 5% #1 Issue: Energy 93 5% #1 Issue: Other 0 6% xsubvote18o 2018 House Vote: Democrat % 2018 House Vote: Republican % 2018 House Vote: Someone else 92 5% 2018 House Vote: Didnt Vote 325 6% N 986 xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 8 9% 2016 Vote: Didnt Vote 378 9% N 984 Continued on next page Page 20

21 National Tracking Poll #190202, February, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 87 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 99 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 356 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 21

22 Morning Consult Page 22