National Tracking Poll

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1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1990 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report May 17-19, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 60 58% Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 286 4% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 79 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove 03 52% Don t Know / No Opinion 79 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues 377 9% Health Care Issues 334 7% Senior s Issues 325 6% Women s Issues 82 4% Education Issues 45 7% Energy Issues 7 4% Other 89 4% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 384 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress 97 49% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress 82 4 % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 48 24% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress 74 37% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL3_1 POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 7 9% Should not be done 20 6% Don t know/no opinion 57 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority 66 33% An important, but lower priority 37 9% Not too important a priority 304 5% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 86 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 75 9% Should not be done 286 4% Don t know/no opinion 85 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 90 0% Should not be done 47 2% Don t know/no opinion 270 4% Page 3

4 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority 76 38% Not too important a priority 3 9 6% Should not be done 90 5% Don t know/no opinion 257 3% POL3_8 POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 244 2% Should not be done 7 6% Don t know/no opinion 95 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 352 8% Not too important a priority 300 5% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 5 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 280 4% Should not be done 320 6% Don t know/no opinion 76 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 4 7% Should not be done 28 % Don t know/no opinion 66 8% Page 4

5 POL3_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional regulations on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 242 2% Should not be done 369 9% Don t know/no opinion 52 8% POL4_1 POL5 POL6 POL7 POL8 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Senate Democrats forcing a oor vote on the resolution to restore net neutrality rules that were repealed by the FCC last year A lot 256 3% Some % Not much % Nothing at all % If the election for President was held today, which of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Donald Trump 72 36% Don t Know/No Opinion % If the election for President was held today, which of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate that is not Donald Trump % Don t Know/No Opinion % Do you believe that President Trump should be challenged in the Republican primary election for President in 2020, or not? Yes, I believe that President Trump should be challenged 89 60% in the Republican primary election for President. No, I do not believe that President Trump should be % challenged in the Republican primary election for President. Don t Know/No Opinion 28 4% If you had to choose, who would you rather see as President of the United States? Donald Trump % Mike Pence % Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 5

6 POL9_1 Based on what you know, how good of a job are each of the following doing when it comes to reducing the federal budget de cit? President Trump Excellent 3 4 6% Good 347 7% Fair 29 5% Poor % Don t Know/No Opinion 8 9% POL9_4 POL9_5 POL10 POL11 Based on what you know, how good of a job are each of the following doing when it comes to reducing the federal budget de cit? Democrats in Congress Excellent 32 7% Good 297 5% Fair % Poor % Don t Know/No Opinion 28 4% Based on what you know, how good of a job are each of the following doing when it comes to reducing the federal budget de cit? Republicans in Congress Excellent 47 7% Good 3 0 6% Fair % Poor % Don t Know/No Opinion 248 2% Thinking about our national debt over the next few years, do you think President Trump and Congress will make the problem better or worse? Much better 228 % Somewhat better % Somewhat worse 3 0 6% Much worse 58 29% Wont change either way 2 9 % Don t Know/No Opinion 80 9% As you may know, the Trump administration recently announced that people caught illegally entering the United States from Mexico will be referred for U.S. criminal prosecution. Based on what you know, do you support or oppose this policy? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 370 9% Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 94 0% Page 6

7 POL12_1 Based on what you know, how likely are each of the following to happen as a result of this policy? More parents will be separated from their children at the U.S. Mexico border Very likely % Somewhat likely % Not too likely 282 4% Not likely at all 94 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 282 4% POL12_4 POL13 POL14 POL15_1 Based on what you know, how likely are each of the following to happen as a result of this policy? Fewer people will attempt crossing the Mexico border into the United States Very likely % Somewhat likely % Not too likely % Not likely at all 269 4% Don t Know/No Opinion 9 0% As you may know, the Trump administration has said that when people caught crossing illegally into the United States from Mexico are referred for criminal prosecution, any children accompanying them will be separated from them, as would happen for a U.S. citizen who is arrested and jailed. Knowing this, do you support or oppose this policy? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 323 6% Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 236 2% How much con dence do you have in President Trump to handle threats posed by North Korea? A lot % Some % Not much 309 6% No con dence at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 5 8% For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? North Korea Ally 48 2% Friendly, but not an ally 6 6% Unfriendly % Enemy 02 5 % Don t Know / No Opinion 26 3% Page 7

8 POL15_4 For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? Iran Ally 42 2% Friendly, but not an ally 45 7% Unfriendly % Enemy % Don t Know / No Opinion 299 5% POL15_5 POL15_6 POL15_7 POL15_8 For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? Russia Ally 90 5% Friendly, but not an ally % Unfriendly % Enemy % Don t Know / No Opinion 280 4% For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? France Ally % Friendly, but not an ally % Unfriendly 87 4% Enemy 6 % Don t Know / No Opinion 28 4% For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? Germany Ally % Friendly, but not an ally % Unfriendly 47 7% Enemy 43 2% Don t Know / No Opinion 329 7% For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? United Kingdom Ally % Friendly, but not an ally 344 7% Unfriendly 60 3% Enemy 7 % Don t Know / No Opinion 276 4% Page 8

9 POL15_9 For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? Canada Ally % Friendly, but not an ally 383 9% Unfriendly 50 3% Enemy 3 % Don t Know / No Opinion 235 2% POL15_10 POL15_11 POL16_1 POL16_4 For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? Mexico Ally 349 8% Friendly, but not an ally % Unfriendly % Enemy 06 5% Don t Know / No Opinion 292 5% For each of the following countries, do you feel that country is a close ally of the United States, is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly, but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the United States? Israel Ally % Friendly, but not an ally % Unfriendly 98 0% Enemy 5 6% Don t Know / No Opinion 356 8% Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? North Korea Too close 204 0% About right % Not close enough % Don t Know/No Opinion % Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? Iran Too close 70 9% About right % Not close enough % Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 9

10 POL16_5 Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? Russia Too close % About right % Not close enough % Don t Know/No Opinion % POL16_6 POL16_7 POL16_8 POL16_9 POL16_10 Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? France Too close 70 4% About right 50 58% Not close enough % Don t Know/No Opinion 365 8% Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? Germany Too close 58 3% About right 00 50% Not close enough 50 25% Don t Know/No Opinion % Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? United Kingdom Too close 87 4% About right 4 57% Not close enough % Don t Know/No Opinion 357 8% Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? Canada Too close 8 4% About right 67 59% Not close enough % Don t Know/No Opinion 3 8 6% Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? Mexico Too close 2 6% About right % Not close enough 8 4 % Don t Know/No Opinion 388 9% Page 10

11 POL16_11 Do you feel the United States relationship with each of the following countries is too close, not close enough, or about right? Israel Too close 373 9% About right % Not close enough 379 9% Don t Know/No Opinion % POL17_1 POL17_4 POL17_5 POL17_6 POL17_7 Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? North Korea Gotten better % Gotten worse % Stayed about the same 380 9% Don t Know / No Opinion 354 8% Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? Iran Gotten better 7 6% Gotten worse % Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? Russia Gotten better 28 4% Gotten worse % Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion 379 9% Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? France Gotten better 338 7% Gotten worse % Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion 374 9% Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? Germany Gotten better 237 2% Gotten worse % Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 11

12 POL17_8 Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? United Kingdom Gotten better 337 7% Gotten worse % Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion 374 9% POL17_9 POL17_10 POL17_11 POL18_1 Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? Canada Gotten better 286 4% Gotten worse % Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion 364 8% Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? Mexico Gotten better 24 6% Gotten worse 04 55% Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion 329 7% Do you think U.S. relations with each of the following countries have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same since President Trump took office? Israel Gotten better % Gotten worse 364 8% Stayed about the same % Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Continue diplomatic efforts to get North Korea to suspend its nuclear weapons program Strongly support 50 58% Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 83 4% Strongly oppose 48 2% Don t Know/No Opinion 280 4% Page 12

13 POL18_4 Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Adding North Korea to a list of countries that are designated as state sponsors of terrorism Strongly support % Somewhat support 62 3 % Somewhat oppose 248 2% Strongly oppose 35 7% Don t Know/No Opinion % POL18_5 POL18_6 POL18_7 POL18_8 Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Additional sanctions against the government and government leaders Strongly support % Somewhat support 62 3 % Somewhat oppose 68 8% Strongly oppose 96 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 39 20% Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Sanctions against countries that trade with North Korea Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 243 2% Strongly oppose 6 6% Don t Know/No Opinion 386 9% Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Air strikes against military targets and suspected nuclear sites in North Korea Strongly support 3 7 6% Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 363 8% Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 379 9% Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Send in U.S. ground troops to take control of the country Strongly support 56 8% Somewhat support 256 3% Somewhat oppose 385 9% Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 32 6% Page 13

14 POL19 Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? President Trump should only meet with North Korean % leader Kim Jong-un if North Korea makes concessions on their nuclear weapons program beforehand President Trump should meet with North Korean % leader Kim Jong-un regardless of whether North Korea makes concessions on their nuclear weapons program beforehand Don t Know/No Opinion % POL20 POL21 POL22 indpresapp_4 As you may know, net neutrality is a set of rules adopted by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) which say Internet Service Providers (ISPs) such as Comcast, Time Warner, AT&T, and Verizon cannot block, throttle, or prioritize certain content on the internet. Knowing this, do you support or oppose net neutrality? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 80 9% Strongly oppose 57 8% Don t Know/No Opinion % As you may know, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently repealed net neutrality rules. Based on what you know, do you believe repealing net neutrality was the right thing to do, or the wrong thing to do? Right thing 373 9% Wrong thing % Don t Know/No Opinion % When deciding which candidate to vote for in the November midterm elections, how important is their support for the net neutrality rules adopted by the FCC in 2015? Very important 42 2 % Somewhat important % Not too important 3 6% Not important at all 3 7% Don t Know/No Opinion % Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Total Favorable 366 8% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 14

15 indpresapp_5 Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_6 indpresapp_7 indpresapp_8 indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 343 7% Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 86 4% Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 257 3% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 255 3% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 362 8% Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable 8 4 % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 355 8% Page 15

16 indpresapp_14 Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_15 indpresapp_16 Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable 367 8% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_17 Favorability for: Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #180533, May, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male 93 47% Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 865 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) 67 34% PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 287 4% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 350 8% PID/Gender: Ind Women 322 6% PID/Gender: Rep Men 295 5% PID/Gender: Rep Women 325 6% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 8 5 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree 47 24% Educ: Post-grad 268 3% Continued on next page Page 17

18 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 93 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 28 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 267 3% N 756 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 49 2% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics 63 32% N 94 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 94 60% Relig: All Non-Christian % N 989 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 2 6% Employ: Self-Employed 65 8% Employ: Homemaker 77 9% Employ: Student 7 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 42 7% Employ: Other 64 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 387 9% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #180533, May, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 60 58% Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove 03 52% N 9 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 286 4% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 9 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 377 9% #1 Issue: Health Care 334 7% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 325 6% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 82 4% #1 Issue: Education 45 7% #1 Issue: Energy 7 4% #1 Issue: Other 89 4% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 78 9% N 645 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes 4 7 % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 73 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 987 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 355 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Continued on next page Page 19

20 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 904 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 2 6 % Very Unfavorable of Trump 8 4 % N 904 Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 20

21 National Tracking Poll #180533, May, 2018 Page 21

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