National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1992 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report April 19-21, 2019 P1 Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % Q172 Q172NET P3 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove % Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 90 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 90 5% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues like taxes, wages, jobs, % unemployment, and spending Security Issues like terrorism, foreign policy, and % border security Health Care Issues like the 2010 health care law, % Medicaid, other challenges Seniors Issues like Medicare and Social Security % Women s Issues like birth control, abortion, and equal 105 5% pay Education Issues like school standards, class sizes, 146 7% school choice, and student loans Energy Issues like carbon emissions, cost of 116 6% electricity/gasoline, or renewables Other: 90 5% Page 1

2 POL1 How likely is it that you will vote in the 2020 presidential primary or caucus in your state? Absolutely certain to vote % Very likely % About % Not too likely 48 2% Not likely at all 71 4% POL2 POL3 POL4 POL5 Now, thinking about the 2020 presidential primary or caucus in your state, would you vote in the Democratic primary or caucus, the Republican primary or caucus, or are you not likely to vote in a primary or caucus at all? (N=1,873) Vote in Democratic primary or caucus % Vote in Republican primary or caucus % Not likely to vote in primary or caucus 107 6% Don t know / No opinion % Do you think the Republican party should nominate Donald Trump as the party s candidate for president in 2020, or do you think the Republican party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? (N=641) Strongly support Trump s nomination % Somewhat support Trump s nomination % Somewhat support a different candidate s nomination 59 9% Strongly support a different candidate s nomination 56 9% Don t know / No opinion 22 4% If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? (N=641) President Trump % Bill Weld 45 7% Don t know / No opinion 94 15% If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or definitely vote for someone else? Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump % Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump % Probably vote for someone else 153 8% Definitely vote for someone else % Would not vote 38 2% Don t know / No opinion 161 8% Page 2

3 POL6 If the 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote? Donald Trump % Joe Biden % Would not vote 102 5% Don t know / No opinion % POL7 POL8_1 POL8_2 POL8_3 POL8_4 POL8_5 POL8_6 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Would not vote 50 3% Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Page 3

4 POL8_7 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % POL8_8 POL8_9 POL8_10 POL8_11 POL9_1 POL9_2 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Protecting Medicare and Social Security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t know / No opinion % Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 144 7% Should not be done 79 4% Don t know / No opinion 189 9% Passing a bill to address climate change A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 179 9% Page 4

5 POL9_3 Passing a bill to reduce economic inequality A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % POL9_4 POL9_5 POL9_6 POL9_7 Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 40 2% Don t know / No opinion % Beginning impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 180 9% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 75 4% Don t know / No opinion % Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 155 8% Page 5

6 POL9_8 Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % POL9_9 POL9_10 POL9_11 POL10 Reducing the federal budget deficit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 153 8% Should not be done 41 2% Don t know / No opinion % Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 174 9% Regulation of tech companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 151 8% Don t know / No opinion % How much have you seen, read, or heard about the release of a redacted version of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election? A lot % Some % Not Much % Nothing at all % Page 6

7 POL11_1 Thinking about Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interreference in the 2016 election, did you do any of the following? Followed news coverage of the report (N=1,689) Yes % No % Don t know / No opinion 119 7% POL11_2 POL12 POL13 POL14 Thinking about Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interreference in the 2016 election, did you do any of the following? Read any of the redacted version of the report (N=1,689) Yes % No % Don t know / No opinion 128 8% Do you think the Department of Justice s investigation into Russia s influence on the 2016 presidential election was handled fairly or unfairly? Very fairly % Somewhat fairly % Not too fairly % Not fairly at all % Don t know / No opinion % Do you think President Trump s campaign worked with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election? Yes, I think President Trump s campaign worked with % Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. No, I don t think President Trump s campaign worked % with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Don t know / No opinion % And do you think President Trump tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia? Yes, I think President Trump tried to impede or % obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. No, I don t think President Trump tried to impede or % obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. Don t know / No opinion % Page 7

8 POL15 To what extent do you think Attorney General William Barr accurately described the contents of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report before a redacted version was released to the public? Very accurately % Somewhat accurately % Not too accurately % Not accurately at all % Don t know / No opinion % POL16 POL17 POL18 POL19 How likely do you think it is that Russia has compromising information on President Trump? Very likely % Somewhat likely % Not very likely % Not likely at all % Don t know / No opinion % When it comes to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, whose version of the facts are you most likely to accept? Donald Trump s version % Robert Mueller s version % Don t know / No opinion % Based on what you know, did Special Counsel Robert Mueller find any evidence that President Donald Trump or his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election? Yes, Mueller found evidence that President Trump or % his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election. No, Mueller did not find evidence that President Trump % or his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion % Based on what you know, did Special Counsel Robert Mueller find any evidence that President Donald Trump tried to impede or obstruct the probe into Russian interreference in the 2016 election? Yes, Mueller found evidence that President Trump tried % to impede or obstruct the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. No, Mueller did not find evidence that President Trump % tried to impede or obstruct the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion % Page 8

9 POL20 Which of the following comes closest to your understanding of the results of Robert Mueller s Special Counsel Investigation, even if none is exactly right? Mueller found that President Trump obstructed the % investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election Mueller found that President Trump did not obstruct % the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mueller did not make a determination on whether % President Trump obstructed the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion % POL21 POL22_1 POL22_2 Based on what you know, do you approve of the way Attorney General William Barr has handled the release of information from Special Counsel Robert Mueller s report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, or do you disapprove? Strongly approve % Somewhat approve % Somewhat disapprove % Strongly disapprove % Don t know / No opinion % Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Attorney General William Barr s primary goal in releasing information from the Mueller report has been to inform the American people of the special counsel s findings. Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion % Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Attorney General William Barr s primary goal in releasing information from the Mueller report has been to limit scrutiny of President Trump s actions. Strongly agree % Somewhat agree % Somewhat disagree % Strongly disagree % Don t know / No opinion % Page 9

10 POL23 Knowing what you know now about the Mueller investigation, do you have a more or less favorable view of Donald Trump? Much more favorable % Somewhat more favorable % Somewhat less favorable % Much less favorable % Don t know / No opinion % POL24 POL25 POL26 Knowing what you know now about the Mueller investigation, did your opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s investigation into Russian influence get better, get worse, or did it not change at all? My opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s % investigation into Russian influence got better. My opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s % investigation into Russian influence got worse. My opinion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s % investigation into Russian influence did not change at all. Don t know / No opinion % To what extent do you support or oppose a federal investigation into the Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert Mueller s Russia investigation? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose % Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion % Would you say the conclusions from Special Counsel Robert Mueller s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election will impact whether or not you will vote for President Trump in the 2020 presidential election? Yes, I am more likely to vote for President Trump in % 2020 Yes, I am less likely to vote for President Trump in % No, the conclusions from the investigation will not % impact whether or not I vote for President Trump in 2020 Don t know / No opinion % Page 10

11 POL27_1 Forcing President Trump to release his tax returns A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % POL27_2 POL27_3 POL27_4 POL27_5 Investigating President Trump s business interests and arrangements to determine whether they are conflicting with his duties as president A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Investigating the firing of former FBI Director James Comey A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Investigating Cabinet secretary spending, including on travel and office furnishings A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Investigating the process leading to Trump s executive order on a travel ban affecting predominantly Muslim nations A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Page 11

12 POL27_6 Investigating the Trump administration s Puerto Rico hurricane response A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % POL27_7 POL27_8 POL27_9 POL27_10 Investigating President Trump s family separation policy regarding migrants and the handling of unaccompanied minors A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Investigating the process for how Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump obtained security clearances A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Investigating President Trump s phone security, including whether Chinese and Russian spies are listening to his phone calls A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Investigating President Trump s alleged affairs and payments to silence women A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Page 12

13 POL27_11 Investigating some of President Trump s campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 election A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % POL28 POL29 POL30 Which of the following is closest to your opinion, even if neither is exactly right? Congress should continue to investigate whether the % Trump campaign obstructed the investigation into Russian influence in the 2016 election. Congress should not continue to investigate whether % the Trump campaign obstructed the investigation into Russian influence in the 2016 election. Don t know / No opinion % As you may know, the first step toward removing a president from office is impeachment. Do you believe Congress should or should not begin impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office? Yes, Congress should begin impeachment proceedings % No, Congress should not begin impeachment % proceedings Don t know / No opinion % And, if you had to pick one, which of the following is the main reason you believe Congress should begin impeachment proceedings? (N=678) President Trump committed an impeachable offense, % such as treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. President Trump has proven he is unfit to serve and % should be removed from office, regardless of whether he committed an impeachable offense or not. Don t know / No opinion 8 1% Page 13

14 POLx_1 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_2 Favorability for Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 161 8% POLx_3 Favorability for Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_4 POLx_5 Favorability for Mike Pence Favorability for Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 129 6% Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 85 4% Never Heard Of 21 1% POLx_6 Favorability for Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 187 9% Never Heard Of 93 5% Page 14

15 POLx_7 Favorability for Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 177 9% Never Heard Of 93 5% POLx_8 Favorability for Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_9 Favorability for Kevin McCarthy Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_10 POLx_34 Favorability for Joe Biden Favorability for Michael Cohen Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 81 4% Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_40 Favorability for Wiliam Barr Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 15

16 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 1866 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men % PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men % PID/Gender: Ind Women % PID/Gender: Rep Men % PID/Gender: Rep Women % xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 1778 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad % Continued on next page Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #190452, April, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic % demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 128 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else % N 1761 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 50 3% xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian % xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 121 6% Employ: Self-Employed 149 7% Employ: Homemaker 120 6% Employ: Student 122 6% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 187 9% Employ: Other 151 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes % Military HH: No % xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track % Continued on next page Page 17

18 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 1902 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove % Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 1902 Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 1885 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 173 9% Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 1885 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care % #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security % #1 Issue: Women s Issues 105 5% #1 Issue: Education 146 7% #1 Issue: Energy 116 6% #1 Issue: Other 90 5% xsubvote18o 2018 House Vote: Democrat % 2018 House Vote: Republican % 2018 House Vote: Someone else 95 5% 2018 House Vote: Didnt Vote % N 1988 xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 182 9% 2016 Vote: Didnt Vote % N 1989 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #190452, April, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 85 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 1990 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast % 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % xdempidlean Strong Republican % Not Very Strong Republican % Strong Democrat % Not Very Strong Democrat % N 1343 xdemevang Evangelical % Non-Evangelical % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 19

20 Morning Consult Page 20