GenForward March 2019 Toplines

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "GenForward March 2019 Toplines"

Edwina Henderson
5 years ago
Views:

1 Toplines The first of its kind bi-monthly survey of racially and ethnically diverse young adults GenForward is a survey associated with the University of Chicago Interviews: 02/08-02/25/2019 Total N: 2,134 adults Age Range: NOTE: All results indicate percentages unless otherwise labeled.

2 MARGIN OF ERROR ESTIMATES (% pts) Group Estimate Full Sample +/- 3.5 African +/ Asian +/ Latinxs +/ Whites +/ NOTE: All estimates are calculated at the 95% level of confidence 2

3 Q0. Did you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, someone else, or not vote in the 2016 presidential election? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Someone else Did not vote in the 2016 presidential election SKIP/REFUSED * 1 * 1 * Q1. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 * 1 1 Q2. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Nancy Pelosi is handling her job as Speaker of the House? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED

4 Q3. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Strongly approve 5 * Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove SKIP/REFUSED Q4. For both parties, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that party. If you don t know enough about the party to have an opinion, you can say that too. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Q4A. The Republican Party Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 * 1 1 Q4B. The Democratic Party Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 * 1 1 4

5 Q5. Do you think the Democratic Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes No DON T KNOW * - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 * 1 1 Q6. Do you think the Republican Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes No DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED Q7. Would you say things in this country are Off on the wrong track Generally headed in the right direction Not sure SKIP/REFUSED * 1 * 1 1 Q8. How would you describe the nation s economy these days? Would you say Very good Somewhat good Neither good nor poor Somewhat poor Very poor Not sure SKIP/REFUSED * 1 * 1 * 5

6 Q9. Generally speaking, how optimistic are you about your personal future think about things like finding and keeping a good job, paying off your student loan debt, and being able to afford the lifestyle you want? Very optimistic Somewhat optimistic Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Somewhat pessimistic Very pessimistic SKIP/REFUSED Q10. Did you vote in the congressional midterm elections in 2018? Yes No DON T KNOW 1 - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 2 * 1 1 If Yes to Q10 Q10A. In the congressional elections in 2018, did you vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate? African Asian Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Neither Not sure * SKIP/REFUSED N=

7 If Yes to Q10 Q10B. Which of the following best describes you? African Asian It was my first time ever voting in any election I ve voted before, but not in a congressional midterm election I ve voted in a congressional midterm election before SKIP/REFUSED * - * * * N=

8 Q11. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? Please select which one of these is the most important. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Abortion 1 * National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social Security 2 * Taxes Women s rights 1 * 1 * 1 Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality 5 * 1 * 1 Sexual Harassment 1 * * * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 * 1 1 Q12. Thinking about the 2020 Republican nomination, would you like to see other Republican candidates challenge Donald Trump for the party s nomination for president in 2020? Yes No DON T KNOW - - * * * SKIP/REFUSED

9 Q13. Below is a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries to be the party s presidential nominee. Which one candidate do you support or do you support someone else? African Asian Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former Secretary of State John Kerry Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder 1 1 * 1 1 New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand * Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 1 1 * 2 1 South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg 1 - * * * Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro Someone else DON T KNOW * * 2 - * SKIP/REFUSED

10 Q13A. Below is a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries to be the party s presidential nominee. Which one candidate do you support or do you support someone else? Strong Democrats Not so strong Democrats Close to Democrats (leaners) Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former Secretary of State John Kerry Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 1 1 * South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg * 1 * Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro Someone else DON T KNOW * * * SKIP/REFUSED * 1 * N=

11 Q13B. Below is a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries to be the party s presidential nominee. Which one candidate do you support or do you support someone else? Democrats Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former Secretary of State John Kerry Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro African Asian * * * * * * * Someone else DON T KNOW * * * - * SKIP/REFUSED * 2 1 * 1 N=

12 Independents Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former Secretary of State John Kerry Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro African Asian * * * Someone else DON T KNOW * SKIP/REFUSED N=

13 Republicans Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former Secretary of State John Kerry Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro African Asian * * * * * Someone else DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED N=

14 Q14. When thinking about presidential candidates, how important do you think it is for the [Democrats/Republicans] to nominate a younger candidate as their presidential nominee? Democrats Very important Somewhat important A little important Not important at all DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 - * * 1 N= Republicans Very important Somewhat important A little important Not important at all DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED N= Q15. When thinking about presidential candidates, how important do you think it is for the [Democrats/Republicans] to nominate a woman as their presidential nominee? Democrats Very important Somewhat important A little important Not important at all SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 * 1 1 N=

15 Republicans Very important Somewhat important A little important Not important at all SKIP/REFUSED * * N= Q16. When thinking about presidential candidates, how important do you think it is for the [Democrats/Republicans] to nominate a person of color as their presidential nominee? Democrats Very important Somewhat important A little important Not important at all SKIP/REFUSED 1 - * * 1 N= Republicans Very important Somewhat important A little important Not important at all SKIP/REFUSED 2 2 * 1 1 N=

16 Q17. Would you support or oppose imposing a 2% tax on the assets of those with a net worth over $50 million and a 3% tax on the assets of those with a net worth over $1 billion? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose DON T KNOW * - 1 * * SKIP/REFUSED Q18. Do you oppose or support Congressional Democrats withholding the funding President Trump requested for a border wall? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose SKIP/REFUSED N= Do you oppose or support Congressional Democrats withholding the funding President Trump requested for a border wall even if it leads to another government shutdown at the end of this month? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose SKIP/REFUSED 1 * N=

17 Q19. Presidents can declare a state of national emergency, giving them special powers to take action without approval from Congress. Do you support or oppose Donald Trump using emergency powers to build a wall along the US-Mexico border? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose SKIP/REFUSED

18 DEMOGRAPHICS PID1. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? Democrat Republican Independent Something Else DON'T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED If independent, something else, or DK/REF in PID1 PIDI. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Closer to the Republican Party Closer to the Democratic Party Neither SKIP/REFUSED N= If Democrat in PID1 PIDA. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat SKIP/REFUSED * N= If Republican in PID1 PIDB. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? Strong Republican Not very strong Republican SKIP/REFUSED

19 N= PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Closer to the Democratic Party Independent/None Don t lean Republican (NET) Closer to the Republican Party Not very strong Republican Strong Republican N= AGE GENDER Male Female RACE/ETHNICITY 1 All adults African American 15 Asian American 7 Latinx 21 White 55 Other 1 N= All of the African American, Asian American, White, and Other respondents do not identify as Latinx. 19

20 MARITAL STATUS Married Widowed * - * * * Divorced Separated * 1 Never married Living with partner EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed Not employed EDUCATION African Asian 20 Less than a high school diploma High school graduate or equivalent Some college College graduate or above INCOME Under $10, $10,000 to under $20, $20,000 to under $30, $30,000 to under $40, $40,000 to under $50,

21 $50,000 to under $75, $75,000 to under $100, $100,000 to under $150, $150,000 or more RELIGION Protestant Roman Catholic Mormon 1 * * 2 1 Orthodox Jewish 1 - * 2 1 Muslim Buddhist * 11 * 1 2 Hindu - 13 * - 1 Atheist Agnostic Nothing in particular Just Christian Unitarian 1 * * * * Something else SKIP/REFUSED N=

22 BORN AGAIN CHRISTIAN If Christian Yes No SKIP/REFUSED N= RELIGIOUS ATTENDANCE African Asian Never Less than once a year About once or twice a year Several times a year About once a month times a month Nearly every week Every week Several times a week SKIP/REFUSED N= UNWEIGHTED DEMOGRAPHICS UNWEIGHTED PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Closer to the Democratic Party Independent/None Don t lean Republican (NET) Closer to the Republican Party Not very strong Republican Strong Republican N= UNWEIGHTED AGE 22

23 UNWEIGHTED GENDER African Asian Male Female UNWEIGHTED RACE/ETHNICITY All adults African American 26 Asian American 12 Latinx 24 White 36 Other 3 N= 2134 UNWEIGHTED MARITAL STATUS Married Widowed * - * * * Divorced Separated Never married Living with partner UNWEIGHTED EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed Not employed

24 UNWEIGHTED EDUCATION African Asian Less than a high school diploma High school graduate or equivalent Some college College graduate or above UNWEIGHTED INCOME Under $10, $10,000 to under $20, $20,000 to under $30, $30,000 to under $40, $40,000 to under $50, $50,000 to under $75, $75,000 to under $100, $100,000 to under $150, $150,000 or more UNWEIGHTED RELIGION Protestant Roman Catholic Mormon 1 * * 3 1 Orthodox 1 * Jewish * - * 3 1 Muslim Buddhist * 11 * 1 2 Hindu - 14 * - 2 Atheist Agnostic Nothing in particular Just Christian Unitarian 1 1 * * 1 Something else N=

25 UNWEIGHTED BORN AGAIN CHRISTIAN If Christian Yes No N= UNWEIGHTED RELIGIOUS ATTENDANCE Never Less than once a year About once or twice a year Several times a year About once a month times a month Nearly every week Every week Several times a week N= STUDY METHODOLOGY The GenForward March survey is a project of Professor Cathy J. Cohen at the University of Chicago. Interviews were conducted with a representative sample from GenForward SM, a nationally representative survey panel of adults ages recruited and administered by NORC at the University of Chicago and funded by grants to the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Ford Foundation. A total of 2,134 interviews were conducted between February 8 and February 25, 2019 with adults ages representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including completed interviews with 547 African American young adults, 251 Asian American young adults, 515 Latinx young adults, 763 white young adults, and 58 young adults with other racial and ethnic backgrounds. The survey was offered in English and Spanish and via telephone and web modes. The GenForward survey was built from two sample sources: Seventy-two percent of the completed interviews are sourced from NORC s AmeriSpeak Panel. AmeriSpeak is a probability based panel that also uses address-based sample but sourced from the NORC National Frame with enhanced sample coverage. During the initial recruitment phase of the 25

26 AmeriSpeak panel, randomly selected U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection and then contacted by U.S. mail, , telephone, and field interviewers (face-to-face). Twenty-eight percent of the completed interviews are sourced from the Black Youth Project (BYP) panel of young adults recruited by NORC. The BYP sample is from a probability-based household panel that uses an address-based sample from a registered voter database of the entire U.S. Households were selected using stratified random sampling to support over-sampling of households with African, Latinxs, and Asian ages NORC contacted sampled households by U.S. mail and by telephone, inviting them to register and participate in public opinion surveys twice a month. Panelists on both the BYP and AmeriSpeak panels are invited to register for the panel via the web or by telephone to participate in public opinion surveys. Of the 2,134 completed interviews in the GenForward March survey, 97 percent were completed by web and 3 percent by telephone. The survey completion rate is 20.5 percent. The weighted AAPOR RR3 panel recruitment rate is 21.3 percent and the weighted household panel retention rate is 88.9 percent, for a cumulative AAPOR Response Rate 3 of 3.9 percent. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect. Among subgroups, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/ percentage points for African, +/ percentage points for Asian, +/ percentage points for Latinxs, and +/ percentage points for whites. To encourage cooperation, respondents were offered incentives for completing the survey that ranged from the cash-equivalent of $3 to the cash-equivalent of $10. The interviews from the two probability-based sample sources were combined for statistical weighting and analysis. The combined panel samples provide sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box only addresses, some addresses not listed in the USPS Delivery Sequence File, and some newly constructed dwellings. The statistical weights incorporate the appropriate probability of selection for the BYP and AmeriSpeak samples, nonresponse adjustments, and also, raking ratio adjustments to population benchmarks for year-old adults. A poststratification process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any non-coverage or under- and over-sampling resulting from the study-specific sample design. The poststratification process was done separately for each racial/ethnic group and involved the following variables: age, gender, education, and census region. The weighted data, which reflect the U.S. population of adults ages 18-34, and the year-old populations for African, Latinxs, Asian, and non-latinx whites, were used for all analyses. 26

November 2017 Toplines

November 2017 Toplines The first of its kind bi-monthly survey of racially and ethnically diverse young adults GenForward is a survey associated with the University of Chicago Interviews: 10/26-11/10/2017