HISPANIC/LATINO OVERSAMPLE
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- Junior Holt
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1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 Interviews: 300 Latino Registered Voters Date: February 14-16, 2016 Study #16091 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey/Telemundo 50 Male 50 Female Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. The margin of error for 300 interviews among Registered Voters is ±5.66% The margin of error for 131 interviews among Democratic Primary Voters is ±8.56% Unless otherwise noted by a + or ^^ all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults. Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF REFUSED, ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST) and over... 5 Not sure/refused... 1 registered voters. Q3 Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (STATE)]? + Registered Not registered... - Not sure... - Q4 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? 2/16+ 9/15 7/15 12/14 9/14+ 4/13 10/12+ 9/26-30/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 Approve Disapprove Not sure
2 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 2 Q5 Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (AFTER THE FIRST TEN ITEMS, READ:) And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE EXCEPT BARACK OBAMA) Very Positive Positive Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral Barack Obama September July December September April October September 26-30, August July June May May 20-23, May 5-9, September July Hillary Clinton September July September April Bernie Sanders September July
3 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 3 Q5 (cont'd) Very Positive Positive Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral Jeb Bush September July September Donald Trump September July Marco Rubio July September April Ted Cruz July John Kasich Michael Bloomberg Bill Clinton September August George W. Bush September April September August July June June April
4 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 4 Q5 (cont'd) Very Positive Positive Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral The Democratic Party September July December September October September 26-30, August July June May May 20-23, May 5-9, September July The Republican Party September July December September October September 26-30, August July June May May 20-23, May 5-9, September July SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES BY D/S (POSITIVE NEGATIVE) TOTAL TOTAL POSITIVE NEGATIVE D/S Bill Clinton Barack Obama Bernie Sanders The Democratic Party Hillary Clinton John Kasich Michael Bloomberg Jeb Bush Marco Rubio The Republican Party George W. Bush Ted Cruz Donald Trump
5 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 5 I d like to ask you a question about the November 2016 presidential election Q6 Please tell me how interested you are in November's elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a "ten" means that you are very interested in November's elections and a "one" means that you are not at all interested. You may choose any number from one to ten. (IF "NOT SURE," RECORD AS "DK.") 2/16+ 9/15+ 10, very interested , not at all interested Cannot rate /12+ 9/26-30/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 9/08+ 7/ Moving on Q7 Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2016 presidential election that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) And do you strongly prefer a (Democrat/Republican), or is your preference not that strong? + Democrat 62 Strongly Not strongly Republican 26 Not strongly... 8 Strongly Other (VOL)... 2 Not sure... 10
6 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 6 Q8 Now, if there were a presidential primary election in your state, would you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or would you wait to vote in the general election in November 2016? + Vote in Democratic Primary Vote in Republican Primary Wait until the general election Do not plan to vote at all (VOL)... - Not sure... 1 registered voters. Q9 Next, I m going to mention two people who are seeking the Democratic nomination for president. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination president. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE LIST) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES Yes, Could See Self Supporting No, Could Not See Self Supporting Don t Know Name Hillary Clinton ^^ Bernie Sanders ^^ ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Not Sure Q10 And, if the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Other (VOL)... - None (VOL)... 2 Not sure... 3 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Q11 Which one of the following four candidate qualities matters most to you when it comes to your vote in the Democratic primary? Would it be a candidate who (RANDOMIZE) ^^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Has the right experience Is honest and trustworthy Cares about people like you Can win in November Some other quality (VOL DO NOT SPECIFY)... - Not sure... 1 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary
7 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 7 Q12 Do you consider [READ ITEM] to be a progressive? THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES Yes, Is No, Is Not Progressive Progressive Don t Know Name on Q9 Yourself ^^ Bernie Sanders ^^ Hillary Clinton ^^ ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Not Sure Q13-19 Not asked of Hispanic/Latino Oversample Thinking again about the 2016 presidential election (Q20-23 RANDOMIZED) Q20 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Donald Trump were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? 2/16+ 9/15+ Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure (SHOWN ONLY AMONG CLINTON VOTERS) Q20A Are you voting for that person (ROTATE) more because you want that person to be president or more because you do NOT want the other person to be president? + Reg Voters Trump Voters 1 Clinton Voters Want that person to be president Do not want other person to be president Both (VOL Do Not Read) Not sure Neither/Not Sure (Q20) Cell size too small to report. Q21 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Ted Cruz were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? + Ted Cruz Hillary Clinton Depends (VOL)... - Neither/other (VOL)... 6 Not sure... 2
8 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 8 Q22 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Donald Trump were the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? 2/16+ 9/15+ Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure Q23 (And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Ted Cruz ( Cruise ) were the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote? + Ted Cruz Bernie Sanders Depends (VOL)... - Neither/other (VOL)... 5 Not sure... 2 (ALWAYS ASKED AFTER Q20-Q23) Q24 And, if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Donald Trump were the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders were the Democratic candidate, and Michael Bloomberg were the Independent candidate for whom would you vote? + Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Michael Bloomberg Depends (VOL)... 1 Neither/other (VOL)... 4 Not sure... 1 registered voters.
9 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 9 Moving on Q25 Now, which of the following best describes how you would feel if [READ ITEM, NAMES RANDOMIZED] were elected president (ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM/BOTTOM TO TOP) optimistic and confident that (he/she) would do a good job, satisfied and hopeful that (he/she) would do a good job, uncertain and wondering whether (he/she) would do a good job, or pessimistic and worried that (he/she) would do a bad job? THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY OPTIMISTIC AND CONFIDENT OR SATISFIED AND HOPEFUL Optimistic And Confident Satisfied And Hopeful Uncertain And Wondering Pessimistic And Worried Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Ted Cruz John Kasich Donald Trump Not Sure
10 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 10 And, thinking more about some of these candidates (Q26 ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS) Q26 What concerns you more about Hillary Clinton? (ROTATE :1-2, READ :3 LAST) Her ties to Wall Street and millions in speaking fees Her honesty and judgment related to her use of a private server while she was Secretary of State Or is neither one a major concern to you? Both are major concerns to you (VOL) 5 Not sure... - ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary (Q27 ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS) Q27 Which concerns you more about Bernie Sanders? (ROTATE :1-2, READ :3 LAST) His lack of foreign policy experience His proposals are too far out of the mainstream so he cannot beat the Republican candidate Or is neither one a major concern to you? Both are major concerns to you (VOL) 3 Not sure... 3 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary Q28-30 Not asked of Hispanic/Latino Oversample Now, switching topics Q31 Would you say that immigration helps the United States more than it hurts it, OR immigration hurts the United States more than it helps it? 2/16+ 7/15 12/14 6/14 6/12 5/20-23/10 5/6-11/10 6/07 4/06 Helps more than it hurts Hurts more than it helps A little of both (VOL) NA NA NA NA Not sure QX1 This weekend a Supreme Court Justice passed away leaving a vacancy on the court. President Obama will nominate a new person to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Would you prefer the U.S. Senate... vote this year on the replacement nominated by President Obama or leave the position vacant and wait to vote next year on the replacement nominated by the new president or do you not have an opinion one way or the other? + Vote this year on replacement Leave vacant and wait No opinion Not sure... -
11 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 11 Q32 Please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of the following statements. 1 (RANDOMIZE, ASK RESPONDENT ONLY CANDIDATES THEY CAN RATE ON FEELING THERM) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY STRONGLY AGREE Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure (Q5) Cannot Rate Bernie Sanders really cares about people like me Hillary Clinton really cares about people like me Jeb Bush really cares about people like me Marco Rubio really cares about people like me Ted Cruz really cares about people like me Donald Trump really cares about people like me Items read to respondents as cares about people like you. JUNE RESULTS AMONG Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree John McCain really cares about people like me Barack Obama really cares about people like me Items read to respondents as cares about people like you. Not Sure
12 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 12 Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November 2012 election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? + Voted for Barack Obama Voted for Mitt Romney Voted for someone else... 8 Not sure... 1 No, Did Not Vote Not sure... - QF1d And did you happen to vote in the 2014 election for U.S. Congress? + Yes, voted No, did not vote Not sure... 4 QF2 Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do? (RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-athome mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? + Currently Employed Professional, manager White-collar worker Blue-collar worker Farmer, rancher... - Not Currently Employed Student... 5 Stay at home mom/dad... 4 Retired Unemployed, looking for work... 3 Other... - Not sure... 1 registered voters.
13 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 13 QF3 What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.) + Grade school... 1 Some high school... 4 High school graduate Some college, no degree Vocational training/school year college degree year college/bachelor's degree Some postgraduate work, no degree years postgraduate work/master's degree Doctoral/law degree... 3 Not sure/refused... - QF4 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.") + Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Independent/lean Democrat Strictly Independent Independent/lean Republican Not very strong Republican... 7 Strong Republican... 7 Other (VOL)... 4 Not sure... - QF5 Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? + Very liberal... 9 liberal Moderate conservative Very conservative... 9 Not sure... 1
14 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 14 QF5a-f Not asked of Hispanic/Latino Oversample QF6a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR "NOT SURE" IN QF6a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member? + Labor union member Union household... 7 Non-union household Not sure... 1 QF7 How often do you attend services at a church, synagogue, mosque, or other place of worship? (READ LIST.) + Never Once a year A few times a year Once a month About twice a month Once a week or more often Not sure... - QF8 If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year, would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, or would the total be more than that? + Less than $10, Between $10,000 and $20, Between $20,000 and $30, Between $30,000 and $40, Between $40,000 and $50, Between $50,000 and $75, Between $75,000 and $100, More than $100, Not sure/refused... 6
15 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 15 QF9a What language do you mainly speak at home--english or Spanish? Mainly speak English Mainly speak Spanish Speak both equally (VOL) Not sure... - QF9b Do you seek out the majority of election news and overall information on politics from Spanish language media? Yes No Not sure... 1 QF9c Were you or was one of your parents born outside the United States? (IF YES, ASK:) And were you, your parents, or both you and your parents born outside the United States? Yes, respondent born outside United States... 4 Yes, respondent's parents born outside the United States Yes, both respondent and parents born outside the United States No, neither respondent nor parents born outside the United States Not sure... 1 QF9d Do more of your relatives come from Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Central and South America, or from some other Spanish-speaking country? Cuba... 4 Mexico Puerto Rico Central and South America Other Spanish-speaking country Not sure/refused... 10
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