National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1993 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report November 09-11, 2017 P1 Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 268 3% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 06 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve 84 42% Total Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 06 5% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues 376 9% Health Care Issues % Senior s Issues 28 4% Women s Issues 94 5% Education Issues 26 6% Energy Issues 75 4% Other 73 4% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL2 POL3_1 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress 97 49% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress 90 45% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority 386 9% Not too important a priority 60 8% Should not be done 200 0% Dont know/no opinion 69 8% Page 2

3 POL3_4 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority 360 8% Not too important a priority 349 8% Should not be done 363 8% Dont know/no opinion 99 0% POL3_5 POL3_6 POL3_7 POL3_8 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 87 9% Should not be done 265 3% Dont know/no opinion 8 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a tax reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 2 6 % Should not be done 30 7% Dont know/no opinion 2 % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 248 2% Should not be done 55 3% Dont know/no opinion 268 3% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 349 8% Should not be done 94 5% Dont know/no opinion 264 3% Page 3

4 POL3_9 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 294 5% Should not be done 58 8% Dont know/no opinion 2 % POL3_10 POL3_11 POL4_1 POL4_4 POL4_5 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 368 8% Not too important a priority 300 5% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 47 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 277 4% Should not be done 320 6% Dont know/no opinion 94 0% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The corruption and bribery trial of New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez A lot 236 2% Some % Not much % Nothing at all % How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Accusations against the Democratic National Committee by Donna Brazile A lot % Some 59 30% Not much % Nothing at all 56 28% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Democratic election victories in Virginia and New Jersey A lot % Some % Not much 38 9% Nothing at all % Page 4

5 POL4_6 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? A proposal for changes to the tax system released by President Trump and Republicans in Congress A lot % Some % Not much 323 6% Nothing at all 280 4% POL4_7 POL5 POL6_1 POL6_4 POL6_5 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Accusations against Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore involving a sexual relationship with a minor A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all % Based on what youve seen, read or heard about a proposal for changes to the tax system released by President Trump and Republicans in Congress, do you support or oppose this proposal? (N=1,713) Strongly support 307 8% Somewhat support 50 29% Somewhat oppose 2 4 2% Strongly oppose % Dont Know/No Opinion 223 3% As you may know, President Trump and Republicans in Congress recently released a proposal for changes to the tax system. Based on what you know, do you believe each of the following will bene t from this proposal, or not? President Trump himself Yes, will bene t 24 56% No, will not bene t 323 6% Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, President Trump and Republicans in Congress recently released a proposal for changes to the tax system. Based on what you know, do you believe each of the following will bene t from this proposal, or not? The Trump Organization Yes, will bene t 4 57% No, will not bene t 282 4% Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, President Trump and Republicans in Congress recently released a proposal for changes to the tax system. Based on what you know, do you believe each of the following will bene t from this proposal, or not? You and your family Yes, will bene t % No, will not bene t % Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 5

6 POL7_1 As you may know, President Trump and Republicans in Congress recently released a proposal for changes to the tax system. If each of the following bene ts from the proposal, how concerned, if at all, would this make you? President Trump himself Very concerned % Somewhat concerned 3 3 6% Not too concerned 296 5% Not concerned at all 248 2% Dont Know/No Opinion 252 3% POL7_4 POL8_1 POL8_4 POL9 As you may know, President Trump and Republicans in Congress recently released a proposal for changes to the tax system. If each of the following bene ts from the proposal, how concerned, if at all, would this make you? The Trump Organization Very concerned % Somewhat concerned 379 9% Not too concerned 278 4% Not concerned at all 222 % Dont Know/No Opinion 287 4% And, if each of the following bene ts from the proposal, would this make you more likely to support the proposal, more likely to oppose the proposal, or would it not change your mind either way? President Trump himself Much more likely to support 83 9% Somewhat more likely to support 202 0% Somewhat less likely to support 82 9% Much less likely to support 63 32% Would not change my mind either way % Dont Know/No Opinion 334 7% And, if each of the following bene ts from the proposal, would this make you more likely to support the proposal, more likely to oppose the proposal, or would it not change your mind either way? The Trump Organization Much more likely to support 64 8% Somewhat more likely to support 98 0% Somewhat less likely to support 20 0% Much less likely to support % Would not change my mind either way % Dont Know/No Opinion 347 7% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? President Trump should release his tax returns before % any tax reform proposal moves forward President Trump should not have to release his tax % returns before any tax reform proposal moves forward Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 6

7 POL10 As you may know, under the current tax code, families can claim a tax credit of up to $13,570 to cover expenses associated with completing an adoption. Knowing this, do you support or oppose the adoption tax credit? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 202 0% Strongly oppose 28 6% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL11 POL12 POL13 POL14 POL15_1 As you may know, eliminating the adoption tax credit would save the government $3.8 billion over the next decade. Knowing this, do you believe Congress should... Eliminate the adoption tax credit % Maintain the adoption tax credit % Dont Know/No Opinion % Do you support or oppose stricter gun control laws in the United States? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 247 2% Strongly oppose % Dont Know/No Opinion 52 8% Generally, if Congress passes legislations placing additional regulations on gun ownership, which of the following is more likely to happen? Gun violence will decrease by making it more difficult 83 42% for criminals and mentally disturbed individuals to access guns Gun violence will increase by making it more difficult % for people to defend themselves against criminals and mentally disturbed individuals Dont Know/No Opinion 385 9% Which of the following do you think is more important? Protecting the right of Americans to own guns 96 48% Limiting gun ownership % Dont Know/ No Opinion 223 % In thinking about the United States over the next few years, do you believe there will be more, fewer, or about the same amount of... Mass shootings More 64 58% Fewer 77 9% About the same amount % Dont Know/No Opinion 223 % Page 7

8 POL15_4 In thinking about the United States over the next few years, do you believe there will be more, fewer, or about the same amount of... Incidents of gun violence More 37 57% Fewer 63 8% About the same amount % Dont Know/No Opinion 97 0% POL15_5 POL15_6 POL16_1 POL16_4 POL16_5 In thinking about the United States over the next few years, do you believe there will be more, fewer, or about the same amount of... Acts of terrorism More % Fewer 95 0% About the same amount % Dont Know/No Opinion 88 9% In thinking about the United States over the next few years, do you believe there will be more, fewer, or about the same amount of... Incidents of suicide More % Fewer 70 9% About the same amount 65 33% Dont Know/No Opinion 295 5% How serious of a problem is each of the following in the United States today? Acts of terrorism committed by an extremist group, such as ISIS Very serious problem % Somewhat of a serious problem % Not too serious a problem 4 7% Not a serious problem at all 43 2% Dont Know/No Opinion 06 5% How serious of a problem is each of the following in the United States today? Acts of terrorism committed by an individual, sometimes referred to as a lone-wolf attack Very serious problem % Somewhat of a serious problem % Not too serious a problem 93 5% Not a serious problem at all 9 % Dont Know/No Opinion 06 5% How serious of a problem is each of the following in the United States today? Mass shootings Very serious problem % Somewhat of a serious problem 325 6% Not too serious a problem 80 4% Not a serious problem at all 26 % Dont Know/No Opinion 09 5% Page 8

9 POL16_6 How serious of a problem is each of the following in the United States today? Assaults in which a gun is used Very serious problem % Somewhat of a serious problem % Not too serious a problem 3 6% Not a serious problem at all 4 2% Dont Know/No Opinion 2 6% POL17 POL18 POL19 POL20 POL21 As you may know, the U.S. Department of Justice has appointed a special prosecutor to investigate any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign. Based on what you know, do you believe the special prosecutors investigation has been fair or not? Yes, it has been fair % No, it has not been fair % Dont Know/No Opinion % Do you believe President Trump should re the special prosecutor in charge of the investigation, or not? Yes, should re 340 7% No, should not re % Dont Know/No Opinion % If the 2020 presidential election was held today, would you vote to re-elect President Trump, or vote for the Democratic candidate? President Trump % Democratic candidate % Dont Know/No Opinion 356 8% If the 2020 presidential election was held today, would you vote to re-elect President Trump, or vote for Joe Biden? President Trump % Joe Biden 9 46% Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, The Washington Post has reported that Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore initiated an inappropriate sexual relationship with a 14-year old minor, as well as pursued other girls who were between the ages of 16 and 18. The Washington Post based its account on interviews with more than 30 people who said they knew Moore during the time of the alleged incidents. Knowing this, how credible do you nd this reporting? Very credible % Somewhat credible % Not too credible 227 % Not credible at all 9 6% Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 9

10 POL22 In light of these allegations, do you believe Roy Moore should continue his run for Senate, or not? Should continue his run for Senate 3 6 6% Should not continue his run for Senate 97 60% Dont Know/No Opinion % indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 indpresapp_7 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable 388 9% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Paul Ryan Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 10

11 indpresapp_8 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 38 9% indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 50 8% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Republicans in Congress Total Favorable 59 30% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 3 3 6% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 327 6% Page 11

12 indpresapp_12 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 39 20% indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 385 9% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Steve Bannon Total Favorable 366 8% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 12

13 indpresapp_16 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Hope Hicks Total Favorable 232 2% Total Unfavorable 332 7% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_17 indpresapp_18 indpresapp_19 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Gary Cohn Total Favorable 265 3% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Jeff Sessions Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 77 39% Page 13

14 indpresapp_20 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_21 indpresapp_22 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Bob Corker Total Favorable 32 6% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 68 59% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Donna Brazile Total Favorable 378 9% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_23 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Roy Moore Total Favorable 272 4% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 9 60% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 14

15 National Tracking Poll #171104, November, 2017 Respondent Demographics Summary Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) 73 37% PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 297 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 3 6% PID/Gender: Ind Women 3 5 6% PID/Gender: Rep Men 32 6% PID/Gender: Rep Women 3 5 6% xdemtea Tea Party: Supporter % Tea Party: Not Supporter 48 74% N 980 xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) 66 33% Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 775 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 240 2% xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k 62 3 % Income: 100k % Continued on next page Page 15

16 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 78 9% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 4 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 290 5% N 760 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 46 2% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 88 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 88 60% Relig: All Non-Christian % xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 56 8% Employ: Self-Employed 63 8% Employ: Homemaker 85 9% Employ: Student 68 3% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 60 8% Employ: Other 6 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 384 9% Military HH: No % xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track % Continued on next page Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #171104, November, 2017 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Q172 Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 268 3% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 06 5% xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 376 9% #1 Issue: Health Care % #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 28 4% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 94 5% #1 Issue: Education 26 6% #1 Issue: Energy 75 4% #1 Issue: Other 73 4% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 8 9% N 662 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 03 5% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 989 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 364 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 17

18 Morning Consult Page 18