National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1994 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report June 07-10, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 3 57% Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve 44 22% Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 267 3% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 74 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve 89 45% Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 74 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues 366 8% Health Care Issues 326 6% Senior s Issues 354 8% Women s Issues 0 5% Education Issues 45 7% Energy Issues 68 3% Other 8 4% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 85 43% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress 90 45% Republicans in Congress 65 33% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 45 23% Page 2

3 POL2 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion 383 9% POL3_1 POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority 50 25% Not too important a priority 57 8% Should not be done 04 5% Don t know/no opinion 55 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority 67 34% An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 328 6% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 65 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 72 9% Should not be done 224 % Don t know/no opinion 9 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 252 3% Should not be done 44 2% Don t know/no opinion 252 3% Page 3

4 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 38 9% Should not be done 85 4% Don t know/no opinion 256 3% POL3_8 POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 27 4% Should not be done 23 6% Don t know/no opinion 89 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 3 0 6% Not too important a priority 289 5% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 47 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 292 5% Should not be done 294 5% Don t know/no opinion 68 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority 6 3 % Not too important a priority 48 7% Should not be done 27 % Don t know/no opinion 67 8% Page 4

5 POL3_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional regulations on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 2 2 % Should not be done 387 9% Don t know/no opinion 60 8% POL4 POL5 POL6 POL7_1 POL7_4 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? A meeting scheduled for June 12th between President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un A lot % Some % Not much 245 2% Nothing at all 36 7% To the best of your knowledge, do you believe the 2010 Affordable Care Act, sometimes referred to as Obamacare, has been: Repealed in part % Repealed in full 55 8% Repealed and replaced 57 8% Not been repealed or replaced at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 359 8% When it comes to the 2010 Affordable Care Act, sometimes referred to as Obamacare, do you think it should be Expanded % Kept as is 26 3% Repealed in part 323 6% Repealed completely % Don t Know/No Opinion 24 2% Who would you say is most responsible for each of the following, President Trump or President Obama? The state of the U.S. health care system President Trump % President Obama % Don t Know/No Opinion % Who would you say is most responsible for each of the following, President Trump or President Obama? The state of the Affordable Care Act, sometimes referred to as Obamacare President Trump 34 7% President Obama % Don t Know/No Opinion 24 2% Page 5

6 POL8 Do you support or oppose a single payer health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government? (N=993) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 29 3% Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 67 7% POL9 POL10 POL11 POL12 Do you support or oppose a Medicare-for-all health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government? (N=1,001) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 07 % Strongly oppose 49 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 3 % Do you think the government spends too little, too much, or about the right amount on health care? Too little % Too much 297 5% About the right amount 280 4% Don t Know/No Opinion 342 7% Based on what you know, do you think is it legally permissible for the President of the United States to pardon themselves of a crime? Yes, it is legally permissible % No, it is not legally permissible 6 58% Don t Know/No Opinion % Do you think the Department of Justice investigation into Russias in uence on the 2016 presidential election has been handled fairly or unfairly? Very fairly % Somewhat fairly 338 7% Not too fairly 344 7% Not fairly at all % Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 6

7 POL13 Do you think President Trumps campaign worked with Russia to in uence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election? Yes, I think President Trumps campaign worked with % Russia to in uence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. No, I don t think President Trumps campaign worked % with Russia to in uence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Don t Know/No Opinion 360 8% POL14 POL15 POL16 POL17_1 And do you think President has tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia? Yes, I think President Trump has tried to impede or % obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. No, I don t think President Trump has tried to impede % or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. Don t Know/No Opinion 3 6 6% If President Trump were found guilty of a criminal offense as a result of the Department of Justices investigation into Russias in uence on the 2016 presidential election, would you say he should: Pardon himself % Not pardon himself 75 59% Don t Know/No Opinion % How much con dence do you have in President Trump to handle threats posed by North Korea? A lot % Some % Not much 327 6% No con dence at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 25 6% Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Continue diplomatic efforts to get North Korea to suspend its nuclear weapons program Strongly support 56 58% Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 85 4% Strongly oppose 58 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 259 3% Page 7

8 POL17_4 Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Adding North Korea to a list of countries that are designated as state sponsors of terrorism Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 255 3% Strongly oppose 36 7% Don t Know/No Opinion 48 24% POL17_5 POL17_6 POL17_7 POL17_8 Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Additional sanctions against the government and government leaders Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 98 0% Strongly oppose 88 4% Don t Know/No Opinion 388 9% Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Sanctions against countries that trade with North Korea Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 246 2% Strongly oppose 07 5% Don t Know/No Opinion % Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Air strikes against military targets and suspected nuclear sites in North Korea Strongly support 309 6% Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose % Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 350 8% Do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure North Korea to stop building its nuclear weapons program? Send in U.S. ground troops to take control of the country Strongly support 8 9% Somewhat support 242 2% Somewhat oppose % Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion 302 5% Page 8

9 POL18 Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? President Trump should only meet with North Korean % leader Kim Jong-un if North Korea makes concessions on their nuclear weapons program beforehand President Trump should meet with North Korean 99 50% leader Kim Jong-un regardless of whether North Korea makes concessions on their nuclear weapons program beforehand Don t Know/No Opinion 365 8% POL19_1 POL19_4 POL19_5 As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? The relationship between the United States and North Korea will improve Very likely 60 8% Somewhat likely % Not too likely % Not likely at all 234 2% Don t Know/No Opinion 350 8% As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? The relationship between the United States and North Korea will worsen Very likely 203 0% Somewhat likely % Not too likely % Not likely at all 208 0% Don t Know/No Opinion % As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? The relationship between North Korea and the international community will improve Very likely 36 7% Somewhat likely % Not too likely % Not likely at all 248 2% Don t Know/No Opinion 378 9% Page 9

10 POL19_6 As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? The relationship between North Korea and the international community will worsen Very likely 8 9% Somewhat likely % Not too likely % Not likely at all 97 0% Don t Know/No Opinion 45 23% POL19_7 POL19_8 POL19_9 As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? North Korea will get rid of their nuclear weapons program completely Very likely 86 4% Somewhat likely 278 4% Not too likely % Not likely at all 69 35% Don t Know/No Opinion 303 5% As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? North Korea will get rid of their nuclear weapons program partially Very likely 97 5% Somewhat likely % Not too likely % Not likely at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 322 6% As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? U.S. sanctions against North Korea will decrease Very likely 98 5% Somewhat likely % Not too likely 62 3 % Not likely at all 284 4% Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 10

11 POL19_10 As you may know, President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit on June 12th. How likely do you think each of the following outcomes are from their meeting? U.S. sanctions against North Korea will increase Very likely 84 9% Somewhat likely % Not too likely % Not likely at all 27 6% Don t Know/No Opinion % POL20 POL21 POL22 POL23_1 Would you say that President Trump is more focused on the needs of people serving in the military, less focused on the needs of people serving in the military, or focused at about same level that President Barack Obama was when he was in office? Trump is more focused on the needs of people serving % in the military than Obama was Trump is less focused on the needs of people serving in % the military than Obama was Trump is focused on the needs of people serving in the 200 0% military at about the same level Obama was Don t Know/No Opinion 348 7% As you may know, President Trump has not traveled to the Middle East to visit U.S. troops stationed there since becoming president. Do you think that President Trump should travel to the Middle East to visit U.S. troops stationed there? Yes % No 3 0 6% Don t Know/No Opinion % As you may know, former President Barack Obama traveled to the Middle East to visit U.S. troops in Iraq three months into his presidency. Knowing this, do you think President Trump should travel to the Middle East to visit U.S. troops stationed there? Yes 23 62% No 352 8% Don t Know/No Opinion 4 2 % How much do you think each of the following cares about the needs of people serving in the military? President Trump A lot % Some % Not much 36 8% Not at all % Don t Know/No Opinion 70 9% Page 11

12 POL23_4 How much do you think each of the following cares about the needs of people serving in the military? Republicans in Congress A lot % Some % Not much 367 8% Not at all 239 2% Don t Know/No Opinion 220 % POL23_5 indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 indpresapp_7 indpresapp_8 How much do you think each of the following cares about the needs of people serving in the military? Democrats in Congress A lot % Some % Not much % Not at all 303 5% Don t Know/No Opinion 220 % Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 333 7% Page 12

13 indpresapp_9 Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 88 4% indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 indpresapp_16 Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 250 3% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 258 3% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 366 8% Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 330 7% Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable 370 9% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_17 Favorability for: Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 13

14 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female 06 53% age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 872 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) 69 35% PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 299 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 332 7% PID/Gender: Ind Women 354 8% PID/Gender: Rep Men 303 5% PID/Gender: Rep Women 3 4 6% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) 43 22% Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 8 4 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 268 3% Continued on next page Page 14

15 National Tracking Poll #180612, June, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k 42 57% Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 93 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 28 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 38 9% Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 286 4% N 769 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 55 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 40 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 40 57% Relig: All Non-Christian % N 990 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban 92 46% Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector 62 3 % Employ: Government 34 7% Employ: Self-Employed 58 8% Employ: Homemaker 38 7% Employ: Student 82 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 5 8% Employ: Other 54 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes % Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 15

16 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 3 57% Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve 89 45% Trump Job Disapprove % N 920 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve 44 22% Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 267 3% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 920 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 366 8% #1 Issue: Health Care 326 6% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 354 8% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 0 5% #1 Issue: Education 45 7% #1 Issue: Energy 68 3% #1 Issue: Other 8 4% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 9 0% N 659 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney 56 28% 2012 Vote: Other 98 5% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 993 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 356 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Continued on next page Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #180612, June, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 906 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 370 9% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 2 % Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 906 Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 17

18 Morning Consult Page 18