November 2017 Toplines

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1 November 2017 Toplines The first of its kind bi-monthly survey of racially and ethnically diverse young adults GenForward is a survey associated with the University of Chicago Interviews: 10/26-11/10/2017 Total N: 1,876 adults Age Range: NOTE: All results indicate percentages unless otherwise labeled.

2 MARGIN OF ERROR ESTIMATES (% pts) Group Estimate Full Sample +/ African Americans +/ Asian Americans +/ Latinxs +/ Whites +/ NOTE: All estimates are calculated at the 95% level of confidence 2

3 Q0. Did you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, someone else, or not vote in the 2016 presidential election? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Someone else Did not vote in the 2016 presidential election DON T KNOW * * * * * SKIP/REFUSED * - - * * Q1. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED * * 1 * * Q2. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove DON T KNOW * - * - * SKIP/REFUSED

4 Q3. For both parties, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that party. If you don t know enough about the party to have an opinion, you can say that too. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Q3A. The Republican Party Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say SKIP/REFUSED * 1 Q3B. The Democratic Party Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 * * * Q4. Do you think the Democratic Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes No DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED Q5. Do you think the Republican Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes No DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED

5 Q6. Would you say things in this country are Off on the wrong track Generally headed in the right direction Not sure SKIP/REFUSED * 1 Q7. How would you describe the nation s economy these days? Would you say Very good Somewhat good Neither good nor poor Somewhat poor Very poor Not sure SKIP/REFUSED * 5 1 * 1 Q8. Generally speaking, how optimistic are you about your personal future think about things like finding and keeping a good job, paying off your student loan debt, and being able to afford the lifestyle you want? Very optimistic Somewhat optimistic Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Somewhat pessimistic Very pessimistic DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED * 1 5

6 Q9. Next we would like for you to think about the upcoming congressional elections that will be held in In the congressional elections in 2018, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Neither/Not Sure SKIP/REFUSED * 1 If Neither/Not Sure Q9A. Do you lean more towards planning to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? African Americans Asian Americans Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Neither SKIP/REFUSED * 2 N=

7 Q10A. What do you think are the three most important problems facing this country today? Please select which three of these are the most important. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Abortion National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights 4 * Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED * 1 7

8 Q10B. Please rank these three problems facing this country today in order of their importance to you. [SHOW ITEMS SELECTED IN Q13A] African American adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion * 1 1 National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength * * * Morality and religion in society 3 * * Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy * 1 1 Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=

9 Asian American adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights - * - Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength * * 1 Morality and religion in society Racism Social Security * 2 3 Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=

10 Latinx adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 1 * 1 National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society 1 1 * Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=

11 White adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights 1 * 2 Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=

12 All adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=

13 Q45. Does who is president make a big difference, some difference or no difference on your own personal life? Big difference Some difference No difference DON T KNOW * - * - * SKIP/REFUSED * 1 Q46. Since Donald Trump was elected, would you say you ve become more interested in politics, less interested in politics, or has your level of interest in politics not really changed? More interested in politics Less interested in politics Interest hasn t really changed DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED * 1 Q47. Which of the following best explains your feelings about the job that President Trump is doing so far as president? Better than you expected About what you expected Worse than you expected DON T KNOW * - * - * SKIP/REFUSED

14 Q48. Do you think that Donald Trump has a new approach to politics in Washington or Donald Trump s approach to politics in Washington is business as usual? African Americans Asian Americans Donald Trump has a new approach to politics in Washington Donald Trump s approach to politics in Washington is business as usual DON T KNOW 1 - * - * SKIP/REFUSED Q49. Do you think that President Donald Trump will be president for the entire four years of his term, or not? Yes No, he will be impeached No, he will resign No, he will leave office for some other reason DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED * 2 Q50. In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? Parties do adequate job Third party is needed DON T KNOW * SKIP/REFUSED

15 Q51. What best describes your feelings about what Donald Trump is doing as President? Excited Optimistic Concerned Scared DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED Q52. How do you think Donald Trump will go down in history as president? A great president A good president An average president A not very good president A poor president DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED * 2 15

16 DEMOGRAPHICS PID1. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? Democrat Republican Independent Something Else DON'T KNOW * SKIP/REFUSED * 1 If independent, something else, or DK/REF in PID1 PIDI. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Closer to the Republican Party Closer to the Democratic Party Neither DON T KNOW * SKIP/REFUSED * 2 N= If Democrat in PID1 PIDA. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED * - * - * N=

17 If Republican in PID1 PIDB. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? Strong Republican Not very strong Republican DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED N= PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Closer to the Democratic Party Independent/None Don t lean Republican (NET) Closer to the Republican Party Not very strong Republican Strong Republican N= AGE GENDER Male Female

18 RACE/ETHNICITY 1 All adults African American 14 Asian American 7 Latinx 21 White 56 Other 1 N= 1876 MARITAL STATUS Married Widowed * - * * * Divorced Separated 2 * Never married Living with partner EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed Not employed EDUCATION African Americans Asian Americans Less than a high school diploma High school graduate or equivalent Some college College graduate or above All of the African American, Asian American, White, and Other respondents do not identify as Latinx. 18

19 INCOME Under $10, $10,000 to under $20, $20,000 to under $30, $30,000 to under $40, $40,000 to under $50, $50,000 to under $75, $75,000 to under $100, $100,000 to under $150, $150,000 or more

20 UNWEIGHTED DEMOGRAPHICS UNWEIGHTED PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Closer to the Democratic Party Independent/None Don t lean Republican (NET) Closer to the Republican Party Not very strong Republican Strong Republican UNWEIGHTED AGE UNWEIGHTED GENDER African Americans Asian Americans Male Female UNWEIGHTED RACE/ETHNICITY All adults African American 29 Asian American 13 Latinx 27 White 28 Other 3 N=

21 UNWEIGHTED MARITAL STATUS Married Widowed * - * * * Divorced Separated 2 * Never married Living with partner UNWEIGHTED EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed Not employed UNWEIGHTED EDUCATION African Americans Asian Americans 21 Less than a high school diploma High school graduate or equivalent Some college College graduate or above UNWEIGHTED INCOME Under $10, $10,000 to under $20, $20,000 to under $30, $30,000 to under $40, $40,000 to under $50, $50,000 to under $75, $75,000 to under $100, $100,000 to under $150, $150,000 or more

22 STUDY METHODOLOGY The GenForward November survey is a project lead by Professor Cathy J. Cohen at the University of Chicago, with The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Interviews were conducted with a representative sample from GenForward SM, a nationally representative survey panel of adults ages recruited and administered by NORC at the University of Chicago and funded by grants to the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Ford Foundation. A total of 1,876 interviews were conducted between October 26 and Novemeber 10, 2017 with adults ages representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including completed interviews with 541 African American young adults, 250 Asian American young adults, 508 Latinx young adults, 527 white young adults, and 50 young adults with other racial and ethnic backgrounds. The survey was offered in English and Spanish and via telephone and web modes. The GenForward survey was built from two sample sources: Sixty-seven percent of the completed interviews are sourced from NORC s AmeriSpeak Panel. AmeriSpeak is a probability based panel that also uses address-based sample but sourced from the NORC National Frame with enhanced sample coverage. During the initial recruitment phase of the AmeriSpeak panel, randomly selected U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection and then contacted by U.S. mail, , telephone, and field interviewers (face-to-face). Thirty-three percent of the completed interviews are sourced from the Black Youth Project (BYP) panel of young adults recruited by NORC. The BYP sample is from a probability-based household panel that uses an address-based sample from a registered voter database of the entire U.S. Households were selected using stratified random sampling to support over-sampling of households with African Americans, Latinxs, and Asian Americans ages NORC contacted sampled households by U.S. mail and by telephone, inviting them to register and participate in public opinion surveys twice a month. Panelists on both the BYP and AmeriSpeak panels are invited to register for the panel via the web or by telephone to participate in public opinion surveys. Of the 1,876 completed interviews in the GenForward November survey, 94 percent were completed by web and 6 percent by telephone. The survey completion rate is 26.6 percent. The weighted AAPOR RR3 panel recruitment rate is 21.3 percent and the weighted household panel retention rate is 88.9 percent, for a cumulative AAPOR Response Rate 3 of 5 percent. The overall margin of sampling error is +/ percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect. Among subgroups, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/ percentage points for African Americans, +/ percentage points for Asian Americans, +/ percentage points for Latinxs, and +/ percentage points for whites. To encourage cooperation, respondents were offered incentives for completing the survey that ranged from the cash-equivalent of $3 to the cash-equivalent of $10. The interviews from the two probability-based sample sources were combined for statistical weighting and analysis. The combined panel samples provide sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. 22

23 household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box only addresses, some addresses not listed in the USPS Delivery Sequence File, and some newly constructed dwellings. The statistical weights incorporate the appropriate probability of selection for the BYP and AmeriSpeak samples, nonresponse adjustments, and also, raking ratio adjustments to population benchmarks for year-old adults. A poststratification process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any non-coverage or under- and over-sampling resulting from the study-specific sample design. The poststratification process was done separately for each racial/ethnic group and involved the following variables: age, gender, education, and census region. The weighted data, which reflect the U.S. population of adults ages 18-34, and the year-old populations for African Americans, Latinxs, Asian Americans, and non-latinx whites, were used for all analyses. 23

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