Muhlenberg College/Morning Call. Pennsylvania 15 th Congressional District Registered Voter Survey

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Flora Todd
5 years ago
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1 KEY FINDINGS: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania 15 th Congressional District Registered Voter Survey January/February As the 2018 Midterm elections approach Pennsylvania s 15 th Congressional District is one of the most interesting battlegrounds in the country. With long term Republican incumbent Charlie Dent not seeking reelection, and a court ordered redistricting potentially changing the makeup of the district, there is tremendous uncertainty regarding the future for this district in an important election year. 2. As he finishes out his final term in the House of Representatives Congressman Dent maintains fairly positive ratings from his constituents with nearly twice as many registered voters approving of his job performance (42%) as disapproving (22%) of his work in Congress. 3. While President Trump won the 15 th District by 8 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016, a majority (56%) of registered voters in the district currently disapprove of his handling of the presidency with only 40% approving of his work in the White House. 4. President Trump does receive high marks from those in the district that voted for him in 2016 with 82% of his voters currently approving of Trump s handling of his job compared to 12% who disapprove and 5% with no opinion. 5. When asked to indicate which party s candidate they would support in the next congressional election 15 th District registered voters were fairly divided with 38% preferring a Democrat, 35% supporting a Republican and the remainder either unsure (16%) or preferring neither major party candidate (11%). 6. Economic matters were identified as the most important issue in the upcoming election by 17% of 15 th District voters, with health care closely behind at 14%. 7. While fairly divided on building a wall on the border with Mexico with 41% of registered voters in the district supporting construction and 53% opposing such an option, 15 th District voters overwhelming favor (83%) allowing young immigrants who were brought into the country illegally to remain in the United States if they meet certain requirements th District voters are split on the recent tax reform law with 42% favoring the law and 39% opposing the legislation.

2 Methodological Statement The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 418 registered voters in the 15 th Congressional District of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between January 28 and February 7, Respondents were interviewed in English on both land lines (146) and cell phones (272) by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) in Allentown, Pennsylvania on the Institute s Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. With a randomly selected sample of 418 respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The sample data has been weighted by gender and party to reflect those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Secretary of State.. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of adult Pennsylvanians both land lines and cell phones are called up to 5 times. The response rate for this survey as calculated using the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) RRII formula is 9%. Due to rounding the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the MCIPO is conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at or Dr. Borick at cborick@muhlenberg.edu. PA 15 th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL JAN/FEB 2018 FINAL INSTRUMENT Q1: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST)? % % % and over...23% Q2: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a? (READ LIST) 1. Democrat 44% 2. Republican.41% 3. Independent...14% 4. Other Party. 2% 5. or Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (END SURVEY)

3 Q3: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he is doing his job. First, President Trump 1. Approve..40% 2. Disapprove.56% 3. No opinion (Volunteered).. 5% Q4: Next, Governor Tom Wolf? 1. Approve..37% 2. Disapprove.32% 3. No opinion (Volunteered).. 31% Q5: Senator Bob Casey Jr.? 1. Approve..34% 2. Disapprove.31% 3. No opinion (Volunteered)..36% Q6: and Congressman Charlie Dent? 1. Approve..42% 2. Disapprove.22% 3. No opinion (Volunteered)..36% Q7: Next, do you think that Tom Wolf deserves or does not deserve reelection as Governor of Pennsylvania? 1. Deserves Reelection.. 35% 2. Does Not Deserve Reelection 40% 3. Not Sure (Volunteered). 24% Q8: Do you think that Bob Casey Jr. deserves or does not deserve reelection to the United States Senate? 1. Deserves Reelection.. 35% 2. Does Not Deserve Reelection 35% 3. Not Sure (Volunteered)..31%

4 Q9: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for? The Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? (OPTIONS ROTATED) 1. Democrat. 38% 2. Republican.. 35% 3. Neither/Other.. 11% 4. Not Sure (Volunteered).. 16% Q10: What issue do you consider the most important in terms of deciding your vote in your congressional election this November? ( Open Ended Coded into Categories) Economy/Jobs. 17% Health Care.14% Immigration...8% National Security..7% Taxes... 7% Women s Rights 5% Reforming Government.4% Education...4% Abortion.3% Environment.. 3% Opioid Addiction 3% Confronting Trump. 2% Racial Issues 2% Not Sure 11% Other.9% Q11: For the following list of issues please indicate if the issue is very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all in terms of your vote in the congressional election this November. First, immigration: 1.Very Important 53% 2. Somewhat Important..41% 3. Not Too Important. 4% 4. Not Important at All... 2% 5. Not Sure (Vol) 1% Q12: Next, Health Care: 1.Very Important 76% 2. Somewhat Important..22% 3. Not Too Important. 1% 4. Not Important at All... 1%

5 Q13: The Economy 1.Very Important 69% 2. Somewhat Important..25% 3. Not Too Important. 6% 4. Not Important at All... 1% Q14: Terrorism 1.Very Important 59% 2. Somewhat Important..23% 3. Not Too Important.11% 4. Not Important at All... 5% 5. Not Sure (Vol) 2% Q15: Climate Change 1.Very Important 32% 2. Somewhat Important..36% 3. Not Too Important.19% 4. Not Important at All...12% 5. Not Sure (Vol) 1% Q16: Women s Rights 1.Very Important 54% 2. Somewhat Important..35% 3. Not Too Important. 9% 4. Not Important at All... 2% 5. Not Sure (Vol) 1% Q17: and Gun Violence 1.Very Important 54% 2. Somewhat Important..29% 3. Not Too Important.13% 4. Not Important at All... 4% Q18: Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform law that was passed by Congress and signed by the President in December? 1. Approve 42% 2. Disapprove...39% 3. Not Sure (Vol)..20%

6 Q19: Do you think the new tax law will increase your taxes, lower your taxes or not have much impact on your taxes at all? 1. Increase Taxes.22% 2. Decrease Taxes 33% 3. Not Have Much Impact 34% 4. Not Sure (Vol)..12% Q20: Do you favor or oppose building a wall along the U.S. Mexico border to try and stop illegal immigration? 1. Favor.41% 2. Oppose..53% 3. Not Sure (Vol)... 7% Q21: In general, do you favor or oppose allowing young immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children to remain in the country if they meet certain requirements such as going to school or joining the military, and not having a criminal record? 1. Favor.83% 2. Oppose.. 9% 3. Not Sure (Vol)... 8% Q22: In terms of the recent federal government shutdown do you hold President Trump and congressional Republicans or congressional Democrats? 1. President Trump and Congressional Republicans. 30% 2. Congressional Democrats.. 37% 3. Both Equally Responsible (VOL)... 24% 4. Not Sure(Vol). 9% Q23: Now I have a few questions about Charlie Dent s decision not to seek reelection as the Congressman from the 15 th Congressional district. Would you say that your were pleased or disappointed by Congressman Dent s decision not to seek reelection? 1. Pleased 25% 2. Disappointed.. 28% 3. Neither pleased or disappointed (Vol) 18% 4. Not Sure (Vol).29%

7 Q24: During his years in Congress would you say that Congressman Dent did an excellent, good, fair or poor job representing the interests of citizens in the 15 th Congressional District? 1. Excellent.12% 2. Good... 34% 3. Fair..43% 4. Poor. 5% 5. Not Sure (Vol). 6% Q25: In the 2016 Presidential election did you vote for Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, another candidate or did you not vote in that election? 1. Trump 39% 2. Clinton.. 36% 3. Another Candidate 5% 4. Did not vote.. 17% 5. Not Sure (Volunteered) 2% Q26: In general would you describe your political beliefs as very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal? 1. Very Conservative 9% 2. Somewhat Conservative...31% 3. Moderate...31% 4. Somewhat Liberal.22% 5. Very Liberal 4% 6. Not Sure (Vol) 4% Q27: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)? 1. White/Caucasian 84% 2. African-American... 3% 3. Hispanic. 5% 4. Latino. 2% 5. Asian..<1% 6. Native American <1% 7. Mixed race. 3% 8. or other 2% 9. Not Sure (Volunteered).. 1%

8 Q28: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)? 1. Catholic 33% 2. Protestant..35% 3. Jewish 4% 4. Muslim.. 1% 5. Hindu <1% 6. Other Religion (Including agnostic)..17% 7. or Atheist 7% 8. Not Sure (Volunteered). 3% Q29: What is your current marital status? Are you (READ LIST)? 1. Single 22% 2. Married.65% 3. Separated.. 1% 4. Divorced... 4% 5. Widowed.. 6% 6. Partnered... 2% Q30: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST) 1. Less than High School. 2% 2. High School Graduate..20% 3. Some college or technical school.22% 4. College graduate (4 yr only) 38% 5. Graduate or professional degree...17% Q31: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)? 1. Under $20,000. 9% 2. $20,000-$40,000.15% 3. $40,000-$60,000.13% 4. $60,000-$80,000.17% 5. $80,000-$100, % 6. Over $100,000 24% 7. Not Sure (Volunteered) 5% Q32: Finally to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST) 1. Male 49% 2. Female.51% 3. Transgender Male <1% 4. Transgender Female 0% 5. Or you do not identify as male, female or transgender <1%

Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2018 Midterm Election Survey April Wave

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