Arizona Polling. Contact: Doug Kaplan,

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1 Arizona Polling Executive Summary Contact: Doug Kaplan, Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,165 likely voters in Arizona. The poll was conducted from October 24 th through November 2 nd, with a margin of error of ±2.9%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using live agents and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics. The poll was Paid for by Gravis Marketing. 3) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of President Trump s job performance? Q3: TRUMPPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 6.3% 13.2% 18.2% 13.6% 12.2% 16.4% 7.5% 6.2% 10.5% 10.3% Somewhat Disapprove 5.9% 2.1% 32.5% 10.1% 18.4% 11.7% 5.1% 2.8% 7.2% 9.8% Strongly Approve 42.6% 26.5% 17.2% 37.9% 17.5% 40.5% 42.4% 43.3% 35.8% 40.5% Strongly Disapprove 41.9% 46.2% 28.8% 37.1% 44.8% 29.1% 43.3% 43.9% 42.9% 36.4% Uncertain 3.3% 12.1% 3.3% 1.4% 7.2% 2.3% 1.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 1

2 4) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Flake s job performance? Q4: FLAKEPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 20.4% 18.0% 28.7% 17.2% 19.7% 14.7% 21.7% 21.0% 20.4% 18.1% Somewhat Disapprove 20.7% 17.9% 37.6% 35.8% 29.8% 30.0% 26.6% 23.7% 29.2% 25.3% Strongly Approve 6.5% 6.9% 6.3% 8.8% 2.0% 7.1% 8.2% 10.3% 7.1% 7.8% Strongly Disapprove 44.6% 33.1% 4.4% 33.0% 26.9% 36.6% 40.6% 39.6% 30.2% 44.1% Uncertain 7.9% 24.2% 23.0% 5.3% 21.6% 11.6% 2.9% 5.4% 13.1% 4.7% 5) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Governor Ducey s job performance? 2

3 Q5: DUCEYPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 18.8% 36.1% 13.0% 29.9% 36.4% 20.7% 23.7% 22.4% 25.3% 23.8% Somewhat Disapprove 15.3% 14.4% 34.8% 18.3% 15.9% 24.2% 15.5% 13.0% 19.1% 15.5% Strongly Approve 30.9% 13.9% 26.5% 26.1% 5.4% 24.8% 36.0% 33.1% 24.8% 29.7% Strongly Disapprove 28.0% 17.6% 7.7% 21.1% 27.7% 18.4% 23.2% 26.2% 21.3% 25.5% Uncertain 7.0% 18.0% 18.0% 4.6% 14.5% 11.8% 1.6% 5.3% 9.5% 5.4% 6) If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Doug Ducey and Democrat David Garcia, who would you vote for? Q6: DUCEYVSGARCIA Democrat David Garcia 42.2% 34.4% 33.6% 39.0% 50.9% 35.2% 37.0% 41.2% 40.3% 39.3% Republican Doug Ducey 52.9% 50.9% 41.2% 55.2% 37.6% 54.7% 58.9% 54.3% 49.8% 56.5% Uncertain 4.9% 14.7% 25.2% 5.8% 11.4% 10.1% 4.1% 4.5% 9.8% 4.2% 3

4 7) If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a decision, which candidate are you leaning towards? Q7: DUCEYVSGARCIA2 N/A 95.1% 85.3% 74.8% 94.2% 88.6% 89.9% 95.9% 95.5% 90.2% 95.8% Democrat David Garcia 0.3% 3.2% 4.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% Republican Doug Ducey 0.4% 0.0% 5.5% 2.6% 0.0% 4.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 2.0% Uncertain 4.2% 11.6% 15.0% 2.6% 11.4% 4.8% 2.7% 2.8% 7.4% 1.9% 8) If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally, who would you vote for? 4

5 Q8: SINEMAVSMCSALLY Democrat Kyrsten Sinema 46.8% 51.4% 40.1% 44.4% 55.4% 35.5% 46.1% 51.4% 46.7% 45.2% Republican Martha McSally 47.0% 34.2% 25.2% 52.7% 28.4% 54.4% 51.5% 45.9% 44.9% 49.5% Uncertain 6.1% 14.4% 34.8% 2.9% 16.2% 10.1% 2.4% 2.7% 8.4% 5.3% 9) If the election for Senate were held today and you had to make a decision, which candidate are you leaning towards? Q9: SINEMAVSMCSALLY2 N/A 93.9% 85.6% 65.2% 97.1% 83.8% 89.9% 97.6% 97.3% 91.6% 94.7% Democrat Kyrsten Sinema 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Republican Martha McSally 0.0% 3.2% 6.9% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% Uncertain 6.1% 11.2% 26.8% 2.5% 14.3% 9.4% 1.7% 2.4% 6.9% 5.2% 5

6 The following questions are for demographic purposes: 1) Are you registered to vote in Arizona? 2) How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Arizona General Election in November? 10) What is your party affiliation? 6

7 11) What is your political ideology? 12) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background? 13) What race do you identify yourself as? 7

8 14) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? 15) What is the highest level of education you have completed? 16) How old are you? 8

9 17) What is your gender? 9