October 31, 2018 POTUS RADIO. Clifford Young. President, Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos 1

Transcription

1 October 31, 2018 POTUS RADIO Clifford Young President, Ipsos Public Affairs 2018 Ipsos 1

2 POTUS Radio CORE POLITICAL 2018 Ipsos 2

3 IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS Core Political Data These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for date October 17-23, 2018 For the survey, a sample of including ages 3,867 Americans 2,062 All Likely Voters 924 Likely Voters: Democrats 844 Likely Voters: Republicans 231 Likely Voters: Independents 18+ w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e 2018 Ipsos 3

4 IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS Core Political Data The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points All Adults All Likely Voters Likely Voters: Democrats Likely Voters: Republicans Likely Voters: Independents For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix Ipsos 4

5 Main Problems Election Results In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Healthcare 20% Immigration Economy and jobs 15% 15% Morality 10% Crime 7% Education Terrorism 6% 6% Environment 5% War / foreign conflicts 3% Energy issues 1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 2018 Ipsos 5

6 Approval by Demographic Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Approve 100% 90% 80% 70% 83% 90% 4/8-4/12, /3-10/9, % 50% 40% 30% 47% 41% 56% 45% 52% 47% 43% 48% 38% 36% 50% 47% 48% 46% 47% 48% 46% 45% 40% 41% 40% 41% 43% 44% 37% 37% 32% 32% 20% 10% 0% 18% 9% 14% 17% Ipsos poll conducted 4/8-4/12, 2017 among 1,843 US adults and 10/17-10/23, 2018 among 3,867 adults 2018 Ipsos 6

7 JAN 20-24, 2017 FEB 3-7, 2017 FEB 17-21, 2017 MARCH 3-7, 2017 MARCH 17-21, 2017 MARCH 31-APRIL 4, 2017 APRIL 21-25, 2017 MAY 5-9, 2017 MAY 19-23, 2017 JUNE 2-6, 2017 JUNE 16-20, 2017 JUNE 30-JULY 4, 2017 JULY 14-18, 2017 JULY 28- AUG 1,2017 AUG 11-15, 2017 AUG 25-29, 2017 SEPT 8-12, 2017 SEPT 22-26, 2017 OCT 6-10, 2017 OCT 20-24,2017 NOV 3-7, 2017 NOV 17-21, 2017 DEC 1-5, 2017 DEC 15-19, 2017 DEC 29, JAN 2, 2018 JAN 12-16, 2018 JAN 26-30, 2018 FEB 9-13, 2018 MARCH 2-6, 2018 MARCH 16-20, 2018 MARCH 30-APRIL 3, 2018 APRIL 13-17, 2018 APRIL 27 - MAY 1 MAY 11-15, 2018 MAY 25-29, 2018 JUNE 8-12, 2018 JUNE 22-26,2018 JULY 6-10, 2018 JULY 20-24, 2018 AUGUST 3-7, 2018 AUGUST 22-28, 2018 SEPT 5-11, 2018 SEPT 19-25,2018 OCTOBER 3-9, 2018 OCTOBER 17-23, 2018 ALL ADULT AMERICANS Weekly Approval 70% 60% 53% 50% 40% 30% 41% 20% 10% 0% 2018 Ipsos 7

8 ALL ADULT AMERICANS Approval Attributes Do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don t know TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE The US economy 24% 12% 12% 9% 7% 26% 9% 48% 43% US foreign policy 19% 12% 9% 8% 8% 33% 10% 40% 49% Healthcare reform 15% 12% 11% 9% 7% 36% 10% 39% 51% Employment and jobs 25% 12% 13% 9% 8% 23% 9% 50% 40% Dealing with Congress 17% 12% 10% 10% 8% 33% 10% 39% 50% Dealing with ISIS / ISIL 23% 11% 12% 8% 7% 27% 12% 46% 42% International trade 20% 12% 10% 9% 8% 32% 10% 42% 48% Taxation 18% 12% 11% 9% 8% 32% 10% 41% 49% Corruption 17% 11% 10% 9% 7% 36% 11% 37% 52% The environment 15% 12% 11% 9% 6% 37% 11% 37% 52% Immigration 23% 11% 7% 7% 6% 37% 8% 42% 50% The way he treats people like me 16% 11% 9% 8% 6% 40% 9% 36% 55% The effort he is making to unify the 19% 11% 10% 8% 6% 38% 9% 39% 52% country Russia 16% 11% 10% 9% 6% 36% 12% 37% 51% 2018 Ipsos 8

9 2018 Generic Congressional Ballot Question Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? All Adults All Likely Voters Likely Voters: Democrat Likely Voters: Republican Likely Voters: Independent Democratic candidate 40% 49% 93% 4% 32% Republican candidate 32% 42% 4% 91% 27% Candidate from another political party 4% 4% 1% 1% 28% Will not/do not plan to vote 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% Don t know / Refused 11% 5% 3% 3% 12% 2018 Ipsos 9

10 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 2018 Midterm Election Outcomes Current House Breakdown Predicted House Breakdown Republicans Democrats Vacancies

11 SENATE 2018 Midterm Election Outcomes Current Senate Breakdown Predicted Senate Breakdown Republicans Democrats

12 POTUS Radio MIDTERM STATE POLLS 2018 Ipsos 12

13 IPSOS/REUTERS/UVA CENTER FOR POLITICS STATE RELEASE Arizona Races Senate Ballot Generic Congressional Ballot Kyrsten Sinema (D) Martha McSally (R) 46% 48% Governor Ballot Democratic candidate 45% 50% Trump Approval Republican candidate David Garcia (D) Doug Ducey (R) 37% 57% Approve 54% 2018 Ipsos 13

14 IPSOS/REUTERS/UVA CENTER FOR POLITICS STATE RELEASE Florida Races Senate Ballot Generic Congressional Ballot Bill Nelson (D) Rick Scott (R) 49% 44% Governor Ballot Democratic candidate 48% 45% Trump Approval Republican candidate Andrew Gillum (D) Ron DeSantis (R) 50% 44% Approve 45% 2018 Ipsos 14

15 IPSOS/REUTERS/UVA CENTER FOR POLITICS STATE RELEASE Kansas Races Generic Congressional Ballot Governor Ballot Laura Kelly (D) Kris Kobach (R) 43% 41% Democratic candidate 41% 50% Trump Approval Republican candidate Approve 53% 2018 Ipsos 15

16 POTUS Radio VIEWS ON IMMIGRATION POLICY 2018 Ipsos 16

17 Many believe that the government has tried to make society more ethnically diverse through its immigration policies Total Agree Total Republican Democrat Independent In the last 20 years, the U.S. government has deliberately tried to make American society more ethnically diverse through its immigration policy. Source: Ipsos Poll, September 18-20, 2018 among 2,011 U.S. adults 2018 Ipsos 17

18 But a majority also believe that the government is hiding the true cost of immigration. Total Agree Total Republican Democrat Independent The government is hiding the true cost of immigration to taxpayers and society. Source: Ipsos Poll, September 18-20, 2018 among 2,011 U.S. adults 2018 Ipsos 18

19 4 in 10 Americans believe that those who have spoken out in opposition to immigration have been treated unfairly. Total Treated Unfairly Total Republican Democrat Independent Politicians, media outlets and others in the U.S. who have spoken out in opposition to immigration have been Source: Ipsos Poll, September 18-20, 2018 among 2,011 U.S. adults 2018 Ipsos 19

20 Clifford Young President, Ipsos US Public Affairs Cliff Young is President of Ipsos Public Affairs in the United States and also leads Ipsos' global election and polling risk practice. He is a polling expert with specialties in social and public opinion trends, crisis management, corporate and institution reputation and elections. Cliff is a contributor to POTUS Radio and has served as an expert commentator on Fox News and NPR, among others. Cliff is also an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS and an instructor at both Columbia University SIPA and University of São Paulo where he teaches courses on public opinion and election forecasting. (MORE BIO INFO: Ipsos 20