Overall Survey. U.S. Senate Ballot Test. Campbell 30.91% Kennedy 50.31%

Transcription

1 LA U.S Senate & Congress Run-Off Election Survey Conducted 12/05-06/ U.S. Senate Respondents 650+ U.S. House 3 Respondents 600+ U.S. House 4 Respondents trafalgarstrategy.com Likely Run-Off Election Voters U.S. Senate Margin of Error: +/ U.S. House 3 Margin of Error: +/ U.S. House 4 Margin of Error: +/ Response Rate: 2.08% Confidence: 95% Response Distribution: 50% Overall Survey Facebook: The Trafalgar Group U.S. Senate Ballot Test Kennedy Lean 5.57% Total: 39.77% Kennedy Total: 55.88% Kennedy 50.31% 30.91% 4.34% Lean 8.86%

2 U.S. House 3 Ballot Test Higgins 44.51% Higgins Lean 4.63% 4.52% Angelle 36.61% Angelle Total: 46.34% Higgins Total: 49.14% Angelle Lean 9.77% U.S. House 4 Ballot Test Jones 26.31% Jones Lean 3.42% 3.24% Johnson 58.69% Johnson Lean 8.35% Johnson Total: 67.04% Jones Total: 29.73%

3 U.S. Senate Age Ranges % % % % % % U.S. Senate Gender Female 55.95% Male 44.05%

4 U.S. Senate Race/Ethnicity LaSno 1.54% Asian 0.54% Other 1.03% Black 24.57% White 72.32% U.S. Senate Party Affiliation Unaffiliated 15.65% Democrat 47.72% Republican 36.63%

5 U.S. Senate Congressional District 1 Kennedy Lean 7.30% 4.41% Kennedy 58.49% 23.14% Lean 6.66% U.S. Senate Congressional District % Kennedy Lean 2.76% Kennedy 31.30% 53.90% Lean 8.09%

6 U.S. Senate Congressional District 3 Kennedy Lean 5.41% 4.82% 21.77% Lean 8.27% Kennedy 59.73% U.S. Senate Congressional District 4 Kennedy Lean 5.83% 3.09% 32.74% Kennedy 50.31% Lean 8.03%

7 U.S. Senate Congressional District 5 Kennedy Lean 6.39% 4.48% 26.68% Kennedy 52.47% Lean 9.98% U.S. Senate Congressional District 6 Kennedy Lean 5.76% 5.41% 27.95% Kennedy 48.59% Lean 12.29%

8 U.S. House 3 Age Ranges % % % % % % U.S. House 3 Gender Female 53.09% Male 46.91%

9 U.S. House 3 Race/Ethnicity La?no 0.87% Asian 0.20% Other 0.95% Black 10.75% White 87.23% U.S. House 3 Party Affiliation Unaffiliated 15.61% Democrat 31.90% Republican 52.49%

10 U.S. House 3 Democrats Higgins Lean 4.48% 7.56% Higgins 28.62% Angelle 45.40% Angelle Lean 13.94% U.S. House 3 Republicans 2.31% Higgins Lean 4.13% Angelle 34.46% Higgins 53.09% Angelle Lean 6.01%

11 U.S. House 3 Unaffiliated Higgins Lean 6.63% 5.71% Angelle 25.81% Higgins 48.01% Angelle Lean 13.85%

12 U.S. House 4 Age Ranges % % % % % % U.S. House 4 Gender Male 40.54% Female 59.46%

13 U.S. House 4 Race/Ethnicity La?no 0.20% Asian 0.00% Other 0.94% Black 26.06% White 72.80% U.S. House 4 Party Affiliation Unaffiliated 12.50% Democrat 48.69% Republican 38.81%

14 Methodology Likely run-off election voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters based on election participation and registration date. Household ages and locations were extracted as well from this list. In excess of 110,000 households were called over the duration of the poll. Each household participant was asked to opt-in to the survey if they planned to vote in the 2016 run-off election. Using automated voice response technology allows each participant to hear the questions exactly the same way, from the same voice, spoken with the same tone and nuance. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a stratified process that insures approrpiate geographic representation. These calls were placed from 6:00pm to 8:30pm local time from Monday, December 5th though Tuesday, November 6th. Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the demographic breakdown of expected 2016 Louisiana run-off election participants. Final results are based on these weights in order to address non-response bias. For more information, please contact info@trf-grp.com.

15 U.S. SENATE APPENDIX CROSSTABS I Black White Latino Asian Other Democrat Republican Unaffiliated 34.11% 52.45% 28.15% 28.04% 30.16% 26.52% 72.37% 16.40% 42.99% 24.15% 46.05% 50.22% 6.82% 28.45% Lean 6.74% 6.40% 9.79% 11.31% 6.75% 9.09% 8.84% 8.73% 11.07% 18.55% 9.45% 8.85% 8.55% 9.61% Kennedy 50.65% 32.29% 52.46% 51.15% 55.13% 52.46% 12.07% 63.67% 42.83% 48.60% 36.64% 32.98% 72.58% 51.04% Kennedy Lean 2.82% 5.31% 3.73% 5.44% 3.59% 8.04% 1.71% 7.09% 0.00% 0.00% 2.53% 3.78% 8.54% 4.10% 5.68% 3.54% 5.87% 4.07% 4.36% 3.90% 5.01% 4.10% 3.11% 8.70% 5.33% 4.17% 3.52% 6.81% % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.96% 4.51% 9.44% 8.70% 8.07% 3.87% 5.81% 9.73% % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19.22% 8.19% 0.00% 7.68% 23.13% 12.18% 7.17% 15.88% % 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 15.34% 12.93% 32.76% 31.33% 8.51% 10.53% 15.98% 19.21% % 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 20.36% 21.39% 38.75% 24.99% 20.96% 19.52% 21.16% 27.83% % 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 15.47% 16.94% 0.00% 15.83% 15.80% 18.40% 15.67% 11.37% 62+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 21.65% 36.03% 19.05% 11.48% 23.53% 35.51% 34.21% 15.97% U.S. House % 13.79% 11.24% 18.63% 17.18% 16.63% 7.27% 18.46% 27.74% 5.07% 29.94% 13.52% 18.70% 16.59% U.S. House % 29.95% 15.10% 12.56% 13.86% 13.19% 34.71% 9.46% 23.20% 32.93% 22.77% 22.25% 7.22% 18.37% U.S. House % 14.13% 20.09% 19.56% 18.41% 17.54% 8.31% 21.63% 9.91% 9.76% 16.10% 12.41% 25.43% 17.99% U.S. House % 16.54% 13.86% 17.01% 15.99% 22.14% 19.04% 18.07% 2.31% 0.00% 16.30% 18.32% 19.02% 14.34% U.S. House % 13.74% 18.08% 14.93% 18.88% 15.72% 18.44% 15.01% 21.69% 29.15% 9.60% 17.99% 12.99% 16.83% U.S. House % 11.85% 21.62% 17.31% 15.69% 14.78% 12.22% 17.37% 15.14% 23.09% 5.29% 15.50% 16.65% 15.88% Male 50.91% 51.16% 49.99% 47.58% 41.39% 36.87% 41.81% 44.49% 56.66% 51.66% 44.43% 40.42% 44.67% 53.69% Female 49.09% 48.84% 50.01% 52.42% 58.61% 63.13% 58.19% 55.51% 43.34% 48.34% 55.57% 59.58% 55.33% 46.31% Black 35.60% 43.24% 27.16% 23.36% 23.31% 16.64% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 44.75% 1.05% 18.12% White 59% 54.20% 67.36% 72.22% 75.16% 81.49% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 52.95% 96.28% 75.26% Latino 3% 0.00% 3.63% 2.78% 0.00% 0.92% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 1.04% 1.56% 3.02% Asian 1% 0.38% 1.22% 0.63% 0.52% 0.19% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0.38% 0.16% 1.93% Other 1.52% 2.19% 0.63% 1.01% 1.00% 0.76% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0.88% 0.96% 1.68% Democrat 33.58% 53.20% 36.19% 43.48% 53.87% 52.99% 86.91% 34.94% 32.19% 33.37% 40.71% 100% 0% 0% Republican 38.73% 24.05% 42.16% 36.19% 35.22% 39.19% 1.56% 48.77% 37.13% 10.60% 33.89% 0% 100% 0% Unaffiliated 27.69% 22.75% 21.65% 20.33% 10.91% 7.82% 11.53% 16.28% 30.68% 56.03% 25.39% 0% 0% 100%

16 Lean Kennedy U.S. SENATE APPENDIX CROSSTABS II Kennedy Lean Male Female U.S. House 1 U.S. House 2 U.S. House 3 U.S. House 4 U.S. House 5 U.S. House 6 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29.29% 32.19% 23.14% 53.90% 21.77% 32.74% 26.68% 27.95% Lean 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 8.67% 9.00% 6.66% 8.09% 8.27% 8.03% 9.98% 12.29% Kennedy 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 53.00% 48.20% 58.49% 31.30% 59.73% 50.31% 52.47% 48.59% Kennedy Lean 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 5.10% 5.95% 7.30% 2.76% 5.41% 5.83% 6.39% 5.76% Unaffiliated 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 3.94% 4.66% 4.41% 3.94% 4.82% 3.09% 4.48% 5.41% % 4.18% 5.53% 2.78% 7.19% 6.35% 4.82% 4.54% 9.93% 5.11% 4.98% 4.15% 4.33% % 7.90% 7.01% 10.41% 8.91% 12.68% 9.54% 9.47% 20.28% 8.55% 10.06% 9.40% 8.10% % 15.34% 14.47% 9.29% 18.78% 15.75% 12.41% 9.82% 12.99% 15.45% 10.71% 15.71% 18.79% % 27.34% 21.78% 20.91% 20.06% 23.13% 20.07% 25.10% 16.67% 23.21% 20.29% 20.02% 23.21% % 12.43% 17.86% 10.51% 16.36% 15.32% 17.08% 17.62% 14.00% 16.62% 14.52% 19.26% 16.00% % 32.81% 33.34% 46.10% 28.70% 26.76% 36.08% 33.45% 26.13% 31.07% 39.43% 31.46% 29.57% U.S. House % 11.95% 18.48% 20.83% 16.14% 16.26% 15.61% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% U.S. House % 14.75% 10.04% 8.01% 14.64% 16.33% 15.99% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% U.S. House % 16.86% 21.44% 17.54% 20.03% 19.32% 17.06% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% U.S. House % 16.28% 17.95% 18.78% 12.78% 16.52% 19.08% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% U.S. House % 18.00% 16.66% 18.32% 16.49% 15.32% 16.49% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% U.S. House % 22.17% 15.43% 16.52% 19.91% 16.25% 15.77% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Male 41.74% 43.14% 46.41% 40.31% 39.92% 100% 0% 45.05% 44.58% 47.14% 40.54% 42.24% 44.80% Female 58.26% 56.86% 53.59% 59.69% 60.08% 0% 100% 54.95% 55.42% 52.86% 59.46% 57.76% 55.20% Black 57.53% 24.53% 5.90% 7.53% 28.33% 23.32% 25.56% 11.24% 52.86% 11.31% 26.06% 28.36% 18.80% White 38.37% 71.31% 91.52% 92.00% 68.22% 73.03% 71.76% 83.96% 42.37% 86.63% 72.80% 67.94% 78.62% Latino 2.14% 1.92% 1.31% 0.00% 1.10% 1.98% 1.19% 2.69% 2.21% 0.84% 0.20% 2.09% 1.46% Asian 0.42% 1.13% 0.52% 0.00% 1.08% 0.63% 0.47% 0.17% 1.10% 0.29% 0.00% 0.98% 0.78% Other 1.54% 1.10% 0.75% 0.47% 1.27% 1.04% 1.03% 1.95% 1.46% 0.92% 0.94% 0.62% 0.34% Democrat 77.52% 47.67% 31.29% 32.34% 45.83% 43.78% 50.82% 40.59% 65.79% 32.81% 48.69% 53.74% 46.29% Republican 8.08% 35.37% 52.84% 56.16% 29.66% 37.15% 36.23% 43.08% 16.39% 51.60% 38.81% 29.78% 38.16% Unaffiliated 14.40% 16.97% 15.87% 11.51% 24.52% 19.07% 12.95% 16.33% 17.81% 15.59% 12.50% 16.48% 15.55%

17 U.S. HOUSE 3 APPENDIX CROSSTABS I Black White Latino Asian Other Angelle 29.82% 33.71% 26.47% 42.66% 36.06% 39.34% 43.57% 35.62% 74.70% 0.00% 20.60% Angelle Lean 5.29% 10.25% 10.11% 9.96% 10.29% 9.74% 20.02% 8.25% 0.00% 32.16% 36.96% Higgins 56.53% 49.87% 55.95% 35.10% 47.17% 40.91% 19.22% 48.00% 25.30% 0.00% 35.49% Higgins Lean 0.00% 0.00% 4.94% 8.41% 1.31% 5.41% 5.55% 4.55% 0.00% 0.00% 6.95% 8.37% 6.17% 2.52% 3.87% 5.17% 4.59% 11.63% 3.59% 0.00% 67.84% 0.00% % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6.55% 4.77% 0.00% 0.00% 14.32% % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21.06% 6.74% 0.00% 67.84% 21.17% % 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 15.62% 16.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 7.60% 24.81% 74.70% 0.00% 19.56% % 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 21.48% 15.94% 0.00% 0.00% 31.38% 62+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 27.68% 31.69% 25.30% 32.16% 13.58% Male 50.20% 42.40% 64.02% 47.74% 44.82% 39.47% 46.51% 46.55% 74.70% 67.84% 54.81% Female 49.80% 57.60% 35.98% 52.26% 55.18% 60.53% 53.49% 53.45% 25.30% 32.16% 45.19% Black 14.10% 26.71% 10.71% 3.51% 13.99% 9.59% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% White 83% 69.34% 89.29% 92.91% 84.21% 89.08% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% Latino 0% 0.00% 0.00% 2.79% 0.00% 0.71% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% Asian 0% 1.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 2.72% 2.37% 0.00% 0.80% 1.80% 0.42% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Democrat 15.99% 26.19% 24.11% 30.11% 40.51% 36.69% 84.23% 25.95% 0.00% ###### 0.00% Republican 62.52% 36.52% 57.76% 50.38% 53.55% 53.62% 1.79% 58.24% ###### 0.00% 66.87% Unaffiliated 21.49% 37.29% 18.13% 19.50% 5.93% 9.69% 13.98% 15.81% 0.00% 0.00% 33.13%

18 U.S. HOUSE 3 APPENDIX CROSSTABS II Angelle Angelle Lean Higgins Higgins Lean Male Female Democrat Republican Unaffiliated Angelle 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33.93% 38.95% 45.40% 34.46% 25.81% Angelle Lean 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 10.47% 9.13% 13.94% 6.01% 13.85% Higgins 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 46.07% 43.10% 28.62% 53.09% 48.01% Higgins Lean 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 4.39% 4.84% 4.48% 4.13% 6.63% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 5.13% 3.97% 7.56% 2.31% 5.71% % 2.71% 6.35% 0.00% 9.26% 5.35% 4.69% 2.51% 5.95% 6.88% % 8.90% 9.50% 0.00% 11.58% 7.66% 9.20% 6.96% 5.90% 20.26% % 16.26% 19.73% 16.73% 8.76% 21.41% 10.63% 11.86% 17.26% 18.22% % 23.75% 18.37% 42.31% 19.97% 23.70% 22.93% 21.99% 22.35% 29.10% % 17.41% 17.51% 4.67% 18.89% 15.77% 17.16% 20.98% 16.84% 6.28% % 30.97% 28.53% 36.28% 31.53% 26.11% 35.38% 35.70% 31.69% 19.26% Male 43.50% 50.34% 48.57% 44.48% 53.34% 100% 0% 43.16% 45.20% 60.35% Female 56.50% 49.66% 51.43% 55.52% 46.66% 0% 100% 56.84% 54.80% 39.65% Black 12.80% 22.05% 4.65% 12.88% 27.70% 10.66% 10.83% 28.40% 0.37% 9.63% White 84.89% 73.70% 94.10% 85.70% 69.32% 86.56% 87.83% 70.98% 96.77% 88.36% Latino 1.77% 0.00% 0.49% 0.00% 0.00% 1.38% 0.41% 0.00% 1.65% 0.00% Asian 0.00% 0.65% 0.00% 0.00% 2.98% 0.29% 0.12% 0.62% 0.00% 0.00% Other 0.53% 3.59% 0.76% 1.42% 0.00% 1.11% 0.81% 0.00% 1.21% 2.01% Democrat 39.56% 45.52% 20.52% 30.83% 53.42% 29.34% 34.14% 100% 0% 0% Republican 49.43% 32.34% 62.64% 46.82% 26.86% 50.58% 54.20% 0% 100% 0% Unaffiliated 11.01% 22.14% 16.84% 22.35% 19.72% 20.08% 11.66% 0% 0% 100%

19 U.S. HOUSE 4 APPENDIX CROSSTABS I Black White Latino Asian Other Johnson 55.69% 39.02% 57.78% 56.80% 68.73% 61.59% 14.74% 74.70% N/A N/A 40.26% Johnson Lean 4.19% 15.09% 9.21% 7.18% 4.08% 9.10% 7.71% 8.71% N/A N/A 0.00% Jones 34.54% 35.33% 20.84% 30.54% 24.01% 23.12% 62.96% 12.94% N/A N/A 42.24% Jones Lean 5.58% 8.58% 3.58% 3.32% 0.00% 3.10% 9.23% 1.40% N/A N/A 0.00% 0.00% 1.98% 8.59% 2.16% 3.19% 3.09% 5.35% 2.26% N/A N/A 17.50% % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.93% 3.81% N/A N/A 12.38% % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14.53% 8.35% N/A N/A 17.50% % 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 12.00% 10.42% N/A N/A 0.00% % 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 25.13% 18.45% N/A N/A 27.36% % 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 11.47% 15.84% N/A N/A 0.00% 62+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 28.93% 43.13% N/A N/A 42.77% Male 49.04% 58.44% 47.18% 48.72% 26.70% 33.99% 36.37% 42.18% N/A N/A 31.20% Female 50.96% 41.56% 52.82% 51.28% 73.30% 66.01% 63.63% 57.82% N/A N/A 68.80% Black 41.49% 37.63% 29.19% 32.27% 20.59% 19.12% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% White 55.69% 60.39% 70.81% 66.20% 79.41% 79.65% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% Latino N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% Asian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 2.82% 1.98% 0.00% 1.53% 0.00% 1.23% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Democrat 34.14% 52.11% 51.27% 47.04% 37.33% 53.99% 91.63% 33.64% N/A N/A 28.25% Republican 50.91% 16.22% 40.14% 39.48% 46.29% 39.58% 0.00% 52.75% N/A N/A 35.29% Unaffiliated 14.95% 31.67% 8.59% 13.49% 16.38% 6.43% 8.37% 13.61% N/A N/A 36.47%

20 U.S. HOUSE 4 APPENDIX CROSSTABS II Johnson Johnson Lean Jones Jones Lean Male Female Democrat Republican Unaffiliated Johnson 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 60.23% 57.63% 36.21% 87.14% 57.85% Johnson Lean 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 8.65% 8.14% 8.16% 5.79% 17.02% Jones 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 22.74% 28.74% 44.95% 4.70% 20.77% Jones Lean 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 4.48% 2.70% 6.26% 0.70% 0.80% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 3.90% 2.79% 4.42% 1.66% 3.56% % 2.50% 6.54% 8.13% 0.00% 6.03% 4.27% 3.49% 6.54% 5.96% % 18.19% 13.52% 25.24% 6.14% 14.51% 7.03% 10.77% 4.20% 25.50% % 11.82% 8.49% 11.22% 28.38% 12.47% 9.52% 11.28% 11.08% 7.36% % 17.45% 23.55% 19.71% 13.54% 24.38% 17.50% 19.60% 20.64% 21.89% % 7.09% 13.25% 0.00% 14.30% 9.56% 17.90% 11.13% 17.32% 19.02% % 42.95% 34.65% 35.70% 37.64% 33.06% 43.77% 43.72% 40.22% 20.27% Male 41.61% 42.01% 35.04% 53.10% 48.85% 100% 0% 37.11% 42.85% 46.76% Female 58.39% 57.99% 64.96% 46.90% 51.15% 0% 100% 62.89% 57.15% 53.24% Black 6.55% 24.06% 62.37% 70.28% 43.06% 23.37% 27.89% 49.04% 0.00% 17.44% White 92.67% 75.94% 35.80% 29.72% 50.80% 75.75% 70.80% 50.30% 98.97% 79.24% Latino N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Asian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Other 0.78% 0.00% 1.83% 0.00% 6.14% 0.88% 1.32% 0.66% 1.03% 3.32% Democrat 30.05% 47.60% 83.19% 89.09% 66.38% 44.57% 51.50% 100% 0% 0% Republican 57.63% 26.93% 6.94% 7.98% 19.88% 41.01% 37.30% 0% 100% 0% Unaffiliated 12.32% 25.47% 9.87% 2.93% 13.74% 14.42% 11.19% 0% 0% 100%