Overall Survey. U.S. Senate Ballot Test. Campbell 27.08% Kennedy 48.13%
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1 LA U.S Senate & Congress Run-Off Election Survey Conducted 11/14-17/ U.S. Senate Respondents 600+ U.S. House 3 Respondents 600+ U.S. House 4 Respondents trafalgarstrategy.com Likely Run-Off Election Voters Margin of Error: +/ Response Rate: 2.51% Confidence: 95% Response Distribution: 50% Overall Survey Facebook: The Trafalgar Group U.S. Senate Ballot Test Lean 10.20% Total: 35.26% Total: 58.33% 48.13% 27.08% Undecided 6.40% Lean 8.18% Page 1 of 7
2 U.S. House 3 Ballot Test Undecided 13.55% Higgins Lean 8.43% Angelle 33.17% Higgins 41.46% Angelle Total: 42.26% Higgins Total: 49.89% Angelle Lean 9.09% U.S. House 4 Ballot Test Jones Lean 8.20% Undecided 13.39% Johnson 48.49% Jones 26.65% Johnson Total: 59.50% Jones Total: 34.85% Johnson Lean 11.01% Page 2 of 7
3 U.S. Senate Age Ranges % % % % % % U.S. Senate Gender Female 56.53% Male 43.47% Page 3 of 7
4 U.S. Senate Race/Ethnicity LaSno 1.67% Asian 0.50% Other 1.02% Black 25.76% White 71.06% U.S. Senate Party Affiliation Unaffiliated 15.59% Republican 34.27% Democrat 50.15% Page 4 of 7
5 U.S. Senate Congressional District 1 Undecided 5.81% 15.71% Lean 10.62% Lean 7.96% 59.89% U.S. Senate Congressional District 2 Undecided 9.44% Lean 7.06% 45.61% 29.55% Lean 8.34% Page 5 of 7
6 U.S. Senate Congressional District 3 Lean 16.43% Undecided 6.71% 19.90% Lean 6.79% 50.16% U.S. Senate Congressional District 4 Lean 7.12% Undecided 5.66% 28.36% 50.46% Lean 8.40% Page 6 of 7
7 U.S. Senate Congressional District 5 Undecided 7.16% Lean 11.52% 24.29% 48.63% Lean 8.42% U.S. Senate Congressional District 6 Lean 8.39% Undecided 3.47% 27.64% 51.19% Lean 9.31% Page 7 of 7
8 U.S. House 3 Age Ranges % % % % % % U.S. House 3 Gender Female 56.85% Male 43.15% Page 1 of 2
9 U.S. House 3 Race/Ethnicity LaCno 0.00% Asian 0.22% Other 0.66% Black 13.98% White 85.13% U.S. House 3 Party Affiliation Unaffiliated 15.52% Democrat 43.63% Republican 40.84% Page 2 of 2
10 U.S. House 4 Age Ranges % % % % % % U.S. House 4 Gender Female 52.05% Male 47.95% Page 1 of 3
11 U.S. House 4 Race/Ethnicity LaCno 1.47% Asian 0.69% Other 0.81% Black 30.15% White 66.87% U.S. House 4 Party Affiliation Unaffiliated 11.87% Democrat 52.47% Republican 35.66% Page 2 of 3
12 Methodology Likely run-off election voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters based on election participation and registration date. Household ages and locations were extracted as well from this list. In excess of 90,000 households were called over the duration of the poll. Each household participant was asked to opt-in to the survey if they planned to vote in the 2016 run-off election. Using automated voice response technology allows each participant to hear the questions exactly the same way, from the same voice, spoken with the same tone and nuance. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a stratified process that insures approrpiate geographic representation. These calls were placed from 6:00pm to 8:30pm local time from Monday, November 14th though Thursday, November 17th. Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the demographic breakdown of expected 2016 Louisiana run-off election participants. Final results are based on these weights in order to address non-response bias. For more information, please contact info@trf-grp.com. Page 3 of 3
13 U.S. SENATE APPENDIX CROSSTABS I Black White Latino Asian Other Democrat Republican Unaffiliated 32.91% 33.21% 20.66% 26.25% 30.86% 25.42% 60.95% 14.49% 26.00% 30.72% 49.40% 42.06% 6.44% 24.27% Lean 6.86% 10.10% 9.21% 6.03% 7.88% 8.80% 11.09% 6.58% 32.63% 19.07% 0.98% 9.79% 5.32% 9.30% 44.01% 39.72% 55.51% 52.26% 39.83% 50.07% 13.57% 61.44% 21.69% 35.14% 43.16% 32.20% 70.93% 49.26% Lean 9.06% 9.14% 6.94% 10.53% 13.49% 10.34% 4.14% 12.19% 19.69% 15.06% 6.46% 8.14% 13.47% 9.64% Undecided 7.16% 7.84% 7.68% 4.93% 7.94% 5.38% 10.25% 5.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.80% 3.84% 7.52% % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9.40% 4.45% 0.00% 0.00% 2.39% 4.82% 5.90% 7.49% % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14.97% 9.69% 8.81% 15.06% 18.46% 10.97% 8.65% 17.26% % 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 15.72% 13.34% 32.63% 0.00% 12.32% 10.25% 18.25% 17.99% % 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 17.07% 21.36% 7.05% 48.26% 41.42% 19.42% 20.69% 22.66% % 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 18.90% 15.29% 15.05% 28.78% 7.30% 18.19% 14.16% 14.29% 62+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 23.94% 35.86% 36.47% 7.90% 18.12% 36.35% 32.35% 20.30% U.S. House % 15.65% 14.10% 11.97% 14.87% 19.94% 2.82% 19.97% 26.00% 19.07% 18.99% 10.19% 20.57% 22.30% U.S. House % 24.97% 17.40% 16.12% 19.22% 13.46% 34.83% 9.83% 53.51% 0.00% 26.22% 24.45% 8.52% 12.44% U.S. House % 17.02% 18.59% 17.05% 19.02% 15.96% 9.63% 21.25% 0.00% 7.90% 11.53% 15.44% 21.15% 17.67% U.S. House % 17.79% 18.17% 16.28% 19.13% 17.85% 21.01% 16.89% 15.86% 24.77% 14.27% 18.78% 18.68% 13.66% U.S. House % 15.95% 15.88% 14.91% 13.97% 16.97% 17.49% 15.23% 0.00% 21.68% 16.65% 16.15% 15.51% 14.07% U.S. House % 8.62% 15.85% 23.66% 13.79% 15.82% 14.22% 16.82% 4.63% 26.58% 12.34% 15.00% 15.58% 19.86% Male 42.75% 56.27% 48.68% 43.55% 44.36% 36.42% 38.55% 45.90% 15.05% 51.35% 40.99% 41.04% 45.20% 47.49% Female 57.25% 43.73% 51.32% 56.45% 55.64% 63.58% 61.45% 54.10% 84.95% 48.65% 59.01% 58.96% 54.80% 52.51% Black 43.16% 34.58% 28.52% 21.59% 30.04% 18.99% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 43.78% 2.29% 19.37% White 56% 61.74% 66.77% 74.57% 67.06% 78.46% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 53.82% 95.00% 73.89% Latino 0% 1.32% 3.83% 0.58% 1.55% 1.87% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 1.61% 1.24% 2.78% Asian 0% 0.68% 0.00% 1.19% 0.89% 0.12% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0.04% 0.37% 2.27% Other 0.43% 1.68% 0.88% 2.07% 0.46% 0.57% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0.75% 1.10% 1.70% Democrat 43.13% 49.31% 36.20% 47.83% 56.30% 56.12% 85.23% 37.98% 48.48% 4.14% 37.00% 100% 0% 0% Republican 36.05% 26.56% 44.05% 34.82% 29.95% 34.13% 3.05% 45.81% 25.52% 25.44% 37.00% 0% 100% 0% Unaffiliated 20.82% 24.13% 19.75% 17.35% 13.75% 9.74% 11.72% 16.21% 26.00% 70.43% 26.00% 0% 0% 100%
14 Lean U.S. SENATE APPENDIX CROSSTABS II Lean Undecided Male Female U.S. House 1 U.S. House 2 U.S. House 3 U.S. House 4 U.S. House 5 U.S. House 6 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25.94% 27.96% 15.71% 45.61% 19.90% 28.36% 24.29% 27.64% Lean 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 7.38% 8.80% 7.96% 8.34% 6.79% 8.40% 8.42% 9.31% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 49.86% 46.80% 59.89% 29.55% 50.16% 50.46% 48.63% 51.19% Lean 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 12.16% 8.69% 10.62% 7.06% 16.43% 7.12% 11.52% 8.39% Unaffiliated 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 4.66% 7.74% 5.81% 9.44% 6.71% 5.66% 7.16% 3.47% % 4.70% 5.13% 4.98% 6.27% 5.52% 5.68% 3.62% 6.39% 8.26% 6.52% 4.87% 3.47% % 13.77% 9.20% 9.99% 13.66% 14.44% 8.63% 11.16% 16.27% 10.70% 11.06% 11.40% 6.03% % 15.99% 16.37% 9.65% 17.03% 15.90% 12.89% 12.80% 14.43% 14.88% 14.38% 14.45% 14.10% % 15.00% 22.10% 21.02% 15.68% 20.39% 20.33% 15.58% 19.18% 19.56% 18.47% 19.45% 30.19% % 15.62% 13.41% 21.44% 20.09% 16.54% 15.95% 15.42% 18.19% 17.37% 17.28% 14.51% 14.01% % 34.93% 33.79% 32.91% 27.27% 27.21% 36.53% 41.41% 25.54% 29.23% 32.30% 35.32% 32.21% U.S. House % 15.21% 19.46% 16.28% 14.20% 16.76% 14.77% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% U.S. House % 17.44% 10.51% 11.85% 25.24% 13.22% 20.12% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% U.S. House % 14.73% 18.49% 28.58% 18.60% 17.61% 17.84% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% U.S. House % 18.42% 18.81% 12.53% 15.86% 19.80% 16.52% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% U.S. House % 16.05% 15.77% 17.62% 17.44% 17.44% 14.20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% U.S. House % 18.15% 16.97% 13.13% 8.65% 15.18% 16.55% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Male 41.63% 39.19% 45.03% 51.82% 31.64% 100% 0% 46.59% 33.57% 43.15% 47.95% 48.57% 41.35% Female 58.37% 60.81% 54.97% 48.18% 68.36% 0% 100% 53.41% 66.43% 56.85% 52.05% 51.43% 58.65% Black 57.96% 34.91% 7.26% 10.46% 41.24% 22.84% 28.00% 4.65% 52.41% 13.98% 30.15% 28.86% 22.96% White 38.01% 57.16% 90.71% 84.94% 58.76% 75.03% 68.01% 90.73% 40.83% 85.13% 66.87% 69.36% 74.93% Latino 1.60% 6.64% 0.75% 3.21% 0.00% 0.58% 2.50% 2.77% 5.21% 0.00% 1.47% 0.00% 0.48% Asian 0.57% 1.17% 0.37% 0.74% 0.00% 0.59% 0.43% 0.61% 0.00% 0.22% 0.69% 0.70% 0.84% Other 1.85% 0.12% 0.91% 0.64% 0.00% 0.96% 1.06% 1.23% 1.56% 0.66% 0.81% 1.08% 0.79% Democrat 77.88% 59.99% 33.55% 40.03% 61.12% 47.34% 52.30% 32.69% 71.62% 43.63% 52.47% 51.89% 47.15% Republican 8.15% 22.29% 50.50% 45.24% 20.56% 35.63% 33.22% 45.08% 17.05% 40.84% 35.66% 34.06% 33.45% Unaffiliated 13.97% 17.72% 15.95% 14.74% 18.32% 17.03% 14.48% 22.23% 11.33% 15.52% 11.87% 14.05% 19.40%
15 U.S. HOUSE 3 APPENDIX CROSSTABS I Black White Latino Asian Other Angelle 35.37% 31.45% 31.33% 33.58% 32.05% 34.51% 32.97% 33.08% #DIV/0! 47.62% 44.86% Angelle Lean 11.47% 5.62% 6.37% 9.23% 7.03% 12.19% 13.40% 8.47% #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00% Higgins 39.51% 38.85% 38.87% 44.12% 49.20% 37.92% 18.82% 45.39% #DIV/0! 0.00% 28.85% Higgins Lean 7.52% 12.63% 12.67% 8.61% 2.23% 8.56% 7.21% 8.52% #DIV/0! 0.00% 26.29% Undecided 6.12% 11.44% 10.76% 4.46% 9.48% 6.82% 27.61% 4.54% #DIV/0! 52.38% 0.00% % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14.80% 7.11% #DIV/0! 0.00% 20.70% % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15.72% 9.98% #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00% % 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 19.51% 14.07% #DIV/0! 0.00% 26.29% % 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 7.73% 21.52% #DIV/0! 0.00% 24.85% % 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 18.79% 17.16% #DIV/0! 0.00% 20.01% 62+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 23.44% 30.15% #DIV/0! ###### 8.14% Male 45.25% 49.80% 41.61% 45.60% 40.69% 40.72% 35.53% 44.27% #DIV/0! 0.00% 73.71% Female 54.75% 50.20% 58.39% 54.40% 59.31% 59.28% 64.47% 55.73% #DIV/0! ###### 26.29% Black 25.05% 20.54% 18.33% 5.53% 15.13% 11.21% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% White 73% 79.46% 80.50% 93.63% 84.11% 87.84% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% Latino 0% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% Asian 0% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.76% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 1.66% 0.00% 1.17% 0.84% 0.76% 0.18% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
16 U.S. HOUSE 3 APPENDIX CROSSTABS II Angelle Angelle Lean Higgins Higgins Lean Undecided Male Female Angelle 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30.71% 35.04% Angelle Lean 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 8.60% 9.46% Higgins 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 47.68% 36.75% Higgins Lean 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 6.31% 10.05% Undecided 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 6.70% 8.71% % 10.43% 7.87% 7.37% 6.45% 8.66% 7.96% % 6.62% 10.02% 16.03% 15.61% 12.35% 9.45% % 10.43% 13.95% 22.36% 20.40% 14.35% 15.28% % 19.86% 20.82% 19.98% 11.13% 20.68% 18.72% % 13.44% 20.61% 4.60% 21.00% 16.38% 18.12% % 39.22% 26.73% 29.67% 25.42% 27.58% 30.48% Male 39.94% 40.84% 49.62% 32.27% 36.87% 100% 0% Female 60.06% 59.16% 50.38% 67.73% 63.13% 0% 100% Black 13.90% 20.61% 6.35% 11.95% 49.21% 11.51% 15.85% White 84.89% 79.39% 93.19% 85.99% 49.30% 87.36% 83.45% Latino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Asian 0.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.49% 0.00% 0.39% Other 0.89% 0.00% 0.46% 2.06% 0.00% 1.13% 0.31%
17 U.S. HOUSE 4 APPENDIX CROSSTABS I Black White Latino Asian Other Johnson 46.99% 37.07% 57.15% 52.08% 41.35% 50.62% 11.31% 65.48% 44.44% 39.19% 45.50% Johnson Lean 3.19% 16.51% 6.41% 9.53% 14.26% 11.87% 8.01% 11.64% 55.56% 0.00% 0.00% Jones 36.35% 22.13% 24.22% 26.26% 32.98% 24.17% 55.23% 13.89% 0.00% 60.81% 35.38% Jones Lean 8.99% 11.73% 5.55% 6.11% 7.53% 9.56% 18.18% 3.83% 0.00% 0.00% 19.12% Undecided 4.48% 12.57% 6.67% 6.02% 3.87% 3.77% 7.27% 5.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10.76% 4.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13.04% 8.50% 55.56% 60.81% 25.10% % 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 16.88% 13.63% 0.00% 0.00% 21.25% % 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 18.96% 17.87% 44.44% 0.00% 19.12% % 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 19.87% 16.47% 0.00% 39.19% 0.00% 62+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 20.50% 38.64% 0.00% 0.00% 34.53% Male 59.75% 55.43% 53.19% 58.75% 48.01% 34.48% 48.12% 48.50% 0.00% ###### 39.58% Female 40.25% 44.57% 46.81% 41.25% 51.99% 65.52% 51.88% 51.50% ###### 0.00% 60.42% Black 49.82% 35.56% 35.39% 30.94% 34.67% 19.14% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% White 50% 51.40% 63.41% 64.68% 63.75% 80.00% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% Latino 0% 7.39% 0.00% 3.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% Asian 0% 3.81% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57% 0.00% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 0.00% 1.83% 1.19% 0.84% 0.00% 0.86% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
18 U.S. HOUSE 4 APPENDIX CROSSTABS II Johnson Johnson Lean Jones Jones Lean Undecided Male Female Johnson 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 49.62% 47.46% Johnson Lean 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 9.50% 12.41% Jones 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 28.12% 25.30% Jones Lean 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 8.47% 7.94% Undecided 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 4.29% 6.88% % 1.89% 8.89% 7.14% 5.18% 8.12% 5.04% % 16.57% 9.18% 15.81% 24.63% 12.78% 9.47% % 8.37% 13.06% 9.74% 17.00% 15.95% 12.93% % 15.98% 18.20% 13.76% 19.73% 22.63% 14.64% % 22.37% 21.38% 15.87% 11.87% 17.30% 17.26% % 34.81% 29.30% 37.67% 21.60% 23.23% 40.66% Male 49.06% 41.34% 50.60% 49.58% 36.48% 100% 0% Female 50.94% 58.66% 49.40% 50.42% 63.52% 0% 100% Black 7.03% 21.92% 62.49% 66.89% 38.86% 30.26% 30.06% White 90.30% 70.66% 34.86% 31.23% 61.14% 67.63% 66.18% Latino 1.35% 7.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.83% Asian 0.56% 0.00% 1.58% 0.00% 0.00% 1.44% 0.00% Other 0.76% 0.00% 1.07% 1.89% 0.00% 0.67% 0.94%
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