Five Days to Go: The Race Tightens October 28-November 1, 2016

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1 Five Days to Go: The Race Tightens October 28-November 1, 2016 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday November 3, :00 AM EDT As the race for president pulls into the home stretch, Hillary Clinton now has a three point lead nationally over Donald Trump down from the nine-point margin she had over Trump a couple of weeks ago but similar to where the race was at the beginning of October. While Clinton maintains strong support from women and white college graduates, Trump s support among men including white men has increased over the last couple of weeks, after dropping in mid-october. Most voters say their candidate choice will not be affected by new investigations into Clinton s or allegations of sexual assault by Trump. Where the Race Stands The race for president has tightened since mid-october; Hillary Clinton now leads Donald Trump by three points nationally. Just over two weeks ago, after the second debate and amidst accusations by women that Trump had made unwanted sexual advances towards them, Clinton s lead had expanded to 9 points, up from her 4 point lead in early October Vote for President: 4-Way Race (Among likely voters) Now 10/19/ /4/2016 9/2016 Hillary Clinton 45% 47% 45% 42% Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Undecided In a two-way match-up (without explicitly naming third party candidates), Clinton s margin is similar: she leads Trump by 3 points among leaned likely voters, down from an 11 point lead a couple of weeks ago Vote for President: 2-Way Race (Among likely voters) Now 10/19/ /4/2016 9/2016 Hillary Clinton 47% 51% 49% 46% Donald Trump Other Undecided

2 At this late date, few voters say they might change their minds. Is Your Mind Made Up? (Among Likely voters with a candidate choice) Total Clinton Voters Trump Voters Yes, mind made 92% 95% 95% No, might change Recent Controversies As the FBI begins to sift through s belonging to a top aide of Hillary Clinton, 62% of likely voters who have yet to go to the polls say the recently discovered s and the FBI s actions don t make a difference to their vote, though about a third say it makes them less likely to cast their vote for Clinton. Most Republicans say the FBI s actions make them less likely to vote for Clinton, while most Democrats and independents say it makes no difference. Does The FBI Reviewing the Recently Discovered s Make You? (Among likely voters who haven t voted yet) Total Reps Dems Inds More likely to vote for Clinton 5% 1% 11% 3% Less likely to vote for Clinton No difference Eight in 10 registered voters have heard something about the latest development in the Clinton controversy, including nearly half who have heard a lot about it. The allegations of unwanted sexual advances brought by a number of women against Donald Trump are also familiar to registered voters most have heard or read a lot about these allegations. Still, six in 10 likely voters who have yet to cast their ballot say the allegations don t make a difference in their vote, though four in 10 say they make them less likely to vote for him. Most Democrats (60%) are less likely to vote for Trump because of these allegations, while most Republicans (81%) and independents (59%) say the allegations make no difference. Do the Allegations About Trump Sexually Assaulting Women Make You? (Among likely voters who haven t voted yet) Total Reps Dems Inds More likely to vote for Trump 2% 4% 1% 1% Less likely to vote for Trump No difference Voter Enthusiasm Majorities of each candidate s supporters say they are at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting this year but slightly more Trump voters than Clinton voters are very enthused. 2

3 Enthusiastic about Voting in 2016 (Among likely voters) Total Clinton Voters Trump Voters 10/2012 Very 49% 51% 56% 62% Somewhat Not too Not at all Nevertheless, at 49% of likely voters overall, enthusiasm lags behind the excitement voters felt prior to the 2012 presidential election. Then, 62% said they were very enthusiastic about voting. Voter enthusiasm is down among older and younger voters, as well as white voters and black voters. Very Enthusiastic about Voting (among likely voters) 10/ /2012 Total 49% 62% Age % 47% Age % 67% Whites 49% 62% Blacks 63% 77% Men 50% 62% Women 48% 63% Just over half of each candidate s supporters say they strongly favor him or her. About one in four have reservations, and a similar percentage says theirs is a vote against the other candidate. Demographics The demographic contours of the race have not changed much. The gender gap remains notable this year: by large margins men support Trump and women support Clinton. In fact, Trump s support among men has increased in this poll after dropping in mid-october, amid allegations that he made unwanted sexual advances towards women. His support among men, and white men, is now similar to what it was in early October. Trump leads among white voters, including white men and whites without a college degree. Clinton has the support of white college graduates, and women regardless of educational attainment. Those living in households with a union member also back Clinton by a large margin. 3

4 2016 Vote for President (Among likely voters) Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Total 45% Men 38% Women 50% White voters 37% Black voters 83% White men 31% White women 42% Republicans 7% Democrats 83% Independents 38% White coll grad 48% White non-coll grad 30% Union households 53% This poll was conducted by telephone October 28-November 1, 2016 among a random sample of 1,561 adults nationwide, including 1,333 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. The sample of likely voters is modeled among registered voters (N=1,333), assigning each respondent a probability of voting based on their responses. The margin of error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus three points. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 4

5 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Five Days to Go: The Race Tightens October 28 November 1, 2016 Q1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Oct16b % % % % % A lot Some Not much No attention so far 3 * Don't know/no answer * 1 * * * Q2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 election for President this November -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President? Definitely vote Probably vote Probably not vote Definitely not vote Already Voted (Vol.) Don't know/no answer 1 1 * 1 1 Q3/Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton for President and Tim Kaine for Vice President, the Democrats, and Donald Trump for President and Mike Pence for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine or Donald Trump and Mike Pence? ASK IF DEPENDS/DON T KNOW: Well as of today, do you lean more toward Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine or more toward Donald Trump and Mike Pence? * LIKELY VOTERS INCLUDING LEANERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Oct16b % % % % % Clinton and Kaine Trump and Pence Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) 1 1 * 2 2 Don't know/ No answer

6 Q6/Q7. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, would you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? IF DEPENDS OR DON T KNOW: Well as of today, do you lean more toward Hillary Clinton, or more toward Donald Trump, or more towards Gary Johnson, or more towards Jill Stein? * LIKELY VOTERS INCLUDING LEANERS * Oct16b % % % % % Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other (Vol.) 1 1 * 2 2 Won't vote (Vol.) 1 1 * 1 1 Don't know/no answer Q8. Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election? * LIKELY VOTERS WITH CANDIDATE CHOICE * Total Clinton Vtrs Trump Vtrs Oct16b % % % % Mind made up Might change mind Don't know/no answer * * * 1 Q9. Would you describe your support for (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein) as strongly favoring (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein), or do you like (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein) but with reservations, or do you support (Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump/Gary Johnson/Jill Stein) because you dislike the other candidates? Total Clinton Vtrs Trump Vtrs Oct16b % % % % Strongly favor Like, but with reservations Dislike other candidates Don't know/no answer Q10. Thinking about the 2016 presidential election, overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting? Oct16b Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not enthusiastic at all Don't know/no answer

7 Q11 Q50 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE Q51. How much have you heard or read about the recent allegations by a number of women who have claimed that Donald Trump made unwanted sexual advances against them at various times over the last thirty years a lot, some, or not much? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % A lot Some Not much Nothing at all (vol.) * - * * Don't know/no answer * * * * Q52. HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE Q53. From what you've heard or read, do Donald Trump s alleged activities involving unwanted sexual advances against women make you more likely to vote for Donald Trump, less likely to vote for Donald Trump, or does it make no real difference in your vote? **** LIKELY VOTERS **** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % More likely Less likely No difference Don't know/no answer 1 1 * 1 Q54. HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE Q55. As you may know, the FBI says it has learned of additional s that appear to be relevant to the investigation into Hillary Clinton s private and server while Secretary of State. The FBI is reviewing these s to determine whether or not they contain classified information. How much have you heard or read about this - a lot, some, or not much? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** A lot Some Not much Nothing at all (vol.) * - * - Don't know/no answer 1 * 2 *

8 Q56. Do these actions by the FBI make you more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, or does it make no real difference in your vote? **** LIKELY VOTERS **** More likely Less likely No difference Don't know/no answer * 1 - * Unweighted Total Respondents 1,561 Weighted Total Registered Voters 1,333 1,222 Republican Registered Voters Democratic Registered Voters Independent Registered Voters Republican likely voters 296 Democratic likely voters 338 Independent likely voters 293