National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1917 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report April 12-17, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 63 6 % Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 242 3% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 7 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 7 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues % Health Care Issues 272 4% Senior s Issues 279 5% Women s Issues 97 5% Education Issues 53 8% Energy Issues 70 4% Other 8 4% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 373 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 47 25% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 47 25% Page 2

3 POL2 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL3_1 POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 92 0% Should not be done 3 6% Don t know/no opinion 30 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority 339 8% Not too important a priority 349 8% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 24 6% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 228 2% Should not be done 250 3% Don t know/no opinion 27 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 2 8 % Should not be done 46 2% Don t know/no opinion 75 9% Page 3

4 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 88 5% Don t know/no opinion 82 0% POL3_8 POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 285 5% Should not be done 3 7% Don t know/no opinion 46 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 344 8% Not too important a priority 303 6% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 08 6% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 298 6% Should not be done 274 4% Don t know/no opinion 36 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 37 7% Should not be done 39 2% Don t know/no opinion 8 6% Page 4

5 POL3_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional regulations on gun ownership A top priority 82 43% An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 23 2% Should not be done 342 8% Don t know/no opinion 0 6% POL4_1 POL4_4 POL4_5 POL5 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The FBI raiding the office and hotel room of President Trumps personal lawyer A lot % Some % Not much 2 3 % Nothing at all 3 3 6% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan announcing he will retire from Congress when his term ends A lot % Some % Not much 239 2% Nothing at all 320 7% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? A recent suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria A lot % Some % Not much 239 2% Nothing at all 246 3% As you may know, the FBI recently raided the office and hotel room of President Trumps longtime personal lawyer, Michael D. Cohen. The raid resulted in the seizing of business records, s and documents related to several topics, including a payment to adult lm star Stormy Daniels. Knowing this, do you believe the raid was appropriate or inappropriate? Very appropriate % Somewhat appropriate 308 6% Somewhat inappropriate 238 2% Very inappropriate % Don t Know/No Opinion 265 4% Page 5

6 POL6 As you may know, prosecutors obtained the search warrant authorizing the raid after receiving a referral from Robert Mueller, who the U.S. Department of Justice appointed as special counsel to investigate any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign.if President Trump decides to remove Robert Mueller as special counsel, would this be appropriate or inappropriate? Appropriate 48 25% Inappropriate % Don t Know/No Opinion % POL7_1 POL7_4 POL7_5 POL7_6 POL8_1 POL8_4 Generally, would you say President Trump represents the majority viewpoint of each of the following? Republicans in Washington Yes, represents majority viewpoint % No, does not represent majority viewpoint % Don t Know/No Opinion 39 20% Generally, would you say President Trump represents the majority viewpoint of each of the following? Republican voters Yes, represents majority viewpoint % No, does not represent majority viewpoint % Don t Know/No Opinion 360 9% Generally, would you say President Trump represents the majority viewpoint of each of the following? White Americans Yes, represents majority viewpoint % No, does not represent majority viewpoint % Don t Know/No Opinion % Generally, would you say President Trump represents the majority viewpoint of each of the following? All Americans Yes, represents majority viewpoint % No, does not represent majority viewpoint 06 55% Don t Know/No Opinion 3 4 6% Generally, who do you consider to be more: Conservative President Trump % Republicans in Congress 80 42% Don t Know/No Opinion % Generally, who do you consider to be more: In-touch with Republican voters President Trump % Republicans in Congress 69 36% Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 6

7 POL8_5 Generally, who do you consider to be more: In-touch with the American people President Trump % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion % POL8_6 POL9_1 POL9_4 POL10_1 POL10_4 POL10_5 POL10_6 Generally, who do you consider to be more: Aligned with your own principles President Trump % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion 95 50% Generally, do you believe Republicans in Congress: Support President Trump himself Yes % No % Don t Know/No Opinion 363 9% Generally, do you believe Republicans in Congress: Support President Trumps legislative agenda Yes % No % Don t Know/No Opinion % Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more Conservative President Trump % Republican leadership in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion % Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more Knowledgeable about the legislative process President Trump 255 3% Republican leadership in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion % Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more Knowledgeable about policy issues President Trump 354 8% Republican leadership in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion % Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more Looking out for the Republican Partys best interest President Trump % Republican leadership in Congress 92 48% Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 7

8 POL10_7 Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more In-touch with Republican voters President Trump % Republican leadership in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion % POL10_8 POL10_9 POL10_10 POL11 POL12_1 Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more Effective President Trump % Republican leadership in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion % Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more Trustful President Trump 45 24% Republican leadership in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion 00 52% Generally, do you consider President Trump or Republican leadership in Congress to be more Honest President Trump % Republican leadership in Congress % Don t Know/No Opinion % As you may know, U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan recently announced he will retire from Congress when his term ends. Based on what you know, what grade would you give Paul Ryans tenure as Speaker of the House of Representatives, which lasted from 2015 to the present? Please answer on a scale of A to F, with A being excellent, C being average and F being failing. A Excellent 92 0% B 325 7% C Average % D 99 0% F Failing 367 9% Don t Know/No Opinion 282 5% Do you believe Paul Ryan retiring from the Congress will help or hurt each of the following, or will it not have much impact either way? Republicans in Congress Help 229 2% Hurt % Not much impact either way 6 32% Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 8

9 POL12_4 Do you believe Paul Ryan retiring from the Congress will help or hurt each of the following, or will it not have much impact either way? President Trump Help 276 4% Hurt % Not much impact either way % Don t Know/No Opinion % POL12_5 POL13 POL14 POL15 Do you believe Paul Ryan retiring from the Congress will help or hurt each of the following, or will it not have much impact either way? The Republican party Help 242 3% Hurt % Not much impact either way % Don t Know/No Opinion % Assuming Republicans keep control of the U.S. House of Representatives, do you believe the next Republican Speaker should be: More conservative than Paul Ryan 356 9% More moderate than Paul Ryan % About the same amount % Don t Know/No Opinion 57 30% Assuming Republicans keep control of the U.S. House of Representatives, do you believe the next Republican Speaker should be: More supportive President Trumps policy agenda % Less supportive President Trumps policy agenda % About the same amount 250 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 4 2 % Assuming Republicans keep control of the U.S. House of Representatives, do you believe the next Republican Speaker should be: More supportive President Trump himself (meaning the % Presidents demeanor, behavior, etc.) Less supportive President himself (meaning the % Presidents demeanor, behavior, etc.) About the same amount 289 5% Don t Know/No Opinion % Page 9

10 POL16 As you may know, James Comey served as FBI director until he was red by President Trump last year.based on what you know, what grade would you give James Comeys tenure as FBI Director, which lasted from September 2013 to May 2017, when he was red by President Trump? Please answer on a scale of A to F, with A being excellent, C being average and F being failing. A Excellent 2 8 % B 324 7% C Average % D 8 9% F Failing 344 8% Don t Know/No Opinion 42 22% POL17 POL18 POL19 POL20a_1 How honest do you think former FBI Director James Comey is? Generally, who do you trust more to tell you the truth? Very honest 349 8% Somewhat honest % Somewhat dishonest 282 5% Very dishonest 349 8% Don t Know/No Opinion % Former FBI Director James Comey % President Trump % Don t Know/No Opinion % Which of the following comes closest to your view even if neither is exactly right? James Comey is primarily concerned with doing what s % best for the American people. James Comey is primarily concerned with his own % interests. Don t Know/No opinion % As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Knowing this, do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure Syria to stop using chemical weapons against its own people? Continue diplomatic efforts with Syria (N=1,005) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 5 % Strongly oppose 90 9% Don t Know / No Opinion 89 9% Page 10

11 POL20a_4 As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Knowing this, do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure Syria to stop using chemical weapons against its own people? Additional sanctions against the government and government leaders (N=1,005) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 62 6% Strongly oppose 50 5% Don t Know / No Opinion 9 9% POL20a_5 POL20a_6 POL20a_7 As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Knowing this, do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure Syria to stop using chemical weapons against its own people? Sanctions against countries that trade with Syria (N=1,005) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 84 8% Strongly oppose 6 6% Don t Know / No Opinion 86 8% As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Knowing this, do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure Syria to stop using chemical weapons against its own people? Air strikes against military targets and suspected chemical weapons sites in Syria (N=1,005) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 06 % Strongly oppose 53 5% Don t Know / No Opinion 75 7% As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Knowing this, do you support or oppose the following kinds of U.S. action to pressure Syria to stop using chemical weapons against its own people? Send in U.S. ground troops to take control of the country (N=1,005) Strongly support 0 0% Somewhat support 66 7% Somewhat oppose % Strongly oppose % Don t Know / No Opinion 60 6% Page 11

12 POL20b_1 As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Russia has long-supported the Syrian government, and has offered aid to help the Syrian president defeat rebels who are against his regime. Continue diplomatic efforts with Syria (N=912) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 3 2% Strongly oppose 92 0% Don t Know / No Opinion % POL20b_4 POL20b_5 POL20b_6 As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Russia has long-supported the Syrian government, and has offered aid to help the Syrian president defeat rebels who are against his regime. Additional sanctions against the government and government leaders (N=912) Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 72 8% Strongly oppose 33 4% Don t Know / No Opinion % As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Russia has long-supported the Syrian government, and has offered aid to help the Syrian president defeat rebels who are against his regime. Sanctions against countries that trade with Syria (N=912) Strongly support % Somewhat support 24 26% Somewhat oppose 83 9% Strongly oppose 50 5% Don t Know / No Opinion 2 23% As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Russia has long-supported the Syrian government, and has offered aid to help the Syrian president defeat rebels who are against his regime. Air strikes against military targets and suspected chemical weapons sites in Syria (N=912) Strongly support 25 28% Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 27 4% Strongly oppose 07 2% Don t Know / No Opinion 99 22% Page 12

13 POL20b_7 As you may know, the Syrian government allegedly unleashed a chemical weapons attack against its own people recently, one of at least 20 similar attacks since Russia has long-supported the Syrian government, and has offered aid to help the Syrian president defeat rebels who are against his regime. Send in U.S. ground troops to take control of the country (N=912) Strongly support 94 0% Somewhat support 36 5% Somewhat oppose 93 2 % Strongly oppose % Don t Know / No Opinion 85 20% POL21 indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 indpresapp_7 Based on what you know, do you support or oppose a bill of widespread changes to the tax system signed into law by President Trump? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 234 2% Strongly oppose % Don t Know/No Opinion % Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable 54 28% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 40 2 % Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable 49 26% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 75 39% Page 13

14 indpresapp_8 Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 320 7% indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 indpresapp_16 Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 66 3% Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 236 2% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 239 2% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 360 9% Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 349 8% Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 14

15 indpresapp_17 Favorability for: Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 15

16 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 803 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 297 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 274 4% PID/Gender: Ind Women 350 8% PID/Gender: Rep Men 326 7% PID/Gender: Rep Women 292 5% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 7 0 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 258 3% Continued on next page Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #180416, April, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k+ 24 3% xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 86 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 23 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 350 8% Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 340 8% N 725 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 63 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics 55 29% N 049 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian % N 9 5 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 9 6% Employ: Self-Employed 67 9% Employ: Homemaker 38 7% Employ: Student 68 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 8 9% Employ: Other 43 7% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 357 9% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 17

18 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 63 6 % Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 846 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 242 3% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 846 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care 272 4% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 279 5% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 97 5% #1 Issue: Education 53 8% #1 Issue: Energy 70 4% #1 Issue: Other 8 4% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 93 0% N 596 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney 53 28% 2012 Vote: Other 02 5% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 9 2 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 342 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 85 Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #180416, April, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 38 20% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 78 9% Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 85 Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 19

20 Morning Consult Page 20