Presidential Race November 2 Polls. Arizona Colorado Georgia Missouri. Hillary Clinton 43% 44% 42% 37% Donald Trump 47% 41% 51% 52%

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1 November 2, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Emerson College Polls: Colorado Flips to Clinton While Trump Takes Back Arizona and Puts Georgia and Missouri Out of Reach. Blunt/Kander tied in MO Senate Race. BOSTON, MA Emerson College polls released today show Donald Trump holding a substantial lead over Hillary Clinton in two of the four states polled (Georgia and Missouri) while he and Clinton have both flipped a state where they previously trailed in Arizona and Colorado. In Georgia, Trump is winning 51% to 42%, and in Missouri he has opened up a 15- point advantage (52% to 37%), almost doubling the 8- point margin he had in a mid- October Emerson poll. Trump has also flipped Arizona to his column. Clinton led 44% to 42% in the first week of October but now trails 47% to 43%. Georgia and Arizona are two of the traditionally Red states that Democrats were hoping to turn Blue this year. In just about the only good news for Clinton in this batch of polls, she has turned the tables in Colorado. She previously trailed the GOP businessman by 4 points (42% to 38%) but now has a 3- point edge, 44% to 41%. Presidential Race November 2 Polls Arizona Colorado Georgia Missouri Hillary Clinton 43% 44% 42% 37% Donald Trump 47% 41% 51% 52% Gary Johnson 2% 8% 2% 5% Jill Stein 2% 4% 3% 2% Unsure 5% 3% 2% 4% Sample n=700 n=750 n=650 n=650 MOE 3.6% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% In U.S. Senate races, Democrat Michael Bennet, the senior senator for Colorado, is outperforming Clinton and currently has a 5- point advantage over Darryl Glenn. A very tight race in Missouri finds GOP Senator Roy Blunt tied with Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander at 45% apiece. The two men have similar favorability numbers, net - 5 for Blunt and net - 6 for Kander. 1

2 In the other two Senate races polled, the GOP incumbent has seen a substantial lead melt away in recent weeks, though not enough to be overtaken. The 16- point margin that Arizona Senator John McCain held over Ann Kirkpatrick in September has dwindled to 6 points in the current poll (46% to 40%). Similarly, Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson s 16- point advantage over Democrat Jim Barksdale shrank to 8 points (48% to 40%). However, with just one week to Election Day, both seats will very likely remain in the Republican column. Arizona John McCain(R): 46% Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 40% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 9% Senate Races Colorado Michael Bennet (D): 47% Darryl Glenn (R): 42% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 5% McCain: 48% Fav/44% Unfav (+4) Kirkpatrick: 32% Fav/51% Unfav (- 19) Bennet: 47% Fav/38% Unfav (+9) Glenn: 41% Fav/35% Unfav (+6) Georgia Johnny Isakson (R): 48% Jim Barksdale (D): 40% Someone else: 5% Undecided: 7% Isakson: 47% Fav/ 37% Unfav (+10) Barksdale: 26% Fav/33% Unfav (- 7) Missouri Roy Blunt (R): 45% Kander(D): 45% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 4% Blunt: 41% Fav/46% Unfav (- 5) Kander: 38% Fav/44% Unfav (- 6) At the top of the GOP ticket, Trump is drawing strength from Independents. He is trouncing Clinton with this group: by 38 points in Missouri, 22 in Georgia, and 20 in Arizona. She has a slight 3- point edge in Colorado. Trump is also doing well with men, while largely negating the gender advantage with women that Clinton enjoys in many states. For example, in Missouri and Georgia, men prefer Trump to Clinton by 16 and 24 points, respectively. However, he also garners 52% of the female vote in Missouri compared to Clinton s 37%, and he only trails her by 6 points, 50% to 44% among women in Georgia. CALLER ID The Emerson College Missouri and Colorado polls were conducted October 28-31, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Arizona and Georgia polls were conducted October All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: Missouri n=650, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.8 percentage points; Colorado n=750 with an MOE of +/- 3.5 percentage points; Arizona n=700 with an MOE of +/- 3.6 percentage points; Georgia n=650, with an MOE of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Missouri data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, and party affiliation. Colorado data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. Arizona data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party, and race. Georgia data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party and district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party 2

3 breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at Tables Begin on Following Page 3

4 Arizona Table likely voter already voted, either by absentee ballot or early voting plan to vote before Election Day, either by absentee or early voting plan to vote on Election Day itself party Democrat Republican Independent /other gender male female prez Barack Obama Mitt Romney someone else

5 primary Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Ted Cruz Donald Trump John Kasich Marco Rubio Other not a registered voter Hillary Clinton Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Never heard of this public figure Donald Trump Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Undecided If you have never heard of this public figure 5

6 Kirkpatrick Favorable Unfavorable Undecided If you have never heard of this public figure McCain Favorable Unfavorable Undecided If you have never heard of this public figure Presidential Election Ballot Hillary Clinton Donald trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure Expectation Presdential Winner Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure

7 Senate Ballot Test Kirkpatrick McCain Someone Else Undecided Age Ethnicity White Black American Indian /Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian /Pacific Islander Hispanic /Latino Other unsure

8 Colorado Table Voting Intention Already Voted Voting Early Election Day Party Democrat Republican Independent Gender male female Ballot Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else

9 2016 primary Sanders Clinton Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Other No vote Clinton Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Trump Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of

10 Bennet favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Glenn favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Presidential Ballot Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure Presidential Expectation Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Unsure

11 Senate Ballot Bennet Glenn Someone Else Undecided Age Race white black American Indian Hawaiian Hispanic /Other

12 Education <HS HS Some College Associate Bachelor Post Grad Total Missing System 5.7 Total Phone Status Cell Phone Only Land Line only both Total Missing System 6.8 Total USC District

13 Missouri Table Voting Intention Already Voted Voting Early Election Day Party Democrat Republican Independent Gender male female Ballot Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else

14 2016 primary Sanders Clinton Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Other No vote Clinton Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Trump Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of

15 Blunt favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Kander favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Presidential Ballot Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure Presidential Expectation Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Unsure

16 Senate Ballot Kander Blunt Someone Else Undecided Age Race white black American Indian Asian Hispanic /Other refused Phone Status Cell Phone Only Land Line only both Total Missing System 3.5 Total

17 USC District Georgia Table Voting Intention Already Voted Plan to Vote early Election Day Party Democrat Republican Independent

18 Gender male female Ballot Barack Obama Mitt Romney Did not vote primary Sanders Clinton Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Other No vote Clinton Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of 18

19 Trump Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided Barksdale favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Isakson favorable unfavorable undecided never heard of Presidential Ballot Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure

20 Presidential Expectation Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Unsure Age Race white black American Indian Asian Hawaiian Hispanic /Other refused

21 Education <HS HS Some College Associate Bachelor Post Grad Total Missing System 3.4 Total Phone Status Cell Phone Only Land Line only both Total Missing System Total USC District

22 Region South North Central Senate Barksdale Isakson Someone Else Undecided

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