Subject: Pinellas County Congressional Election Survey

Transcription

1 th St. N., Suite 200 St. Petersburg, FL Phone: (727) Fax: (727) info@stpetepolls.org Website: Matt Florell, President Subject: Pinellas County Congressional Election Survey Date: June 9, 2016 Executive Summary: This poll of 746 Florida likely voters was conducted on June 9th, This poll used the registered voter lists supplied by the state of Florida as of May 3, The sample of voters that were contacted included random samples of registered voters within the boundaries of Florida s 13 th Congressional District. The issues surveyed included questions related to the 2016 general election. Methodology: The poll was conducted by an automated phone call polling system. The results were then weighted to account for proportional differences between the respondents' demographics and the demographics of the active voter population for Florida s 13 th Congressional District. The demographics used were: political party, race, age and gender. The sample of voters polled was chosen at random within the registered voter population within Florida s 13 th Congressional District. Only those voters that voted in a general election in 2012 or 2014, or the 2016 Presidential Preference Primary were included in the results. The scientific results shown for the questions below have a sample size of 746 and a 3.6% Margin of Error at a 95% confidence level.

2 Summary of Scientific Results: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Jolly? Favorable: 47.5% Unfavorable: 26.1% Unsure: 26.3% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Crist? Favorable: 43.4% Unfavorable: 45.9% Unsure: 10.7% If the general election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the candidates were Republican David Jolly and Democrat Charlie Crist, who would you vote for? Jolly: 44.3% Crist: 43.7% Unsure: 12.0% In the race for President, if the candidates were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who would you vote for? Trump: 37.3% Clinton: 46.5% Johnson: 9.3% Unsure: 6.8% In the 2012 Presidential election, did you vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Romney: 39.7% Obama: 53.0% Unsure: 7.3%

3 Detailed Results with Demographic Breakdowns for Each Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Jolly? Favorable: 47.5% Unfavorable: 26.1% Unsure: 26.3% Favorable: 48.3% Unfavorable: 25.9% Unsure: 25.9% Favorable: 37.7% Unfavorable: 34.3% Unsure: 28.0% Favorable: 64.1% Unfavorable: 16.3% Unsure: 19.7% Favorable: 38.5% Unfavorable: 26.2% Unsure: 35.2% Favorable: 52.0% Unfavorable: 25.0% Unsure: 22.9% Favorable: 23.5% Unfavorable: 29.6% Unsure: 46.9% Favorable: 57.9% Unfavorable: 15.8% Unsure: 26.3% Favorable: 37.5% Unfavorable: 31.2% Unsure: 31.2% Favorable: 31.6% Unfavorable: 42.1% Unsure: 26.3% Favorable: 53.9% Unfavorable: 26.5% Unsure: 19.6% Favorable: 43.7% Unfavorable: 25.4% Unsure: 30.9% Favorable: 36.7% Unfavorable: 36.7% Unsure: 26.7% Favorable: 39.4% Unfavorable: 25.0% Unsure: 35.6% Favorable: 47.4% Unfavorable: 29.9% Unsure: 22.7% Favorable: 58.2% Unfavorable: 18.3% Unsure: 23.6%

4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Crist? Favorable: 43.4% Unfavorable: 45.9% Unsure: 10.7% Favorable: 43.8% Unfavorable: 45.7% Unsure: 10.5% Favorable: 64.1% Unfavorable: 24.0% Unsure: 11.9% Favorable: 22.7% Unfavorable: 69.5% Unsure: 7.8% Favorable: 40.2% Unfavorable: 46.7% Unsure: 13.1% Favorable: 41.4% Unfavorable: 48.6% Unsure: 10.0% Favorable: 64.2% Unfavorable: 21.0% Unsure: 14.8% Favorable: 42.1% Unfavorable: 47.4% Unsure: 10.5% Favorable: 25.0% Unfavorable: 68.8% Unsure: 6.2% Favorable: 52.6% Unfavorable: 36.8% Unsure: 10.5% Favorable: 40.4% Unfavorable: 52.1% Unsure: 7.5% Favorable: 46.6% Unfavorable: 40.6% Unsure: 12.8% Favorable: 40.0% Unfavorable: 43.3% Unsure: 16.7% Favorable: 34.4% Unfavorable: 48.8% Unsure: 16.9% Favorable: 45.7% Unfavorable: 44.8% Unsure: 9.5% Favorable: 48.6% Unfavorable: 45.2% Unsure: 6.2%

5 If the general election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the candidates were Republican David Jolly and Democrat Charlie Crist, who would you vote for? Jolly: 44.3% Crist: 43.7% Unsure: 12.0% Jolly: 44.8% Crist: 43.6% Unsure: 11.7% Jolly: 21.3% Crist: 66.0% Unsure: 12.8% Jolly: 72.5% Crist: 18.6% Unsure: 8.8% Jolly: 41.0% Crist: 43.4% Unsure: 15.6% Jolly: 48.4% Crist: 39.8% Unsure: 11.8% Jolly: 13.6% Crist: 76.5% Unsure: 9.9% Jolly: 63.2% Crist: 31.6% Unsure: 5.3% Jolly: 50.0% Crist: 31.2% Unsure: 18.8% Jolly: 36.8% Crist: 47.4% Unsure: 15.8% Jolly: 51.5% Crist: 37.7% Unsure: 10.8% Jolly: 39.4% Crist: 48.3% Unsure: 12.3% Jolly: 26.7% Crist: 56.7% Unsure: 16.7% Jolly: 45.0% Crist: 38.1% Unsure: 16.9% Jolly: 39.7% Crist: 48.6% Unsure: 11.8% Jolly: 55.8% Crist: 37.5% Unsure: 6.7%

6 In the race for President, if the candidates were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who would you vote for? Trump: 37.3% Clinton: 46.5% Johnson: 9.3% Unsure: 6.8% Trump: 37.5% Clinton: 46.6% Johnson: 9.0% Unsure: 6.8% Trump: 13.4% Clinton: 75.7% Johnson: 5.8% Unsure: 5.2% Trump: 64.4% Clinton: 16.9% Johnson: 10.5% Unsure: 8.1% Trump: 37.7% Clinton: 40.2% Johnson: 13.9% Unsure: 8.2% Trump: 41.7% Clinton: 41.1% Johnson: 9.5% Unsure: 7.7% Trump: 3.7% Clinton: 87.7% Johnson: 6.2% Unsure: 2.5% Trump: 47.4% Clinton: 36.8% Johnson: 5.3% Unsure: 10.5% Trump: 37.5% Clinton: 56.2% Johnson: 6.2% Unsure: 0% Trump: 36.8% Clinton: 52.6% Johnson: 10.5% Unsure: 0% Trump: 43.1% Clinton: 41.9% Johnson: 9.6% Unsure: 5.4% Trump: 33.1% Clinton: 50.5% Johnson: 8.5% Unsure: 8.0% Trump: 26.7% Clinton: 50.0% Johnson: 16.7% Unsure: 6.7% Trump: 38.8% Clinton: 41.9% Johnson: 13.1% Unsure: 6.2% Trump: 33.3% Clinton: 51.7% Johnson: 8.3% Unsure: 6.6% Trump: 45.2% Clinton: 41.3% Johnson: 5.8% Unsure: 7.7%

7 In the 2012 Presidential election, did you vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Romney: 39.7% Obama: 53.0% Unsure: 7.3% Romney: 39.9% Obama: 52.8% Unsure: 7.2% Romney: 12.2% Obama: 81.2% Unsure: 6.7% Romney: 71.2% Obama: 22.0% Unsure: 6.8% Romney: 39.3% Obama: 50.8% Unsure: 9.8% Romney: 43.7% Obama: 48.8% Unsure: 7.5% Romney: 9.9% Obama: 85.2% Unsure: 4.9% Romney: 57.9% Obama: 36.8% Unsure: 5.3% Romney: 43.8% Obama: 50.0% Unsure: 6.2% Romney: 26.3% Obama: 63.2% Unsure: 10.5% Romney: 44.9% Obama: 47.3% Unsure: 7.8% Romney: 36.0% Obama: 57.2% Unsure: 6.8% Romney: 30.0% Obama: 66.7% Unsure: 3.3% Romney: 41.9% Obama: 49.4% Unsure: 8.8% Romney: 34.5% Obama: 58.0% Unsure: 7.5% Romney: 49.0% Obama: 44.7% Unsure: 6.2%