THE BIG RED POLL The 2016 Kentucky Republican Caucus February 22-26, 2016 Dr. Joel Turner Director, WKU Social Science Research Center

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1 THE BIG RED POLL The 2016 Kentucky Republican Caucus February 22-26, 2016 Dr. Joel Turner Director, WKU Social Science Research Center

2 Presidential Race Executive Summary REPUBLICAN CAUCUS SURVEY The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 532 likely Republican Caucus participants in Kentucky between February 22-26, The sample consisted of registered Republicans in Kentucky, and likely participants were defined as those indicated a likelihood of participating in the caucus of at least a 7 on a 10 point scale. 68% of respondents were reached via land line, and 32% were reached via cell phone. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.25%. PRESIDENTIAL RACE According to the latest Big Red Poll, Donald Trump leads the Republican field for President among likely Kentucky Caucus participants with 35%. Trump s closest competitor, Sen. Marco Rubio, comes in at 22%, with 15% of likely caucus participants indicating that they are still undecided. In descending order, likely Kentucky Republican Caucus participants support: Donald Trump 35% Marco Rubio 22% Ted Cruz 15% Ben Carson 7% Johh Kasich 6% Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Undecided

3 BROAD IDEOLOGICAL APPEAL Respondents were asked to self-identify as moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative. 23% identified as moderate, 36% identified as somewhat conservative, and 39% identified as very conservative. Trump leads across all three categories, polling at 40% among moderates, 34% among those who identify as somewhat conservative, and 33% among those who identify as very conservative. Rubio polls in 2 nd place across each ideological category. FAVORABILITY RATINGS Respondents had a different take on the candidates when asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of each candidate. Trump finished third here, with Ben Carson leading the pack. Here are the results in descending order: Ben Carson Marco Rubio Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich 68% Favorable, 17% Unfavorable, 15% Not Sure 58% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable, 10% Not Sure 53% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable, 2% Not Sure 51% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable, 8% Not Sure 47% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable, 26% Not Sure CHOOSING A CANDIDATE Respondents were asked which of the following mattered most to them when choosing a candidate: experience, character, electability, shared religious values, common political ideology, telling it like it is, or something else. 26% indicated that character was the most important factor, and among that group Rubio was the runaway winner with 46% support. 22% indicated that a common ideology was most important, with Ted Cruz having the most support among those respondents (31%). 18% indicated that telling it like it is was the most important attribute, and Trump was the runaway winner in this category with 94% support. 13% thought experience was important, and Trump leads among this group at 44%. 9% indicated shared religious values, and 8 percent indicated something else, with Ted Cruz leading each of these categories (39% and 30% respectively). Perhaps most surprisingly, only 4% of respondents were concerned about electability. Votes in this category were evenly distributed among all candidates. FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT Respondents were asked whether they were content with, frustrated with, or angry at government. The general theme this question engendered was dissatisfaction, as 57% indicated frustration, 31% indicated anger, while only 5% indicated contentment. Trump is doing very well among those who indicate frustration (40%) and has a slight lead among those who are angry (27%). Support among those who are content is distributed pretty evenly between Kasich and Carson (29% each). IMPORTANT ISSUE Respondents were asked what they thought the most important issue facing the country was. As is usually the case, jobs and the economy topped the list (46%). 19% of respondents indicated terrorism, while 11% either government spending or the economy. Trump leads his competitors across all of these categories. He has 41% support among those expressing economic concerns, 40% among those who are concerned about immigration, 36% among those with terrorism

4 concerns, and 28% among those concerned about government spending. He outpaces his nearest competitor in the economic and immigration categories (Rubio and Cruz respectively) by a nearly 2 to 1 margin. He lead is within the margin of error in terrorism and spending categories (Rubio and Cruz respectively). PC BACKLASH The findings of this poll support the supposition that Trump is tapping into the frustration some have with a society they believe is too politically correct. 83% of respondents believed that most people in America were afraid to truly say what they think for fear of offending someone. Among this group, Trump leads with nearly 40%. MUSLIM BAN 62% of respondents support a temporary ban on non-us citizen Muslims from entering the country. Among this group, Trump leads with nearly 48%. IMMIGRANT CONCERNS 60% of those surveyed indicated that they believed immigrants were taking jobs away from U.S. citizens. Among this group, Trump lead with roughly 43%. EVANGELICALS 61% of respondents considered themselves to be born again, or evangelical, Christians. Among this group, Trump leads Rubio by 10 points (36%-26%). An additional 17% considered themselves to be Christian, but not necessarily evangelical. Among this group Trump leads his nearest competitor by a 2 to 1 margin. TEA PARTY 24% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party. Additionally, 47% of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the TEA Party. Trump has done well among both groups, as he leads his nearest competitor, Ben Carson, 31%-21% among self-described TEA Party members, and leads Rubio 41%-29% among those who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party. ABOUT THE WKU SSRC The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews. For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/wkussrc) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).

5 PRESIDENTIAL RACE If the Republican Caucus for President were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Ben Carson, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated] Gender Evangelical Ideology Income All Men Women Yes No NEC Mod SC VC <50 50< Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Carson Undecided Age Education HS Grad College Grad Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Carson Undecided FAVORABILITY Please indicate whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or no opinion on each of the following politicians [Names Rotated] Favorable Unfavorable Not Enough Info Ben Carson 68% 17% 15% Marco Rubio 58% 32% 10% Donald Trump 53% 45% 2% Ted Cruz 51% 41% 8% John Kasich 47% 27% 26% IDEOLOGY Do you consider yourself to be moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? Liberal 23% Moderate 36% Conservative 39% Not Sure 2% TEA PARTY 1 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party? Yes 24% No 76%

6 TEA PARTY 2 (If not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the TEA Party? Yes 47% No 30% Not Sure 23% MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE What issue matters most to you? Immigration reform? Jobs and the economy? Terrorism? Government spending? Or something else? Immigration 11% Jobs/Economy 46% Terrorism 19% Spending 11% CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS What matters most to you when choosing a candidate for President? Is it experience, character, electability, shared religious values, common political ideology, telling it like it is, or something else? Experience 13% Character 26% Electability 4% Shared Religious Views 9% Common Ideology 18% Telling it Like it is 22% Something Else 8% FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT Some people say they are basically content with the federal government, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel? Content 5% Frustrated 57% Angry 31% Not sure 7%

7 POLITICAL CORRECTNESS Do you believe that most people in America are afraid to say what they truly think for fear that someone might say that they are offended? Yes 83% No 12% Not sure 5% IMMIGRANTS Do you believe that immigrants take jobs away from American citizens? Yes 59% No 22% Not sure 19% MUSLIM BAN Do you support or oppose a temporary ban on Muslims who are not US citizens from entering the country? Support 62% Oppose 24% Not sure 14% GENDER What is your gender? Male 56% Female 44% EDUCATION What is the highest level of formal education you completed? Less Than High School 4% Some High School 2% High School Graduate/GED 25% Vocational/Technical School 12% Some College 19% College Degree 23% Post-Graduate Degree 13%

8 RACE Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else? White 90% African-American 3% Hispanic 5% Other 2% AGE What is your age? % % % % INCOME Is your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000; 50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more? Less than 25,000 8% 25,000 to <50,000 23% 50,000 to <75,000 26% 75,000 to <100,000 14% 100,000 or more 13% Refused 16% EVANGELICAL Would you describe yourself as an evangelical, or born again, Christian? Yes 61% No 15% Christian but not evangelical 17% Not Sure 7%