Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters

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Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: January 29 - February 2 Sample: 800 Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire 410 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 390 Likely

1 Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: January 29 - February 2 Sample: 800 Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire 410 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 390 Likely Republican Primary Voters Margin of Error: 4.9% for All Likely Voters 6.6% for Democratic Likely Voters 7.1% for Republican Likely Voters YouGov interviewed 989 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 801 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology, and political interest. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the 2014 American Community Survey. Data on voter registration was matched to this frame from the November 2012 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Landscape Survey. Data on voting behavior was matched to the frame from the 2008 and 2012 presidential primary exit polls. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and ideology. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. UMass Poll Directors/Fellows Brian F. Schaffner, Ph.D. Director schaffne@polsci.umass.edu Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. Associate Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu Tatishe Nteta, Ph.D. Associate Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu Mia Costa Research Fellow micosta@polsci.umass.edu Kaylee Johnson Research Fellow ktjohnson@polsci.umass.edu poll@polsci.umass.edu - 1

2 Likely Republican Primary Voters If the presidential primary election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Trump Rubio Kasich Cruz 9 9 Bush 6 8 Christie 5 5 Carson 3 4 Fiorina 3 3 Other 7 8 Not sure 10 3 Some people have not yet decided for sure who they will vote for. Is there any chance you might vote for someone other than [CANDIDATE NAME] on election day? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question Yes 48 No 52 What other candidates are you considering voting for? Asked of those who said they were not sure who they were voting for or who said they might vote for someone else (N = 191). Cruz 25 Bush 14 Christie 14 Rubio 12 Trump 11 Fiorina 10 Carson 9 Kasich 7 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 2

3 Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the nomination and become the Republican Party s candidate for president? Trump 50 Rubio 14 Cruz 11 Bush 6 Kasich 2 Carson 1 Christie 1 Fiorina 0 Not sure 16 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 3

4 Likely Democratic Primary Voters If the presidential primary election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Sanders Clinton Other 2 3 Not sure 9 5 Some people have not yet decided for sure who they will vote for. Is there any chance you might vote for someone other than [CANDIDATE NAME] on election day? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question Yes 28 No 72 Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the nomination and become the Democratic Party s candidate for president? Clinton 51 Sanders 36 Not sure 13 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 4

5 All Likely Primary Voters When did you decide who you would vote for in the presidential primary election? Asked only of those who responded with a candidate intention to first question All LVs Republican LVs Democratic LVs Just today 1 2 < 1 In the last three days Sometime last week During the last month Before that In deciding who you will vote for in the upcoming presidential primary election, which of the following is MOST important to you? All Republican Democratic My candidate... LVs LVs LVs...best represents my views on the issues has the best chance of winning the general election is a strong leader is honest and trustworthy has the right experience for the job There have been many campaign ads aired during the past few months. Which candidate would you say you has been criticized the most in these ads? All LVs Republican LVs Democratic LVs Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Chris Christie Jeb Bush John Kasich Bernie Sanders Not sure poll@polsci.umass.edu - 5

6 In thinking about the upcoming primary election, what issue is most important to your vote? All LVs Republican LVs Democratic LVs Economy/jobs Homeland security/terrorism Federal deficit/gov t spending Gov t ethics Immigration Healthcare Social issues Income inequality Education Environment/climate change Taxes Guns Other poll@polsci.umass.edu - 6

7 How would you rate the following candidates in terms of their honesty? Among all likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Chris Christie Jeb Bush John Kasich Among Republican likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Chris Christie Jeb Bush John Kasich Among Democratic likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very honest honest dishonest dishonest Not sure Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Chris Christie Jeb Bush John Kasich poll@polsci.umass.edu - 7

8 How would you rate the following candidates in terms of how qualified they are to be president? Among all likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Chris Christie Jeb Bush John Kasich Among Republican likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Chris Christie Jeb Bush John Kasich Among Democratic likely voters Very Somewhat Somewhat Very qualified qualified unqualified unqualified Not sure Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Chris Christie Jeb Bush John Kasich poll@polsci.umass.edu - 8

9 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Hillary Clinton All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters - 9

10 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Bernie Sanders All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters

11 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Donald Trump All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters

12 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Marco Rubio All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters

13 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Ted Cruz All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters

14 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Chris Christie All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters

15 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? Jeb Bush All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters

16 What one word would you use to describe each of the following individuals? John Kasich All Likely Primary Voters Likely Democratic Primary Voters Likely Republican Primary Voters

17 Sample Demographics Category All LVs Dem LVs Rep LVs Gender Male 47% 45% 49% Female 53% 55% 51% Age % 12% 5% % 18% 21% % 45% 53% % 24% 22% Education HS or less 22% 21% 23% Some college 16% 15% 17% College degree 38% 42% 35% Postgraduate 23% 22% 25% Party ID Democrat 33% 72% 2% Republican 34% 2% 61% Independent 32% 26% 37% Ideology Very Liberal 10% 22% 0% Liberal 19% 39% 2% Moderate 30% 33% 27% Conservative 32% 6% 52% Very Conservative 10% 1% 18% Income < $40k 21% 25% 17% $40 - $100k 56% 52% 60% > $100k 23% 23% 23% poll@polsci.umass.edu

Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters

Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: February 19 - February 25 Sample: 891 Registered Voters in Massachusetts 400 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 292 Likely Republican