Trump Has 2:1 Lead over Rubio and Cruz (Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 16%)

Transcription

1 P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 8, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell Trump Has 2:1 Lead over Rubio and Cruz (Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 16%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Although Donald Trump s 3:1 margin in Michigan has decreased since the Iowa Caucuses, he continues to lead by more than 2:1 over his closest rivals Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (20%) and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (16%) in the latest Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit poll conducted before the GOP Presidential debate Saturday night. The three leading candidates are followed by Dr. Ben Carson (9%), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (2%), and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2%). The IVR (Interactive Voice Response) automated survey of 330 likely March 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on and has a Margin of Error of + or 5.39% at the 95% level of confidence. Trump is leading by a wide margin over his fellow candidates in all demographics, while Rubio has overtaken Cruz to jump into second place. Trump is especially strong with voters 50 or older (43%) and with men (47%), Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said. The Iowa surge helped Rubio; the percentage of voters having a favorable impression of him went from 52% to 67% while Trump (58%) and (Cruz 51%) stayed about the same as in the last poll. This change in popularity also changed the trial ballot test where Rubio moved up 8% to 20%, Trump dropped 7% to 41%, Cruz stayed the same at 16%, Carson moved up 4% to 9%, and Bush dropped 3% to 2%. Just as the results in the Iowa caucuses influenced voter support in Michigan, we expect to see the results in New Hampshire to do the same thing, Mitchell said. The following data show the race between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz: By age: Trump (33%) leads with voters 18 to 49 followed by Rubio (20%) and Cruz (18%). Trump leads 44%-20%-22% over Rubio and Cruz with voters Trump leads 43%-23%-12% over Rubio and Cruz with voters

2 Trump leads among those 70 and older 43%-16%-14% Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 2 of 2 By gender: Trump leads with men 47%-16%-14%. Trump (36%) leads Rubio (24%) and Cruz (17%) with women. By area: In Wayne County outside Detroit, Trump (43%) leads Rubio (13%) and Cruz (20%) In Oakland, Trump leads Rubio and Cruz 48%-20%-10%. In Macomb, Trump leads 37%-26%-16%. In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Trump leads 35%-20%-10%. In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Trump leads 40%-30%-11%. In West Michigan, Trump leads at 35%. Rubio is at 20% and Cruz is at 23%. In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Trump leads 50%-13%-17%. Rubio was riding on a crest of positive press from his strong Iowa showing. However, his debate performance Saturday night may hurt him in New Hampshire, allowing some of the governors like Kasich, Bush, or Christie to move up. What happens in New Hampshire will impact Michigan, just as Iowa did. Trump has a strong lead in Michigan and New Hampshire and if he wins in the Granite State, he will likely stay on top here, Mitchell concluded. (The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll) -30-

3 Survey of the State of Michigan Likely March 2016 GOP Primary Election Voters Conducted January 25,2016 and Comparative Field Copy (N= LV s) Hi, we re conducting a survey of Michigan voters for TV and radio stations on the Presidential Race and other issues. 1. If you are a registered voter at the household we are calling please press 1. If you re not, press 2. Yes 100% No 0 2. Thinking about the November 2016 General Election for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 97% Probably Voting 2 Not Sure Yet 2 Definitely Not 0 3. Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 87% Probably Voting 7 Not Sure Yet 6 Definitely Not 0 4. In a Presidential Primary you can only vote for candidates in one political party. Next month, will you be voting in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary, the Republican Party Presidential Primary, or are you not sure? Democratic Primary 0% Republican Primary 100 Not Sure 0

4 Before presidential and other questions, five quick questions for statistical purposes: 5. What is your age? If you are: press 16% press press or older press If you are a male press 1 or a female press 2. Male 50% Female If you are white/caucasian press 1, African-American press 2, Hispanic press 3, Asian or something else press 4. White 97% Other 3 8. If you are a: Democrat or lean Democrat press 4% Republican or lean Republican press 86 Another party press 0 or, Independent press What area do you live in? If you live in the: City of Detroit press 1% Wayne County outside of Detroit 9 Oakland County 12 Macomb County 7 Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 14 Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid-Michigan 16 West Michigan 23 Northern Michigan/U.P Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement: I m mad as hell and I won t take it anymore! If you GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Strongly agree press 55% 38% Agree 27 82% 19 57% Disagree 7 10% 7 12% Strongly disagree 3 5 Not sure press 8 31 Now I m going to read you a few names. For each, please tell me if you have heard of that name. If you have heard of that name let me know if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you don t know the name, or don t know enough about them to say favorable or unfavorable, you can give me that answer too.

5 11. Ted Cruz. If you are not aware of Ted Cruz Press 1. Aware with a favorable impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5. GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Not Aware 1% 6% Favorable Unfavorable Aware/No Impression 8 7 Undecided Marco Rubio. If you are not aware of Marco Rubio Press 1. Aware with a favorable impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5. GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Not Aware 1% 4% Favorable Unfavorable Aware/No Impression 10 6 Undecided Donald Trump. If you are not aware of Donald Trump Press 1. Aware with a favorable impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5. GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Not Aware 3% 2% Favorable Unfavorable Aware/No Impression 3 3 Undecided If the Republican Party Primary was being held today and the race was between the six candidates who are above 3% in an average of national polls, who would you be voting for? I list the top six candidates in alphabetical order? If you would not be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, If you would be voting for Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Chris Christie press 4, Ted Cruz press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, someone else, press 8 if you are not sure press 9. GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Not voting in GOP 1% 1% Bush 5 2 Carson 5 9 Christie 5 2 Cruz Rubio Trump Someone else 3 2 Not sure 5 7

6 15. Who is your second choice? Again, I list the top six candidates in alphabetical order? If you would not be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, If you your second choice would be Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Chris Christie press 4, Ted Cruz press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, someone else press 8, if you are not sure press 9. GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Not voting in GOP 1% 0% Bush 7 9 Carson Christie 11 5 Cruz Rubio Trump Someone else 4 3 Not sure 7 11

7 N=330 Total Yes Total 298 Age % % % 70 or Older % Total 298 Gender Male % Female %

8 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP Bush Carson Christie Cruz Rubio Trump Total % 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3% Age % 6.1% 14.3% 0.0% 18.4% 20.4% 32.7% 0.0% 42.9% 25.9% 0.0% 19.1% 16.9% 13.0% % 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 21.7% 20.3% 43.5% % 0.0% 31.9% 23.7% 24.4% % 3.1% 8.3% 2.1% 11.5% 22.9% 42.7% 50.0% 42.9% 29.6% 33.3% 23.4% 37.3% 33.3% 70 or Older % 1.2% 8.3% 4.8% 14.3% 15.5% 42.9% 0.0% 14.3% 25.9% 66.7% 25.5% 22.0% 29.3% Total % 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3% Gender Male % 4.1% 7.4% 0.7% 14.2% 15.5% 46.6% 50.0% 85.7% 40.7% 16.7% 44.7% 39.0% 56.1% Female % 0.7% 10.7% 3.3% 17.3% 24.0% 36.0% 50.0% 14.3% 59.3% 83.3% 55.3% 61.0% 43.9%

9 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Someone Else Not Sure Total % 7.0% Age % 8.2% 0.0% 19.0% % 5.8% 0.0% 19.0% % 2.1% 9.5% 70 or Older % 13.1% 0.0% 52.4% Total % 7.0% Gender Male % 6.8% 47.6% Female % 7.3% 0.0% 52.4%

10 N=330 Total Yes Total 298 Race White % Other 9 2.7% Total 298 Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % Republican or Lean 284 Republican 86.1% Independent %

11 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP Bush Carson Christie Cruz Rubio Trump Total % 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3% Race White % 2.1% 9.0% 2.1% 15.9% 19.7% 41.2% 85.7% 96.3% 97.9% 96.6% 96.7% Other % 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 11.1% 22.2% 44.4% 0.0% 14.3% 3.7% 0.0% 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% Total % 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3% Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 0.0% 16.7% 8.3% 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 5 7.4% 16.7% 0.0% 3.4% 4.9% Republican or Lean Republican 0.4% 2.8% 9.4% 0.4% 17.3% 20.1% 39.8% 50.0% 88.9% 16.7% 93.6% 86.4% 82.1% Independent % 12.5% 9.4% 18.8% 50.0% 3.7% 66.7% 6.4% 10.2% 13.0%

12 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Someone Else Not Sure Total % 7.0% Race White % 7.3% Other 0 0 Total % 7.0% Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat 0 0 Republican or Lean 6 19 Republican 2.4% 7.5% 90.5% Independent % 6.3% 0.0% 9.5%

13 N=330 Total Yes Total 298 Area City of Detroit 2 0.6% Wayne County Outside of 31 Detroit 9.4% Oakland County % Macomb County % Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, 45 Thumb 13.6% Monroe, Washtenaw, 54 Lansing, Jackson, Mid- Michigan 16.4% West Michigan % Northern MIchigan/U.P %

14 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP Bush Carson Christie Cruz Rubio Trump Total % 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3% Area City of Detroit % Wayne County Outside of Detroit 6.7% 6.7% 20.0% 13.3% 43.3% 7.4% 33.3% 12.8% 6.8% 10.6% Oakland County % 2.5% 7.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 47.5% 0.0% 14.3% 11.1% 0.0% 8.5% 13.6% 15.4% Macomb County % 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.8% 26.3% 36.8% 0.0% 14.3% 3.7% 0.0% 6.4% 8.5% 5.7% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 2.5% 5.0% 17.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 35.0% 50.0% 28.6% 25.9% 0.0% 8.5% 13.6% 11.4% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% 2.1% 10.6% 29.8% 40.4% Michigan 0.0% 14.3% 7.4% 16.7% 10.6% 23.7% 15.4% West Michigan % 2.7% 10.8% 1.4% 23.0% 18.9% 35.1% 0.0% 28.6% 29.6% 16.7% 36.2% 23.7% 21.1% Northern MIchigan/U.P % 0.0% 8.7% 4.3% 17.4% 13.0% 50.0% % 33.3% 17.0% 10.2% 18.7%

15 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Someone Else Not Sure Total % 7.0% Area City of Detroit 0 0 Wayne County Outside of 0 3 Detroit 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 14.3% Oakland County % 7.5% 33.3% 14.3% Macomb County % 10.5% 0.0% 9.5% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, 2 2 Thumb 5.0% 5.0% 33.3% 9.5% Monroe, Washtenaw, 0 5 Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 0.0% 10.6% Michigan 0.0% 23.8% West Michigan % 5.4% 33.3% 19.0% Northern MIchigan/U.P % 4.3% 0.0% 9.5%

16 N=330 Total Yes Total 298 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP 2 0.7% Bush 7 2.3% Carson % Christie 6 2.0% Cruz % Rubio % Trump % Someone Else 6 2.0% Not Sure %

17 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP Bush Carson Christie Cruz Rubio Trump Total % 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3% Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP Bush % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Carson Christie % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cruz Rubio % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Trump Someone Else % 0.0% Not Sure % 0.0%

18 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Someone Else Not Sure Total % 7.0% Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP 0 0 Bush 0 0 Carson 0 0 Christie 0 0 Cruz 0 0 Rubio 0 0 Trump 0 0 Someone Else % 0.0% Not Sure % 0.0%

19 N=330 Total Yes Total 298 Trial Ballot Second Choice Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP 1 0.3% Bush % Carson % Christie % Cruz % Rubio % Trump % Someone Else 8 2.7% Not Sure %

20 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP Bush Carson Christie Cruz Rubio Trump Total % 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3% Trial Ballot Second Choice Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP % Bush % 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 16.0% 28.0% 24.0% 0.0% 42.9% 11.1% 0.0% 8.9% 11.9% 5.0% Carson % 2.4% 16.7% 19.0% 47.6% 11.1% 16.7% 15.6% 13.6% 16.5% Christie % 6.7% 6.7% 33.3% 46.7% 3.7% 16.7% 2.2% 8.5% 5.8% Cruz % 1.5% 10.6% 4.5% 0.0% 27.3% 53.0% 50.0% 14.3% 25.9% % 28.9% Rubio % 2.8% 6.9% 0.0% 29.2% 5.6% 45.8% 0.0% 28.6% 18.5% 0.0% 46.7% 6.8% 27.3% Trump % 3.0% 15.2% 0.0% 24.2% 33.3% 24.2% 0.0% 14.3% 18.5% 0.0% 17.8% 18.6% 6.6% Someone Else % 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 50.0% 3.7% 16.7% 2.2% 1.7% 3.3% Not Sure % 0.0% 9.7% 16.1% 25.8% 7.4% 0.0% 6.7% 8.5% 6.6%

21 N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Someone Else Not Sure Total % 7.0% Trial Ballot Second Choice Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP 0 0 Bush % 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Carson % 7.1% 0.0% 15.0% Christie 0 0 Cruz % 1.5% 0.0% 5.0% Rubio % 6.9% 33.3% 25.0% Trump 0 0 Someone Else 0 0 Not Sure % 35.5% 33.3% 55.0%

22 N=330 Total Cruz Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3% Age % 56.0% 30.0% 6.0% 4.0% 16.4% 11.8% 18.1% 15.5% 13.6% 15.4% % 62.9% 25.7% 4.3% 2.9% 21.5% 17.6% 28.4% 18.6% 13.6% 15.4% % 44.9% 40.8% 5.1% 3.1% 33.3% 35.3% 28.4% 41.2% 22.7% 23.1% 70 or Older % 45.3% 27.9% 12.8% 7.0% 28.8% 35.3% 25.2% 24.7% 50.0% 46.2% Total % 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3% Gender Male % 47.1% 38.6% 3.3% 3.9% 50.0% 64.7% 46.5% 60.8% 22.7% 46.2% Female % 55.0% 25.2% 11.3% 4.6% 50.0% 35.3% 53.5% 39.2% 77.3% 53.8%

23 N=330 Total Cruz Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3% Race White % 50.2% 32.2% 7.5% 4.4% 97.3% 95.5% 97.9% Other % 77.8% 22.2% 2.7% 0.0% 4.5% 2.1% Total % 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3% Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 33.3% 58.3% 3.6% 5.9% 2.6% 7.2% Republican or Lean Republican 5.8% 53.5% 30.4% 6.2% 4.2% 86.1% 88.2% 89.7% 81.4% 72.7% 84.6% Independent % 37.5% 34.4% 18.8% 6.3% 10.3% 5.9% 7.7% 11.3% 27.3% 15.4%

24 N=330 Total Cruz Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3% Area City of Detroit % 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% Wayne County Outside of Detroit 9.7% 61.3% 22.6% 3.2% 3.2% 9.4% 17.6% 12.3% 7.2% 4.5% 7.7% Oakland County % 42.5% 32.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.4% 23.5% 11.0% 13.4% 18.2% 15.4% Macomb County % 57.9% 21.1% 5.3% 5.3% 7.3% 11.8% 7.1% 4.1% 4.5% 7.7% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 2.4% 46.3% 34.1% 4.9% 12.2% 13.6% 5.9% 12.3% 14.4% 9.1% 38.5% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 2.0% 50.0% 34.0% 12.0% 2.0% Michigan 16.4% 5.9% 16.1% 17.5% 27.3% 7.7% West Michigan % 54.1% 35.1% 6.8% 1.4% 23.3% 11.8% 25.8% 26.8% 22.7% 7.7% Northern MIchigan/U.P % 46.8% 34.0% 6.4% 4.3% 17.0% 23.5% 14.2% 16.5% 13.6% 15.4%

25 N=330 Total Cruz Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3% Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP % 5 0.7% 6.3% 0.7% 0.0% Bush % 42.9% 42.9% 0.0% 14.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.0% 3.1% 0.0% 8.3% Carson % 63.0% 22.2% 7.4% 7.4% 9.1% 0.0% 11.2% 6.3% 9.1% 16.7% Christie % 50.0% 16.7% 33.3% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.1% 0.0% Cruz % 91.5% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.8% 12.5% 28.3% 1.0% 4.5% 0.0% Rubio % 52.5% 30.5% 10.2% 5.1% 19.8% 6.3% 20.4% 18.8% 27.3% 25.0% Trump % 34.1% 48.0% 4.9% 4.1% 41.3% 68.8% 27.6% 61.5% 27.3% 41.7% Someone Else % 6.3% Not Sure % 57.1% 9.5% 23.8% 4.8% 7.0% 6.3% 7.9% 2.1% 22.7% 8.3%

26 N=330 Total Cruz Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3% Trial Ballot Second Choice Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP % 6.3% Bush % 32.0% 56.0% 4.0% 8.0% 8.5% 0.0% 5.4% 14.7% 4.5% 16.7% Carson % 50.0% 38.1% 2.4% 2.4% 14.3% 18.8% 14.2% 16.8% 4.5% 8.3% Christie % 33.3% 53.3% 5.1% 12.5% 3.4% 8.4% Cruz % 68.2% 13.6% 9.1% 3.0% 22.5% 25.0% 30.4% 9.5% 27.3% 16.7% Rubio % 51.4% 29.2% 12.5% 0.0% 24.6% 31.3% 25.0% 22.1% 40.9% 0.0% Trump % 48.5% 30.3% 3.0% 15.2% 11.3% 6.3% 10.8% 10.5% 4.5% 41.7% Someone Else % 25.0% 62.5% 0.0% 12.5% 2.7% 0.0% 1.4% 5.3% 0.0% 8.3% Not Sure % 45.2% 38.7% 12.9% 3.2% 10.6% 0.0% 9.5% 12.6% 18.2% 8.3%

27 N=330 Total Rubio Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3% Age % 60.0% 22.0% % 30.8% 14.9% 18.0% 26.3% 0.0% % 72.5% 23.2% 1.4% 1.4% 21.5% 7.7% 24.8% 26.2% 5.3% 14.3% % 64.3% 20.4% 4.1% 4.1% 33.3% 53.8% 31.2% 32.8% 21.1% 57.1% 70 or Older % 69.4% 16.5% 10.6% 2.4% 28.8% 7.7% 29.2% 23.0% 47.4% 28.6% Total % 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3% Gender Male % 64.5% 25.0% 1.3% 2.6% 50.0% 76.9% 48.5% 62.3% 10.5% 57.1% Female % 69.3% 15.3% 11.3% 2.0% 50.0% 23.1% 51.5% 37.7% 89.5% 42.9%

28 N=330 Total Rubio Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3% Race White % 66.9% 20.5% 6.5% 2.4% 97.3% 84.6% 97.0% 98.4% Other % 66.7% 11.1% 2.7% 15.4% 3.0% 1.6% Total % 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3% Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 41.7% 33.3% 8.3% 8.3% 3.6% 7.7% 2.5% 6.6% 5.3% 14.3% Republican or Lean Republican 4.3% 67.4% 21.3% 5.0% 1.9% 86.1% 84.6% 86.1% 90.2% 68.4% 71.4% Independent % 71.9% 6.3% 15.6% 3.1% 10.3% 7.7% 11.4% 3.3% 26.3% 14.3%

29 N=330 Total Rubio Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3% Area City of Detroit % 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Wayne County Outside of Detroit 10.0% 76.7% 0.0% 3.3% 10.0% 9.4% 23.1% 11.4% 0.0% 5.3% 42.9% Oakland County % 57.5% 32.5% 5.0% 0.0% 12.4% 15.4% 11.4% 21.3% 10.5% 0.0% Macomb County % 78.9% 15.8% 5.3% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 7.4% 4.9% 5.3% 0.0% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 7.3% 58.5% 22.0% 4.9% 7.3% 13.6% 23.1% 11.9% 14.8% 10.5% 42.9% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 6.1% 71.4% 12.2% 8.2% 2.0% Michigan 16.4% 23.1% 17.3% 9.8% 21.1% 14.3% West Michigan % 66.2% 21.6% 9.5% 0.0% 23.3% 15.4% 24.3% 26.2% 36.8% 0.0% Northern MIchigan/U.P % 66.0% 29.8% 4.3% 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 15.3% 23.0% 10.5% 0.0%

30 N=330 Total Rubio Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3% Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP % 5 0.7% 9.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bush % 42.9% 42.9% 14.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 1.5% 4.9% 5.3% 0.0% Carson % 63.0% 14.8% 7.4% 7.4% 9.1% 18.2% 8.5% 6.6% 10.5% 33.3% Christie % 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Cruz % 76.6% 17.0% 4.3% 0.0% 15.8% 9.1% 17.9% 13.1% 10.5% 0.0% Rubio % 98.3% 0.0% 19.8% 9.1% 28.9% 0.0% Trump % 52.0% 33.3% 6.5% 3.3% 41.3% 54.5% 31.8% 67.2% 42.1% 66.7% Someone Else % 33.3% 66.7% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.6% Not Sure % 76.2% 4.8% 19.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 8.0% 1.6% 21.1% 0.0%

31 N=330 Total Rubio Name ID Yes Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3% Trial Ballot Second Choice Top 6 Republican Candidates Not Voting in GOP % 9.1% Bush % 60.0% 36.0% 8.5% 9.1% 7.6% 15.0% Carson % 66.7% 21.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.3% 36.4% 14.2% 15.0% 5.3% 0.0% Christie % 73.3% 13.3% 6.7% 6.7% 5.1% 0.0% 5.6% 3.3% 5.3% 16.7% Cruz % 66.7% 22.7% 7.6% 1.5% 22.5% 9.1% 22.3% 25.0% 26.3% 16.7% Rubio % 80.6% 8.3% 6.9% 2.8% 24.6% 9.1% 29.4% 10.0% 26.3% 33.3% Trump % 63.6% 27.3% 6.1% 3.0% 11.3% 0.0% 10.7% 15.0% 10.5% 16.7% Someone Else % 37.5% 25.0% 12.5% 12.5% 2.7% 9.1% 1.5% 3.3% 5.3% 16.7% Not Sure % 54.8% 25.8% 12.9% 0.0% 10.6% 18.2% 8.6% 13.3% 21.1% 0.0%