Florida Presidential Primary Survey. March 2016

Transcription

1 Florida Presidential Primary Survey

2 Methodology Sample Dates of Interviews Languages of Interviews Margin of Error 450 Republican Florida likely presidential primary voters March 2 nd - March 5th English, Spanish +/- 4.6 Percentage Points 2

3 ELECTORAL MOTIVATION

4 Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? % 5% 2% Wrong Track Right Direction Don't know/no answer 4

5 Which one of the following issues will be the MOST important in deciding your vote for President in November 2016? 45% 43% 4 35% 27% 25% 15% 5% 8% 7% 6% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% Jobs and the economy Terrorism Foreign Policy Healthcare Immigration Education Global Climate Change Same Sex Marriage Other Don't know/no answer 5

6 CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATINGS

7 Ted Cruz Very/Somewhat favorable opinion 21% 36% 57% Somewhat/Very unfavorable opinion 18% 17% 35% Do not recognize 2% No answer 6%

8 Donald Trump Very/Somewhat favorable opinion 27% 57% Somewhat/Very unfavorable opinion 15% 24% 39% No answer 4%

9 Marco Rubio Very/Somewhat favorable opinion 28% 34% 62% Somewhat/Very unfavorable opinion 18% 13% 31% Do not recognize 1% No answer 6%

10 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

11 If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in Florida were held today and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, whom would you support? 4 38% 35% 31% 25% 19% 15% 5% 4% 1% 7% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz John Kasich Other Don't know/no answer 11

12 If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in Florida were held today and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, whom would you support? BY GENDER Male Female Donald Trump 42% 35% Marco Rubio 29% 33% Ted Cruz 21% 18% John Kasich 4% 6% Don t know/no answer 4% 8% 12

13 Which candidate would be your 2 nd choice? 24% 25% 15% 15% 14% 17% 5% Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Donald Trump John Kasich Don't know/no answer 13

14 Who do you think has a better chance of getting elected president in November 2016? % 15% 5% 3% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 14

15 Who do you think has a better chance of getting elected president in November 2016? BY EDUCATION Male Female Donald Trump 61% 59% Marco Rubio 19% 15% Ted Cruz 13% 16% Don t know 3% 7% No answer 4% 3% 15

16 If he does not win the Florida Presidential Primary on March 15 th, do you believe that Marco Rubio should or should not suspend his campaign for President? 2% 6% Should suspend 33% 59% Should not suspend Don't know No answer 16

17 PERSONAL TRAITS

18 Who do you think is more honest and trustworthy? 35% 34% 25% 21% 15% 7% 8% 5% Marco Rubio Donald Trump Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 18

19 Who do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve as president? 4 39% 35% 26% 25% 25% 15% 5% 7% 3% Marco Rubio Donald Trump Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 19

20 Who do you think would do more to bring needed change to Washington? 6 55% % 18% 5% 1% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 20

21 Who do you think is closer to you on the issues? 39% 4 35% 32% 25% 21% 15% 4% 4% 5% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 21

22 Who do you think is closer to you on the issues? BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 27% 52% 36% Marco Rubio 35% 24% 35% Ted Cruz 27% 15% 23% Don t know 5% 3% 5% No answer 6% 6% 1% 22

23 Who do you trust most to handle the economy? 6 56% % 16% 3% 3% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 23

24 Who do you trust more to handle immigration issues? 45% 4 45% 35% 29% 25% 21% 15% 5% 4% 1% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 24

25 Who do you trust more to handle immigration issues? BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 38% 54% 43% Marco Rubio 31% 24% Ted Cruz 27% 16% 22% Don t know 3% 4% 3% No answer 1% 2% 2% 25

26 Who do you trust more to handle the threat of terrorism? 45% 4 45% 35% 25% 25% 21% 15% 5% 6% 3% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Donald Trump Don't know No answer 26

27 Who do you trust more to handle the threat of terrorism? BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 34% 5 47% Marco Rubio 32% 26% 21% Ted Cruz 23% 15% 24% Don t know 4% 6% No answer 1% 5% 2% 27

28 Who do you trust more to handle healthcare? 4 36% 35% 29% 25% 23% 15% 5% 7% 5% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer 28

29 Who do you trust more to handle healthcare? BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 29% 44% 35% Marco Rubio 29% 27% Ted Cruz 27% 16% 25% Don t know 6% 6% No answer 5% 7% 4% 29

30 REPUBLICAN U.S. SENATE PRIMARY

31 If the Republican primary for the US Senate seat from Florida were held today and the candidates were Carlos Beruff, Ron DeSantis, David Jolly, Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Todd Wilcox, for whom would you vote? 8 74% % 6% 5% 2% 7% Carlos Lopez- Cantera Ron DeSantis David Jolly Todd Wilcox Carlos Beruff Don't know No answer 31

32 POLICY SUPPORT

33 With regard to the current opening on the Supreme Court, after President Obama nominates someone do you believe the U.S. Senate should vote on President Obama s nominee to fill the position or should the Senate delay action on the vacancy until after the next president takes office? 8 72% % Republicans 2% Vote Delay Don't know 33

34 Donald Trump has proposed banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States for the time being. He says this would improve security against terrorism. Others say security would not be improved, and it s wrong to bar people from the United States because of their religion. What s your opinion would you support a ban on Muslims entering the United States or to you this would be the wrong thing to do? Strongly/Somewhat support 39% 18% 57% Somewhat/Strongly wrong thing to do 18% 17% 35% Do not recognize 5% No answer 3%

35 Do you approve or disapproved of President Obama s plan to visit Cuba this month? He d be the first sitting President to do so in 88 years. 59% % Approve Disapprove Don't know 7% 1% No answer Approve Disapprove Don't know No answer 35

36 Overall, do you support or oppose ending the so-called wet foot, dry foot policy, which allows Cuban refugees to stay in the U.S. if they reach U.S. soil? Strongly/Somewhat support 28% 23% 51% Somewhat/Strongly oppose 15% 25% 4 Don't know 7% No answer 2%

37 The United States territory of Puerto Rico has announced that it is close to defaulting on $72 billion worth of debt. Overall, do you support or oppose providing financial assistance to help Puerto Rico pay off its debt? Strongly/Somewhat support 18% 28% Somewhat/Strongly oppose 18% 44% 62% Don't know 8% No answer 2%

38 DEMOGRAPHICS

39 Gender 52% 52% 51% 5 49% 48% Republicans 48% 47% 46% Male Female 39

40 Age 4 35% 26% 31% 36% 25% Republicans 15% 7% 5%

41 What is the highest level of education that you have completed? 6 53% % Republican 13% 4% Some high school 1% High School Two-year Graduate/GED college or technical school graduate/some College graduate college/associate or higher degree/bachelor's Degree degree Don't or higher know/no answer 41

42 The media in Florida generally classifies people as Black, White, Hispanic, Asian or another race, which do you consider yourself to be? Republicans 4 2% 15% 3% Black White Hispanic Asian/Mixed Race/Other 42

43 Are you of Cuban or Hispanic descent? 85% Republicans 5 4 8% 7% Yes, Cuban Yes, Other Hispanic No 43

44 In what country were you born? % 5 Republicans 4 7% 2% 1% 1% United States Cuba Puerto Rico Central/South America, other Hispanic Other/No answer 44

45 In what country or countries were your parents and/or grandparents born? Republicans 1% 1% 2% 16% United States Cuba Puerto Rico Central/South America, other Hispanic Other/No answer 45

46 Language of Interview 94% Republicans % English Spanish 46

47 Region 25% 16% 17% 22% 25% 15% Republicans 5% Miami/South Florida South/Central Florida Tampa Bay Area Orlando, Central Florida North Florida/Panhandle 47

48 Florida Presidential Primary Survey For more information, please contact: Fernand R. Amandi Principal