Flash Poll of Cuban Americans. Reaction to President Obama s Change in U.S.-Cuba Policy

Transcription

1 Flash Poll of Cuban Americans Reaction to President Obama s Change in U.S.-Cuba Policy

2 2 Methodology Sample 400 Cuban American adults living in the United States Dates of Interviews December 17 th to December 18 th, 2014 Languages of Interviews Margin of Error English, Spanish +/- 4.9 percentage points

3 President Barack Obama 3

4 4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama? 100% 80% 60% 41% 55% 40% 20% 19% 22% 1% 3% 0% Very favorable opinion Somewhat favorable opinion Unfavorable opinion Do not recognize No answer

5 5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba Born in the U.S. 37% 51% 56% 7% 49% Favorable Unfavorable No answer

6 6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama? By Age 18 to 29 67% 33% 30 to 49 35% 65% Favorable 50 to 64 46% 46% 8% Unfavorable No Answer % 66% 12%

7 7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama? By Political Party Affiliation (Among registered voters) Democrat 73% 25% 2% Republican 6% 89% 5% Favorable Unfavorable No Answer Independent/Other 58% 38% 4%

8 8 How would you rate the job that President Barack Obama is doing, specifically with regard to United States policy towards Cuba? Excellent/Good 14% 19% 33% Mediocre/Poor 15% 45% 60% Don't know/no answer 7% 0% 20% 40% 60%

9 9 How would you rate the job that President Barack Obama is doing, specifically with regard to United States policy towards Cuba? By Political Party Affiliation (Among registered voters) Democrat Republican Independent/Other Favorable 68% 7% 44% Unfavorable 24% 91% 56% No answer 8% 2% -

10 Change in U.S.-Cuba Policy 10

11 11 Summary of President Obama s Announcement On December 17 th, 2014 President Obama announced that the United States would begin to normalize relations with Cuba for the first time since Normalizing relations with Cuba would mean: re-establishing an embassy in Havana; carrying out high-level exchanges and visits between the two governments; working with Cuba on issues like drug trafficking, environmental protection and human trafficking; easing travel restrictions; allowing greater banking ties; raising the level of remittances allowed to be sent to Cuban nationals; and allowing American travelers to import goods from Cuba.

12 12 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? 8% 48% 44% Agree Disagree Don t know/no answer

13 13 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba 38% 53% 9% Born in the U.S. 64% 33% 3% Agree Disagree Don t know/no answer

14 14 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? By Decade of Arrival (Among Cuban Americans born in Cuba) Before % 64% 7% After % 44% 11% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

15 15 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? By Age 18 to 29 53% 36% 11% 30 to 49 47% 45% 8% 50 to 64 58% 38% 4% % 67% 8% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

16 16 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? By Voter Registration Status Registered Voters 43% 49% 8% Non Voters 46% 45% 9% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

17 17 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? By Political Party Affiliation (Among registered voters) Democrat 73% 23% 4% Republican 11% 79% 10% Independent/Other 63% 27% 10% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

18 18 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? By State of Residence Living in Florida 35% 56% 9% Living in the rest of U.S. 61% 32% 7% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

19 19 Why do you agree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? It s time for a change/the embargo hasn t worked 38% To help the people in Cuba 23% Good for country relations 7% Other 9% No answer 23%

20 20 Why do you disagree with President Obama s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba? Should not negotiate with Communist dictatorship 24% It will benefit Castro s government 17% No human rights in Cuba 10% It s a betrayal of Cuban Americans 8% Won t change anything for the Cuban people 6% U.S. has nothing to gain 6% President Obama did not consult Congress 3% Other 12% No answer 14%

21 21 Do you think President Obama s announcement is good for the people on the island of Cuba or good for the United States? 40% 20% 0% 30% Good for the people in the island of Cuba 10% Good for the U.S. 21% Good for both 34% Good for neither 5% Don't know/no answer

22 22 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s decision to exchange Cuban spies for the release of 53 political prisoners and a U.S. intelligent asset who had been imprisoned in Cuba for 20 years? 17% 40% 43% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

23 23 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s decision to exchange Cuban spies for the release of 53 political prisoners and a U.S. intelligent asset who had been imprisoned in Cuba for 20 years? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba 38% 50% 12% Born in the U.S. 45% 21% 34% Agree Disagree Don t know/no answer

24 24 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s decision to exchange Cuban spies for the release of 53 political prisoners and a U.S. intelligent asset who had been imprisoned in Cuba for 20 years? By Decade of Arrival (Among Cuban Americans born in Cuba) Before % 59% 13% After % 43% 12% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

25 25 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s decision to exchange Cuban spies for the release of 53 political prisoners and a U.S. intelligent asset who had been imprisoned in Cuba for 20 years? By Age 18 to 29 63% 19% 18% 30 to 49 37% 41% 22% 50 to 64 43% 42% 15% % 60% 16% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

26 26 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s decision to exchange Cuban spies for the release of 53 political prisoners and a U.S. intelligent asset who had been imprisoned in Cuba for 20 years? By Political Party Affiliation (Among registered voters) Democrat 59% 19% 22% Republican 16% 71% 13% Independent/Other 60% 29% 11% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

27 27 Do you agree or disagree with President Obama s decision to exchange Cuban spies for the release of 53 political prisoners and a U.S. intelligent asset who had been imprisoned in Cuba for 20 years? By State of Residence Living in Florida 32% 51% 17% Living in the rest of U.S. 53% 27% 20% Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer

28 28 Do you favor or oppose easing restrictions on travel between the United States and Cuba? 14% 39% 47% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

29 29 Do you favor or oppose easing restrictions on travel between the United States and Cuba? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba 45% 44% 11% Born in the U.S. 53% 26% 22% Favor Oppose Don t know/no answer

30 30 Do you favor or oppose easing restrictions on travel between the United States and Cuba? By Decade of Arrival (Among Cuban Americans born in Cuba) Before % 47% 8% After % 42% 12% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

31 31 Do you favor or oppose easing restrictions on travel between the United States and Cuba? By Political Party Affiliation (Among registered voters) Democrat 71% 22% 7% Republican 26% 56% 16% Independent/Other 72% 19% 9% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

32 32 Do you favor or oppose easing restrictions on travel between the United States and Cuba? By State of Residence Living in Florida 41% 45% 14% Living in the rest of U.S. 58% 29% 13% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

33 33 Now that travel restrictions are being lifted, do you plan on traveling to Cuba in the near future? 6% 29% 65% Yes No Don't know/no answer

34 34 Now that travel restrictions are being lifted, do you plan on traveling to Cuba in the near future? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba 28% 67% 5% Born in the U.S. 33% 57% 10% Yes No Don t know/no answer

35 35 Now that travel restrictions are being lifted, do you plan on traveling to Cuba in the near future? By Decade of Arrival (Among Cuban Americans born in Cuba) Before % 76% 5% After % 59% 5% Yes No Don't know/no answer

36 36 Now that travel restrictions are being lifted, do you plan on traveling to Cuba in the near future? By Age 18 to 29 38% 57% 5% 30 to 49 32% 65% 3% 50 to 64 39% 48% 13% % 84% 5% Yes No Don't know/no answer

37 37 Do you think that the U.S. embargo on Cuba should continue or should not continue? 44% 16% 40% Should continue Should not continue Don't know/no answer

38 38 Do you think that the U.S. embargo on Cuba should continue or should not continue? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba 45% 38% 17% Should continue Should not continue Born in the U.S. 25% 63% 12% Don t know/no answer

39 39 Do you think that the U.S. embargo on Cuba should continue or should not continue? By Decade of Arrival (Among Cuban Americans born in Cuba) Before % 32% 14% Should continue Should not continue After % 43% 18% Don't know/no answer

40 40 Do you think that the U.S. embargo on Cuba should continue or should not continue? By Age 18 to 29 31% 40% 29% 30 to 49 33% 58% 9% Should continue 50 to 64 36% 50% 14% Should not continue Don't know/no answer % 28% 15%

41 41 Do you think that the U.S. embargo on Cuba should continue or should not continue? By Voter Registration Status Registered Voters 44% 42% 14% Should continue Should not continue Non Voters 31% 50% 19% Don't know/no answer

42 42 Do you think that the U.S. embargo on Cuba should continue or should not continue? By Political Party Affiliation (Among registered voters) Democrat 18% 66% 16% Republican 70% 18% 12% Should continue Should not continue Don't know/no answer Independent/Other 31% 52% 17%

43 43 Do you think that the U.S. embargo on Cuba should continue or should not continue? By State of Residence Living in Florida 43% 41% 16% Should continue Should not continue Don't know/no answer Living in the rest of U.S. 34% 51% 15%

44 44 Do you think Cuba should be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism? 18% 22% 60% Yes No Don't know/no answer

45 45 Would you favor or oppose the establishment of a Cuban consulate in Miami? 60% 40% 50% 39% 20% 11% 0% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

46 46 Would you favor or oppose the establishment of a Cuban consulate in Miami? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba 44% 43% 13% Born in the U.S. 70% 27% 3% Favor Oppose Don t know/no answer

47 47 Would you favor or oppose the establishment of a Cuban consulate in Miami? By Decade of Arrival (Among Cuban Americans born in Cuba) Before % 52% 17% After % 35% 12% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

48 48 Would you favor or oppose the establishment of a Cuban consulate in Miami? By Age 18 to 29 69% 24% 7% 30 to 49 57% 35% 8% 50 to 64 56% 34% 12% % 56% 17% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

49 49 Would you favor or oppose the establishment of a Cuban consulate in Miami? By State of Residence Living in Florida 41% 46% 13% Living in the rest of U.S. 67% 24% 9% Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer

50 50 Once relations between the United States and Cuba are normalized, do you plan to invest in Cuba? 100% 80% 75% 60% 40% 20% 12% 13% 0% Yes No Don't know/no answer

51 51 Once relations between the United States and Cuba are normalized, do you plan to invest in Cuba? By Age 18 to 29 33% 57% 10% 30 to 49 6% 74% 20% 50 to 64 9% 70% 21% 65+ 8% 91% 1% Yes No Don't know/no answer

52 52 If freedom and democracy were re-established in Cuba, would you return to Cuba to live or would you stay and live in the United States? 3% 9% 88% Return to Cuba Stay and live in the U.S. Don't know/no answer

53 53 If freedom and democracy were re-established in Cuba, would you return to Cuba to live or would you stay and live in the United States? By Country of Birth Born in Cuba 12% 84% 4% Return to Cuba Stay and live in the U.S. Born in the U.S. 96% 4% Don t know/no answer

54 Demographics 54

55 55 Age 29% 18% 26% 27% and over

56 56 Gender 48% 52% Female Male

57 57 Country of Birth 24% 76% United states Cuba

58 58 In what year did you come to the United States from Cuba? Asked only of those who were born in Cuba 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 35% 1960s or before 11% 23% 16% 14% 1970s 1980s 1990s After the year % Don't know/no answer

59 59 State of Residence 35% 65% Living in Florida Living in the rest of U.S.

60 60 Voter Registration Status 34% 66% Registered Voters Non Voters

61 61 Political Party Affiliation Asked only of registered voters 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 35% 47% 16% 1% 1% Democrat Republican Independent Other Don't know/no answer

62 62 Language of Interview 55% 45% English Spanish

63 For additional information on this study or the firm, please contact: Fernand Amandi Managing Partner 3250 Mary Street, Suite 403 Miami, FL